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New Developments Signal the Cascading Collapse of the Oromo-Led Government

November 28, 2023

Yonas Biru, PhD

Three important political and economic developments in just as many days signal the rapid collapse of the Oromo-led government. The most important development is a legal one. The Ethiopian Lawyers’ Association filed a war crime complaint with the Ethiopian Federal Police Commission Crime Investigation. The accused are Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Defense Minister Abraham Belay Bereh, Field Marshal Berhanu Julla, General Abebaw Tadesse and Ato Temesgen Tiruneh. The complaint includes the use of drones and weapons of mass destruction against civilians in Amhara, Oromo, and Tigray tribal homelands.

This is the most significant development since the armed uprising of Fano. The Fano opened a crack in the proverbial floodgate. The Lawyer’s Association widened the crack, signaling the beginning of the end of the Boy King’s kingdom. What the Boy King is doing is no different from what got Putin indicted for war crime and crime against humanity. If there is a difference, it is a difference of degree not of kind as far as international law is concerned.

If there was a politically mature diaspora, it would have filed a similar complaint with the appropriate international court system and scale up its PR in Europe and America. Sadly, the Ethiopian diaspora consists of part tribalized and part zombified artifacts who are anti international intervention. Any proposal to leverage the international community encounters an avalanche of hoots of disdain from sleepwalking zombified hermits, led by a መተተኛ engineer in America and a ደብተራው professor in Sweden. አክስታችን ወንዝ እና አሜሪካ የማይጎትተው የለም ትል ነበር. That much I understand. What I do not understand is the Sweden phenomenon.

Tribalized Oromo intellectuals and their brethren hermitized Amhara intellectuals are in a rapid and heightened process of self-destruction. We need to confront this issue head-on to save Oromo intellectuals from the stupidity of Oromummaa and Ethiopia from Oromo intellectuals. Obviously, I am using the term intellectual in the most generous and most elastic sense of the term.

I apologize for digressing, but until Ethiopia finds a way to rein in its hermitized and tribalized intellectuals, the nation’s political wisdom and practice will continue to diverge, and its populace will never absolve itself from the vagaries of ignorance and the ensuing abject poverty, war, and self-destruction.

The other two developments are economic. First Pepsi ended its operations because of severe shortage of foreign exchange. One of the reasons that the Boy King visited Sheik Al Amoudi in Saudi Arabia was to plead with him to keep his business (Pepsi) open. The Sheik whose properties were claimed by corrupt officials in the Oromo tribal land was not receptive. The business is closed, leaving 8000 employees out of work.

In the meantime, the French telecom firm, Orange Telecom, withdrew its offer to purchase up to 45% stake of Ethio Telecom. The company stated: Current conditions in Ethiopia “do not allow for the rapid deployment of [its] strategy and the completion of a project that would create value for the company.”

The failure of the nation was magnified this week when a soccer MVP player was awarded a trophy. The award ceremony was orchestrated and covered in the news. The trophy was a gallon of cooking oil and half a bag of rice. If the narcissist and sociopathic Prime Minister lasts another year, the trophy will be a human skull. It is not without reason I have said in the past Political Oromummaa is a path to a primitive social order.

The nation is dissolving from inside out and the Oromo Boy King is talking shit about acquiring seaports and the diaspora is sleepwalking not knowing which century it is living in. My grandmother was only 50% right (at best) when she said: “God Protects the Blind and Ethiopia.” She may be right about the bind. If God had any intention to protect Ethiopia, he would not have hermitized and zombified its intellectuals.

Rumor is swirling that the Boy King wants to negotiate with Fano. I maintain Fano should not close the door for negotiation. But it must demand fool proof guarantee to make sure the Boy King will not continue to play God and his evangelical ጠንቇይfied fortunetellers and palm readers are kept out of the political landscape.

Above all, one demand that Fano must insist on is having an unfettered international investigation of war crime and crime against humanity. The investigation must be time bound and Fano and others must have a voice in the selection of international investigators. All those who were involved in war crime and crime against Humanity in Afar, Amhara, Tigray and Oromo Benishangul, Gambela, tribal lands must be held accountable.

በፍላጎትም ይሁን በስህተት ካጠፋሁ ይቅርታ

Remember: To Err is Human to Forgive is Divine.

1 Comment

  1. “Collapse of the Oromo-led government” because of three “important” political and economic developments? Are you kidding me? I’m raising this doubt not because I like the government to stay in power, but simply because your assessment is unrealistic if not utterly wrong. I remain vigilant rather than get content with false hopes.

    First your factual hyperbole. “The Ethiopian Lawyers’ Association filed a war crime complaint with the Ethiopian Federal Police Commission Crime Investigation.” In the news I read about such compliaint which I believe you also read, there is no reference to Ethiopian Lawyers’ Association as complainant. You can check the news again, the signature and the stamp suggest something different.

    I guess people learned in the law will not try what’s reported in the news. Lawyers know that the Ethiopian Federal Police Commissionis (EFPC) is not independent institution with the power to receive and investigate crimes againt the government and its officials. It’s not Australian federal police, U.S. (FBI), Belgian or Finnish police which have such power. One time legally accountable to the Ministry of Federal Affairs, EFPC has been made (after amending the law) accountable to the prime minister (PM). It’s unimaginale to see EFPC investigating the PM and his officials. It’s like a criminal investigating his own crime. Even submitting such a compliant means jail if not something more serious. Such action needs change of government. Confirmation of this fact is available in our own history.

    This does not, however, mean the government officials cannot be investigated and charged out of the country while they are still in power or after they left the government. There is International Criminal Court (ICC). Ethiopia is not a party to the treaty creating the Court, but there is a possibility the Court can initiate investigation and lay charges. Such a measure, though it might not end up in the arrest of officials, it can make them sleepless about their crimes, even make them to think twice before committing other more. Kind of a deterrence. Furhtermove, with investigation hanging over their head, they might not travel out of the country for fear of arrest.ICC is a respected institution and with a file open at the court, no suspect is welcome in any country.

    Those of you in the U.S., you can get an official suspected of a crimal act investigated and even charged if he – she is presnet in the U.S. soil. It does not matter if he- she is in the country for a short visit or on study provided physiacal presence it met. A victim or a family member of a victim back home can initiate the process. One case will send good message for criminals.

    Such efforts out of the country might awakenlawyers in the country from their sleep. Some of us expected them to sue Oromia regional government on behalf of the hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of Amharas killed and disabled, robbed of their land and other property, dispalced in the region. I’m talking about a class action on the Oromia government by Amhara victims for official apology, compesation and reinstatement. The government has a legal duty to protect them which it miserably failed to fulfil. Lawyers can still bring this action.

    Dr. Yonas Biru’s hyperbole that the government is to collapse because lawyers filed a complaint to the police should not be taken literally. It’s a wishful thinking, but a good one to wake the sleepy lawyers in the country.

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