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Today: June 19, 2024

Why You Shouldn’t Give Up on Negotiating a Settlement Just Yet

May 17, 2024

Yonas Biru, PhD

 

My earlier brief comment on Lidetu Ayalew’s proposal for a transitional government ignited varied reactions from different quarters. His proposal was titled “ምን ዓይነት የሽግግር ሒደት? ለምን እና እንዴት? Loosely translated: “The Need for a Transitional Government: Why and How?”

 

My rejoinder was titled “The Odds Stand Infinitely Against Lidetu’s Proposal for a Transitional Government.” Lidetu’s proposal is a google search away. So is my rejoinder. The purpose of this article is to show Transitional government has become a sexy name for an inevitable armed conflict. The danger lurking behind Lidetu’s proposal is that on its face value it appears to be a form of a peaceful engagement. Realistically, it lends itself to an inevitable armed conflict.

 

Lidetu’s proposal identifies three doers and makers who can potentially translate the proposal into reality, namely the Prime Minister (PM), the governing Prosperity Party (PP), and the opposition. For those who are new to Ethiopian politic, the PM is a power-thirty narcissist and psychopathic maniac. The PP as a governing body exists between neither and nor in the nation’s supposedly independent legislative hinterland. The opposition is stuck in strategic paralysis. While acknowledging the defects and blemishes of the three forces, Lidetu still states that “እነዚህ ሥስት አካላት አገሪቱን ወደ አዲስ የሽግግር ሂደት የማስገባት እድል ያላቸው ኃይሎች ናቸው.”

 

The transition proposal has four pillars to stand on.

  • ከዚህበኋላ ለኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ የሽግግር መንግሥት ማቋቋም አንድ አማራጭ ሳይሆን የግድ ልንተገብረው የሚገባ የመጨረሻና ብቸኛ አማራጫ ሆኗል።
  • በአገራችንመካሄድ ያለበት የሽግግር ሒደት ዘላቂ የተኩስ ማቆም ስምምነት ላይ ለመድረስ የሚካሄድ ድርድርን፣ የሽግግር መንግሥት ከመቋቋሙ በፊት የሽግግር ቻርተር ለማውጣት የሚካሄድ ሒደትን [መቀበል ይኖርበታል].
  • ሁሉን-አቀፍየሽግግር መንግሥት የማቋቋም አስፈላጊነት ላይ መስማማትን የሚያካትት ሊሆን ይገባል። እነዚህ ስምምነቶች በሙሉ አሁን በስራ ላይ ላለው ፓርላማ ቀርበው እንዲፀድቁ ይደረጋል።
  • በአሁኑወቅት በሥልጣን ላይ የሚገኘው ገዥው ፓርቲ ለሽግግር ሒደቱ መፈጠር ፈቃደኛ በመሆን መንግስታዊ ስልጣኑን [ለመልቀቅ ይስማማል].

Lidetu’s proposal gives the PM a 0% likelihood to accept any of the above. Obviously, if the probability that the PM will relinquish power voluntarily is zero, and if Lidetu’s proposal is predicated upon his removal from office, the unsaid option is his removal by force or by the PP legislative action.

Lidetu gives the PP a 10 percent probability to act in support of a transitional government and 20 percent to the opposition. What is the likelihood for the probability of the two independent forces to act together in support of a transitional government? The formula statisticians use is Probability (PP ∩ opposition) = the probability that the PP will seize the moment multiplied by the probability that the opposition will rise to the occasion. This means 10% multiplied by 20% or 0.1*0.2. This comes to 0.02 or 2%.

 

If one includes the PM in the equation, the probability of success for Lidetu’s proposal becomes a flat 0%. Even if we take out the PM from the equation, the probability of success is 2%. This is what quantitative statistics tells us based on Lidetu’s figures.

 

Based on the probability that Lidetu attaches to the two forces, it is plausible to assume only the opposition can be counted upon to push for a transitional government. This means, the opposition will have to force both the PM and PP out of the way.

 

Lidetu is not the only one who proposes a transitional government without tackling the implications of the calculus of consent of the PM and PP alike. The Imbylta Group’s “A Citizen-Centered Roadmap for Systemic Political Transition in Ethiopia” suffers from similar handicap.  The same is the case with Aklog Birara’s recent article titled “What Do Ethiopia and Vietnam Have in Common.”

 

Aklog suggests “it is time for a transitional government of national unity.” In the meantime, he suggests: “On their part, the country’s quarreling elites and the Ethiopian people must set aside minor differences, come together, and overhaul the oppressive system that keeps them divided, suspicious of one another…”

 

My reading of the three proposals (Lidetu, Imbylta and Aklog) is that they are no more than a wishful thinking and mighty short on developing the mechanics of the transitional process. It appears to me that the only current opposition that has the potential (albeit limited) to give life to a transitional government is Amhara Fano. But Amhara Fano has its own debilitating handicap. More on this below.

 

The Quest for “What Is in It for Me” in the Transition Calculus

 

The Prime Minister who is all but king for life in the late Bokassa mold is running the country as his personal property. The fact that he is the kingpin of the nation’s institutional corruption is a public secret.

 

How much of a cut he personally takes from secretive financial dealing with the UAE and China and what he is selling to them in return is known only to him. Parliamentarians who dared to ask him about his hush-hush transactions are currently languishing in prison that the US described as “harsh and life-threatening conditions.” The reason he axed the report his Anti-Corruption Commission prepared is that it included members of his cabinet and PP leaders in his close circle. The report was leading traces to the PM himself.

 

When we talk about transitional government, the overriding question to the PM is “what is in it for me.” The answer is nothing of value. In fact, it robs him of his access to the National ATM machine. It also comes with a potential cost of accountability for the crime his administration has committed in Tigray, Oromo, and Amhara and other tribal homelands. His secretive financial dealings will also be exposed. Short of a godly miracle, the only viable option to institutionalize a transition government requires dragging the PM out of office dead or alive.

 

How about the PP of the legislative branch that Lidetu expects to act in terms of (1) reliving the PM of his power, (2) legislating a transition charter, (3) declaring a ceasefire, and releasing political prisoners, and (4) ultimately hand over power to a transitional government. Remember these are the same legislators who clap and laugh as the PM insults them on national TV. These are people who see the PM as kindergartners see their teacher with awe and reverence.

 

For all practical purposes, they have accepted the PM as equal to ስላሴዎች with the divine power of being አንድም ሶስተም. Lidetu acknowledges this and gives them 10% likelihood that they will respond to the call of country.

 

Their lack of courage and sense of duty aside, they, too, operate with “what is in it for me” rent-seeking calculus. Lidetu assumes self-preservation will lead them to jump the PM’s ship and join the opposition. This undermines four critical points.

 

First, the transitional government will require the PP colony to relinquish their positions and their access to a super-lucrative rent seeking enterprise.

 

Second, if they try and the transition fails, the cost to them is exorbitant. They know the psychopathic PM enough what a failed attempt entails in terms of life and limb. Part of the reason he took his cabinet members and the speaker of the House of Representatives to Nekemte is to show them his Oromo powerbase even in Wellega, the supposed home of Oromo Shene.

 

Third, their Shakespearean “to do, or not to do” calculus includes taking into consideration that the opposition is too fragmented, weak, and bereft of broad political powerbase to rely on.

 

Fourth, Lidetu ignores the role that the army plays. The PM has made the military part of the rent-seeking enterprise. Many of the generals whose official salaries are meager are building high-rises and villas in Addis Ababa. They know if the PM sinks, they, too, will sink.

 

When one takes the PM, the PP, and the army out of the transition equation, the only thing left is the opposition. The only way the opposition can enforce a transitional government is using armed insurrection. In sum, when stripped of its unrealistic assumptions, Lidetu’s proposed transition is inevitable to turn into an armed insurrection. Lidetu is an advocate for a peaceful resolution nut his omission of key variables in the cost-benefit analysis of the calculus of consent place him in the war enterprise.

 

Do Not Close the Door on Negotiated Settlement Just Yet

 

There is simply no peaceful path for a transitional government. As I have written before, ኢትዮጵያ አንጀቷም፤ ድርና ማጓም፤ የስሪት እሴቷም ሳስቷል. The next political crisis may break her.  Anyone who understands the risk for a civil war understands the risk for total disintegration.

 

Lidetu suggests there is 70% chance of “ከህልውና ጥፋት መትረፍ ያለመቻል” [an existential disintegration of Ethiopia as a nation]. It is not clear how he came up with the 70% figure. Even if one accepts the 70% figure on face value, the risk is high and alterative options need to be investigated. In this regard, I am not sure of the wisdom in Lidetu’s assertions that that transitional government is “የመጨረሻና ብቸኛ አማራጫ.”

 

Given the impending existential threat of national disintegration, Ethiopians should not give up on a negotiated settlement as one of the possible options. In my view it has a higher probability of success and a lower potential cost than an unrealistic transitional government.

 

I support Fano’s armed uprising. But it should not be seen as the only means for a transformative change. Armed insurrection must also be seen as a strategic leverage to push the government toward negotiated settlement.

As I have highlighted in my Proposal for Fano Manifesto (August 2023), Fano is faced with the tension between two conflicting end-goals. First is its uncompromising position for self-preservation and democratic rights, while being cognizant and careful not to allow the crisis turn into a civil war. Second is its determination that a potential civil war should not mean allowing the current status quo to continue without a transformative change.

 

The question that is imposing itself on them is: How do we delicately balance this tension? The need to avoid a civil war requires it, and the nation’s survival and political transformation depend on it.

 

The opposition must stress that its demands are to: (1) reining in the government’s dictatorship and rampant violation of human rights, (2) holding those who were involved in crime against humanity accountable, and (3) enforcing a democratic constitutional reform by “we the people of Ethiopia.”

 

Reigning in the government requires guardrails to make sure that:

 

  • all democratic rights will be observed and honored,
  • the government aggress to withdraw its disarmament demand until confidence building measures are taken to protect victims of the government,
  • the government will not use the lull time to regroup and launch another round of war on the people,
  • the government will grant international human rights violation investigators an unfettered access without any restriction or interference on their investigative undertakings,
  • the government allow international observers and the opposition to monitor the preparation and undertaking of the next elections, and
  • the government and the opposition will jointly form a constitutional drafting commission through a democratic means.

 

Such a position will disarm the PM of his political narrative that the opposition is trying to overthrow a duly elected government. It will also help the opposition to win the confidence and support of national and international forces.

 

Fano Must Step Up Its Game

 

Two factors determine if the opposition can drag the government to the negotiation table and force it to accept institutional gridlines that will reign in the PM’s innate dictatorial instincts. The first critical step is Fanno’s ability to develop a unifying Amhara political agenda along with a robust political strategy and flexible roadmap. The second critical step is developing a national agenda and a broad coalition with non-Amhara forces.

 

Anyone who believes Fano can form a winning coalition and bring the PM to his knees without a well-developed political strategy and a broad coalition is an emblem of political idiocy. Fano’s success in this regard depends on its willingness and ability to reject the idiotic diaspora Amhara Shene intellectuals. አያታችን ድዳምን ድዳም ካላሉት በግጋም ይስቃል ይሉ ነበር.

 

Saving the PM v. Saving Ethiopia

 

Proponents of removing the PM by any means necessary argue that any form of transitional government that can potentially keep the PM will save him from accountability and therefore must be rejected. First, as long as there is an unfettered international investigation, accountability can be established. This means the PM can be held accountable either through a judicial process or via a truth and reconciliation process following South Africa’s model.

 

Second, Ethiopians must balance the need to save the nation from an escalating civil war and the desire to see the PM being dragged out of office and into a dark prison cell that he has built and used to house his opponents.

 

Those who by omission or commission push for an armed conflict bear responsibility to show Ethiopians a clear path to avoid an existential civil war.  Diaspora intellectuals who are pushing for war without a clear path to a transformative change and guardrails to avoid an existential civil war are no less reckless than the PM who is pushing the nation toward a civil war.

 

In Conclusion

 

Armed uprising is justified to protect Ethiopia from a psychopathic and maniac PM. It is also justified as a leverage to force a peaceful resolution. Only when the government rejects all efforts toward a peaceful resolution, can Ethiopians use war as the only option. However, they should never give up on a negotiated settlement as a better option because it is less costly to the people. Closing the door for a negotiated settlement is reckless. Failing to leverage war as a tool toward a negotiated settlement is a strategic blunder.

 

7 Comments

  1. Brilliant indeed.
    What could lead our country to it’s demise is the arrogance and ignorance the pseudo-intellectual community that sings ግፋ በለው for eternity.
    Dr. Yonas, your unfettering intellectual push is of high value. I wish the pseudo-intellectual community stops and consider it and join your side. Kudos to you

  2. Your argument exudes solid empirical foundation. Fano, which has solid support base in the Amhara region, in Addis Ababa and increasingly in other parts of Ethiopia, is proving itself a power to contend with. Foggy Bottom as well as EU are aware of it more than ever before.

    Given the evolving political dynamic, it’s high time the vision and path of Fano get urgent redress, leadership enhanced with able and representative talents and horizontal relationship with stake holders commenced leading the way to a “ Consensus National Conference”.

  3. This is no more than delusional daydreaming. All these so called opposition parties have no teeth to force a duly elected government with near unanimous public support and with immense power to the negotiating table. Pseudo intellectuals like yourself and Lidetu can wax poetic about your half baked ideas but none of it is moving the needle.

  4. Thank you Dr. Yonas Biru, PhD, for sharing your thoughts.
    As I posted in my response to Dr. Suleiman Walhad, the basic instinct that helps us escape death or injury and keeps us alive is that of self-preservation! It is what animals use to survive and thrive. But with a much more advanced brain a human being creates all sorts of devices and strategies which protect him but also may, in the end, get out of control and be harmful to himself and others! Today, Ethiopia is full of examples of such creativities! Take the TPLF as an example: their leaders were very intelligent and strategic in their plans. Appreciating that as a minority ethnic entity, to maintain political dominance they needed to divide the rest of the country along ethnic lines, and with all sorts of promises and rewards for the leadership of the regions they maintained dominance for nearly three decades. But look at what is left behind in Tigray today – wars, deaths, poverty, homelessness, disease, hopelessness. I remember sharing on this portal an open letter to PM Meles Zenawi in 2008, asking him to look in the eyes of his family ask himself “What kind of nation am I leaving for my family?”

    Today, about 71% (92 million) of Ethiopia’s population were born during or after the divide-and-rule TPLF regime. Their survival instincts and strategies are to a large extent what TPLF instilled in a majority of the population. That instinct must be overcome to move the country forward, and I agree with Lidetu Ayalew’s proposal of a Transitional Government, but like all ideas, it needs to be debated on by people who are serious and determined to bring all Ethiopians together to build a lasting peace for all and the survival of the nation. Dependance on armed forces to solve the problem will, at best, be a temporary solution and at worst repeat of what the nation has been going through. That is not to say armed struggle is not necessary! The population has to rise up and demand for democratic change to save the nation. If the administration is not willing to heed the demands of the population, then it makes sense for the various armed forces joining hands to support the necessary negotiations to establish an Administration of National Unity or, as Lidetu put it, a Transitional Government.

    Human beings have made progress in every area of life by working together on Win-Win strategies whether at family, community, regional, national, or international levels. When all parties expect gains by putting their minds together to achieve a goal, everyone benefits and that acts as a catalyst for further corporation to achieve more! But what should we expect when communities turn against each other to win at the expense of others – the stronger one wins today, but the loser will come back and take revenge, and the cycle continues indefinitely, and we all know that! The TPLF subdued others and ruled, now Oromo PP feels it’s their turn! Amaras, rightly and strongly feel “Why should we allow ourselves to be subjugated and abused?” Like it or not most of the smaller ethnic entities feel suppressed but they are silent because they don’t have the numbers or the wherewithal to do what FANOs are doing today. FANO has sacrificed a lot in terms of loss of property, deaths of thousands, including innocent Amaras, internal displacements, famine, etc. If they succeed in defeating the Abyi Administration, what will be their goal and demand? Naturally, it will be taking power and replacing the current regime with one which will most likely be under their control, and that means repeat of cycle which the nation has been experiencing! Remember TPLF and EPRDF?

    Another thought which I shared on this forum is the fact that human history moves on a circular path, a bit like the hour-hand of a clock! At 12 o’clock life is wonderful – peace, wealth, growth, etc. but at 6 o’clock (20, 30,50, or 100 years later) it’s all mayhem – war, poverty, contraction, etc., and recovery begins to repeat the cycle. We have seen the cycles play in our lifetime – Emperor Haile Selassie era, Derg era, TPLF era, and now Prosperity (Poverty) Party era! What have we learned, and how are we using the knowledge we have gained to mitigate repeat of the same disasters Ethiopia has gone through! By the way, however well we do, the circular pattern of history does not change, but the trajectory changes into a spiral – forward one when progressive, and backward one when retrogressive!

    Today the whole world appears to be heading toward 6 o’clock. Powers that have dominated the world for the last century appear to be unraveling, and others which have been dominated for that period are rising up! Those of us who took refuge in the developed countries and benefited from their generosities must ask ourselves, what have we learned? Why are these countries so successful? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can we use the knowledge to guide our Motherland use the best principles we learned and avoid the dangerous ones which are now undoing those powerful countries? That way we help contribute to progress by working together! Differences of opinions are important and are the bedrock of progress, as long as the goal is the same – WIN-WIN!

  5. ወንድሞች ዘላለም፣ ይልማ፣ ቢንያምና ሰይድ፦
    ውይይት ጥሩ ነው። የቢንያም ስድብ ደግ አይደለም። ለተማርነውም ሆነ ላልተማርነው፣ ጨዋነት አንዱ የሁሉም ኢትዮጵያውያን ባህል ነው። ለተማረ ሰው፣ ምክንያት ሳይሰጡ ትችትም ራስን ማዋረድ ነው። ሰይድ ብዙ እያስተማረ ነው፣ ምስጋና ይገባዋል። ግን “Take the TPLF as an example: their leaders were very intelligent and strategic in their plans. ” ያለውን አልደግፍም።

    ወያኔ አስተዋይና ስልታዊነትን ቢያውቅ ኖሮ፣ በልቼ ልሙት ባይል፣ ኢትዮጵያን በከፋፍለህ ግዛው ዘዴ 9 ጎሣ በ9 ክልል አንግሦ፣ ከ83 ጎሳዎች ውስጥ 74 ጎሣዎች ለ9 ፈላጭ ቆራጭ ጎሣዎች ተገዢ አድርጎ፣ ሕገ መንግሥት በስም ዲሞክራሲያዊ በይዘት አምባገነናዊ አድርጎ፣ በስንት ትግልና መስዋዕትነት ከእናት አገሯ ጋር የተቀላቀለችውን ኤርትራን ራሱ ታግሎ አስገንጥሎና ኢትዮጵያን ወደብ የለሽ አድርጎ፣ ባለፉት 3 ዓመታት አውዳሚ ጦርነት ቀስቅሶ ትግራይን፣ አፋርንና አማራን አውድሞ፣ ዛሬም ከ 12 ወራት በፊት ትጥቅ እፈታለሁ ብሎ በፕሪቶሪያ የፈረመውን ጥሶ እንደገና ሰሜን አማራን መውረር ጀምሮ፣ መሪዎች አስተዋይና ስልታዊ አመራር አላቸው አልልም። ክስሕተት መማር የአስተዋይነት ምልክት ነው። ያን ግን ወያኔ ላይ አላይም። አማራ ዛሬ፣ ራሱን ለመከላከል፣ እንኳን ለወያኔ ለሌላም ወራሪ መብቃቱን ወያኔ አልተረዳም። ወያኔ በዛሬው የአማራ ወረራ የሚያተርፈው ወንድምና ወንድም አጋድሎ፣ ድህነትን ይበልጥ አስፍኖ ምናልባትም የራሱንም መውደም መጋበዝ ነው።

    ስይድ ከሰጠን ትምሕርት ትልቁና አንዱ ከስሕተተ እንማር የሚል ነው። የአንድ ቡድንና ምርኮኞቱ ሕገ መንግሥት፣ የአንድ ቡድንና ምርኮኞቹ አገር አከላለል፣ የተረኛነት አገዛዝ ዘላቂ ሊሆን አይችልም፣አልቻለም። ለአንድ ቡድን የተለየ ጥቅም የሚያስገኝ አገዛዝ፣ የአገዛዛ ሥርዓቱ በምንም ስም ቢሞካሽ፣ የሌላውን ኢትዮጵያዊ ጥቅም እንዳይጎዳ ካልተደረገ ዕድሜው አጭር ነው። ወደፊት ሁሉም ኢትዮጵያውያን እኩል ድምጽ ኖሯቸው የሚወስኑባት ኢትዮጵያን፣ ለሕዝባችን ሁሉ የትም አካባቢ ያለስጋት መኖሪያ የሚሆን አከላለ፣ በሕዝባችን ድጋፍ የጸደቀ ሕገ መንግሥትና ሙሉ በሙሉ ሕዝብ የሚቆጣጠረው መንግሥታዊ ሥርዓት መፍጠር አለብን። አለዚያ ማንኛውም የተከፈለ መስዋዕትነት ታጥቦ ጭቃ ነው።

    እዚህ ላይ የዛሬ 260 ዓመት አሜሪካን የመሠረቱ አባቶች የፌደራል ሕገ መንግሥት ለዓለምም መትረፉን፣ በደቡብ አፍሪቃ በ1986 ዓ.ም. የተደረገው የመጀመሪያው የአገሪቱ ዲሞክራሲያዊ ምርጫ ቢያንስ 94 በመቶ የአገሩ ነጭ፣ ጥቁር፣ ክልስና ሕንዳዊ ዜጋ ነጻና ፍትሐዊ ነበር ብሎ እንደመስከረለትና ዲሞክራሲያዊ ሥርዓት ለመገንባት ዘመናት ያሻዋል ለሚሉ ሰነፎች ወይም አስናፊዎች ዝም እንዲሉ መመዝገብ ጥሩ ነው። እኛም ለግልም ሆነ ለቡድን ጥቅምና ሥልጣን ካልተገዛን ልንደግመው እንችላለን። ወያኔ አስተዋይ አለመሆኑ አንዱ ምስክሩ የ1983 ዓ.ም. ለሕወሀትና ኦነግ አገዛዝ እንዲያመች ተብሎ የተፈበረከው ክልልና የተቀረፀው የጎሣ ሕገ መንግሥት ነው። አሜሪካ ከኢትዮጵያ 83 ጎሣዎች እጅግ በጣም የበዙ ጎሣዎች አሏት፣ ግን እየተዋጉ አይደለም። ዛሬ ያለው የጎሣ ክፍፍልና ያልበሰለው የጎሣ ሕገ መንግሥት ለማንኛውም ኢትዮጵያዊ ጎሣ፣ ለቀረጹትና ላጸደቁት በመውደምና በመራብ ላይ ላሉት ለትግሬና ኦሮሞም ጭምር፣ እንዳልጠቀመ ልብ እንበለው!
    ሰይድ፣ በድጋሚ የአክብሮት ሰላምታየ ይድረስህ!

    • ውድ ዓንዲኔት ማለቴ ምን ነበር፣”their leaders thought they were very intelligent and strategic in their plans.” በዚህ አንቀጽ መጨረሻ ላይ ወዴት እያመራሁ እንዳለሁ ያየኸው ይመስለኛል። እግዚአብሔር ይባርክዎ.

  6. Dear Said:-
    Many people I know try to tell me that Meles and his group were smart and Mengistu Haile Mariam was patriotic. The opposite is true in both cases. TPLF is responsible for the dreadful mess in Tigray and in the rest of Ethiopia today, and Mengistu created his own deadly mess which led to the transfer of power to TPLF. If Mengistu were a patriot, he would not have butchered so many, including a dozen key generals when EPLF was threatening Asmara and Massawa; he loved power much more than Ethiopia, and paved the way for Eritrea’s secession.

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