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The Amhara-Oromo-Tigray Conflict Nexus in Ethiopia: Challenges, Opportunities and a Way Forward

Prepared by Yonas Biru, PhD
September 2, 2023

The Ethiopian Constitution has trapped the people in a social dynamic that is anchored in an identityladen politics. The natural outcome is an innate gravitation of the political order toward centers of polarization. Of recent, Wolkait and Raya (W&R) have become the epicenter of the war theater in the Amhara-Oromo-Tigray conflict nexus. The conflict carries with it the seeds of a protracted war that is bound to draw Eritrea in. Three worrisome current developments need attention.

First, the W&R conflict can potentially become a battleground where long-fostering animosity and ill will between Amhara and Tigray reach the apex of a mutually destructive combat. Second, the danger is compounded by PM Abiy who is polarizing the conflict and seeking alliance with Tigray to thwart the Fanno uprising. This was manifested in a recent speech at the Mekele Stadium by a high-level Oromo official who called for Tigray and Oromo to unite and deal with their common enemy for once and for all. The official made sure the public knew that his speech was made at the behest of Shimeles Abdissa, the President of the Oromo region. Third, Getachew Reda, the President of the Tigray interim regional government has publicly stated Eritrea’s involvement is complicating the return of Wolkait to Tigray and expressed his administration’s readiness to help the Federal government fight what he called the Eritrea-Amhara alliance.

They say behind every dark cloud exists a silver lining. Since the Fanno uprising and revolt, changes in public opinion are fermenting, and voices of discontent are emerging from a growing undercurrent movement in the back alleys of the Amhara-Oromo-Tigray political nexus. These developments have opened a window of opportunity for change.

Read..More – AEPAC-Background-Materaial-on-Current-Ethiopian-Crisis-9.2.23-Final-Draft


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