Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD
2024-06-09
This section summarizes our discussion so far and focuses on what the vision of the long-term plan should be. It highlights the design flaws of the ten-year development plan and proposes an alternative vision for the country.
To sum up, the different parts of our discussion on long-term planning so far deal with the technical aspects of formulating a long-term plan. This includes:
- i) Identifying the development problems that need to be addressed, and understanding the time and spatial dimensions of these problems to see how issues vary over time and across different regions.
- ii) Conducting comprehensive contextual and situational analysis of the identified problems, such as macroeconomic and sector assessment, informal economy and addressing cross-cutting issues like productivity, gender, or the environment.
iii) Performing a SWOT analysis, followed by in-depth root cause analysis and needs assessments.
- iv) Conducting additional analyses as necessary, such as gap analysis, stakeholder analysis, policy analysis, impact analysis, and risk analysis.
- v) Carrying out further analyses important for planning and forecasting future developments, such as scenario analysis, model building, and trend analysis.
- vi) Performing analyses necessary for evaluating the viability and effectiveness of proposed solutions, including feasibility analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and cost-effectiveness analysis.
These technical analyses form the foundation for vision formulation, goal setting, and strategy identification in the development of a long-term national development plan.
A vision is a clear, inspirational, and long-term desired change resulting from an organization or country’s efforts. It serves as a guiding star, articulating what the organization or nation aspires to achieve in the future. For a long-term national development plan, the vision reflects the overarching aspirations and ultimate impact the country aims to accomplish.
Goal setting involves defining specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound objectives that align with the vision. Goals break down the vision into concrete milestones and targets that can be systematically pursued. In the context of a national development plan, goals translate the vision into actionable outcomes that guide policy and decision-making.
Strategy identification is the process of determining the best course of action to achieve the set goals. It involves analyzing various options, selecting the most effective approaches, and planning the implementation steps. Strategies provide a roadmap for achieving goals and realizing the vision, detailing how resources will be allocated and efforts coordinated.
It is after accomplishing these components—vision formulation, goal setting, and strategy identification—that we turn to the analysis of policy areas and intervention instruments. This stage often involves specialized experts in the respective fields, ensuring that the strategies are effectively translated into actionable policies and interventions.
In Part Seven, we will discuss the vision formulation of the long-term national development plan, taking the example of the ten-year development plan. It is stated that “The ten-year development plan lays a long-term vision of making Ethiopia an ‘African Beacon of Prosperity.’” This ambitious vision sets a high bar for the country’s development and aims to position Ethiopia as a model of economic success and social progress on the continent. The question is: Is this vision realistic and inspiring? Is this vision both achievable and motivational?
For a vision to be achievable, especially one as ambitious as becoming an “African Beacon of Prosperity,” it requires a thorough understanding of the country’s potential in relation to other African countries. This necessitates an in-depth comparative analysis, including analyzing competitive advantages, understanding external factors, evaluating policy effectiveness of other nations and identifying best practices. You do not find such kind of an in-depth comparative analysis in the ten-year development plan.
The vision “African Beacon of Prosperity” appears to be based more on political ambition than on a technical analysis of the long-term plan. Without grounding in rigorous analysis and practical assessment, it risks being irrelevant and unattainable. Additionally, it fails to be motivational. A vision should inspire and energize the people of the country, encouraging them to commit to and work towards its achievement. The Ethiopian people and youth desire to be free from incessant internal civil war and chronic poverty, rather than striving to be seen as “above” other people. They have significant challenges to address internally. The vision should reflect the priorities and pressing challenges faced by Ethiopian people
Given the current situation of the country, my view is that the vision should have an inward focus. When formulating a vision, the focus should be on a thorough self-assessment and root cause analysis of conflicts, poverty, scarcity, economic stress and strain rather than comparing with or judging other countries. This inward-focused approach ensures that the vision is both inspiring and attainable, grounded in the realities, needs and potential of the country.
Even if one has an inward-focused approach, still there remains a difference in approaches, emphasis and setting of priorities. Some old long-term plan contains a vision with the phrase “sustainable, equitable, and prosperous society”. These terms are overused to the extent of becoming vague. I have an alternative vision which is more precise and actionable and this vision incorporates the effects of rapid population growth in the country.
I suggest the vision of the long-term national development of Ethiopia be “Creation of post-scarcity economy and thriving middle-class society by 2045”. This vision emphasizes the goal of eliminating scarcity, meaning that all essential resources (food, water, energy, healthcare, education) are abundantly available to everyone. It implies entrepreneurship building, market development, economic structural transformation, and spatial development. The aim here is to create a society where the majority of the population enjoys a middle-class standard of living. This involves not just economic growth, but also substantial upward mobility, widespread education, and job opportunities that allow people to achieve and maintain a middle-class lifestyle.
East Asian Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) moved a significant portion of their populations into middle-class status within approximately 20-30 years through rapid industrialization, export-oriented growth, and substantial investments in education and infrastructure. China has seen a dramatic rise in its middle class over the past 40 years.