RE: What Explains Biden’s Counterintuitive Policy on TPLF’s War on Ethiopia

1. A) if the US favors TPLF, why was it quiet during the first three weeks of the war?

You should know better Sir. Since when does the US get involved until they clearly see who has the upper hand in any battle anywhere in the world? I honestly think the US didn’t expect such a swift defeat given what TPLF has been feeding the state department and the whitehouse for decades. The TPLF has been flashing their “mighty” first class army, the kind the entire east African states couldn’t have reckoned with should anyone push and shove the TPLF; and Americans genuinely bought into the craps these thugs had been feeding them. So, it was a kind of “wait and see” approach on US’s part and before they knew it, the ethiopian defence forces surprised them. That simple.

1. B) if US’s strategic policy is to undermine Ethiopia’s interest vis a vis Egypt and to bring TPLF back to power, why do Egypt and TPLF spend millions on lobbyists? Why not sit and observe as the US implements its strategic goal?

Very easy. US’s foreign or even domestic policies hinge primarily on the tenets of lobbying. They lobby one another  left and right and get lobbied for practically everything in the society – from farming products, armaments to even cabinet positions within the whitehouse. That is the American way.  TPLF AND EGYPT, albeit very smartly, realized the value into lobbying and have been heavily lobbying them to achieve their desired goals. Basically, it was a symbiotic kind of relationship. No one in  Democratic America is immune to lobbying – from their president, senators to everyone in the media, etc. It simply is that is how they do their businesses. I chuckled, albeit sadly, over your mention of how Meles befriended with very notable individuals like Jeffrey Sachs and others. Meles was a street smart looter who could afford to wine and dine with lobbyists at the expense of impoverished Ethiopia. Don’t also forget Meles came to power with the blessings of lobbyists like Cohen and the general blessings of the USA. I don’t see the relevance here. Abiy was worrying what to feed his staff and didn’t have the luxury to even have a state visit until after he dealt with his countrymen/women in the diaspora. Meles and his gang of TPLF thugs have been busy lobbying with the west, east north and south over the 27 years they had been in power and you could imagine what they had been doing over these many years. Most of these thugs were ambassadors, military attaches and simply merchants of evil working against the interests of poor Ethiopia. It is a miracle the country is on its feet these days given how deep the tentacles of these evil people is well entrenched in the country. Sad in a way.

1. C) if the US’s interest was to avoid the creation of a united and strong Ethiopia or to break up Ethiopia into tribal components, why did it play a significant role in dethroning TPLF in 2018? There is no party that could have happily worked with the US to dismantle Ethiopia than TPLF.

Here you are right. I don’t believe it is in America’s best interest to dismantle or breakup Ethiopia; but it is to their strategic short and long-term interest to revive TPLF from the grave IF they can do it. Why? No government in the entire world can best serve US’s interest better than the TPLF given their 30 years track record with the US. The TPLF, willingly and with a smile on their faces, sacrificed our boys and girls in Somalia to safeguard the interests of Americans in exchange for billions of aid monies that went straight into the pockets of these thugs and their families; not to mention countless independent lobbyists like MICHAEL PLAUT. In a very bizarre way, it was a way of recycling the aid money back into the western coffers. ብዙ አያናግሩኝ ባደባባይ.

1. D)  Regarding Mr. Cohen and his nominating  the PM for the Nobel Prize.

Dr Yonas, yes, Mr Cohen had “buyer’s remorse” when it comes to TPLF. I am not sure if the rest of the state department or the whitehouse bought into that, however. In fact , President trump was actually pissed at the nomination of our PM for the Nobel peace prize. Mr Cohen, although influential by all stretches, had no impact on TRUMP’s policy on Ethiopia; or even that of Mr Biden’s.

1. E) The US knows that TPLF is the most hated party not only in the entire Ethiopia, but also in Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, and most of all Eritrea

I honestly think the whitehouse is misled by advisors like Mrs Susan Rice who was the close confidant of the late Meles Zenawi. And I honestly think Mrs Susan Rice believed wholeheartedly whatever TPLF had been feeding her over the years and mistakenly took these thugs as the shining  light over the east African horizon. Now that she is the close advisor of President Biden, she is given more of a strategic position in shaping up our country’s policy. BTW, the mighty USA doesn’t see and sift through strategic partners based on hate and love of indigenous citizens of respective countries. The US sees more into “what is in it for US”. Given the track record of the TPLF in best serving America’s interest in East Africa or Africa for that matter, I disagree with you that the US care less for whether djibutians, Erits or Ethiopians love or hate the TPLF.

1. F) whether or not the pressure on Ethiopia was ratcheted up under Biden; or when actually the pressure started is immaterial. The pressure is ongoing and it is not fair for a sovereign country to be pressured this deep. Mr Trump was actually openly “begging” Egypt to bombard our dam. That is more than pressure; it is rather utter disregard for the rule of law and collective security of the UN to which Ethiopia is one of the foremost signatories from inception.

2019. G) The US has been threatening Ethiopia to block US aid since December 2019. Why has it not done it? In fact, why has it been increasing its aid to Ethiopia? Remember the US DFC $5 billion was approved in April 2020, after Ethiopia rejected US’s foolish order not to start filling the dam.

Sir, you know very well the USA is very good at the carrot and stick approach towards international diplomacy. This ዶርሲሣ  is simply to test the waters and see how far can Ethiopia swim upstream. If Ethiopia manages to swim against the current and all odds, America is not foolish enough to lose its strategic ally that has been with her through thin and thick over several decades for the sake of demonic thugs that are bent on destroying their own communities let alone bring the country together. So, everything goes with the current and the US is simply watching the tide – that is all.

1. H) Why did the US pressure Ethiopia not to conduct its election, including with a stern threat to block funding, but accepted the election results after Ethiopia conducted its election as planned?

This is very easy as well. The US TOTALLY misunderstood the here and there ethnic tensions as a sign of total PM Abiy’s failure in governance. The culprit into this ethnic chaos and killings were non other than the TPLF. TPLF’s lobbyists ,well paid western media outlet figures, fake federalés of the merera/dawud coalition, the disgruntled shaleqa dawit have all been feeding them that the collapse of the Ethiopian government was imminent and there was no way on earth anybody in his right mind would vote for Abiy. They mistakenly took Abiy as some sort of dictator with narrow ethnic base and didn’t expect the turn out to be that massive and extremely peaceful irrespective of election hiccups here and there. When Ethiopia didn’t flinch and carried on with the election as planned and the result was authenticated by our own very independent NEB, the US had no choice but to ascertain the election as such – fair and credible. Now, the question is, who is AMERICA to tell a sovereign country not to hold election to begin with? That is the question scholars like you should question thoroughly. I understand the power of the mighty USA ; I am simply asking the question logically as a layman.

We do elections to appease our own democratic interests and stand on our own feet to move forward as a society and come out of poverty through our collective willpower. Pressuring us not to conduct election is not something we should be expecting from the most democratic super power on earth.

Finally, while you have raised so many valid issues that I agree with  wholeheartedly, I don’t agree with you on above points. I am also with you on your assessment of the movers of conspiracy theories in that it is really counter intuitive and unproductive for diaspora Ethiopians given the current political climate of the country. We need allies from all walks of life; most importantly,  the USA. We should also explore our options further east into Russia, China, India and Turkey. These countries seem to understand/respect our situation and in line with our cultural value systems – cooperation through mutual respect. We are sovereign ancient country for crying out loud and we should be accorded the respect we deserve as a sovereign entity. Enough is enough. All these mistreatments and ridiculousness are  thanks to what the TPLF has put us through over the last 30 years. You are old enough to remember during the emperor’s era Dr Yonas. Do you ever remember Ethiopia this ridiculed and let down by the western elites or countries? It is very easy to judge the misguided diaspora or write a book on the inadequacies of the ABIY government. What you seem to overlook is that, the TPLF left the country with practically nothing in diplomacy, economic outlook, educational structure that the Abiy gov could tap into to carry the country forward. I am actually amazed by the strides the PM did over the last three years from nothing. The guy – the PM – couldn’t even afford to pay the salaries of his public servants at one point in his early tenure let alone afford lobbyists that are used to exorbitant payouts by the TPLF from looted resources. Thanks to the natural wit and quick thinking of the PM he could turn things around – let’s give credit where it is due.

I agree with your in that, few but very vocal diaspora are keen on archaic thinking of the politics of yesteryears; but vast majority including their foreign born kids are honestly serving as humble ambassadors of their native land when necessary and called upon. It is not only እንቶፈንቶና ቡቱቡቱቶ Dr Yonas. I always wonder, and given our numbers and know-how, it is very pathetic why we can’t come together in mass to move our country forward. The good PM needs our assistance, knowledge and expertise. He can’t do it alone. This is not about TPLF or any specific ethnic group. This is about Ethiopia and she is indeed stretching her hands onto God and her children to save her from the impasse she is currently engulfed in.

With Respect,

Abawirtu