How Isaias Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed Are Fueling a Long-Term Crisis in the Horn of Africa

By Tekle Gebremariam
July 26, 2025Once hailed as peacemakers and visionaries, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now stand accused of dragging the Horn of Africa into a protracted crisis. Their alliance, forged under the banner of regional harmony and post-war reconciliation, has turned into a military partnership marred by secrecy, suppression, and strategic violence.

In the process, they have not only devastated Tigray but have also destabilized Ethiopia’s fragile federal structure, isolated Eritrea further from the world, and turned “brotherhood” into a tool of conquest, not coexistence.

From Peace Accord to Pact of War

In 2018, the world watched with cautious optimism as Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki embraced in Asmara, ending two decades of bitter enmity between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The rapprochement was swift, dramatic, and earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

But the glow faded quickly. Many now argue that the peace deal was less a turning point for democracy and more a calculated maneuver against a common enemy: the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had long dominated Ethiopian politics before Abiy’s rise.

For Isaias, the TPLF represented the architects of Eritrea’s post-independence isolation and Ethiopia’s border conflicts. For Abiy, they were a powerful internal opposition resisting his centralizing reforms. What united the two leaders was not a vision for peace—but a mutual desire to cripple a shared adversary.

The War on Tigray: An Alliance of Silence and Blood

In November 2020, the Ethiopian government launched a military operation against Tigray, justifying it as a law enforcement action. Soon, Eritrean troops joined the campaign, crossing the border and operating deep within Ethiopian territory—an unprecedented development for two formally sovereign states.

Reports from international organizations and independent observers detail widespread atrocities:

• Mass killings of civilians in places like Axum.

• Sexual violence used as a weapon of war.

• Blockades that led to famine-like conditions, with hundreds of thousands at risk of starvation.

Despite repeated denials, Eritrea’s involvement was eventually confirmed. But neither leader showed remorse. Instead, they doubled down, portraying criticism as foreign interference and using wartime rhetoric to silence dissent.

Authoritarianism in Tandem

The war revealed an uncomfortable truth: both Abiy and Isaias have more in common politically than their peace award might suggest. Isaias Afwerki has ruled Eritrea without elections, a constitution, or free press since independence in 1993. Abiy, once seen as a reformer, has increasingly mirrored autocratic tendencies:

• Mass arrests of journalists, activists, and critics.

• Internet blackouts and media suppression.

• Ethnic profiling and militarization of civilian life.

Their coordination reflects not democratic values but militarized governance, driven by surveillance, loyalty tests, and repression. Their unity has come at the expense of pluralism, human rights, and regional cooperation.

Regional Fallout: A Horn in Crisis

The consequences of their alliance go beyond Tigray. The entire Horn of Africa now faces renewed instability:

• Sudan has been drawn into border disputes and refugee crises.

• Somalia is caught between security partnerships and political pressures from Ethiopia and Eritrea.

• Djibouti, long a neutral actor, grows increasingly wary of being pulled into regional power games.

Meanwhile, internal conflicts continue to erupt across Ethiopia—in Oromia, Amhara, and other regions—fueled by grievances, arms proliferation, and a sense of betrayal. The dream of national unity that Abiy once promised has given way to ethnic fragmentation and endless cycles of revenge.

A Fragile Alliance Built on Vengeance

Despite the rhetoric of “brotherhood,” the Abiy-Isaias alliance is inherently unstable. It is built not on a shared vision for peace or prosperity, but on a mutual vendetta. History shows that alliances of convenience—especially those rooted in violence—do not last.

Isaias seeks to maintain his grip on power through perpetual war and Eritrean self-reliance. Abiy, facing domestic opposition and an economic downturn, relies on wartime nationalism to rally support and suppress dissent. Their alliance, while tactically effective in the short term, risks long-term collapse, leaving behind a fractured region, traumatized populations, and irreparable political damage.

The Path Forward: Truth, Justice, and Accountability

For the Horn of Africa to escape this downward spiral, both countries—and their leaders—must be held accountable:

• Independent investigations into war crimes must be supported and enforced.

• Displaced communities, especially in Tigray, must be resettled and compensated.

• Political reform, not military dominance, must be the path to long-term stability.

A sustainable peace requires more than ceasefires and secret deals. It requires addressing the root causes of conflict: exclusion, historical injustice, authoritarianism, and ethnic polarization.

Conclusion: Peace Demands Courage, Not Conquest

The story of Abiy and Isaias is a cautionary tale for the continent: that peace deals without justice can quickly become instruments of war; that applause from the international community can blind leaders to internal suffering; and that so-called “brotherhood” can turn into co-dependency in destruction.

If the people of Ethiopia and Eritrea are to reclaim their futures, they must rise above the ambitions of two men and demand a new political horizon—one built not on vengeance and fear, but on reconciliation, inclusion, and truth.

Because true brotherhood is not forged in war—it is proven in peace.