Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD
2024-07-19
The long-term national development plan we are discussing has extensive components: six overarching goals, 38 fundamental pillars, 114 objectives and 342 strategies. We need to create a detailed timeline and identify key milestones for the purpose of implementation.
A timeline is a chronological sequence that outlines when specific goals, pillars, objectives and strategies are to be completed over a set period. Timeline provides a structured schedule for the implementation of the various components and helps in organizing tasks in a sequential manner, making it easier to follow the plan. It also assists in allocating resources efficiently over time and track progress.
Key milestones are significant points or events in the long-term plan timeline that indicate the completion of major phases or deliverables. They serve as checkpoints to measure progress against the overall plan. Milestones allow for the assessment of progress at critical stages, helping to determine if the strategy, program or project is on track. Achieving milestones motivate stakeholders by providing a sense of accomplishment and momentum and serve as opportunities to review and make important decisions regarding the future direction of the plan.
Often criteria-based prioritization is used for identifying the time-line and milestones. This method is used to systematically rank and prioritize tasks, goals, objectives, or projects based on a set of predefined criteria such potential impact, urgency, feasibility, cost and interdependence. Each goal or objective is evaluated against these criteria to determine its relative importance and urgency. The purpose of criteria-based prioritization approach is to ensure that decisions are made objectively and resources are allocated efficiently.
The interpretation and application of criteria such as potential impact, urgency, feasibility, cost, and interdependence should reflect the country’s development level and capacity. For example, the potential impact should focus on economic structural transformation. The criteria of urgency should consider the basic needs of rapidly growing population. Feasibility should consider the institutional capacity and available resources of the country. The cost criteria should consider the fiscal capacity of the government, prioritizing low-cost, high-impact projects and sustainable financing mechanisms. Interdependency requires understanding of sectoral linkages, such as a focus on infrastructure that supports multiple sectors.
Phased approach to structure time-line and key milestones
In my study I tried to integrate criteria-based prioritization with a phased approach that also considers the country’s level of development and capacity. A phased approach to structuring a timeline and identifying key milestones in a long-term national development plan involves breaking down the plan into manageable phases, each with its own set of priorities, goals, and deliverables. This approach ensures systematic progress and allows for adjustments based on outcomes and changing conditions. I have no space here to discuss how the phased approach is integrated with criteria-based prioritization.
A phased approach allows for structured and strategic progression through different stages of national development, ensuring that each phase builds on the previous one. This approach organizes the implementation into phases, starting with foundational activities and progressing to more complex ones. Breaking down the overall plan into phases (specific time periods, each with its own set of objectives and actions) helps the long-term plan to be more manageable and allowing for progress monitoring. The question is what are the specific phases, the duration of each phase, and what kind of objectives and action each of them encompasses.
I identified the phases of the long-term post-scarcity economy plan using the analogy and fundamental stages of an aircraft’s flight: takeoff, climb, and cruise stages. These phases represent the core elements of an aircraft’s flight profile. They serve a distinct purpose for completing a successful flight (in my case the long-term national development plan).
I have broken down the six overarching goals, 38 fundamental pillars, 114 objectives and 342 strategies into three phases taking into consideration the needs and requirements each stage of an aircraft flight. These are: Takeoff Phase (Foundation Phase, Years 1-6), Climbing Phase (Expansion and Growth Phase – Years 7-16), Cruise Phase (Consolidation Phase – Years 17-25). For further discussion see All-in-One Platform for Creating a Post-Scarcity Economy of Ethiopia (pages 29-33).
Characteristics of Takeoff Phase (Foundation Phase, Years 1-6)
This phase lays the groundwork for future development by addressing the most critical elements of the economic structural transformation. It focuses on transforming the economic structure by modernizing agriculture, developing basic infrastructure, establishing a strong financial system, and building human capital. Emphasize industrial development to absorb labor from subsistence agriculture. This phase also considers the post-conflict reconstruction and recovery programs.
Pillar 2: Agricultural Modernization
- Shift from subsistence to commercial agriculture with improved productivity and value-added processes.
Pillar 3: Infrastructure Development
- Develop basic infrastructure to support economic activities, including roads, energy, and water supply.
Pillar 4: Human Capital Development
- Invest in basic education and healthcare to build a skilled and healthy workforce.
Pillar 5: Financial System Reform
- Establish a stable and inclusive financial system to facilitate economic activities and investment.
Pillar 9: Enhance Access to Capital
- Ensure that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and emerging industries have access to necessary financial resources.
Pillar 11: Reduce Regulatory Barriers
- Simplify regulations to encourage formalization and growth of businesses.
Pillar 27: Governance and Transparency
- Strengthen governance structures to enhance transparency, accountability, and reduce corruption.
Pillar 31: Accountability and Anti-Corruption
- Implement measures to combat corruption and improve public sector integrity.
Pillar 34: Access to Quality Education
- Enhance the education system to provide quality and relevant education for all, focusing on skills needed for economic transformation.
Pillar 35: Health and Well-being
- Improve healthcare services to ensure a healthy population capable of contributing to economic activities.
Pillar 1: Industrial Development and Diversification
- Lay the groundwork for industrial development, focusing on sectors that can rapidly absorb labor from subsistence agriculture.
Pillar 21: Balanced Regional Development
- Ensure equitable development across regions to prevent urban-rural disparities and support rural transformation.
Characteristics of Climbing Phase (Expansion and Growth Phase – Years 7-16)
This phase accelerate growth by expanding economic activities, enhancing human capital, and fostering innovation and technological advancement. It focuses on developing industries, promote trade and investment, foster entrepreneurship, improve infrastructure, and support balanced regional development.
Pillar 6: Trade and Investment Promotion
- Attract foreign and domestic investment and promote trade to integrate the economy into global markets.
Pillar 7: Fostering Sector-Specific Innovation and Productivity
- Encourage innovation and productivity improvements in key sectors.
Pillar 8: Increase the Number of Startups
- Support the creation of new businesses to drive economic dynamism and job creation.
Pillar 10: Expand Entrepreneurial Education and Training
- Provide education and training to support entrepreneurship and business skills.
Pillar 12: Increase Market Access
- Enhance access to domestic and international markets for businesses.
Pillar 13: Strengthen Business Support Services
- Provide support services to help businesses grow and thrive.
Pillar 14: Foster a Culture of Entrepreneurship
- Promote entrepreneurship as a viable career path and an engine for growth.
Pillar 15: Improve Infrastructure for Businesses
- Develop business-specific infrastructure such as industrial parks and technology hubs.
Pillar 16: Promoting Specialization
- Encourage industries to specialize in areas where they have a competitive advantage.
Pillar 22: Urban Planning and Development
- Develop urban areas to accommodate growing populations and economic activities.
Pillar 23: Rural Development
- Improve living standards and economic opportunities in rural areas.
Pillar 24: Infrastructure Connectivity
- Enhance connectivity between different regions and economic centers.
Pillar 25: Sustainable Land Use
- Promote sustainable land use practices to balance development and environmental protection.
Pillar 29: Capacity Building and Human Resources
- Develop human resources and build capacities to support economic activities.
Pillar 30: Public Sector Efficiency
- Improve the efficiency of public sector operations to support economic growth.
Pillar 32: Technology and Innovation
- Promote the adoption of new technologies and innovation across sectors.
Pillar 33: Economic Security
- Ensure economic stability and security to support growth.
Characteristics of Cruise Phase (Consolidation Phase – Years 17-25)
This phase ensures sustainable development by consolidating gains, maintaining stability, and enhancing resilience. Diversify the economy further, strengthen economic linkages, ensure social protection, and promote environmental sustainability.
Pillar 17: Promoting Diversification
- Further diversify the economy to reduce dependency on any single sector.
Pillar 18: Promoting Economic Linkages
- Strengthen linkages between different sectors of the economy to create integrated value chains.
Pillar 19: Promoting Value Chains
- Develop value chains to add value to primary products and create jobs.
Pillar 20: Promoting Clustering
- Foster the development of industry clusters to enhance competitiveness.
Pillar 26: Inclusive Housing and Community Development
- Ensure access to affordable housing and develop vibrant communities.
Pillar 28: Legal and Regulatory Systems
- Strengthen legal and regulatory frameworks to support economic activities.
Pillar 36: Housing and Urban Development
- Continue to develop housing and urban infrastructure to accommodate growth.
Pillar 37: Social Protection and Inclusion
- Implement social protection measures to support vulnerable populations.
Pillar 38: Environmental Sustainability
- Promote sustainable practices to protect the environment and ensure long-term growth.
Conclusion
A phased approach allows for structured and strategic progression through different stages of national development, ensuring that each phase builds on the previous one. This structured timeline with key milestones helps manage resources efficiently, measure progress, and make necessary adjustments to stay on track with long-term national development goals.
The approach using phases is differentiated from a more traditional, linear prioritization process by its structured, sequential nature and its emphasis on building progressively from foundational activities to more advanced and sustainable initiatives. The traditional linear prioritization approach focuses on a mix of immediate needs and long-term goals without a clear sequence. It tends to implement high-priority projects based on urgency or impact without a specific order of foundational, growth, and consolidation stages. It may engage stakeholders continuously but without a phased focus, which can dilute the effectiveness of stakeholder input for specific stages of development.
The phased approach to long-term national development is distinguished by its structured, sequential nature, which ensures a logical progression from foundational activities to more advanced growth and sustainability initiatives. This approach provides a clear roadmap for development, efficient resource utilization, enhanced monitoring and evaluation, and improved stakeholder engagement. By prioritizing objectives and strategies within each defined phase, this method addresses both immediate and long-term needs in a systematic and sustainable manner.
