From Fragmentation to Redemption: Scenarios, Strategies, and a Roadmap for Political Action
Sirak Zena
April 17, 2025
Table of Contents – Part Two
From Fragmentation to Redemption
VIII. Consequences of Elite Failure
- Potential Scenarios and Their Implications
- A Call to Action for Political Elites
- Theoretical Insights for Elite Cooperation in Divided Societies
XII. The Dual Face of Ethiopia’s Political Elite
XIII. Media, Social Platforms, and the Battle for Narrative Control
XIV. On Leadership, Legacy, and the Road Ahead
- Toward a New Political Culture: Ethics as the Missing Foundation
XVI. Conclusion: The Imperative of Unity in the Face of National Peril
References
Part Two: From Fragmentation to Redemption
Introduction
The first part of this article dissected the paralysis of Ethiopia’s political elites—their historical missteps, ideological entrenchments, and abdication of responsibility in the face of national collapse. Now, we focus on consequences and solutions, charting a path from fragmentation to potential redemption.
This section presents a comprehensive roadmap for political reform and democratic renewal. We begin by exploring the dire consequences of continued elite failure and outlining potential scenarios that could lead to national disintegration. Building on this urgency, we offer a call to action for political elites, particularly those in the diaspora, emphasizing their unique position to influence Ethiopia’s trajectory.
We then examine theoretical insights into elite cooperation in divided societies, providing practical frameworks to guide diaspora leaders in forging unity. The analysis extends to the role of media and narrative control in shaping political outcomes. It reflects on leadership, legacy, and the critical involvement of women, youth, and the diaspora in Ethiopia’s future.
Ultimately, this part advocates for a new political culture grounded in ethics and collective responsibility. It concludes with a powerful imperative for unity in the face of national peril, urging political elites to rise above their differences and work collectively toward Ethiopia’s salvation and renewal.
Through this exploration, Part Two aims to move beyond critique to offer a vision of possibility—a path that demands courage, cooperation, and an unwavering commitment to Ethiopia’s future.
VIII. Consequences of Elite Failure
The abject failure of Ethiopia’s political elites to rise above their petty interests and ethnic allegiances has precipitated a crisis of staggering proportions. Their inaction and missteps have contributed to the consolidation of autocratic rule and the nation’s instability. This section will lay bare the catastrophic consequences of their failure, serving as a damning indictment of their collective inadequacy.
A. Enablement of Autocratic Governance
1. Unchecked Power Consolidation
The fragmentation and ineffectiveness of Ethiopia’s political elites have provided fertile ground for the consolidation of autocratic power. As these so-called leaders bicker over ethnic spoils, the government has systematically dismantled democratic institutions and safeguards.
Aalen (2020) argues, “The opposition’s inability to present a united front has allowed the ruling party to tighten its grip on power with minimal resistance. This power consolidation has been facilitated, in part, by the opposition’s inability to present a united and effective front.
- Human Rights Abuses and Suppression of Dissent
The failure of political elites to serve as an effective counterweight to government excesses has led to a sharp deterioration in human rights and civil liberties. Extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and the suppression of free speech have become commonplace, while those who should be defending the rights of citizens remain largely silent or impotent.
Human Rights Watch (2021) reports, “The lack of a strong, unified opposition has emboldened the government to act with impunity in its crackdown on dissent.” Ethiopia’s political elite bear a significant responsibility for the suffering of those silenced and oppressed under the current regime.
- Economic Deterioration
Political elites’ myopic focus on ethnic interests and power struggles has come at the expense of the nation’s economic well-being. Their failure to articulate and champion a coherent economic vision has left Ethiopia vulnerable to mismanagement and external shocks.
The World Bank (2022) notes, “Political instability and ethnic conflicts have reversed years of economic progress, pushing millions back into poverty.” This economic freefall is a direct indictment of the political elite’s failure to prioritize the material needs of the Ethiopian people over their narrow agendas.
C. Escalation of Regional Conflicts
1.Tigray War and Its Aftermath
The catastrophic conflict in Tigray, marked by its appalling impact on human life and regional stability, represents a significant failure of governmental leadership. Political elites’ inability to take the correct position on this dispute or articulate a cohesive position against its intensification has resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe.
2. Ongoing Conflicts in Oromia and Amhara Regions
The intensifying conflicts in Oromia and Amhara regions underscore the federal government’s failure to address underlying grievances and implement inclusive governance. In Oromia, the government’s heavy-handed military responses to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have exacerbated tensions, leading to widespread human rights abuses. Similarly, in Amhara, efforts to disarm regional forces have sparked violent confrontations with groups like Fano, resulting in significant civilian casualties and displacement.
Compounding these issues is the troubling silence of political elites across the spectrum. Many have failed to advocate for victims of abductions, ethnic expulsions, and other human rights violations, particularly in Oromia and Amhara. This lack of consistent, principled engagement has allowed abuses to persist unchecked, eroding public trust and undermining efforts toward national reconciliation.
A more proactive stance from political elites is imperative. By unequivocally condemning human rights violations and advocating for all affected communities, regardless of ethnicity or political affiliation, they can begin to rebuild credibility and contribute to a more just and peaceful Ethiopia.
The International Crisis Group (2021) warns, “The escalation of conflicts across multiple regions threatens to tear the country apart, a scenario that could have been avoided with more responsible leadership.”
D. Increasing Risk of National Disintegration
Perhaps the most damning consequence of elite failure is the looming specter of national disintegration. The centrifugal forces unleashed by unchecked ethnic politics and regional conflicts threaten the very existence of Ethiopia as a unified state.
Ethiopia’s political leaders’ persistent inability to establish consensus and delineate a unified vision for the nation’s future has led it to the verge of collapse. This dire situation is not an accident of history but the predictable outcome of years of political malpractice by those who claim to lead.
The consequences of elite failure in Ethiopia are not merely academic concerns – they are matters of life and death, national survival or disintegration. Ethiopia’s political elites stand before history at a moment of reckoning. Their continued failure to act in the face of existential threats constitutes a profound dereliction of responsibility. The time for half-measures and ethnic pandering is long past – Ethiopia’s political class must either rise to the nation’s enormous challenges or step aside for those who will. However, this failure need not be final. There is still time to act.
IX. Potential Scenarios and Their Implications: A Nation on the Precipice
Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, teetering on the edge of an abyss. The failures of its political elites have brought the country to this precarious position, where the future hangs in the balance. This section will unflinchingly examine potential scenarios that loom on the horizon, each a testament to the catastrophic consequences of elite inaction and division.
A. Government Collapse and Resulting Chaos: The Unraveling of a Nation
The Ethiopian government meets all signs of state collapse. Signs of government collapse often manifest across various dimensions. Economic decline is a significant indicator, marked by persistent stagnation, hyperinflation, rising debt, and widespread unemployment or poverty. Political instability follows, with rampant corruption, loss of legitimacy, and challenges from armed opposition groups. Social unrest and fragmentation also signal collapse, as growing inequality, ethnic tensions, and declining civic trust erode societal cohesion. Additionally, institutional breakdown becomes evident when critical systems like law enforcement, judiciary, and public services fail, or when the state loses its monopoly on violence to militias or criminal groups. Finally, external factors, such as reliance on foreign aid or mismanaged wars, can exacerbate internal weaknesses and hasten collapse. These elements often interact in a vicious cycle, accelerating the deterioration of governance.
Imagine, if you will, the sudden implosion of Ethiopia’s central government, brought about by economic collapse and internal strife. This is not mere speculation but a real possibility if current trends continue unchecked. In this nightmare scenario, the very fabric of Ethiopian society would unravel at an alarming pace. Civil services would halt, leaving millions without access to healthcare, education, and clean water. The absence of a functioning central authority would create a power vacuum, prompting regional authorities to assert their independence. This would inevitably lead to the country’s fracturing along ethnic lines, with each region scrambling to secure its interests at the expense of national unity.
In the chaos that would ensue, armed groups would vie for control, plunging the nation into a multi-sided civil war of unprecedented scale and brutality. The resulting humanitarian crisis would dwarf even the horrors of the 1980s famine, with millions displaced, starving, and caught in the crossfire of competing factions. International aid organizations, overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster and hampered by security concerns, would struggle to provide even the most basic assistance.
The disintegration of central authority in Ethiopia would generate a power vacuum, potentially resulting in a more catastrophic conflict than the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
The elites who fail to prevent this catastrophe would bear a heavy moral responsibility for the suffering of millions
B. Success of the Oromo Liberation Army: The Spark that Ignites the Powder Keg
Consider the implications if the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) were to succeed in its military campaign and march on Addis Ababa. Far from bringing liberation, this event could trigger a chain reaction of violence and retribution nationwide. A violent backlash from other ethnic groups, particularly Amhara militias, would be almost inevitable, leading to intense urban warfare in the capital and other major cities. This conflict would quickly spread, resulting in mass displacement in mixed-population areas as communities turned against their neighbors in a desperate bid for survival.
Regional powers would likely intervene to protect their interests, and the success of the OLA would not go unnoticed. The economic consequences would be equally devastating. Foreign investors, already wary of the instability, would flee en masse. Critical infrastructure, including power plants, roads, and telecommunications networks, would be destroyed in the fighting, setting the country’s development back by decades.
A win for the OLA would not result in peace; instead, it would mark the beginning of a new phase of conflict that has the potential to be increasingly violent.
C. Rise of Amhara Fano: The Specter of Ethnic Domination
The situation becomes equally frightening if the Amhara Fano militias prevail. The outcome may foster the perception of an effort to reestablish a centralized, Amhara-centric governmental apparatus, reminiscent of ancient governing forms that have historically engendered anger among other ethnic communities. This action will undoubtedly provoke violent opposition, especially in Oromia, Tigray, and other regions with profound recollections of historical exclusion. The ensuing struggle may rapidly develop into an extended guerrilla war, culminating in catastrophic repercussions for civilians trapped in the crossfire.
Internationally, Ethiopia would face increasing isolation as it is branded an ethno-nationalist pariah state. Sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign aid would likely follow, compounding the country’s economic woes. The economy, already strained by years of conflict, would face total devastation as ethnic violence disrupts agriculture, commerce, and what remains of foreign investment. Rural areas, heavily dependent on agricultural production, would be particularly hard hit, potentially leading to widespread famine.
The rise of Fano alone would not resolve Ethiopia’s issues, but rather intensify them, potentially resulting in the nation’s fragmentation.
D. The Broader Landscape of Armed Resistance: A Nation in Fragmented Struggle
While the OLA and Amhara Fano have garnered attention, Ethiopia’s crisis extends beyond these groups. Numerous armed factions have emerged nationwide, each with its grievances and objectives. Though their struggles may not be as pronounced, they contribute to a complex diversity of resistance that threatens national stability.
These lesser-known armed groups represent a simmering undercurrent of discontent, highlighting the nation’s challenges. The potential for these groups to escalate their activities or form alliances with larger factions adds uncertainty and risk.
The Ogaden National Liberation Front’s (ONLF) apparent inclination to revert to armed struggle is not solely a national issue; it may also have geopolitical repercussions for the country.
Meanwhile, the situation in Tigray remains precarious. The Pretoria Agreement offered hope for peace, but its implementation faces significant hurdles. Concerns are growing that the government’s strategy of creating factions could lead to new problems. This approach risks reigniting tensions and potentially unraveling fragile peace.
One analyst notes, “The government’s divide-and-rule tactics in Tigray are a dangerous gamble. Instead of addressing root causes, they’re creating new fault lines that could explode into future conflicts with Tigray that may even involve neighboring Eritrea.”
This landscape of armed resistance and regional tensions illustrates a nation struggling against fragmentation on multiple fronts. It underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive, inclusive approach to peacebuilding that addresses the grievances of all regions and factions.
The proliferation of armed groups across Ethiopia serves as a stark reminder of failed governance and unaddressed grievances. It emphasizes fostering genuine dialogue, implementing equitable policies, respecting each ethnic group’s right, and building an inclusive national identity.
In this context, the role of political elites becomes crucial. They must rise above regional and ethnic allegiances to craft a vision for national unity that speaks to all Ethiopians, including those who have taken up arms in desperation. The challenge is immense, but the alternative—a nation splintered into warring factions—is unthinkable.
Considering these potential conflicts, it is clear that piecemeal solutions or region-specific agreements will not suffice. Ethiopia needs a holistic, nationwide approach to peacebuilding and reconciliation. Political elites, especially those in the diaspora, have a critical role in shaping this approach and preventing further fragmentation of the nation.
Parallel Paths to Peril: The Shared Risks of Ethnic-Based Military Solutions
The OLA and Amhara Fano scenarios represent above extreme possibilities, not inevitabilities. The outcomes in each scenario could occur in both cases, with little difference in their overall impact on Ethiopia. Whether the OLA or Fano gains the upper hand, the potential consequences—violent backlash, economic devastation, international isolation, and mass displacement—could unfold similarly. The key distinction lies not in which group prevails, but in the destructive pattern any ethnically driven military solution would likely follow. Ethiopia risks intensified ethnic tensions, humanitarian crises, and further national fragmentation. The path to stability and democracy cannot be achieved through the dominance of any single ethnic group; it demands inclusive, multi-ethnic political solutions based on dialogue, compromise, and a commitment to national unity that respects Ethiopia’s diversity. These scenarios warn against prioritizing military confrontation over inclusive political processes.
It’s essential to understand that both the OLA and Amhara Fano are engaged in their struggles to assert what they believe are their legitimate rights and to ensure their survival. These conflicts stem from deep-rooted grievances and concerns within their communities.
The Critical Role of Political Elites: A Last Chance for Redemption
In each of these nightmarish scenarios, the common thread is the catastrophic failure of Ethiopia’s political elites. However, even now, at this eleventh hour, these leaders have the power – indeed, the responsibility – to avert disaster. They must take immediate and decisive action to pull the country back from the brink. This requires setting aside long-standing ethnic rivalries and forming a united front for national salvation. It demands genuine dialogue to address grievances and forge a new social contract to accommodate Ethiopia’s diversity while preserving its unity.
Moreover, these elites must present a compelling alternative vision to unite Ethiopians across ethnic lines. This vision must offer hope for a better future of shared prosperity, equal opportunity, and genuine democracy. Concrete plans and a demonstrable commitment to implementation must back it. Perhaps most challengingly, political elites must work tirelessly to rebuild trust between communities and national institutions. This will require not just words but actions – transparent governance, equitable resource distribution, and a justice system that holds all accountable, regardless of ethnicity or political affiliation.
The stakes could not be higher. The decisions that Ethiopia’s political leaders make shortly will determine whether the country continues to exist as a cohesive state or eventually breaks up into ethnic enclaves that are at war with one another.
Many may doubt its occurrence, but it is poised to happen. These scenarios are the logical endpoints of the current trajectory that can still be altered. The political elites of Ethiopia face a moment of truth: rise to the occasion and save their nation or go down in history as the architects of its destruction. The fate of millions hangs in the balance, awaiting their decision.
In Ethiopia’s current climate, where some prioritize ethnic identity over national cohesion and agenda, it’s crucial to recognize that the nation’s survival is paramount. History demonstrates that when multi-ethnic states disintegrate, the resulting power vacuums often lead to prolonged conflict, economic collapse, and humanitarian crises. The dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, for instance, resulted in devastating wars and long-term instability. Ethiopia will suffer significantly if it disintegrates along ethnic divisions, given its great cultural and historical diversity. The path forward lies not in division but in building a shared national identity that respects and celebrates diversity while fostering unity. By prioritizing the nation’s integrity, we can work toward a future where all communities thrive in a stable and inclusive Ethiopia.
In this volatile environment, diaspora political elites may be the only actors with the freedom, access, and resources to alter Ethiopia’s trajectory. Unlike those inside the country, they are not subject to state repression, media censorship, or political imprisonment. Their unique position grants them the capacity—and the moral obligation—to mobilize international pressure, unify fragmented voices, and propose a viable path forward before it is too late.
The time to choose is now. The choice is stark: political unity or national disintegration.
X. From Reckoning to Responsibility: A Call to Action for Ethiopia’s Political Elites
In moments of national peril, political elites are called not to comfort but to courage—not to retreat into ethnic or ideological bunkers, but to rise to the demands of history. For Ethiopia, that moment is now. The country teeters on the edge of fragmentation, while its political class, especially those in the diaspora, remains divided, disjointed, and dangerously disengaged. If these elites fail to act decisively and in unity, they risk being viewed as ineffective in the face of national crisis.
A. Diaspora Leadership: From Privileged Distance to Patriotic Responsibility
Diaspora political elites—academics, former officials, veteran intellectuals, movement leaders, and community influencers—possess freedom, resources, and global networks unavailable to their counterparts inside Ethiopia. Nevertheless, with these privileges comes profound responsibility. As the homeland faces severe challenges, their lack of unity and decisive action reflects a missed opportunity to rise to a moment of national urgency.
These elites must:
● Form a united front across ethnic and ideological lines to demonstrate that cooperation is possible and necessary.
● Develop a shared transitional framework for Ethiopia, offering a credible alternative to autocracy and chaos.
● They will use their global access to shape international opinion, engage multilateral institutions, and advocate for diplomatic and humanitarian pressure on the regime.
● Establish a symbolic “Council for Ethiopian Unity” of respected diaspora leaders representing all regions and identities. This council would be committed to preventing state collapse and preparing for a post-crisis transition.
B. Embracing Trans-Ethnic Federalism: Governing Beyond Fragmentation
The current ethnic federal model has entrenched division and made national cohesion elusive. However, dismantling it without a viable alternative risks violent backlash. Ethiopia needs trans-ethnic federalism—a model that acknowledges ethnic identities but situates them within a national framework that ensures inclusion and interdependence.
Diaspora elites should:
● Convene comparative constitutional experts and local voices to draft a trans-ethnic federal charter for public debate.
● Propose ethno-linguistic representation with national safeguards, ensuring no group is excluded or dominant.
● Lead by example by organizing their alliances, parties, and platforms across ethnic lines.
As Messay (2018) rightly observes, “If one accepts the fact that ethnicity is now part of the Ethiopian political landscape but also wants to merge it with a non-ethnic national identity, the way to bring about this conversion is to design a political system such that ethnic politics gives birth to a trans-ethnic federal system.”
Professor Messay’s article inspired the author to work on trans-ethnic federalism and hybrid and presidential systems. We will soon post the article.
Recently, mentioning the presidential system has become taboo— “don’t talk about that”—because Abiy allegedly plans to transform himself from prime minister to president using the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission. We must not abandon what is vital to the nation’s progress just because the enemy wants to manipulate it; while the end may seem similar in name, the path we take and the form it takes will be distinctly different from that of the enemy.
C. Radical Transparency and Political Innovation
To regain public trust, Ethiopia’s opposition elites—especially in the diaspora—must outshine the ruling regime in rhetoric and values. This means embracing radical transparency and innovative accountability mechanisms that signal a clean break from Ethiopia’s political past.
Concrete steps include:
● Implementing a “glass house” ethic, where diaspora political actors publicly disclose partnerships and decision-making.
● Establishing a Truth and Responsibility Commission independent of government, to investigate past abuses, with diaspora elites pledging to abide by its recommendations.
● Creating a shadow unity government-in-exile that does not claim executive authority but serves as a moral and organizational counterweight to the current regime, offering coherent policy proposals and leading public engagement.
D. Re-engaging Veteran Intellectuals: Bridging the Generational Divide
The silence of the generation that once fought the Derge dictatorship with bold ideas and idealism is deafening. Many veteran Ethiopian intellectuals, now in the diaspora or retired, carry institutional memory, historical insight, and moral clarity that today’s fragmented opposition desperately needs.
Diaspora elites should:
● Create formal intergenerational forums for mentorship and strategic dialogue.
● Invite respected scholars and elders into advisory councils or think tanks that shape political direction.
● Document and circulate lessons learned from previous political struggles so the current generation avoids repeating tragic cycles.
Their re-engagement is not nostalgic—it is essential.
E. Naming the Betrayal: Intellectuals Who Serve Autocracy
While some intellectuals have retreated in disillusionment, others have gone further selling their intellectual integrity to justify and sustain authoritarianism. These individuals have become architects of propaganda, weaponizing academic and analytical language to defend state violence, ethnic scapegoating, and repression. From university chairs to government think tanks, they cloak tyranny in technical jargon and historical revisionism, eroding truth in the service of power.
It’s important to recognize that remaining neutral becomes challenging when the state is accused of severe human rights violations. Intellectuals who defend an autocracy involved in severe human rights violations and democratic regression bear a significant ethical responsibility for their actions. History will remember them not as scholars but as collaborators.
The diaspora must actively confront these toxic narratives, debunk the pseudoscientific claims that fuel ethnic supremacy, and reclaim the moral ground by standing for truth, justice, and accountability. Restoring intellectual courage—speaking honestly even when unpopular—must become a core principle of Ethiopia’s political renewal.
The path forward will not be shaped by declarations alone, but by the practical design of cooperation, the wisdom of theory, and the courage to reform political habits. The following sections explore these foundations, offering insight into how Ethiopia’s fractured leadership can build trust, navigate conflict, and lay the groundwork for national renewal.
Bridging Divides and Building a Common Front: A Strategic Imperative
Ethiopia’s political elites remain deeply fragmented, engaged in protracted debates concerning historical narratives, constitutional frameworks, territorial delineations, and the enduring legacy of ethnic federalism. While these issues are significant, they do not warrant the continued paralysis that has allowed the nation to spiral into chaos. The country is currently suffering from economic collapse, mass displacement, and persistent conflict, not primarily due to ideological divergences, but rather because of a lack of collective accountability. In this critical moment, prioritizing ideological purity over national preservation may be counterproductive.
It is imperative for political elites—irrespective of ethnic, ideological, or generational affiliations—to transcend their entrenched positions and start from a shared sense of urgency. No historical narrative, constitutional grievance, or identity-based vision holds greater importance than the survival of the Ethiopian state itself. This is not a call to abandon principles or suppress legitimate grievances. It is a call to set aside rigid positions to rescue the state. Establishing a united front must take precedence over resolving these contested issues. Unity fosters the potential for dialogue, whereas division diminishes the efficacy of even the most justified positions.
Such unity must also acknowledge the prevailing realities: various armed groups are currently engaged in active resistance against the regime, most notably the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Amhara Fano. Although these groups differ in their origins and objectives, they share a common adversary in the authoritarian state that has instigated warfare and repression across multiple regions. In Tigray, the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) has endured a brutal two-year conflict and possesses considerable military capability. To ignore or exclude these entities from elite political discussions is not only myopic; it is strategically counterproductive.
Political elites must foster structured communication and coordination with these armed forces, not to romanticize militarization but to formulate a transitional roadmap that accurately reflects power dynamics on the ground. These forces embody constituencies, sacrifices, and battlefield legitimacy that cannot be disregarded in any prospective settlement. Political elites must initiate serious conversations with these forces about shared interests, lines of coordination, and a post-conflict political vision. A broad-based coalition of resistance—encompassing both political and military facets—will be essential for confronting the regime and transitioning toward a new political order. To ignore these groups or exclude them from any transitional dialogue is to undermine the very goal of national stabilization.
The alternative is a repetition of historical patterns: elites engaging in discord while the nation deteriorates, and movements disintegrating in isolation. Time is of the essence. The divisions are profound. However, suppose Ethiopia’s political elites prioritize unity over victory and dialogue over dominance. In that case, a viable path remains—one that can encompass all forces dedicated to dismantling tyranny and reconstructing a pluralistic, peaceful Ethiopia.
The time for competition over the moral high ground is over. Now is the time to build common ground across ideological lines, ethnic boundaries, and tactical divides. Ethiopia’s survival demands a political class that can rise above self-preservation and act in the interest of collective rescue. That means unity in words, strategy, sacrifice, and shared responsibility.
The Weight of Responsibility: Strategy, Patience, and Endurance
The responsibility confronting Ethiopia’s political elites in the contemporary context is not merely rhetorical but fundamentally existential. Moreover, it is highly complex. Rebuilding a nation on the brink of collapse necessitates more than mere opposition; it requires deliberate, sustained, and coordinated leadership. This endeavor encompasses numerous interrelated components: unifying across ideological divides, engaging with armed resistance groups, fostering public trust, and establishing the framework for post-conflict governance. These elements will not align spontaneously.
This juncture demands more than fervor—it necessitates discipline. For political elites to be effective, they must commit to a trajectory prioritizing patience in negotiation, strategic planning over emotional reactions, and resilience in the face of setbacks. The path ahead is lengthy. Disagreements, delays, and disappointments are inevitable. However, retreating from the effort due to imperfection is not viable. Ethiopia cannot afford another cycle of ineffective leadership.
Authentic leadership is characterized by proactive rather than reactive approaches; it is principled and generational. Political elites must develop the capacity to withstand pressure, compromise without capitulation, and persist with clarity of purpose, even amidst uncertainty. This entails investing time and resources into trust-building, consensus-forming, and establishing shared frameworks to advance the nation.
This responsibility does not rest solely with one group; however, it must commence with those who currently possess the platform, the voice, and the accountability. If today’s political elites can meet this challenge—with humility, discipline, and vision—they will not merely avert collapse. They will establish the groundwork for a new political order that emerges not from dominance or mere survival, but from moral courage and a collective sense of purpose.
XI. Theoretical Insights for Elite Cooperation in Divided Societies
The deep divisions among Ethiopian political elites—rooted in competing ideologies, ethnic grievances, and historical narratives—have undermined every effort at unified resistance and national renewal. However, political science and peacebuilding scholarship offer valuable insights into how even bitterly divided elites can forge cooperation in moments of national crisis.
With their relative freedom, access to resources, and safe distance from state repression, diaspora political elites are uniquely positioned to apply these frameworks. What follows is not abstract theory—it is a practical roadmap for forming a united front to prevent state collapse and lay the groundwork for national dialogue.
A. Consociational Theory: Building a Pact Among Elites
Arend Lijphart’s theory of consociationalism provides a blueprint for cooperation in deeply divided societies by emphasizing elite pacts over popular majoritarianism.
Key principles include:
● Grand Coalition: Form a broad, inclusive coalition of diaspora elites across all major ethnic and ideological divides.
● Mutual Veto: Respect each group’s red lines by designing decision-making systems that require consensus or supermajorities.
● Proportional Representation: Ensure each ethnic or political bloc has a fair voice in leadership, communication, and representation.
● Segmental Autonomy: Allow space for group-specific issues while advancing national objectives collectively.
Application: Establish a “Diaspora Council for Ethiopian Unity” with rotating leadership, shared decision-making authority, and mechanisms to manage internal disputes while projecting external unity.
B. Conflict Transformation and Elicitive Peacebuilding: Relationships Before Structures
John Paul Lederach and Wolfgang Dietrich emphasize that conflict is not only about interests or ideologies, but also broken relationships and unresolved trauma. Genuine peacebuilding must begin with rehumanizing those across the divide.
Principles for diaspora elites:
● Relationship Building: Prioritize sustained personal connections across groups before formal coalitions.
● Long-Term Commitment: Viewing cooperation as a transformative journey, not just a crisis response.
● Cultural Relevance: Use indigenous conflict resolution values (e.g., elders’ mediation, cross-community rituals) to shape dialogue.
Application: Organize cross-ethnic diaspora retreats, storytelling workshops, and joint public campaigns to develop empathy, rebuild trust, and establish a shared moral language for cooperation.
C. Boundary-Spanning Leadership: Bridging the Divide
Ernst and Chrobot-Mason’s boundary-spanning leadership offers a model for those willing to lead across divides:
● Buffering: Create safe spaces where each faction can voice its grievances without fear of erasure.
● Reflecting: Deliberately explore each other’s historical narratives and validate each group’s pain and perspective.
● Connecting: Identify common ground, such as a shared commitment to ending autocracy or avoiding civil war.
● Mobilizing: Align divergent groups around a higher goal—national survival and democratic renewal.
Application: Train diaspora leaders in these techniques and institutionalize “dialogue facilitators” or “conflict navigators” roles within the emerging diaspora coalition.
D. Nested Games and Two-Level Negotiations: Managing Internal and External Pressures
George Tsebelis and Robert Putnam remind us that political actors operate in multiple arenas simultaneously. They must manage expectations within their group while engaging with others.
For diaspora elites:
● Recognize Internal Dynamics: Understand that cooperation will be judged within each community. Internal legitimacy must be balanced with broader consensus.
● Link Issues: Combine progress on contentious issues (e.g., historical narratives) with joint work on shared goals (e.g., economic recovery).
● Identify Win-Sets: Seek overlapping positions that allow each group to save face while advancing national unity.
Application: Develop multi-level negotiation strategies with internal caucuses and external coalitions. Use issue bundling to broaden consensus (e.g., federal reform + local autonomy guarantees).
E. Gradual Trust-Building and Iterative Cooperation: The Logic of “Start Small”
Drawing on Axelrod’s classic model of cooperation in uncertain environments, elites must build trust through repeated, low-risk interactions before tackling high-stakes issues.
Principles:
● Start with Non-Controversial Collaboration: Humanitarian coordination, diaspora fundraising, or education campaigns can build goodwill.
● Create Iteration: Structure ongoing interaction, not one-off summits. Trust grows through reliability.
● Scale Complexity Slowly: Begin with consensus-building, then proceed to deeper political discussions on governance, reconciliation, and reform.
Application: Launch a joint diaspora platform with a modest agenda—like organizing aid or commemorating victims of state violence—before expanding into political planning or transitional frameworks.
Final Note: From Theory to Transformation
These frameworks are not mutually exclusive. Together, they offer a layered, adaptive strategy for building elite cooperation in the diaspora. The priority is not to resolve every ideological and historical disagreement overnight, but to prevent national collapse, model democratic unity, and begin the slow but necessary work of reconstructing a shared Ethiopian future.
By grounding their actions in proven conflict-resolution and political negotiation theory, Ethiopia’s diaspora political elites can break the paralysis, restore moral leadership, and inspire similar efforts inside the country. And while past mistrust runs deep, there is still space to build something new—one forum, one step, one agreement at a time.
XII. The Dual Face of Ethiopia’s Political Elite: A Call for Reflection and Integrity
Ethiopia’s political crisis is not only institutional—it is moral and cultural. While the country desperately needs courageous leadership and unity-driven dialogue, parts of its intellectual and political elite have chosen a dangerous path of ridicule, scapegoating, and divisive rhetoric. In some cases, even respected scholars have used their platforms not to heal but to harden ethnic divides, attacking fellow Ethiopians for daring to collaborate across ethnic lines or advocate for national unity. Such behavior is intellectually dishonest and corrosive to the notion of a shared future.
When dialogue becomes a crime and empathy is branded as betrayal, a society slides further into mistrust and fragmentation. We must reject the culture of insults, stereotypes, and microaggressions that stifle discourse and vilify those seeking common ground. National reconciliation cannot begin while intellectual courage is punished, and ethnic loyalty is weaponized. It is time to affirm, without hesitation, that unity does not mean disloyalty—and that building bridges is not betrayal.
At the same time, we must also recognize and celebrate the scholars, thinkers, and public intellectuals who have chosen to fight authoritarianism with their pens, not propaganda. These individuals—though few—are invaluable to Ethiopia’s democratic future. With clarity, moral conviction, and strategic insight, they expose injustice, challenge power, and articulate a vision of inclusive nationhood. Even as their work receives limited engagement, they persevere, driven not by popularity but by principle.
These scholars must not stand alone. Their efforts should be amplified, their ideas discussed, and their example followed. Ethiopia needs more voices committed to truth, unity, and reform that reject silence and sectarianism. The time has come for the nation’s intellectual class to choose whether to fuel the flames of division or help extinguish them with ideas that heal, challenge, and build.
XIII. Media, Social Platforms, and the Battle for Narrative Control
In today’s Ethiopia, the space for open dialogue has collapsed under the weight of state repression. Journalists, YouTubers, and commentators who speak truth to power within the country face censorship, imprisonment, or worse. As a result, the diaspora has become the last arena for relatively free political discourse. YouTube channels and online platforms run by diaspora-based Ethiopians have emerged as vital spaces for panel discussions, political education, and public awareness.
Fortunately, a few YouTube channels are actively disseminating information and educating their listeners to effectively challenge the regime, surpassing even the so-called opposition parties.
However, this space is increasingly polluted by government-aligned influencers who weaponize misinformation to undermine resistance movements and discredit ethnic groups fighting for survival—particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regions.
Political elites must recognize the power of narrative. If left unchallenged, disinformation weakens public trust and fractures solidarity among oppressed groups. An organized, truthful, and strategically coordinated media presence—especially from the diaspora—is essential to resist authoritarian propaganda and reshape the national conversation.
XIV. On Leadership, Legacy, and the Road Ahead, Fragmented Struggle
Moral Courage and Public Responsibility
Ethiopia’s political elites—particularly those endowed with freedom and platforms—must rediscover the moral courage to engage publicly at this critical juncture. Silence in the face of atrocities, economic collapse, and political repression does not constitute neutrality; rather, it signifies complicity. An alarming number of intellectuals, veteran politicians, and community leaders express their discontent only in private, fearing backlash, division, or reputational damage. However, the stakes are excessively high for such caution. History will not remember those who opted for safety; it will remember those who stood firm when it was most crucial. Elites must emerge from the shadows and reclaim their public voice—not as partisans but as patriots willing to sacrifice comfort for collective salvation.
The Forgotten Leadership: Women, War, and the Politics of Peace
In the fragmentation of Ethiopia’s political struggle, one group’s contribution—and suffering—has often been ignored: women. Women have not only endured the brunt of the country’s violence—rape as a weapon of war, the loss of children to conflict, and the collapse of basic security—but they have also quietly sustained communities through caregiving, organizing, and survival. In nearly every region, women have been the first to mourn and the last to abandon hope.
However, despite their resilience and wisdom, women are rarely included in elite political negotiations or formal peacebuilding processes. This is a tragic loss—not only of justice but also of possibility. Across the world, women have been among the most consistent advocates for peace, reconciliation, and stabilization. Their leadership is rooted not in factional ambition but in protecting life, dignity, and the future.
A genuinely inclusive path forward for Ethiopia demands the active recognition and integration of women’s voices at every level of political dialogue and national recovery. This is not symbolic—it is strategic. Without women’s vision, agency, and moral clarity, any future political settlement will remain incomplete, fragile, and unjust.
The Missing Generation
One of the most significant tragedies of Ethiopia’s political crisis is its detrimental impact on the youth, who are ensnared by war, hunger, forced migration, and a pervasive sense of hopelessness. The young constitute the majority of the population. However, they remain politically marginalized, caught between an authoritarian state and a fragmented elite class that has failed to empower or prepare them. Political renewal will be unattainable without intentionally engaging this generation. Veteran elites must prioritize mentorship, youth inclusion, and the institutionalization of intergenerational dialogue. It is insufficient to advocate for change; we must ensure the next generation is equipped to carry it forward. Absent this effort, the cycle of conflict is likely to perpetuate.
Diaspora and Global Responsibility
Ethiopia’s political crisis has not unfolded in isolation; it has occurred with influential international actors’ passive consent—or calculated silence. In the name of regional stability or counterterrorism, governments and multilateral agencies have frequently supported authoritarian regimes while overlooking repression, war crimes, and democratic regression. This silence is not only morally troubling; it also emboldens impunity. With access to global institutions, media, and advocacy networks, Ethiopian diaspora elites are uniquely positioned to challenge this dynamic. They must articulate their concerns to fellow Ethiopians and the global community—exposing complicity, advocating for principled diplomacy, and amplifying the voices of those silenced at home. Without international accountability, meaningful reform will remain elusive.
Unity in Diversity
Unity in Ethiopia must not be conflated with uniformity. The nation’s strength resides in its pluralism—its languages, cultures, and histories. Unity entails a shared commitment to coexistence, justice, and mutual survival. Pluralism is not instinctive. Recognizing and appreciating diverse identities, ideas, and perspectives do not emerge naturally in most societies, especially those shaped by conflict, historical grievances, or rigid group loyalties. Instead, pluralism must be cultivated through deliberate effort, education, and leadership. We cannot achieve safety, peace, democracy, and economic prosperity in Ethiopia unless we ensure the nation is safe for diversity.
Political actors and intellectuals must move beyond tribal instincts and foster a culture where coexistence is tolerated and actively valued as a foundation for national renewal. Political elites must cease viewing differences as threats and instead embrace them as a foundation for a common purpose. A democratic Ethiopia will not demand that its citizens forget their identities; instead, it will encourage them to envision what they can collectively become.
No Freedom in Fragments
In Ethiopia’s deepening crisis, political elites must recognize that struggling against authoritarianism in isolation—fragmented by ideology, ethnicity, or personal ambition—will not bring meaningful or lasting change. Even if one faction were to succeed on its own, it would only deepen divisions and risk plunging the country into prolonged civil conflict. The moment demands not parallel resistance but a collective responsibility. Elites must build a forum—however informal at first—grounded in mutual recognition, trust, and goodwill. Such a space is essential to coordinate opposition efforts and lay the foundation for a shared vision of Ethiopia’s future. Without it, disunity will remain the regime’s most potent weapon.
Struggling in isolation—whether through armed resistance or peaceful negotiation—will not bring lasting change to Ethiopia. Leave alone fragmented military struggles, even fragmented peace efforts, like the Pretoria Agreement between the federal government and the TPLF, have failed to resolve the broader crisis. Why? Because they exclude other key actors, ignore the structural roots of conflict, and reinforce zero-sum thinking. A sustainable solution requires more than bilateral talks or isolated victories. It demands a common forum where all opposition forces, regardless of ideology or region, unite around a shared national vision. Fragmented efforts will only prolong the suffering. Unity, dialogue, and coordinated strategy are not optional—they are the only path to a peaceful and democratic Ethiopia.
XV. Toward a New Political Culture: Ethics as the Missing Foundation
Ethiopia’s political crisis is not just a crisis of governance or ideology—it is a crisis of political culture. Years of authoritarianism, opportunism, and identity-based rivalry have hollowed out the ethical norms that make politics a force for public good. Disagreement has turned into demonization, competition, sabotage, and leadership into personal entitlement.
Ethiopia needs structural reform and an ethical renaissance in its political life. Elites must cultivate a culture of mutual respect, truthfulness, humility, and restraint. This means listening before labeling, serving before demanding, and thinking beyond ethnic or partisan gains. A new Ethiopia cannot be built on the same moral fractures that led to its disintegration. It must be built by politically capable leaders who are ethically committed to the public they claim to serve.
XVI. A Glimmer of Hope: The Potential Awakening of Ethiopia’s Political Elite
Despite the daunting challenges facing Ethiopia, there is reason for cautious optimism. The depth of the crisis may catalyze transformative change among the nation’s political elites. History shows leaders can rise above their differences in extreme peril and act with unexpected courage and foresight. Ethiopia’s political elites, particularly diaspora ones, possess the knowledge, resources, and global networks needed to chart a new course. As the consequences of inaction become increasingly apparent, we may witness a profound shift in priorities and behaviors. Imagine a scenario where rival factions set aside historical grievances to draft a shared vision for the nation’s future. Picture veteran intellectuals re-engaging to mentor a new generation of leaders, while diaspora voices unite to amplify calls for democratic reform. Such an outcome is not merely wishful thinking—it is a real possibility born of necessity. Ethiopia does not lack capable minds or patriotic hearts—it lacks coordinated will. The crisis may force Ethiopia’s political class to rediscover their sense of national duty, leading to unprecedented cooperation and strategic thinking. If this transformation takes place, it has the potential to not only rescue Ethiopia from the brink but also serve as a powerful model of political renewal for the entire region. However challenging, the potential for such a turnaround offers hope in these turbulent times. The author of this article is optimistic that positive change will occur.
XII. Conclusion: The Imperative of Unity in the Face of National Peril
Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture, teetering on the edge of disintegration. The suffering of millions—displacement, repression, hunger, and fear—can no longer be viewed as isolated crises but as symptoms of a failing state. This failure is not just institutional; it is profoundly political.
The burden of this impending collapse falls heavily on Ethiopia’s political elites, particularly those in the diaspora. These individuals, endowed with freedom, platforms, and access to global power centers, have failed to leverage these advantages effectively. Their disunity, silence, or self-preserving hesitation has created a moral and strategic vacuum when bold, collective leadership is desperately needed.
This is no longer a matter of tactical disagreement but an existential crisis. Ethiopia cannot afford the luxury of elite squabbles over federal formulas, historical interpretations, or ideological labels. While these debates matter, they are secondary to the overriding priority: preventing national collapse and preserving the very idea of Ethiopia.
However, a path forward still exists amid this danger—if diaspora elites choose to take it. This article has outlined that path, grounded in both political theory and historical urgency:
1. Give a chance to examine trans-ethnic federalism to balance the right to identity with the imperative of national unity.
2. Form a cross-ethnic, cross-ideological coalition that offers an alternative to authoritarian rule.
3. Rebuild public trust through radical transparency, truth-telling, and shared moral leadership.
4. Re-engage veteran intellectuals who carry the memory of past struggles and can guide future ones.
5. Challenge intellectuals who serve tyranny, calling them to account for betraying truth and legitimizing violence.
To the political elites of the Ethiopian diaspora: This is your moment of truth. Every day of inaction, every choice to remain divided, brings Ethiopia closer to fragmentation, civil war, and generational trauma. In this critical moment, disunity represents both a strategic miscalculation and a failure to meet moral obligations. The Ethiopian people, silenced and suffering, are watching. So is history.
However, there is hope. History shows that even the most bitterly divided societies can be reimagined through courageous leadership and collective action. Ethiopia can follow this path, but its diaspora leaders must rise above factional interests and personal ambitions.
This effort demands more than uniting elites across ethnic and ideological lines. It calls for a fundamental shift in political culture—abandoning the tendency to discredit voices based on past affiliations or ethnic backgrounds, rejecting the fantasy of messianic leadership, and instead fostering the empowerment of the people.
As we conclude, let us remember: Ethiopia’s future does not depend on eliminating disagreement—it depends on learning to live with differences through shared rules, mutual respect, and inclusive dialogue. The task ahead is to build institutions and processes that allow differences to coexist and be resolved without violence, exclusion, or collapse.
As Dr. S. Jaishankar, India’s Minister of External Affairs, recently observed in a speech on international relations, “differences should not lead to disputes, and competition should not escalate into conflict.” Though spoken in the context of diplomacy, this wisdom applies just as powerfully to Ethiopia’s political elites, ethnic groups, and parties. Disagreement is inevitable in any diverse society—but it need not be destructive. The challenge is not to eliminate differences, but to manage them within frameworks that promote coexistence, mutual respect, and national stability.
Ethiopia is currently under an autocrat who once claimed, “Killing is a sign of losing.” Yet, shortly after assuming power, he paradoxically became a champion of violence against his people. Indeed, he has lost the hearts and minds of the people; all that remains for him is his apparatus of violence and the power he wields.
The window for action is closing rapidly. The eyes of history are watching. The time for unity and decisive action is now. Let the record show that in Ethiopia’s darkest hour, its diaspora elites did not stay silent but built something no regime could repress: a coalition grounded in dignity, justice, and shared destiny. Let this be the beginning—not of another debate, but of a democratic rebirth for Ethiopia.
The time for declarations is over. What Ethiopia needs now is coordination, courage, and follow-through.
“History does not wait for perfection. It rewards those willing to act when the stakes are highest.”
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