Why Both Ethiopia-Centered and Tribe-Based Change Agendas Continue to Fail

Yonas Biru, PhD
(unedited draft for discussion)

A caveat is in order at the outset. The article focuses on Oromo, Amhara and Tigray extremist forces and their conflict-brewing sidekicks in the diaspora. Obviously, there are moderate and moral forces both within each group and outside of them. Unfortunately, they are either cowed into silence or they have failed to build a critical mass to make their voice count in the nation’s political እሰጥ አገባ.

Two issues differentiate this article from conventional thinking in Ethiopian politics. First, the article challenges prevailing thoughts on why Ethiopia-centered change agendas have failed to bear fruit. For example, Lidetu Ayalew has been tirelessly hammering the need for political dialogue as a vehicle to conflict resolution and political transformation for far too long. There were others including Professor Ephriam Isaac pushing the same agenda. Unfortunately, in a deeply tribalized and highly polarized environment, their efforts to sanitize the ecosystem proved a slow grinding process with little to write home about. The purpose of this article is to bring a new perspective on why their efforts failed.

Second, the article rejects the widely held belief that Ethiopia’s problem is a head-on collision between Amhara, Oromo and Tigryan nationalists. Amhara nationalism is a mirage. Though there are political groups and leaders who espouse Amhara nationalism, they have not been able to create an Amhara nationalist political powerbase.

Amhara nationalism is sandwiched between two strong bipolar identities. The top layer constitutes an archaic Ethiopian identity into which Amhara nationalism has morphed over centuries. The bottom layer consists of disparate and strong polities of Gojam, Gonder, Shewa and Wello who have their own unique identities with region-specific ethos, political history, social psychology, and culture. Despite an all-out effort, Amhara nationalism has failed to break out of this trap.

Currently, there are five or six independently written Fano manifestos, including by diaspora supporters of Gonder Fano, Gojam Fano, and Ethiopianist Fano, etc. The authors of these documents refuse to work together to produce a consensus Amhara manifesto. Those involved in producing Gojam, or Gonder manifestos preserve their allegiance primarily to their respective communities not to the broader Amhara community.

Even worse are those who are in a death-do-us-part wedlock with a mythologized Ethiopian identity. They see themselves as the custodian of Ethiopian identity and have no interest in compromising with other tribal homelands who do not subscribe to a mythological Ethiopian identity.

This article will show Ethiopia’s political crisis is a tug-of-war between a mythological archaic Ethiopia that is embraced by extremist Amhara forces and a tribalized Ethiopia that is stricken by extremist Oromo and Tigryan tribal cancer. Any change agenda that fails to take this phenomenon into consideration will bear no fruit.
Why Have Ethiopian-Centered Calls for Change Failed to Get Traction?

In May 2024, Lidetu released a 26-page commentary calling for a transitional government to lay the groundwork for a democratic transformation. His commentary was discussed and debated widely over dozens of social media forums. It gradually died out without getting traction or setting of follow-up actions. The question is: Why? The answer is both complex and simple at the same time. Let me take the simple one for brevity.

All recent efforts to promote a national dialogue to affirm democratic principles and human rights have failed to open up a new political center of gravity. ኢትዮጵያ ዜጎች ለማኅበራዊ ፍትህ (ኢዜማ) – Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) – is an example. Like Lidetu’s, EZEMA’s agenda was democratic, and its unity agenda was robust, but still failed to create a political powerbase for two reasons.

First, the 80 plus tribes outside of Amhara, Oromo and Tigray are fearful to challenge the status quo. Second, extremist forces in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray aggressively defend their political turfs from moderate forces. Oromo and Tigryan extremists resist Ethiopianist forces in general. Amhara extremists reject Ethiopianist forces who do not subscribe to the mythological archaic Ethiopian identity. In both cases the targets are moderate forces who are open to compromise.

The strategy that has a better chance for success is one that is anchored in Amhara, Oromo and Tigray regions, addresses the inherent problem in them, and advocates for a transformative change first from within and subsequently spreads the change outward. In late 2018 and early 2019, I wrote several blogs proposing a coalition between EZEMA and the National Movement of Amhara (NAMA), marrying the latter’s powerbase with the former’s agenda. There was no taker.

At the time, NAMA was run by extremist souls who tried to create Amhara nationalism. The Chairman, Dr. Desalegn Chanie warned Ethiopianist forces to stay clear of the Amhara tribal land. For example, he wrote a public warning to Tamagn Beyene not to visit Gonder if his intention was to talk About Ethiopia, because Amhara’s primary concern is not Ethiopia.

Christian Tadele, NAMA’s public relations director articulated their agenda in a published manifesto titled “የምንገነባው ብሔርተኝነት ግራዋ እንጂ ሚሪንዳ ስላለመሆኑ.” The manifesto aimed to build “ጽንፈኛ የአማራ ብሔርተኝነት.” EZEMA officials were chased out of Bahir Dar with stones and guns. የግራዋ የአማራ ብሔርተኝነት failed to take root. Today, both Dr. Desalegn and Christian are Ethiopianists as is EZEMA.

Growing Calls for Constitutional Reform in the Tribal Political Space

Tribalist forces are slowly and begrudgingly coming to the realization that Ethiopia’s tribal constitution is the root cause of the nation’s political ills. In the March 11, 2016, issue of Addis Standard, Dr. Negasso Gidada, the late President of Ethiopia who also served as the chairman of the 1995 Constitutional Constituent Assembly, stated: “If something is not done, this constitution will not hold the country together; I fear the controversies will get out of hand and eventually put the country’s unity in danger.”

In December 2022, a prominent Tigrayan professor of constitutional law and former champion of the current constitution (Alemayehu Fentaw) wrote: “Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism was meant to be a political experiment at accommodating ethnic diversity and managing ethnic conflicts. The experience so far shows that the system has failed. Ethiopia is at a moment of great constitutional crisis. Nothing short of a comprehensive constitutional reform can resolve the conflicts and halt the ongoing ethnic pogroms.”

In 2024, Bethlehem Tafesse of the Betty Show revealed that in private meetings Oromo intellectuals admit that the current system is not sustainable, but they will not share this in public, fearing retribution and ostracization from extremist forces.

In 2025, Jawar publicly acknowledged it is time to grab the bull by the horns and redesign the constitution. In the meantime, he rightly noted that in practice changing the constitution will be difficult. The most difficult task is breaking the news to the generation young tribal militants and traffickers of violence that the advocates of the constitution, including Jawar, hatched, nurtured, and unleashed.

Jawar’s Call for Oromo Spring: Too Little, Too Vague, and Misguided

Jawar Mohammed’s heralded political transformation has many moving parts, including a worrisome track record, missing game plan, conflicting intentions and question if it is a ruse to sell his newly released book – አልፀፀትም. Above all, his misreading of the Amhara dynamics and his tendency to take the Oromo political space for granted undermine his change agenda. Nonetheless, his call for change that came at a time when the nation is at the verge of collapse and the window of opportunity for course correction is narrowing should be welcomed.

More recently, two Addis Ababa University professors (Muhammed H. and Idris A.) added their voice to the chorus of call for reform on the Curate Oromia website, stressing the need for “fostering dialogue and understanding to prevent conflicts that have previously been exploited for political gains.”

Despite his disrepute, Jawar still has over 2.6 million active followers on Facebook alone and wields significant influence in the Oromo political landscape. The size of the crowd at his book launch in cities across Europe and the US testifies to this. Therefore, neither ignoring nor rejecting him outright is sensible. The rational reaction to his call needs to be one driven by logic and reason, challenging him when warranted and engaging him where there is a win-win space.

This does not mean we should not pay attention to his track record of disrepute and personality flaws that have many similarities with the flaws that have doomed the sitting prime minster. Politicians do not choose their adversaries. They play the card they are dealt with. Therefore, Jawar’s detractors need a scenario analysis to prepare for viable engagement alternatives.

His self-marketed political transformation may play out in different forms. Which one will prevail depends on his true intention which is not clear at the moment. In some forums, he states tribal politics is unsuited for democratic governance and goes as far as calling for a constitutional reform. In other forums, he sounds as though his objective is removing the long and sharp thorns of the constitution and salvaging its primary tenets. Yet in other forums he talks about surgically removing the PM without disturbing the status quo. Let us see three possible scenarios.

First Scenario: Rebranding Oromummaa with a New Façade and Flavor.

Oromummaa is an extremist Oromo doctrine that aspires to create a hegemonic Oromo power to deconstruct Ethiopia and recreate her with Oromo creeds and ethos. The first scenario in Jawar’s change agenda may involve creating Oromummaa lite aimed at tempering its ambitions and pacifying it violent elements. This may be a strategy to balance the interests of his Qeerroo constituencies who are wed to Oromummaa and the rest of the people who want change.

His supporters suggest he needs to carefully navigate the transformation process to buy time until he sensitizes, educates and inspires his followers to get them on board the change bandwagon. His detractors see it as a ploy to buy time with the aim of resuscitating Oromummaa.

Second Scenario: Phasing out Oromummaa while Keeping Amhara and Tigray Forces at Bay.

This scenario assumes Jawar is aware that the current tribal constitution and the resultant political structure is flawed and needs to be reformed. In this regard, the second scenario may involve phasing out Oromummaa in stages while treating Amhara and Tigray with restraint to maintain power in the hands of Oromos. There are different reasons to handle Amhara and Tigray with caution. The problem with Tigryan politicians is that their oversized and inflexible preconditions for cooperation do not match their limited current influence over the national political space.

The Amhara issue is different. In the short term, Jawar may want to distance himself from Amhara forces to appease the anti-Amhara Oromummaa cult enterprise. In the medium- to long-term, he may want to lock Amhara forces out of political power contention by creating and strengthening a coalition with other tribal lands. Phasing out Oromummaa can help him achieve this.

If he succeeds in capturing the middle of the nation’s political spectrum as an Ethiopianist Oromo, he can position himself to win the confidence and support of the political space outside of the Amhara and Tigray tribal lands. This is a second-best scenario for tribalist Oromos given the paralysis in the Amhara and Tigray political space, despite Fano’s limited success on the military front. However, it is a band aid solution to a national crisis that stems from the cancerous ills of tribal politics.

Third Scenario: Pursuing a Transformative Democratic Reform.

This may depend not only on Oromos but also all other stakeholders, domestic and international. This will allow a viable coalition that can dethrone the Boy King and bear a sustainable peace. Such a broad coalition will open the premiership position to a consensus candidate based on democratic principles. The scenario bears the best chance for a democratic transformation.

When it comes to addressing power sharing, Jawar’s solution is “elite bargaining” between Oromo, Amhara and Tigray. This is neither a democratic process nor an all-inclusive solution. He understands that if the elite bargaining is limited to the three groups, Oromo and Tigray will work in cahoots to sustain the current constitution in some form. Adding others in the bargaining process comes with the risk of undermining tribal constitutionalism that Jawar has not unequivocally divorced himself from.

II. Amhara’s Wedlock with an Archaic Ethiopian Identity and Oromo & Tigryan Tribal Cancer

The three scenarios outlined above cannot be analyzed in a vacuum, but in the context of the nation’s political environment in the three power centers. Only then can we understand Jawar’s call for Oromo spring is too little, too vague and far beyond his ability to bend the trajectory of the political process toward a common good.

Amhara’s Till-Death-Do-Us-Part Marriage to the Ethiopian Mythological Identity

In 2019, Jawar posted a message stating: “Amharaizing the Amhara has been the most useful accomplishment of his change. The ‘Ethiopian’ mask used by Amhara elites to camouflage ethnocentric interest has been barrier to real dialogue. Now the mask has been removed, real negotiation and discussion is possible.” What Jawar saw was the Amhara façade, mistaking the bee for the hornet. As noted above, Amhara nationalism is a mirage. The Amhara social psychology is in a till-death-do-us-part wedlock with a mythological Ethiopian identity. At the root of Amhara’s political cancer is its failure to free Amhara from its custodian role for such an identity.

Oromos Tribal Cancer

The Oromo crisis can be summarized in one line: በትረ መንግስት በእጁ ይዞ እና በመንበረ-ሥልጣን ዙፋን ላይ ተቀምጦ በራሱ ላይ የሚሸፍት የኦሮሞ ሃይል ብቻ ነው. In a nutshell it means “The Oromo elite is the only power that sits at the apex of the political power structure and rebels against itself.

Sadly, a mind that has been stuck in 50 years of grievance politics cannot unlearn a reflexive mindset that is primed to rebel. The essences of Oromummaa political principles are anchored in, and revolve around three doctrines. First, Oromummaa is a culture of whining and bitching about past tribal injustices that its leaders willfully fabricated and later adopted as articles of faith. Two examples include the infamous Anole story and the claim of the genocidal extermination of 5 million people during Menilik’s era. During Menilik’s time the total population of Oromo was less than 4 million.
Second, Oromummaa prioritizes tribal allegiance above all else, including religious fidelity. Jawar’s “I Am First Oromo before I am Muslim” drives this point home.

Third, Oromummaa’s ኬኛ doctrine that has aged down old men and women and made them act like a child who believes his toys are his and his friends toys are his, too.

Presenting Oromos as victims of Emperor Menilik’s forced assimilation in the “Ethiopian empire” is the staple of the Oromummaa political narrative. But its say nothing about Oromo-forced assimilations of others including Amharas. As documented in a book authored by an Oromo historian and published by the Cambridge University Press, historically “the Oromo has assimilated more than they were assimilated by others” during the Mogassa invasion of other tribes.

During the Mogassa invasion, Oromos forced their victims to abandon their names, languages, and traditions and baptized them to make them Oromo in every facet of their existence. To top it off, fictitious Oromo genealogies were created for the forcefully assimilated tribes so they can count “their ancestors several generations back to a “hypothetical” Oromo lineage. For example, a defeated and captured Amhara men were not only required to change their first names to Oromo names, but also their last names adopting a made-up Oromo heritage. Imagine Getachew Alemu Hailemariam Tasew becoming Hundessa Tulu Lencho Degechissa.

In his above noted book, Mohammed documented the forced assimilation of many tribes under the Oromo hegemony as follows: “The Oromization of the conquered did not exclude their subjection. Their rights were trampled upon, their women and children sold into slavery by their Oromo masters”

Historical record abound that Menilik ordered Oromo nobilities to stop the slave trade system. The Oromo whom he allowed to maintain their names, language and tradition are the very people whining and bitching about being humiliated and assimilated by him, while remaining silent about Mogassa’s unmatched atrocities.

Oromummaa elites also lament that Oromo cities such as Adama and Bishoftu were given non-Oromo Christian names – Nazriet and Debre Ziet, respectively. But they say nothing about tens of originally non-Oromo cities large and small that have been changed to Oromo names during the era of Mogassa expansion. What is today Kemisse and its surrounding in Wello was called Gegn (ገኝ) before the Mogassa invasion. Western Wollo including Worehimenu, Woreillu, and Borena used to be Bete Amhara (ቤተ አማራ).

About a year ago, I penned an article recommending to dissolve Oromo autonomous administrative zones in the Amhara tribal land until Amhara living in the Oromo tribal land are given the same rights. The blog got the Oromummaa colony up in arms, accusing me of inciting a genocide, against Oromos in the Amhara region. In the meantime, they see nothing wrong with denying Amhara in the Oromo tribal the same rights.

Sadly, Oromummaa’s tribal cancer makes Oromo’s political outlook irreconcilable with rational logic, truth or moral culpability. Any solution to the Oromo problem must start with treating the malignant cancer. Jawar’s call for political transformation falls short on various critical issues.

Tigryan Tribal Cancer

Like their Oromummaa counterparts, Tigryan elites of the Weyanummaa genre blame Menilik for everything under the sun. Before Menilik captured the throne and made himself the emperor of Ethiopia, Yohannes of Tigryan origin was the emperor. Yohannes became emperor after he defeated Amhara kings. Tigryan elites see this as a legitimate power transfer from Amhara to Tigray, but regard Menilik’s victory against Tigryan kings who succeeded Yohannes as an immoral and illegitimate usurpation of power and a violation of Tigray’s natural right.

One of their complaint is that Menilik got assistance from foreign governments to defeat Yohannes’ successor. They say nothing about the fact that Yohannes received assistance from Great Britain to weaken Emperor Tewodros II, which helped him in his quest to become emperor of Ethiopia.
More recently, as the TPLF and the Abiy administration were preparing for war, TPLF officials and prominent Tigrayan activists were appealing to Eritrea to join the war in defense of Tigray. One such person was Daniel Berhane. Here is what he tweeted long before the war.

“To my Eritrean brothers and sisters. I might not be the right person to say this to you. But I got this to say. There is a war on Tigray. Make no mistake, it is war on all of us. Whoever wants to kill Tigrayans would have you as his next target. We’d better stand together.”

Eritrea was approached by the TPLF and the Ethiopian government. President Isayas chose to side with the latter. In his book titled “War on Tigray: Genocidal Axis in the Horn of Africa,” Daniel condemned Eritrea’s involvement on the side of Ethiopia as a matter of principle. This is like the proverbial retired 80-years-old sex worker who condemned prostitution on moral grounds.

In 2023, the Amnesty International accused the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and its Amhara and Eritrean allied forces of committing “war crimes” and “Crimes Against Humanity.” It further blamed Amhara forces for Ethnic cleansing. Using the same investigative method, the Amnesty International blamed TPLF forces for “despicable acts that amount to war crimes, and potentially crimes against humanity [that] defy morality or any iota of humanity.”

In his book, Daniel happily accept the condemnation against ENDF, Eritrean and Amhara forces, but rejected the report on Tigrayan atrocities, arguing the investigation method was flawed. Did I mention the same investigation method was used for both reports?

The Wolkait issue is equally telling. The TPLF annexed Wolkait from Gonder (present day Amhara) through war in 1979. This is 17 years before the current constitution was enacted. The annexation was obviously in violation of the then prevailing constitution.
In 2020, TPLF lost Wolkait to Amhara through another round of war. Amhara reannexed Wolkait in violation of the current constitution. The Tigryan elites whine and bitch that their land was annexed in violation of the constitution. If your remind them of their own 1979 meta constitutional annexation, they will tell you the decision was based on language. When you remind them if language was the decision factor Addis Ababa, Nazareth and Debreziet will be declared Amhara land since the majority speak Amharic. Their response is: “You are anti-Tigray” and “genocide promoter.”

Just like their Oromummaa brethren, Weyanummaa elites follow a children’s philosophy: (1) my toys are mine and yours are mine, too; (2) your attack against me must be condemned as genocide and you must be punished but my similar attacks against you are nothing to fuss about; and (3) if I take your land by force in violation of the constitution, it must be legitimized, but if you take my land by force in violation of the constitution, you must be condemned and forced to return it.

Ethiopia will not see peace until the Tigryan tribal cancer is treated with political chemotherapy.

III. The Competing እከደከድየ Culture of Amhara, Oromo and Tigray

Any hope for Ethiopia’s political transformation must not only tackle Oromo’s and Tigray’s tribal cancer and Amhara’s wedlock with a long dead Ethiopian mythological identity, but it must also refute the competing እከደከድየ cultures of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo. The closest English description for እከደከድየ is engaging in a constant one-upmanship.

In a video presentation titled: “Tigray was, is and Will Be” Professor Zeresenay Alemseged claimed: “Philosopher John Lock’s philosophical writings influenced the US Declaration of Independence, but Tigrayan Philosophers were ahead of John Lock.” John Lock lived between 1632 and 1704, and the US Declaration of Independence was written in 1776. The good professor’s speech was shared on Facebook, but has since been removed.

A prominent Tigryan journalist Dawit Kebede summarized the notion of Tigrayan exceptionalism and its political implications in an interview he conducted with Aboy Sebhat Nega: “ትግራይ የኢትዮጵያ የስልጣኔ ምንጭ ናት። ሰለዚህ በኢትዮጵያ ሃገር አቀፍ የፖለቲካ ውሳኔ ላይ በህዝባችን ልክ 6% ድምጽ ነው የሚሰጣችሁ ቢሉን አንቀበለም። እንገነጠላለን.” Loosely translated it means: “Tigray is the source of Ethiopia’s civilization. Therefore, when it comes to national political decision Tigray’s voting rights should not be limited to 6% based on its share of the Ethiopian population. We will not accept that. We will secede.”

During TPLF’s reign, 38 seats were allocated to Tigray in the national Parliament, 40 percent more than the Somali nation that has a greater population than Tigray. Political appointments in government offices were proportioned 25% each to Tigray, Amhara, Oromo and Southern People. A tribe that accounted for only 6% of the population enjoyed 25% of the spoils of political power for 27 years. Beneath Tigray’s resentment in present day Ethiopia is its failure to maintain Tigryan exceptionalism not only as a psychological phenomenon but also as a political practice.

When it comes to delusional insanity, the revered spiritual and mythological Ethiopia that resides in the minds of the contemporary Amhara elites is as high as that of delusional Tigray on the Richter scale of lunacy. It is this mindset that led Zemene Kassie to say: “ቀሪው አለም አህያ በሚጭንበት ጊዜ የኛ አባቶች ደመና ይጋልቡ ነበር.” It means: “When the resto of the world was using donkeys, we were riding the cloud.” Such a lunatic outlook has a firm grip in the hermitized Amhara intellectual class.

Professor Tesfaye Demmellash believes: “The colonial and post-colonial West’s concern for decades has been to constrain Ethiopian development…”Professor Al Mariam agrees: What we are witnessing is “The Clash of Civilizations” between Ethiopia and the US. But, no worries, “Ethiopia will win,” the colorful professor asserted, without an iota shame or doubt. Professor Mamo Muchie took it to the next level: “The world fears time; time fears history; history fears Ethiopia.” Ironically, it is the Amhara that coined and popularized the saying: ቅዳሴ ቢያልቅበት ቀረርቶ ሞላበት.

Similarly, Oromo elites know no match in political psychosis. The Gadaa Renaissance website promotes Professor Asafa Jalata’s fiction that markets Oromo Gadaa “an example of classical African Civilization.” Professor Asafa sees “Oromo popular democracy as the Gadaa system that existed before American democracy.” Oromo YouTube media outlets run away with the craze claiming Gedaa is the “oldest democracy” in the world. There is even a book of a sort that declares Gadda as “Pure and oldest democracy practice in the world.”

Never mind that Gedaa is a 16th century phenomenon and democracy was practiced in Athens before the birth of Christ. Never mind also that Ghana had a well-developed traditional governance system that dates back to the 9th century. The Benin Kingdom in Nigeria that is considered one of the most developed states in an 11th century practice.

Today, professor Asafa Jalata believes Oromummaa that is anchored in the Gadda system is “a global project” that “places the Oromo man and woman at the center of analysis and at the same time goes beyond Oromo society and aspires to develop global Oromummaa” to promote “global humanity.”

Followers of the Oromo Waaqeffanna religion believe the first-person that God created was not Adam, but an unnamed Oromo man. One thing is for sure. Waaqeffanna does not have scriptures or a holy book. Professor Tesema Ta’a, one of the leading Oromummaa intellectuals, brough to light a research work that documented: “The Whites, the Arabs and the Abyssinians [Ethiopians], each one has a book given to them by God. In the beginning Waaqa also gave the Oromo a book but a cow swallowed it. Waaqa got angry and did not give them a second book.”

Their obsession with Ethiopia leads them to believe Ethiopia has its own Bible. It is this lunacy and their thirst for one-upmanship that led them to publish a revised (Oromized) Bible. For example, Psalms 68:31 read’s “Ethiopia is extending her hands to God.” The Oromummaa version reads: “Cush is extending her hands to God.”

Such are the people dominating the Tigray, Amhara and Oromo political class who do not give a damn about their destitute people. In the 21st century, their mothers, sisters and daughters travel for hours to collect drinking water from rivers and ponds, competing with wild and domestic animals.

All the elite colony cares about is shitting the shit about their greatness, including riding clouds, making the Oromo man and woman the center of the universe, and touting the Axumite civilization as the foundation of democratic ideals that American democracy grew out of. Utterly Shameful!

Sadly, the shame does not end with the political elite class. Tribal conflict is increasingly percolating into cultural and religious institutions. In this regard, the moral deterioration of artists and houses of prayers are in full display.

In the old days the preponderance of songs were about love, broken hearts, nostalgia, forgiveness, reconciliation, unity, and religious fidelity. Growing up we listened to Tilahun Gessese, Mohamud Ahmed, Ali Birra, Bezunesh Bekele and Bereket Mengestab who were known for their love songs.

The emergence of Tedy Afro and Hachalu Hundessa as the two most revered singers in Amharic and Oromigna is the product of the tug of war between the nation’s unionist and tribalist sentiments.
Today, the preponderance of Oromo songs are about war to win their freedom, over 30 years after the ethnic constitution became the law of the land and seven years after an Oromo prime minister took the reign of power. Breeding conflict and making it part of the Oromo culture is both the essence and purpose of the Oromummaa doctrine. For example, Tadele Gemechu’s Sanyii Leencaa is all about glorifying Oromos as the lions of war, as in the kings of the Ethiopian tribal jungle.

Mehari Degefaw’s Amharic song ግጠም አለኝ is about Amhara’s readiness for war with such line in the lyric as “የአንድነት ማሰሪያው የኢትዮጵያዊነት ጎንደሬ ነው ውሉ” and “የጎንደርን ሱሪ ሁሉም እየገዛ መታጠቅ ጀምሯል.” And then there is Aschalew Fetene’s አሞራው ካሞራ with an invigorating lyric that reads in part “ጎንደር ጀግና አታጣም አትጠራጠሩ፣ ልሂድ ወንድነቴን አሳድሼው ልምጣ.”

As part Amhara and part Oromo, I cannot help it but feel my adrenalin pumping as I listened to these rousing songs. These shits are powerfully intoxicating. I cannot imagine the impact they have on young Oromo and Amhara chaps.

Similarly, the most revered song in Tigray is “ተጋዳላይ ወሊደ ትበል ትግራይ.” The song glorifies death and destruction in the name of defending Tigray from enemies domestic (read Amhara) and foreign (read Eritrea) and making Tigray an Alpha Tribe in Ethiopia. When the government notified the people of Tigray the names of those who perished in the senseless war, “ተጋዳላይ ወሊደ ትበል ትግራይ” was blasting, and people were crying and dancing at the same time. It was painful seeing underage victims being posthumously elevated to the status of hero and heroine at national mourning day observed in every nook and cranny of Tigray.

As reported by BBC, Getachew Reda, confirmed that there were underage fighters among TPLF’s military ranks. An intercepted military communication exposed that the standing order is to shoot those who retreat or run to save their lives. It is to these children “ተጋዳላይ ወሊደ ትበል ትግራይ” is sang for.

What is even more saddening is the political seduction of religious institutions and leaders. In 2019, at a political campaign rally, Haile Michaiel Taddesse (an Oromo Religious figure), declared only native Oromos will be allowed to lead Oromo Churches. One can be a fourth-generation Ethiopian living in the Oromo ethnic region, and a native speaker of the language, he/she would still be unqualified to lead a sermon in the Oromo land unless he/she is native Oromo by blood.

During the Tigray war, Amhara Archbishops were supporting the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Amhara Militias. Some of the Archbishops were actively promoting the war and making statements that were unbecoming of a Christian much less of a Patriarch. Some talked about throwing their clerics hats and joining the army. In the same way, Tigryan Archbishops were openly on the side of Tigryan fighters, making equally unchristian statements.

After the war, Tigryan Archbishops declared independence from the EOTC and created a Tigryan Synod, accusing non-Tigryan (read Amhara) Archbishops of supporting an alleged genocide against Tigryans. These are the same Archbishops who were quite during TPLF’s 27 years of atrocities and during the TPLF’s invasion of Amhara and Afar lands during the recent war.

There are many reports produced by international organizations accusing the ENDF, Amhara, Eritrean, TPLF and TDF forces of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. Not a word of condemnation came from the holier-than-thou Tigryan Archbishops about TPLF and TDF crimes against humanity. Still, they took the moral high ground to condemn their Amhara counterparts for not speaking up when atrocities were committed against Tigryans. Evidently, this is a spectacular display of Tribal Tigryan mindset of “Your transgressions must be condemned but no reason to make a fuss about my transgressions.”

The problem has percolated deep down to every facet of the Oromo, Tigray and Amhara institutions. The change agenda requires a wholistic solution.

IV. Preliminary Thoughts on the Way Forward

Over 30 years ago, the late prime minister Meles Zenawi hoped to see Ethiopians eat twice a day in a decade time. Fast forward to Prime Minister Abiy, who promised Ethiopia will be one of the two superpowers in the world by 2050. He gave such a speech on the Ethiopian National TV. The speech has since been removed from the social media.

Not long after the delusional speech about making Ethiopia one of the two global superpowers by 2050, he chastised the destitute people of Ethiopia to stop complaining about shortage of food and cooking oil and advised them to throw wild collard greens and water in a pan, boil the water for a few minutes, add salt to test and enjoy a healthy meal.

Tribal politics has been experimented for 33 years under three prime ministers. A cursory look at the worsening breakdown of the nation’s law and order provides a snapshot. It makes no sense to keep using “implementation problem” as an excuse. The Chinese communist party came to power in 1949. After 29 years of failed economic development, Deng Xiaoping introduced a transformative reform in 1978. Today, China is a global economic superpower. It is past time for Ethiopians to change course.

The Oromo Challenge for Change

The Oromo tribal colony is shackled and blind-folded with the dead weight of a 16th century Gadaa, leaving it unfit to lead or to be led. There is no tribal region in Ethiopia that benefits from a democratic governance than the Oromo tribal land because of the sheer size of its population. In the meantime, there is no tribal region (barring Tigray) that has suffered from the vagaries of tribal politics more than Oromo.

The question is: If tribal politics is bad for Oromo and if democratic system favors Oromo because of its population, why is the Oromo elite choosing what is a worse alternative?

Jawar gives this issue a lip service, suggesting Oromo does not have anything to lose under a democratic system. In the meantime, he is not ready to grant sovereignty to citizens in a one-man-one-vote constitutional framework. He acknowledges tribal politics is good only to mobilize dissent but cannot serve as an organizing framework for a democratic governance. In this regard, he goes as far as calling for a constitutional reform. But when pressed if he is ready to support and advocate for a one-man-one-vote constitutional framework, he refuses to give a definitive answer. He says he has a roadmap for the change agenda, but he is not ready to reveal it “for strategic reasons.”

More voices need to be heard on this issue. Prominent and relatively more moderate Oromos such as Dr. Lemma Megersa, Professor Merera Gudina, and Taye Dendea need to come to the fore. Furthermore, prominent members of the silent majority, Aba Gadaas and leaders of interfaith groups need to weigh in to influence the trajectory of the change agenda. The change agenda needs to be led by a coalition of voices, not by an individual.

The Amhara Challenge

The Amhara is faced with tension between two conflicting end-goals. First is its legitimate need to defend itself from tribal atrocities, while being cognizant and careful not to allow the crisis turn into a civil war. Second is its determination that a potential civil war should not mean allowing the current status quo to continue without a transformative change. The question that is imposing itself on the Amhara community is: How can it balance this tension? The need to avoid a civil war requires it, and the nation’s political transformation depends on it.

The Amhara political problem stems from its failure to: (1) determine the foundational center and the social psychology that define Amhara nationalism, (2) stablish a unified Amhara political platform to develop a consensus political agenda along with a robust strategy and adoptive roadmap, (3) put to rest the mythologized and theologized long dead Ethiopian identity, and (4) establishing an Amhara coalition that frames, articulates and promotes a change agenda that aspires to build a consensus national identity that reflects the views and interests of all Ethiopians.

Currently, the Amhara community lacks a strategic roadmap and a clear end goal. Some want to the Fano movement to overthrow the federal government. Others believe a negotiated settlement based on strong preconditions is most viable and less costly. Some call for political coalition with opposition forces outside of the Amhara tribal land. Others insist such a coalition must wait until Fano’s victory. Some want a unified political and military Fano command center under a consensus leader. Others want a confederation arrangement between Gojam, Gonder, Shewa and Wello Fano enterprises.

After nearly two years, Amhara has failed to build a consensus on any of the major political issues. As a result, Amhara political elite are sleepwalking and throwing darts in the dark in the north, south, east, west, up and down directions. They project full confidence that they are advancing toward Arat Kilo. Unbeknown to them they are marching in circles leaving behind and following their own footprints simultaneously.

The broader Amhara community and its moderate voice will remain politically inconsequential until they tackle this problem head on.

The Tigray Challenge

The Tigryan political elite had the opportunity to lead the change agenda in 2015 or even 2016. It had the opportunity to be a part of the change agenda after the 2018 change of hands on the lever of political power. Tigray had a head start on the economic front. They could have built on and scaled up their economic advantage. Instead, they threatened war unless they were granted two special political privileges.

The first demand, as noted above was to grant Tigrayans more political voting rights in contravention of the “one-man/woman-one-vote” democratic principle. They believed political power should be determined by military power not by a the democratic one-man/woman-one-vote concept.

Second, they demanded special status in a confederation arrangement. As Time magazine noted, the TPLF “has been demanding greater local autonomy” after its national political dominance “started to wane in 2018.” René Lefort of Le Monde has stated that the TPLF seeks “to govern Tigray with as little external interference as possible with a true confederalism.” This is a flagrant violation of the federalist Constitution, under which the TPLF itself governed the country for 27 years.

In sum, what the TPLF wanted was to maintain an alpha tribe status to run itself without intervention from the federal government, while demanding more political power than its population warrants to influence the federal government and other tribal nations. This is what led to the war. As I have stressed in many articles, TPLF was responsible for triggering the war and the Prime Minister was responsible to elevating it to a civil war.

After they badly lost the war, TPLF and TDF leaders negotiated for a peaceful settlement in Pretoria to save their lives and maintain their leadership positions. Once in Tigray, they did nothing to rehabilitate their people. Instead, they took refuge in the Mekele Green Zone, stole international food aid from starving Tigryans, and started sniping at each other to control the ወያኔ palace.

After the end of the war, a Tigrayan medical professional revealed the cases of 400 young girls who returned home pregnant, 270 of them were found to be AIDS positive. That was only in one army unit, namely army unit 44. The document has since been removed from the internet. Tigryan elites are quite on the matter not to give their Amhara and Oromo adversaries a damning political agenda.

The people of Tigray must push for a two-pronged change agenda. The first prong should focus on having a voice in the current transformation discussion. In this regard, a broad coalition of voices need to emerge from different sectors of Tigray. The second prong is removing all factions of TPLF leaders from power and bringing new leaders to start the healing and reconstruction process. The people of Tigray have moral and political obligations to free the land from the evils of TPLF and open a new chapter in their lives.

V. Conclusion

The warring factions of the Ethiopian political elites almost never agree on anything. There is one exception. Both hermitized and tribalized elites agree the nation is tittering on the verge of collapse, the sitting prime minister is an irreformable and irredeemable sociopath, and the time window for course correction is shrinking. As Jawar rightly said, if Ethiopia collapses no tribal region will remain standing.

What is needed is a transformative paradigm shift, not a half-assed, half-hearted, and dubious change agenda. As noted above, Lidetu’s long-standing change agenda that calls for a transitional government has failed to get traction. There are several parties and political groups sharing his agenda, but alas after decades the demand has failed to deliver. It is time to pivot or change course.

Jawar’s call for change is already showing signs of fatigue, if not a failure. Unfortunately, he has put on hold his planned wall-to-wall media appearance after his interviews with Moges Teshome of Buffet of Ideas and Tedros Tsegaye of Reyot media encountered strong head winds.

Both Moges and Tedros are trained lawyers. Tedros’ questions were interrogatory focused on Jawar’s past and his failure to show contrition, repentance and redemption. Moges’ approach was to understand the foundational concepts and implementation mechanics of Jawar’s reform and seek clarification where there were fault lines and inconsistencies. Both were important approaches. Both showed Jawar was either not ready to be fully transparent about his reform plan or unwilling to address questions that challenge inconsistences in his narrative.

This article has shown current change agendas fail to understand that Ethiopia’s political crisis is a tug-of-war between a mythological archaic Ethiopia that is embraced by extremist Amhara forces and a tribalized Ethiopia that is stricken by extremist Oromo and Tigryan tribal cancer.

What the Amhara political elites fail to understand is that moderate Amharas have a better chance of forging a coalition across Gojam, Goner, Shewa and Wello around an Ethiopianist agenda that reflects a consensus view of all Ethiopians. Such an agenda can galvanize the Amhara silent majority and in the meantime create a winning opportunity to expand the coalition outside of the Amhara political universe. A credible Amhara powerbase can galvanize frightened and silence members of the 80 plus tribes to be a part of the change agenda.

Similarly, an Oromo and/or Tigray force with a consensus Ethiopianist agenda will have a better chance of transforming themselves/itself and then the nation than an agenda that attempts to salvage a failed and decomposing tribal politics. There is no point in pretending tribal politics is not at an advanced stage of decomposing.

Ethiopia’s problem is complex and deep rooted. It requires thorough analyses of micro and macro conflicts, it demands dealing with fault lines, releasing stress points, and disentangling hard knots of entrenched conflicts. Most of all, it needs facilitating deliberations of cooler heads. The first critical step is to build consensus through dialogue in each region. It is past time for new voices to assert themselves and establish new power centers to challenge extremist forces within their own regions.

Only then can the three regions engage each other through a national dialogue. Herding hot-headed and self-centered Amhara, Oromo and Tigray opposition forces with their baggage of intra- and inter-tribal conflicts to a national dialogue table is doomed to fail.