The Unstoppable Collapse of Oromummaa & the Immovable Dogma in Oromo Elites

Yonas Biru, PhD

Jawar Mohammed’s newly released book “አልፀፀትም” is crafted to herald his political transformation from a militant Oromo activist to a national political figure. The purpose of his transformation, he said, is to save Ethiopia from an imminent collapse. Be that as it may, the aggressive book release campaign embodies a public relations endeavor to traffic Jawar as a strong-willed freedom fighter who has navigated through the trenches and emerged on the other side as mellowed-down and seasoned leader. It is as much a political comeback publicity as it is a self-aggrandized political transformation.

For students of Ethiopian politics, his transformation is not a surprise. A year ago, I penned an article, suggesting: “Federalist forces are slowly and begrudgingly coming to the realization that Ethiopia’s tribal constitution is the root cause of the nation’s political ills. Adding oomph to the undercurrent, the Fano movement is bearing the seeds of hope for a national uprising.”

Jawar’s transformation is born out of these two phenomena. The purpose of this article is to provide a critical assessment of his political evolution, with the aim of understanding the driving forces behind his changing political narrative and its potential impact.

What we are witnessing in Jawar is two Kafkaesque protagonists jointly residing in his person. The main character seems Jawar the realist who is born out of, and tamed by, the nation’s political dynamic that has rendered the Oromummaa theology all but dead. His double, Jawar the opportunist, seem to lurk in the shadow trying to salvage the vital organs of Oromummaa. As I will show below, what will come out of “አልፀፀትም” depends which Jawar wins.

For those who are not familiar with the Oromummaa theology, it is the religiofication of the Oromo tribal politics. The theology places precedence on tribal identity over citizenship and religious allegiance. “I Am an Oromo First, Above All Else” is the beginning and the end of its Commandment

For those who support Jawar, his book has become a cradle of hope not only to save Ethiopia but also to salvage the primary organs of Oromummaa. His recent “discussion, not interview” with Tsedale Lemma (the former editor-in-chief of Addis Standard) presents a well-orchestrated cross-fertilization of propaganda in pursuit of smoothing the rough edges of Jawar’s aggressively marketed political transformation. Their choreographed theatrics seemed a motionless blend of የኦሮምኛ ጭፈራ and Argentine tango, mimicking a matador dancer teasing his target with a red muleta. It was a session of distraction, obfuscation and deception rather than description and explanation.

In the meantime, Prime Minister Abiy’s coteries of cadres are in an over-drive to fend off the gathering storm that is shaking the foundation of their master’s throne. Betty Tafesse’s interview with Sisay Agena epitomizes a desperate and self-humiliating diatribe. She came across not as “a political analysist” that she bills herself to be, but as a resentful woman with an unsettled score with Jawar and an infatuation of a newfangled love for the PM. Sisay’s role was curating the rhythm of her hate and love to the two Oromo protagonists. It was pitifully embarrassing.

The rest of Ethiopia seems to be equally divided into two groups. The first groups displays ambivalence with a blend of optimism for political transformation and suspicion of a ploy to breathe life into the decomposing Oromummaa body politics. This sentiment is succinctly described by a life-long political figure who hails from the Amhara tribal land.

“Every Ethiopian at home and in the diaspora must work together to thwart the existential crisis the nation is facing. The first critical step is to resist the temptation for ‘a holier than thou’ self-serving claim. We are all on a boat that is sinking. It is not time to settle whose hands are clean and whose are stained with blood. We all have contributed to the crisis one way or the other. Jawar may not be trustworthy, but we need to engage him with a large dose of caution.”

The second group consists of those who dismiss the “new and improved” Jawar as a manifestation of a naked hypocrisy and ostentatious chicanery. The group’s sentiment is reflected by an Ethiopian American professor who hails from the southern part of the country.

“As far as I  am concerned, Jawar’s Ethiopianism is just make-believe. He senses that change is coming and he is positioning himself. But he knows that he cannot be relevant without some Amhara support.”

I am in the first camp. We must understand that Jawar of the 2018 and Jawar of today are different. In 2018, he was hyped up with a sense of invincibility and running on adrenaline in his quest to advance Oromummaa.

Today, he is a deflated soul who has come to a reckoning that tribal politics is destroying not only the nation but also his tribal homeland. Gone are the days when Jawar and company attributed the nation’s political and security crisis to the government’s failure in the implementation of the constitution. Today, he publicly acknowledges the Constitution is inherently flawed and needs to be reformed. His current transformation involves self-preservation. The impetus is “ጨው ለራስህ ስትል ጣፍጥ.”

The fact that his transformation is not an isolated case is also encouraging. Though they are few and far in between, other firebrand Oromo tribalists such as Ezekiel Gabissa are also going through a similar political metamorphosis. More are likely to come to the fore. The only thing holding them is the embarrassment of coming to terms with their past.

Jawar’s Political Journey: A Timeline

The best way to examine Jawar’s transformation is by focusing on notable turning points on his political journey. The key turning points occurred in July 2013, April 2018, October 2019, June 2020, February 2023, and most recently in December 2024.

• [August 2013]Ethiopia did not exist before Menilik. Oromo was a country with its own government 5000 years before Menilik (“ኢትዮጵያ ከሚኒሊክ በፊት አልነበረችም። ከዛ በፊት ኦሮሞ የአምስት ሺ ዓመት ታሪክ፣ የራሱ አገር፣ የራሱ መንግስት እና የራሱ ስርአት ነበረው”) and “Ethiopia Out of Oromia.”
• [2018]“Multinational federalism engrained in the current constitution is here to stay. It is not up for discussion let alone negotiation. Anyone caught in some fantasy should wake from their hallucination.”
• [2019]The nation’s fate is in our hands. This is our opportunity now. Yes, it is our time. We must move forward without any worry about our own people’s or other people’s complaints. Otherwise, the Oromo alternative will be undermined.”
• [2023]“በጣም አስጠሊ ዘግናኝ የሆነ እልቂት እየመጣ ነው. ባለፉት አራት አመት የተሄደበት ሂደት ኢትዮጵያን ያፈራረሰ ያደከመ በህዝቦች መሃከል ያለውን ቅራኔ ወደ ጠላትነት እንዲገፋ ያደረገ እና ሃገር በከፍተኛ አደጋ ላይ የጣለ ነው። ካለንበት ችግር ውስጥ ለመውጣት ከዚህ በፊት በሄድንበት መንገድ መሄድ እንደማያዋጣ መገንዘብና ወደህዋላ መመለስ ነው።”
• [January 2024] “Ethiopia, is an old state with a historically rooted long state formation lineage, like Egypt and Iran.”
• [May 8, 2024]“We must be careful not to take ethnicity as the alpha and omega of politics. We need to move away from romanticizing or downplaying ethnicity. Instead, we should try to find a realistic middle ground.”
• [January 2, 2025] We need to come up with a political model where cross-ethnic, cross-religious, and cross-party cooperation and compromise are forced. This requires redesigning the constitution.

Prior to 2013, Jawar was more of an Ethiopianist Oromo who was campaigning to overhaul the political system within the Ethiopian framework. His 2010 paper obliterated a “closely guarded taboo” about “the untouchability of the OLF.” His paper damned the liberation front as an irredeemably dysfunctional. This put him on a collision course with militant Oromos.

The Oromummaa militant camp that is led by Professor Asafa Jalata uses two litmus tests for a true Oromummaa warrior. He or she must accept Oromummaa’s narrative that Oromo is a victim of:

• “Externally imposed cultural and religious identities.” More specifically, from Islam and Christianity whom Asafa calls“empire builders” and “colonialist institutions.”
• “Oromo is a victim of “Ethio-Amhara colonialists who have imposed Ethiopianism ideology on the Oromo via physical coercion, including terrorism, mental genocide”

Oromos who do not rally behind this belief system are seen as an “assimilated former Oromos, [who] like their Habasha hate the Oromo history, culture, institutions.”

The year 2013 was the time Jawar embraced the Oromummaa doctrine, and he was, in turn, embraced by its adherents, after he: (1) declared “I Am an Oromo First,” (2) claimed his Ethiopian identity was “imposed” on him, and (3) Oromo was a country before it was annexed by Menilik in the 20^th century.

Furthermore, he was asked in a public conference: “Are you first Oromo or Muslim.” He responded without missing a beat: “I Am an Oromo First”. With that he passed the most critical Oromummaa litmus test and won the trust and support of the militant Oromo colony. The Oromo liberation torch was passed from the oldest Oromo liberation front to Jawar. Jawar became an institution unto himself.

Subsequently, he established the Oromo Media Network (OMN), which he used as conflict brewing platform in pursuit of the deconstruction of Ethiopia. His mode of operation was inciting tribal conflict to build Greater Oromia on the ashes of Ethiopia. Nothing was sacred in his quest for political conquest.

He was not content with tribal clashes only. He felt the need to weaponize tribal conflicts with religious animosity. His most dangerous political poison was revealed in a 2013 speech he gave to a gathering of Ethiopian Muslims. He stated in his signature rhetoric: “My village is 99% Muslim. If someone speaks against us, we cut his throat with a machete.”

He preached to his audience: “It is only when you put political power in your hands that you will ensure your economic and social rights.” He wanted to create an Islamic political power not only in the Oromo tribal land but also in all other tribal lands. His message got traction in the Oromo tribal land. Part of the Qeerroo he tribalized became religious fanatics.

His message became deadly as it percolated down to the restless Islamic Qeerroo. They used machetes and gasoline to hack and burn not only Amhara Christians, but also Oromo Christians. When the Guardian raised the issue, Jawar claimed the “clip was doctored.” This was a boldfaced denial.

In April 2018, when an Oromo-led government took office, Jawar established a working relationship with the newly minted Oromo prime minister and moved from the US to Addis Ababa. His relationship with the prime minister was based on the concept of frenemy – part friends and part enemies. They needed each other, and each believed he would manipulate the other to advance his agenda of consolidating political power. In this regard, not only they tolerated each other but also praised one another. Par for the course of their frenemy relationship they also worked toward weakening each other.

At the time, the OLF was reviving itself after the government broadened the political space. Three were a crowd for Jawar. He wanted the OLF out of the game. He publicly proposed to arrest the OLF chairman. He also called up on the government to forcefully disarm OLF’s army. These statements were posted on his official social media accounts.

On September 13, 2019, Jawar issued a bold ultimatum to the PM’s party, the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), not to tinker with using constitutional reform as part of their election campaign. “We will not allow competition within Oromo parties… We must build a consensus and have a united front behind the current ethnic federalist system… We cannot allow ODP behave like a ship that has lost its compass… They cannot tell us this is their party, and they can do what they choose to do. We will not allow that.” He went as far as issuing an ultimatum to the prime minister: Do as I say, or I will hand you “Ethiopia with an expiration date.”

October 2019 marked another key milestone in his political journey after the Prime Minister inaugurated the Unity Park that put Emperor Menilik’s statute center stage. This led Jawar and his followers into a frenzy, accusing the prime minister of reviving the Menilik era. On the same day, Jawar and other prominent Oromummaa leaders including professor Merera Gudina organized a trip to visit the Anole statue that falsely memorializes Emperror Menilik as a genocider. This signaled a head-on collision with the prime minister.

The prime minister recalled Jawar’s government-provided bodyguards. In reaction, Jawar sent out a distress call to his Qerro foot soldiers. Within hours, armed Qerros blocked the streets across the Oromo tribal land and unleashed wrath upon innocent people, killing 67 and wounding 213 more.

After they ravaged cities and towns large and small, Jawar instructed them to “Open the blocked roads, clean the towns of barricades, treat those who have been injured during the protests and reconcile with those you have quarreled with.” But he warned them to “sleep with one eye open.” At a moment’s notice, the region returned to normalcy, allowing families to bury their dead and salvage whatever was left of their properties and businesses.

The unrest showed a fault line in the Oromo political landscape across religious line. Regions that are predominantly Muslim turned out in mass in support of Jawar, accusing the government of putting his life in danger. In the meantime, predominantly Christian regions called up on the government to take the necessary action to restore peace and security. This was a big blow to Jawar’s image and political stature.

On June 29, 2020, Hachalu was assassinated in Addis Ababa. Immediately after, Jawar politicized it, writing on social media: “They did not just kill Hachalu. They shot at the heart of the Oromo nation, once again… You can kill us. You can never ever stop us!! Never!!” As the BBC reported, “Trouble started when Hachalu’s body was being transported to his native town of Ambo for burial, but Mr. Jawar and his supporters intercepted it and returned it to the capital” contrary to Hachalu’s parent’s wish not to politicize his funeral. Jawar, whose intention was to organize a political funeral got arrested, on June 30.

According to the Economist, one officer was killed after a scuffle broke out between Jawar’s security detail and the police. Hachalu’s family sided with the government going as far as removing the OLF flag from the casket of Hachalu and throwing it on the floor.

The perception that the nation would go down in flames if the prime minister dared to arrest Jawar failed to pan out. He languished in jail without public protest, much less an Oromo-wide revolt. The prime minister won the political tug-of-war, and Jawar saw his stars dim and his political stature diminish.

On June 8, 2022, he was released from prison. By that time, his OMN platform was all but a dilapidated ghost of its past. A significant swath of Qerro leaders was partly coopted into the Boy King’s prosperity party and partly bought out with lucrative financial rewards. Jawar was forced to go to the drawing board to start from scratch.

Manifesto and Transformation (2023–2024)

In February 2023 Jawar released an Oromo political manifesto to chart a new path forward. This represented yet another timeline in his political life. The introductory part of the manifesto that he titled “The Next Chapter of the Struggle” was a direct and wholesale adoption of Professor Asafa Jalata’s Oromummaa theology in language, form and substance. Its objective was to save the Oromummaa political project from the Oromo-led government.

Those who are suspicious of Jawar’s motive are justified, considering his manifesto was written a year after his release from prison. That is after his supposed sobering reflection and deep understanding of the mistakes he had made as a young activist. Here are some of the salient points of his manifesto.

• “The Oromo national struggle is to make the people and its territory congruent and liberate them from foreign oppression.”
• The foreign oppressive regime was run by “Nafxanya” and “Imperial Amharas who held the central power and occupied the structures up to the villages and implemented the policies.”
• “The aim of the Oromo nation’s struggle is to occupy the system that harms its interests and change it to its advantage or to destroy or break away from the existing system of government and build a new system.”
• The failure of the Oromo-led government is signified in its “failure to consolidate the pillars of power in the hands of Oromo, including institutions, military, school, government, business, religion and media.”
• “A newly incumbent group must have at least three major pillars of power, the economy, the military, and society, in order to consolidate power by force. When the Oromo struggle came to power, it did not have its own army, and the economy was in the hands of others.”
• “Diplomacy is one of the pillars of power. This pillar needs to be changed so that it can be taken to power or taken over and used for Oromo’s benefit.”
• Oromo needs to build a peaceful and stable country, a strong military and security sector. It also requires the involvement of many experts in western institutions and international organizations. It is also useful to organize the foreign community to conduct diplomatic activities in the countries where they live. This requires bringing peace and reconciliation to the conflict in the Oromo political camp.
• Oromos need to realize “It doesn’t do much good to be completely hostile to the regime when the Oromo faction is in power.”
• “To thwart the loss of the Oromo-led ruling party and the Oromo people and ensuring the continuity of the Oromo-led regime, it is necessary to abandon the radical Oromo liberation agenda and adopting a moderate position by moving toward the center of the political spectrum. The moderation of the Oromo agenda should be achieved not by throwing away and denying the claim of the struggle that has brought it to power but by amending it and bringing it to the middle.”

The manifesto was a futile attempt to salvage Oromummaa with a window dressing reform. This is evident in his statement that “the moderation of the Oromo agenda should be achieved not by throwing away and denying the claim of the struggle that has brought it to power…” This is a crafty way of avoiding moral culpability and providing justification to moderate Oromummaa’s utterly false narratives rather than abandoning them.

Here are the claims of the Oromummaa struggle that was used to bring Oromo fanatics to power that he does not want to throw away.

• “The Ethiopian colonial terrorism and genocide that started during the lastdecades of the 19th century still continue in the 21st century.”  
• “Emperor Menelik massacred half of the Oromo population (5 million out of 10million) and their leadership during its colonial expansion.” [During the Menilik era, the Oromo total population was less than 5 million.]
• “Emperor Menelik controlled slave trade (an estimated 25,000 slaves per year inthe 1880s); with his wife he owned 70,000 enslaved Africans; he became one of the richest capitalists.”
• “Amhara supremacy and that glorifies the genocide that occurred against Oromocommunities in Annole, Chalanqo, and other parts. Ethio-Amhara colonialists devastated these communities and others by cutting the breasts of thousands of women and the hands of the men who survived Abyssinian colonial terrorism and genocidal massacre.”

Jawar is not a passive observer or a reluctant user of the false narrative. He is a leading force in institutionalizing lies as Oromo’s historical record. There are many documented examples. I will present only two.

The first example is that in the above noted manifesto, he alleges “The Ethiopian regime tried to destroy Oromo culture and traditions including Gada by cursing them as backwardness.”

The truth is that Gadda was used during the Oromo pastoralist era in the 16^th century. With social and military progress and the advent of agriculture as a predominant source of food, Gadaa lost its muster and competence. Consequently, it reached the end of its life cycle and died of natural causes.

This is acknowledged by Professor Asafa Jalata’s narrative of the geographic expansion of the Oromo regime and its implication on Gedaa. “The nonfederal nature of the Gadaa System, lack of Strong Central government, lack of regular meeting of Gadaa official and long distance of Gumii (assembly) from political center made Gadaa system less Competent”. Let us remember again that Professor Asafa is a firebrand Oromo militant and the Godfather of the Oromummaa theology.

Asafa’s narrative on Gedaa is echoed by Professor Endalkachew Lelisa, another Oromo. “Due to the geographical expansion of the Oromo territory and an increasing population, the central Gadaa government declined beginning in the mid-17^th century and autonomous regional and local republics took its place.”

Ironically, in his 2023 manifesto, Jawar asserts: “The period before the invasion of Menelik is considered to be a period of freedom and prosperity. Gada is presented as a symbol of the proud history of the past.”  Menelik’s reign was between the end of 19^th century and the beginning of 20^th century.  If one believes Jawar’s false claim, one must also hold Menilik and successive “imperialist” Ethiopian leaders accountable for something that happened over a century before they came to power. There is something inherently fucked-up with Oromo politics.

The second example is Jawar’s rallying cry “ጀግኖቻችን ተረስተው ሌቦች፣ ወስላታ ጠላታችን እጅ እና ጡታችንን ሲቆርጡ ከነበሩት ጋር አብሮ ከመኖር ሞቼ ብጠፋ ይሻለኛል.”

The “ጡታችንን ሲቆርጡ” refers to the false claim that Emperor Menelik brutalized women going as far as cutting their breast to terrorize the Oromo and force them into subjugation. The first time the story of breast mutilation was ever written was in 1999 in a book titled “የቡርቃ ዝምታ – የታሪካዊ ልብ ወለድ ድርሰት” (The Silence of Burqa: A Fictional History Essay.” It was written by a Tesfaye Gebreab, an Eritrean national and an ardent supporter of the Tigryan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Soon after the TPLF was dethroned, some Oromos started to speak up. For example, Addisu Arega (the current head of the Prosperity Party’s Public and International Relations Office) testified “Time and resources were spent [by TPLF] to create intractable conflict between Amhara and Oromo. Tesfaye Gebreab’s book is one example.”  [“አማራ እና ኦሮሞን የማይታረቁ እና አብረው መኖር የማይችሉ ለማስመሰል ገንዘብ ተበጅቶ ብዙ ስራ ሲሰራ ነበር። ከዛ ውስጥ አንዱ በተስፋዬ ገብረአብ የተፃፈው የቡርቃ ዝምታ መፅሃፍ አንዱ ነው።]

Addisu was not the only Oromo who accused TPLF of concocting the Anolee story. Merera Gudina, the chair of the most prominent Oromo opposition party shares Addisu’s opinion. Speaking of TPLF Merera said: They build industries in Tigray. For us they build a statue, symbolizing a mutilated breast (እነሱ መቀሌ ላይ ትልልቅ ኢንዱስትሪዎችን ይገነባሉ ለኛ ግን የተቆረጠ ጡት የሚያሳይ ሃውልት ይሰሩልናል).

Shamefully, this has not stopped Jawar and company from using the Anolee fabricated story for political gain. As noted above, his 2023 manifesto suggests “it is necessary to abandon the radical Oromo liberation agenda.” In the meantime, he insists: “The moderation of the Oromo agenda should be achieved not by throwing away and denying the claim of the struggle that has brought [the Oromo] to power…” This means the Anole statue (the emblem Oromummaa’s institutionalized lie), will remain standing.

አልፀፀትም 

In a sardonic twist of ironies, Jawar’s 2024 book is titled “አልፀፀትም” (I Have No Regrets). Leaving the title aside, the book marks the sixth milestone in his political journey.

The timing of the book release is of particular interest. He believes the Oromo-led government is tittering on the verge of collapse. This time he attributes the problem not only to the prime minister’s autocracy and his administrations utter incompetence, but also to an inherent problem with the ethnic-based political system and constitution. His 2024 narrative shows a significant departure from his 2023 manifesto.

His stop-and-go transformation shows that he calculates his actions based on the threat Oromummaa faces. The more the political dynamic weakens the Oromummaa movement, the more he is willing to incrementally distance himself from the tenets of its theology. This explains why there are stronger statements in his 2024 declaration of change compared to his 2023 manifesto.

In a sort of a convoluted way, his transformation reminds me of the proverbial frog in a boiling water.  Legend has it that 19^th century scientists threw a frog in a boiling water. The frog jumped out of the boiling water and saved itself. The same scientists put the same frog in cold water and slowly increased the temperature of the water. The frog adjusted its body temperature to the water as it boils until the temperature reached to a point that killed it. Jawar appears to be gradually adjusting to Oromummaa’s decline instead of abandoning it outright.

Jawar’d recent interviews, particularly with the BBC and Buffet of Ideas are encouraging in terms of taking more steps to distance himself from Oromummaa theology. But there are still unanswered questions, regarding how he will deal with the immovable Oromo militants who are still seduced by, and clinging to, the decomposing Oromummaa body politics. He still seems to be overly too cautious to jump ship or take the proverbial bull by the horn.

The Tension Between the Dead and the Living

There is a palpable tension between the unstoppable force of the nation’s political dynamic that have rendered Oromummaa lifeless and the immovable dogma in Oromo tribal elites who are stuck neck-deep in the Oromummaa sludge. In my view, Jawar’s problem is his desire to reconcile the dead and the living, rather than burying the dead and working with the living. The question is why?

There are two possible explanations. The first possible explanation is that he may be among those who are still seduced by the Oromummaa theology. This may explain his clinging to, at least partially, to the decomposing Oromummaa body politics. In this regard, his objective may be seeking a soft-landing spot for Oromummaa until he figures out how much of its vital organs he can salvage with a recrafted theodicy.

The second explanation is his opportunistic tendency. This assumes he knows that Oromummaa as an ideology, theology, and organizing principle is all but dead, but he needs the Oromummaa colony as his political base. His dilemma is how to deal with this colony.

His decision calculus depends on two factors. First is the possibility of galvanizing a new support base both in the Oromo tribal land and outside of it. This is a difficult undertaking in the short term. It requires gauging the reaction of those outside of the Oromo sphere. The stronger the opposition to his gesture, the less likely he will attempt this option. The second option is to work on the immovable Oromo forces to get them to move. My take is he is following the second option.

What we are witnessing in Jawar is two Kafkaesque protagonists jointly residing in his person. As noted above, the two are:  Jawar the realist who is born out of, and tamed by, the nation’s political and Jawar the opportunist who is carrying the Oromummaa casket.

In 2013, Jawar the opportunist scarified his Ethiopian identity and his oath of allegiance to his religion on the altars of Oromummaa, stating he is “Oromo First” before he is Ethiopian or Muslim. In 2024, despites all the talk about deep-retrospection and political rejuvenation, he is not ready to sacrifice the Oromummaa theology on the altars of his reform platform. In my opinion this has more to do with his fear of losing his political base than with his commitment to the Oromummaa theology.

The two Kafkaesque protagonists jointly residing in the person of Jawar are engaged in a surrealistic battle. What will come out of “አልፀፀትም” depends on who wins the battle. Who wins the battle, in turn, depends on the battlefield.

There are two battle fields. The first battlefield is where conflicting views regarding the constitutional setting and the political architecture that use tribal clutches for scaffolding are settled. The second battlefield is where Oromummaa’s false, polarizing and morally corrupt historical narratives are vetted against the truth.

Where Jawar the Realist is Prevailing

Jawar the realist has the upper hand in the first battlefield where he has taken commendable step going as far as calling for a constitutional reform. In 2023, Jawar the realist gave a public speech stressing the path Ethiopia followed under the Oromo-led government has pushed Ethiopia into an existential crisis. The political dynamic undergirded by hard reality left the realist Jawar no room but to acknowledge the problem is not with poor implementation of the constitution. The constitution is inherently flawed.

This was plenty clear in his interview with Dereje Haile of Arts Tv World that was conducted in January 2024.  First, he stated: Tribal politics may be good to mobilize and organize dissent, but it is unsuitable for democratic governance. In geek talk this means: Tribalism is primitive and degenerative and leads to a Hobbesian state of chaos and anarchy.

Second, in an interview with Moges Teshome of Buffet of Ideas, he discredited a long-standing Oromummaa strategy to deconstruct Ethiopia and construct Oromia. He emphatically stated “if Ethiopia is disintegrated there will be no Oromia, Amhara, or Tigray…” He stressed: If Ethiopia goes down, every nation and nationality will descend into Thomas Hobbes’s Leviathan state of nature where human beings live in state of anarchy confined to solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short life.

Third, once again, in his interview with Moges he stressed the constitution that amplified tribal identity politics is the problem. He went as far as calling for a new constitutional design.

Where Jawar the Opportunist is Prevailing

Where Jawar the realist is failing is in moving the immovable dogma of Oromummaa colony. The colony romanticizes Oromummaa’s false narrative as a biblical article of faith and see their adversaries as evils from hell. Calling the Oromummaa followers a cult colony is an understatement.

For example, they believe the Oromo Gedaa system is the first democratic system in the world. Never mind that Gedaa is a 16^th century phenomenon and democracy was practiced in Athens  in 508–507 before the birth of Christ. Never mind also the fact that Gedaa is one of the most savage system that used terror and slavery to build the Oromo empire in the 16^th century. But the Oromummaa crazed elites insist Geda is the most humane and genius state building enterprise.

Let us hear what Professor Mohammed Hassan says about the savagery committed by Oromo Mogassa warriors during the Oromo era of nation building. The good professor is not an Ethiopianist Oromo. He is the international representative of Oromo Shene – a full-tank and high-octane Oromummaa extremist. His book tells us that Oromo built its kingdom within the Ethiopian framework out of the debris of a demolished Christian kingdom of Amhara through “terror” and “slavery.” Here are some of the highlights of his book.

• “Oromos assimilated more than they were assimilated by others” (ኦሮሞዎችበሌሎች ከተጨፈለቁት የበለጠ ሌሎችን ጨፍልቀዋል).
• The Gedaa driven Oromo assimilation process included forcing defeated tribes to abandon their culture, language and tradition. Even worse, they held them as serfs and slaves. Gedaa’s invasion of other tribal lands and slave system was “inspired by political, military, and economic considerations.” During the Mogassa era, Oromos became “noblemen, rich in cattle and slaves,”the professor confessed.
• Mogassa warriors are the devils who attack in the evening… They fought with frenzied determination that astonished the elite of the Christian and Muslim states and terrorized the populace…
• Most of the conquered people who had earlier submitted with little or no resistance, found that they were no longer equal members of a clan within which they were incorporated, but slaves who were used as gifts and commodities for sale… Enslaving the vanquished people was an economic as well as military necessity…

The late Assefa Chabo, an Ethiopian of Gmamo origin has written extensively documenting the Neftegnas (invaders) in Gammo and other southern regions were Oromos not Amharas and people in the south referred to them as “savages”. It must be added that there is no tribal homeland in the south that the Oromo political class is not terrorizing in current Ethiopia.

I will limit my evidence only to two widely reported cases in the interest of space. One can listen to the Amaro representative pleading to the Prime Minister at the 11^th Ordinary session of the national Parliament: “The people of Amaro are surrounded by Oromo on three directions. We are denied access to other regions. It is hard to explain our suffering in words. We are invaded and butchered, and our existence as an ethnic group is in peril.”

One can also listen to helpless women in Harar crying. “Who will stand up for Harar. They have chased us. It is Over. At this rate, we won’t find means to even be buried.”

Jawar the Oromummaa opportunist gives such people valueless lip service, without taking any meaningful actions to back it up. In November 2019, he assured southern tribes his support, stating: ”I will fight and die for you if somebody from Oromo want to colonize you because I know how detrimental colonialism has been to our people!”

In his 2023 manifesto, Jawar acknowledged the Oromo-led government was in violation of the constitutional rights of non-Oromo tribes. Nonetheless, he forewarned Oromos “It doesn’t do much good to be completely hostile to the regime when the Oromo faction is in power.”

Moral Fortitude: The Missing Element in Jawar’s Transformation

It is not uncommon to see political figures evolving over time and taking a radical departure from their past. History has witnessed slave owners turn into leaders of anti-slavery movements. History has also left footprints of advocates of colonialism who turned into ardent critics of it. Such transformation comes with moral fortitude that requires acknowledgment of past mistakes, contrition, repentance, and redemption.

Those who were slave owners did not become part of the anti-slavery movement without morally, socially, and intellectually condemning slavery. The problem with Jawar is that he still clings to Oromummaa historical narrative while professing to be an agent of change.

As noted above, one cannot embrace the false narratives of Oromummaa that was curated and propagated to sow tribal discord and talk about reconciliation. The first challenge Jawar must overcome is freeing the Oromo youth from the poisons of Oromummaa false narrative. This is where the most important litmus test come into play.

The second challenge is winning the trust of the non-Oromo universe. This, too, requires acknowledging past mistakes, contrition, repentance, and redemption. The sooner he realizes this the more likely his transformation campaign can succeed.

Turning a Lemon into Lemonade

Ethiopians of all political persuasion, tribe and creed are faced with a dilemma. To accept Jawar and work with him with all its shortcomings or ignore his transformation platform to shorten the life of the Boy King. Only a fool will ignore his transformation as negative development. Similarly, only a fool will take his political comeback on its face value, or give him the benefit of the doubt, given his track record.

What is needed is a careful examination of his comeback, challenging where he needs to be challenged, designing a nuanced strategy to bend his political trajectory away from Oromummaa, and mitigating negative developments if and when they arise. The science of game theory teaches us a person’s behavior in a competitive environment depends on the behavior of his competition.  How Ethiopian handle Jawar will influence his decision matrix for good or bad.

Right or wrong, Jawar cannot shoulder the duty of saving Ethiopia. The hermitized Ethiopianist, Amhara and Tigray elites need to be challenged. Unfortunately, they share Oromummaa’s culture of whining and bitching rather than developing a competing strategy.

During his interview with Moges Teshome, Jawar announced he is establishing a forum to foster open dialogue. This is a welcome development. But Ethiopians must not rely on a forum he controls. Different groups need to establish different forums to discuss the need for a transformative change.

The first critical step is to thwart the existential crisis. This requires an open dialogue. The fact that the conflict between Ethiopian opposition forces is stronger than the conflict between them and the government has made it impossible to form a coalition to engage the government, much less to create a critical mass to challenge it.

Unfortunately, the absence of a democratic dialogue and the failure to reconcile differences within the Amhara opposition camps is as elusive and as tenuous as the absence of a national dialogue and reconciliation. The same is the case with the Tigryan community. This is a critical area that requires open dialogue. In the interest of space, I will not dwell on it here. I direct you to look at my article titled “Quantum Physics and the Quest for the Elusive National Dialogue in Ethiopia.”

In the past Jawar limited his public discourse on friendly forums and always appeared alone or with friendly partners. In his interview, Jawar said: “I am ready ከሴጣንም ጋር ቢሆን ለመወያየት.” I am open to discuss this article with Jawar if he is open to engage in a public forum. Once again, Moges can facilitate this. My challenge is a litmus test if he is a changed man.

There will be time for transitional justice to address past human rights violations, with the aim of establishing accountability, rendering justice, and facilitating reconciliation. Any effort for dialogue and reconciliation must be welcomed even if it has limitations as is the case with Jawars transformation.

The alternative is the psychopathic Boy King who is driving the nation to a cliff with a full tank of highly flammable fuel at a maximum speed. One governing dilemma the hermitized Ethiopianist and Amhara colonies share with Jawar is “ጨው ለራስህ ስትል ጣፍጥ” dilemma. This is their Come to Jesus Moment.

#የዳንግላ_መረጃ‼️

በዛሬው ዕለት የአማራ ፋኖ በጎጃም ጎጃም አገው ምድር 3ኛ ክ/ጦር ቢተወደድ መንገሻ ጀምበሬ ብርጌድ ዳንግላ ከተማ በመግባት ባደረገው አስደናቂ ተጋድሎና በፋኖ ቁጥትር ስር ውስጥ የዋሉ ሚኒሻና የወረዳው ካድሬዎች በጠቅላላ ገቢ ሆኑ pic.twitter.com/q9bareJNxz

— አባት ሀገር አማራ(Robel Worku) (@Robelworku12602) January 6, 2025