“The Fish Rots from the Head” Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership Crisis is Systemic…Part 2

By Amsal Woreta
August 21, 2024

The image depicts a decaying fish head on a map of Ethiopia, surrounded by symbols of distress, conveying the atmosphere of a nation in turmoil.

Ethnic Tensions and National Disunity

When leadership fails to address underlying societal issues such as ethnic tensions, these problems can fester and eventually lead to widespread disunity and conflict. The characterization of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership as “rotten” in the context of escalating ethnic tensions and national disunity highlights a deep sense of dissatisfaction and concern regarding his governance. This perspective suggests that under his leadership, Ethiopia has experienced a significant deterioration in social cohesion, stability, and national unity. Below is an analysis of how this leadership has contributed to the spiral of ethnic tensions and national disunity:

1. Failed Promises of Reform:

• Initial Optimism vs. Reality: When Abiy Ahmed first came to power in 2018, there was widespread optimism about his promises of political reform, democratization, and national reconciliation. However, many of these promises have either not been fulfilled or have led to unintended negative consequences. The initial hope for unity and progress has been replaced by disillusionment as ethnic tensions have intensified under his rule.
• Political Instability: Abiy’s leadership has been marked by increasing political instability. His attempts to balance the interests of Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic groups have often backfired, leading to greater fragmentation and discontent. The political space initially opened has been constricted once again as his government struggles to maintain control.

2. Aggravation of Ethnic Tensions:

• Centralization of Power: Abiy Ahmed’s centralization of power is seen by many as a key factor in the aggravation of ethnic tensions. By concentrating power in the hands of the federal government and sidelining regional authorities, he has alienated many ethnic groups who feel that their autonomy and rights are being eroded. This has fueled ethnic nationalism and resentment against the central government.
• Ethnic-Based Violence: Under Abiy’s leadership, ethnic-based violence has surged, with various groups engaging in deadly clashes over land, resources, and political representation. The government’s response has often been criticized as either too weak or too heavy-handed, exacerbating the situation rather than resolving it. This violence has led to the displacement of millions and has created deep divisions within the country.

3. Erosion of National Unity:

• Ethnic Polarization: The increasing ethnic polarization under Abiy’s leadership has eroded the sense of national unity. Instead of fostering an inclusive Ethiopian identity, his administration is perceived to have allowed or even contributed to the deepening of ethnic divisions. This has weakened the fabric of the nation, making it more difficult to achieve consensus on critical national issues.

• Weakening of Institutions: The weakening of state institutions under Abiy’s leadership has further undermined national unity. Institutions that are supposed to be neutral and serve all Ethiopians, regardless of ethnicity, have become politicized or ineffective. This has led to a loss of trust in the government and a sense of alienation among various ethnic groups.

3. Conflict in Tigray and Beyond:

• Tigray Conflict: The conflict in Tigray is the most glaring example of the failure of Abiy’s leadership to maintain national unity. What began as a political dispute escalated into a full-scale war, with devastating consequences for the people of Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia. The conflict has not only caused immense human suffering but has also deepened the ethnic divide in the country.
• Spread of Violence: The violence has not been confined to Tigray. Other regions, such as Oromia, Amhara, and Benishangul-Gumuz, have also experienced significant unrest and ethnic violence. These conflicts are often interconnected, with grievances in one region spilling over into others, further destabilizing the country.

The situation in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, which escalated from a disarmament initiative to a full-fledged war, serves as a critical example of what many consider to be a significant misstep in Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. This conflict highlights how the approach taken by the Ethiopian government, under Abiy’s direction, has not only failed to achieve its intended goals but has also led to severe consequences for national stability.

1. Context of the Disarmament Initiative:

• Federal vs. Regional Dynamics: Ethiopia’s federal system is characterized by a delicate balance of power between the central government and regional states, each defined along ethnic lines. The Amhara region, with its own regional security forces and militias like Fano, has played a crucial role in local governance and security.
• Government’s Intentions: The Ethiopian government, under Abiy Ahmed, launched a disarmament campaign targeting regional militias, including those in the Amhara region. The official rationale was to curb the proliferation of arms and enhance national security by consolidating control over all armed groups.

2. Perception of Disarmament in Amhara:

• Mistrust and Fear: The disarmament initiative was perceived by many in the Amhara region as an attempt to weaken their ability to protect themselves, particularly considering ongoing ethnic conflicts and territorial disputes with neighboring regions like Tigray and Oromia. This perception was fueled by historical grievances and a deep-seated mistrust of the federal government’s intentions.
• Resistance and Mobilization: Instead of cooperating with the disarmament effort, local militias and the broader Amhara population resisted, viewing it as an existential threat. The region’s militias, particularly Fano, which had been instrumental during the Tigray conflict, saw disarmament as a betrayal and a direct attack on their ability to safeguard their communities.

2. Escalation to Full-Fledged War:

• Breakdown of Dialogue: The Ethiopian government’s inability or unwillingness to engage in meaningful dialogue with Amhara leaders and address their concerns led to a rapid deterioration of the situation. What started as a disarmament operation soon spiraled into open conflict as resistance turned into armed confrontation.
• Military Engagement: The federal government responded to the resistance with a heavy military crackdown, deploying troops to enforce disarmament. This approach led to widespread violence, with clashes between federal forces and Amhara militias escalating into a full-fledged war across the region.

3. Consequences of the Conflict:

• Humanitarian Crisis: The war in the Amhara region has resulted in significant casualties, widespread displacement, and a severe humanitarian crisis. Thousands of civilians have been killed or displaced, with many more suffering due to the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
• Human Rights Violations: Reports of human rights abuses have emerged from both sides of the conflict. These include allegations of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and attacks on civilians, contributing to a worsening of the overall human rights situation in the region.

4. Critique of Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership:

• Strategic Misstep: Abiy Ahmed’s decision to prioritize disarmament in the Amhara region, without adequately addressing the underlying tensions and grievances, is widely viewed as a significant strategic misstep. The lack of a

comprehensive approach that included dialogue and confidence-building measures has been criticized for exacerbating rather than alleviating the situation.

• Centralization vs. Autonomy: Abiy’s approach has been seen as an attempt to centralize power at the expense of regional autonomy. In a country as diverse and ethnically divided as Ethiopia, this approach has led to increased tensions and resistance from regions that feel their autonomy is under threat.

5. Broader Implications for Ethiopia:

• National Disunity: The conflict in the Amhara region reflects broader national disunity under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Ethnic tensions have been inflamed across the country, leading to a fractured society where trust in the federal government is rapidly eroding.
• Potential for Further Escalation: The war in the Amhara region could potentially trigger further conflicts in other parts of the country, as other regions might resist similar disarmament efforts or centralization attempts. This poses a significant risk to the overall stability and unity of Ethiopia.

6. Need for a Change in Approach:

• Dialogue and Reconciliation: Resolving the conflict in the Amhara region will require a significant shift in the government’s approach. Rather than relying on military force, there is a need for inclusive dialogue and reconciliation efforts that address the underlying causes of the conflict, including ethnic grievances and demands for regional autonomy.

Strengthening Regional Governance: To prevent further conflicts, there needs to be a renewed focus on strengthening regional governance and ensuring that regional concerns are adequately represented and addressed at the federal level. This could help rebuild trust and foster greater cooperation between the federal government and regional states. 8. Outlook:

• Challenges to Peace: The path to peace in the Amhara region is fraught with challenges. The deep mistrust between the federal government and the Amhara region, combined with the ongoing violence, makes it difficult to envision a quick resolution. However, without significant efforts to change the current trajectory, the conflict is likely to persist, leading to further instability.
• Implications for Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership: The conflict in the Amhara region has further tarnished Abiy Ahmed’s reputation, both domestically and

internationally. His leadership is increasingly seen as failing to unite the country and address its complex ethnic dynamics. The long-term consequences of this conflict could be profound, potentially leading to calls for new leadership or significant changes in governance.

In conclusion, the escalation of conflict in the Amhara region from a disarmament initiative to a full-fledged war is a clear example of the missteps in Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. The failure to address the concerns of the Amhara people and the reliance on military force have led to devastating consequences, not only for the region but for Ethiopia as a whole. Moving forward, there is an urgent need for a change in approach to prevent further escalation and to begin the process of healing and reconciliation in the country.