By Amsal Woreta
August 21, 2024

The image depicts a decaying fish head on a map of Ethiopia, surrounded by symbols of distress, conveying the atmosphere of a nation in turmoil.

The proverb “the fish rots from the head” suggests that the failure or corruption of a system often begins at the top, with leadership. Since 2020, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership in Ethiopia has provided a vivid illustration of this concept. The challenges and crises that have emerged under his administration highlight how decisions and actions at the highest levels of government can lead to widespread impoverishments, theft, corruption, instability and decay within a nation.

The lack of a clear and compelling vision in a leader is detrimental to a country’s progress and well-being.

I shall identify key components

Absence of Direction:

A leader without a clear and sharp vision cannot provide a roadmap for his or her country’s development. This leads to a lack of direction and ad-hoc decision-making, hindering progress and causing confusion among the population. This is discussed below:

Low Morale and Motivation:

When citizens do not see a positive future or have no inspiring goals to work towards, their morale and motivation plummet. This can lead to widespread apathy and disengagement, further hindering development.

Missed Opportunities:

A lack of vision can cause a leader to miss potential opportunities for growth and progress. Without a clear understanding of the country’s strengths and weaknesses, leaders may fail to capitalize on available resources or address pressing challenges. Their tendency is to confuse glitz like projects with progress.

Inefficient Resource Allocation:

In the absence of a sharp vision, resources may be allocated or misallocated inefficiently, leading to wastage, and missed priorities. This can exacerbate existing problems and create new ones.

Inefficient Resource Allocation: The fifteen-billion-dollar Palace Investment

Inefficient resource allocation is a hallmark of leadership failure, where decisions made at the top prioritize prestige projects over the essential needs of the population. A striking example of this under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership is the allocation of approximately $15 billion to fund the construction of a lavish palace complex.

Economic Mismanagement and Public Discontent

Economic policies and management at the top leadership level are critical to national stability. Poor leadership can lead to economic turmoil, creating widespread public discontent and contributing to national decline.

When leaders prioritize short-term gains or personal interests over the broader economic well-being, the consequences can be devastating for the entire nation.

Abiy’s economic policies, particularly the push for privatization and foreign investment, have benefited a select few who adores him whiles leaving much of the population behind. The economic mismanagement became particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated existing vulnerabilities in the economy. Rising unemployment, inflation, and public frustration are direct outcomes of leadership decisions that failed to address the needs of the broader population. This economic discontent has further fueled instability and eroded public trust in the government.

Alleviating poverty for the masses should be the top priority for any leader. While palaces, war, and parks might have some cultural or historical significance, they do not address the basic needs of the people. A leader’s primary responsibility is to ensure the well-being of their citizens, and this includes providing access to food, clean water, healthcare, education, and economic opportunities.

Investing in these areas will lead to a more prosperous and stable society overall.

This decision to sideline the basic needs of the people is emblematic of a leader whose priorities are misaligned with the urgent needs of the nation, reflecting the broader concept of a “rotten head” in leadership quality.

The Opportunity Cost of Misallocation:

The opportunity cost of such an investment is enormous. By channeling resources into a palace, the government misses the chance to build infrastructure that could have supported long-term economic development. Factories, for instance, could have diversified the economy, reduced reliance on imports, and provided a foundation for sustainable growth.

The creation of jobs in the manufacturing sector would have had a multiplier effect, improving the livelihoods of many and boosting local economies. Instead, the palace investment represents a one-time expenditure with limited, if any, return on investment for the broader society.

Social and Political Instability:

A leader’s lack of vision can create a vacuum that other self-interested groups and liberation fronts with specific goals like establishing the Oroommoma state and government would fill their agenda instead of one strong and prosperous nation. This can lead to social unrest, political instability, and even conflict.

The Palace vs. Productive Investments

Ethiopia is a country with significant economic challenges, including widespread poverty, unemployment, and underdevelopment. The decision to invest a staggering fifteen billion dollars for a Palace, rather than in productive sectors like manufacturing, is a clear indicator of inefficient resource allocation. Factories and industrial development could have provided jobs, stimulated economic growth, and helped alleviate poverty.

In contrast, a palace serves little to no economic purpose for the general population and stands as a symbol of opulence disconnected from the realities of most Ethiopians.

Overall, a lack of vision in a leader is a recipe for stagnation, missed opportunities, and potential disaster.

A visionary leader, on the other hand, can inspire the population, unite them towards common goals, and steer the country towards a brighter future.

Centralization of Power and the Weakening of National Institutions

When top leadership centralizes power and undermines institutional checks and balances, it often leads to a breakdown in the effectiveness and integrity of those institutions. A strong, independent bureaucracy is essential for maintaining governance. If and when leadership fails, these structures are compromised, leading to widespread inefficiency and corruption.

Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership:

Since 2020, Abiy Ahmed has increasingly centralized power, often sidelining regional authorities and institutions that were critical to Ethiopia’s federal system.

This centralization has weakened regional governments, undermined the autonomy of key institutions, and led to a perception of a power grab. The resulting institutional decay is manifested in various forms, from the inability to effectively manage ethnic conflicts to the erosion of trust in the electoral process.

The audit report presented to the Ethiopian Parliament reveals significant instances of grand corruption, indeed indicative of broader concerns about centralization of power under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, his Prosperity Party and the concurrent weakening of state institutions.

VIII. Centralization of Power at a Cost to Ethiopia

Control Over Key Institutions: Under Abiy Ahmed, there has been a noticeable shift towards greater central control over key government institutions. This centralization often comes at the expense of regional autonomy and institutional independence. The audit report can be seen as a symptom of this centralization, where power is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few, allowing for less transparency and oversight.

Erosion of Checks and Balances: The centralization of power often weakens the traditional checks and balances that are supposed to hold government officials accountable. When power is centralized, institutions that are meant to act independently, such as the judiciary, anti-corruption bodies, and even the parliament, may become less effective. This creates an environment where corruption can flourish because the oversight mechanisms are either compromised or ineffective.

IX The Weakening of National Institutions:

Institutional Decay: The audit report highlights the weakening of institutions that are supposed to prevent corruption. When institutions such as the auditor general’s office, the judiciary, or anti-corruption commissions are undermined or co-opted, they lose their ability to function effectively. This leads to a situation where corruption is not only possible but goes unpunished.

Reduced Accountability: The weakening of institutions is linked to reduced accountability for those in power. In a well-functioning system, strong institutions ensure that even those at the highest levels of government are held accountable. However, as institutions are weakened, those in power can act with impunity, leading to widespread corruption.

Impact on Governance: The weakening of institutions has a broader impact on governance and the rule of law. It creates a culture where corruption is normalized, and where public resources are misused for personal or political gain. This not only undermines public trust in government but also hinders the country’s development by diverting resources away from essential services and infrastructure.

What are the Implications for Ethiopia?

Political and Economic Stability: The centralization of power and weakening of institutions can have serious implications for Ethiopia’s political and economic stability. As corruption becomes moreentrenched, it can lead to increased public discontent, social unrest, and a loss of investor confidence.
Challenges to Reform: Addressing these issues will be challenging because they are deeply entrenched in the current political system. Reforming institutions and decentralizing power would require significant political will and could face resistance from those who benefit from the status quo.

In summary, the audit report is not just a revelation of grand corruption but also a reflection of the broader issues of centralization of power and weakening of institutions under Abiy Ahmed’s administration. It highlights the risks associated with concentrating power in the hands of a few and the importance of strong, independent institutions in maintaining transparency, accountability, and the rule of law.

Ethnic Tensions and National Disunity

When leadership fails to address underlying societal issues such as ethnic tensions, these problems can fester and eventually lead to widespread disunity and conflict. The characterization of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership as “rotten” in the context of escalating ethnic tensions and national disunity highlights a deep sense of dissatisfaction and concern regarding his governance. This perspective suggests that under his leadership, Ethiopia has experienced a significant deterioration in social cohesion, stability, and national unity. Below is an analysis of how this leadership has contributed to the spiral of ethnic tensions and national disunity:

Failed Promises of Reform:

Initial Optimism vs. Reality: When Abiy Ahmed first came to power in 2018, there was widespread optimism about his promises of political reform, democratization, and national reconciliation. However, many of these promises have either not been fulfilled or have led to unintended negative consequences. The initial hope for unity and progress has been replaced by disillusionment as ethnic tensions have intensified under his rule.
Political Instability: Abiy’s leadership has been marked by increasing political instability. His attempts to balance the interests of Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic groups have often backfired, leading to greater fragmentation and discontent. The political space initially opened has been constricted once again as his government struggles to maintain control.

Aggravation of Ethnic Tensions:

Centralization of Power: Abiy Ahmed’s centralization of power is seen by many as a key factor in the aggravation of ethnic tensions. By concentrating power in the hands of the federal government and sidelining regional authorities, he has alienated many ethnic groups who feel that their autonomy and rights are being eroded. This has fueled ethnic nationalism and resentment against the central government.
Ethnic-Based Violence: Under Abiy’s leadership, ethnic-based violence has surged, with various groups engaging in deadly clashes over land, resources, and political representation. The government’s response has often been criticized as either too weak or too heavy-handed, exacerbating the situation rather than resolving it. This violence has led to the displacement of millions and has created deep divisions within the country.

Erosion of National Unity:

Ethnic Polarization: The increasing ethnic polarization under Abiy’s leadership has eroded the sense of national unity. Instead of fostering an inclusive Ethiopian identity, his administration is perceived to have allowed or even contributed to the deepening of ethnic divisions. This has weakened the fabric of the nation, making it more difficult to achieve consensus on critical national issues.
Weakening of Institutions: The weakening of state institutions under Abiy’s leadership has further undermined national unity. Institutions that are supposed to be neutral and serve all Ethiopians, regardless of ethnicity, have become politicized or ineffective. This has led to a loss of trust in the government and a sense of alienation among various ethnic groups.

Conflict in Tigray and Beyond:

Tigray Conflict: The conflict in Tigray is the most glaring example of the failure of Abiy’s leadership to maintain national unity. What began as a political dispute escalated into a full-scale war, with devastating consequences for the people of Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia. The conflict has not only caused immense human suffering but has also deepened the ethnic divide in the country.
Spread of Violence: The violence has not been confined to Tigray. Other regions, such as Oromia, Amhara, and Benishangul-Gumuz, have also experienced significant unrest and ethnic violence. These conflicts are often interconnected, with grievances in one region spilling over into others, further destabilizing the country.

The situation in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, which escalated from a disarmament initiative to a full-fledged war, serves as a critical example of what many consider to be a significant misstep in Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. This conflict highlights how the approach taken by the Ethiopian government, under Abiy’s direction, has not only failed to achieve its intended goals but has also led to severe consequences for national stability.

Context of the Disarmament Initiative:

Federal vs. Regional Dynamics: Ethiopia’s federal system is characterized by a delicate balance of power between the central government and regional states, each defined along ethnic lines. The Amhara region, with its own regional security forces and militias like Fano, has played a crucial role in local governance and security.
Government’s Intentions: The Ethiopian government, under Abiy Ahmed, launched a disarmament campaign targeting regional militias, including those in the Amhara region. The official rationale was to curb the proliferation of arms and enhance national security by consolidating control over all armed groups.

Perception of Disarmament in Amhara:

Mistrust and Fear: The disarmament initiative was perceived by many in the Amhara region as an attempt to weaken their ability to protect themselves, particularly considering ongoing ethnic conflicts and territorial disputes with neighboring regions like Tigray and Oromia. This perception was fueled by historical grievances and a deep-seated mistrust of the federal government’s intentions.
Resistance and Mobilization: Instead of cooperating with the disarmament effort, local militias and the broader Amhara population resisted, viewing it as an existential threat. The region’s militias, particularly Fano, which had been instrumental during the Tigray conflict, saw disarmament as a betrayal and a direct attack on their ability to safeguard their communities.

Escalation to Full-Fledged War:

Breakdown of Dialogue: The Ethiopian government’s inability or unwillingness to engage in meaningful dialogue with Amhara leaders and address their concerns led to a rapid deterioration of the situation. What started as a disarmament operation soon spiraled into open conflict as resistance turned into armed confrontation.
Military Engagement: The federal government responded to the resistance with a heavy military crackdown, deploying troops to enforce disarmament. This approach led to widespread violence, with clashes between federal forces and Amhara militias escalating into a full-fledged war across the region.

Consequences of the Conflict:

Humanitarian Crisis: The war in the Amhara region has resulted in significant casualties, widespread displacement, and a severe humanitarian crisis. Thousands of civilians have been killed or displaced, with many more suffering due to the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
Human Rights Violations: Reports of human rights abuses have emerged from both sides of the conflict. These include allegations of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and attacks on civilians, contributing to a worsening of the overall human rights situation in the region.

Critique of Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership:

Strategic Misstep: Abiy Ahmed’s decision to prioritize disarmament in the Amhara region, without adequately addressing the underlying tensions and grievances, is widely viewed as a significant strategic misstep. The lack of a comprehensive approach that included dialogue and confidence-building measures has been criticized for exacerbating rather than alleviating the situation.
Centralization vs. Autonomy: Abiy’s approach has been seen as an attempt to centralize power at the expense of regional autonomy. In a country as diverse and ethnically divided as Ethiopia, this approach has led to increased tensions and resistance from regions that feel their autonomy is under threat.

Broader Implications for Ethiopia:

National Disunity: The conflict in the Amhara region reflects broader national disunity under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Ethnic tensions have been inflamed across the country, leading to a fractured society where trust in the federal government is rapidly eroding.
Potential for Further Escalation: The war in the Amhara region could potentially trigger further conflicts in other parts of the country, as other regions might resist similar disarmament efforts or centralization attempts. This poses a significant risk to the overall stability and unity of Ethiopia.

Need for a Change in Approach:

Dialogue and Reconciliation: Resolving the conflict in the Amhara region will require a significant shift in the government’s approach. Rather than relying on military force, there is a need for inclusive dialogue and reconciliation efforts that address the underlying causes of the conflict, including ethnic grievances and demands for regional autonomy.
Strengthening Regional Governance: To prevent further conflicts, there needs to be a renewed focus on strengthening regional governance and ensuring that regional concerns are adequately represented and addressed at the federal level. This could help rebuild trust and foster greater cooperation between the federal government and regional states.

Outlook:

Challenges to Peace: The path to peace in the Amhara region is fraught with challenges. The deep mistrust between the federal government and the Amhara region, combined with the ongoing violence, makes it difficult to envision a quick resolution. However, without significant efforts to change the current trajectory, the conflict is likely to persist, leading to further instability.
Implications for Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership: The conflict in the Amhara region has further tarnished Abiy Ahmed’s reputation, both domestically and internationally. His leadership is increasingly seen as failing to unite the country and address its complex ethnic dynamics. The long-term consequences of this conflict could be profound, potentially leading to calls for new leadership or significant changes in governance.

In conclusion, the escalation of conflict in the Amhara region from a disarmament initiative to a full-fledged war is a clear example of the missteps in Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. The failure to address the concerns of the Amhara people and the reliance on military force have led to devastating consequences, not only for the region but for Ethiopia as a whole. Moving forward, there is an urgent need for a change in approach to prevent further escalation and to begin the process of healing and reconciliation in the country.

Authoritarian Turn:

Crackdown on Dissent: In response to the growing unrest, Abiy’s government has increasingly turned to authoritarian measures to maintain control. This includes crackdowns on opposition groups, journalists, and activists, many of whom accuse the government of stifling dissent and suppressing ethnic identities. This authoritarian turn has alienated many Ethiopians and increased the sense of national disunity.
Erosion of Democratic Gains: The initial democratic gains made under Abiy’s leadership have been undone by his government’s actions. The promise of greater freedom and participation in the political process has given way to repression and fear, further weakening the prospects for national reconciliation and unity.

International Perception and Isolation:

The leadership style and actions of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, particularly his aggressive rhetoric and approach to governance, have increasingly been viewed as destabilizing not just for Ethiopia, but for the broader Horn of Africa region. His leadership has created significant internal and external challenges, raising concerns about the safety and stability of Ethiopia’s 130 million citizens and the potential ripple effects across neighboring countries.

Reckless and Destabilizing Rhetoric:

Inflammatory Comments: Abiy Ahmed has been criticized for making inflammatory and divisive comments that exacerbate ethnic tensions within Ethiopia. Instead of promoting national unity and reconciliation, his rhetoric has often fueled existing grievances and deepened the divide between different ethnic groups. Such comments have been seen as reckless, given the already volatile situation in the country.
Escalation of Conflicts: The Prime Minister’s statements and actions have at times appeared to endorse or legitimize the use of force against dissenting regions or groups, contributing to the escalation of conflicts. This has been particularly evident in the Amhara and Tigray regions, where his leadership has been associated with the intensification of violence and instability.

Bullying Leadership Style:

Centralization of Power: Abiy Ahmed’s leadership style has been characterized by a strong centralization of power, often at the expense of regional autonomy. This approach has involved sidelining political opponents, suppressing dissent, and using the military to enforce federal authority. Such tactics have alienated many Ethiopians and are seen as a form of political bullying that undermines the principles of federalism and democracy.
Suppression of Opposition: Abiy’s government has been accused of cracking down on opposition figures, journalists, and activists who criticize his policies. This suppression of free speech and political opposition has further polarized the country and contributed to a climate of fear and repression, making it difficult for constructive dialogue and peaceful resolution of conflicts to take place.

Threat to the Horn of Africa:

Regional Destabilization: Ethiopia is a key player in the Horn of Africa, and instability within its borders has significant implications for the entire region. The conflicts in Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray and Amhara, have already spilled over into neighboring countries like Sudan and Eritrea, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Refugee Crisis: The violence and instability in Ethiopia have led to a significant refugee crisis, with thousands fleeing to neighboring countries. This influx of refugees places a strain on resources and security in these countries, potentially destabilizing the region further.
Proxy Conflicts: The involvement of external actors in Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, particularly in the Tigray war, has raised concerns about the Horn of Africa becoming a battleground for proxy wars. This not only threatens Ethiopia’s sovereignty but also risks dragging the entire region into a prolonged and complex conflict.

Impact on 130 million Ethiopians:

Humanitarian Catastrophe: Abiy Ahmed’s leadership has been associated with significant human suffering. The ongoing conflicts have led to widespread displacement, food insecurity, and human rights abuses. Millions of Ethiopians are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, and the government’s failure to address these issues adequately has put countless lives at risk.
Economic Decline: The instability and conflict under Abiy’s leadership have also taken a severe toll on Ethiopia’s economy. The destruction of infrastructure, loss of livelihoods, and disruption of trade have plunged the country into an economic crisis. This economic decline exacerbates poverty and inequality, further destabilizing the social fabric of the nation.

International Perception and Isolation:

Eroding Global Support: Abiy Ahmed’s initial image as a reformer and peacemaker has eroded significantly due to his handling of internal conflicts and his leadership style. The international community, which once celebrated his reforms, is now increasingly critical of his actions. This has led to Ethiopia’s growing isolation on the global stage, with potential consequences for foreign aid, investment, and diplomatic relations.
Human Rights Concerns: The international community has expressed grave concerns over human rights violations committed under Abiy’s leadership. Reports of atrocities in the Tigray and Amhara regions, as well as the suppression of dissent, have drawn condemnation and calls for accountability. This negative international perception further complicates Ethiopia’s ability to engage positively with the world.

Long-Term Consequences:

Risk of State Collapse: The combination of ethnic tensions, economic decline, and political repression under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership raises the specter of state collapse. If the current trajectory continues, Ethiopia could face further fragmentation, with regions potentially seeking greater autonomy or even independence. This would have devastating consequences for the country’s unity and stability.
Need for Leadership Change: Many argue that Ethiopia’s future stability and prosperity depend on a change in leadership. A leader who prioritizes dialogue, reconciliation, and inclusive governance is urgently needed to address the deep-seated issues that have been exacerbated under Abiy’s rule. Without such a change, the risk of continued conflict and instability remains high.

In conclusion, Abiy Ahmed’s reckless and destabilizing comments, coupled with his bullying leadership style, have significantly endangered the future of Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa. His approach has deepened ethnic divisions, fueled conflicts, and led to widespread suffering for millions of Ethiopians. As a result, his leadership is increasingly seen as a threat to both his country and the region, with long-term consequences that could be dire if not addressed. The need for a more inclusive, conciliatory, and democratic approach to governance in Ethiopia is more urgent than ever.

The Tigray conflict and the most resent war he waged in the Amhara region are stark examples of how leadership failures at the top can fuel deeper divisions. Instead of fostering national unity, Abiy’s approach has often been as favoring certain groups over others, leading to widespread violence, displacement, and a fracturing of the Ethiopian state. The leadership’s failure to manage these tensions has created a cycle of conflict that continues to destabilize the country.

Democratic Backsliding and Human Rights Violations

“The Fish Rots from the Head”: Leadership that disregards democratic principles and human rights can lead to widespread repression and the erosion of civil liberties. When those at the top engage in authoritarian practices, it often sets a precedent for lower levels of government, leading to a culture of impunity and widespread abuses.

Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership: After initially praise as a reformer, Abiy’s government has faced accusations of democratic backsliding and human rights violations since 2020. The postponement of elections, crackdowns on opposition, and suppression of media freedom are indicative of a shift towards authoritarianism. These actions have not only tarnished Abiy’s reputation but have also undermined Ethiopia’s democratic institutions, leading to a decline in political freedoms and an increase in state-sponsored violence. The leadership’s actions at the top have had a ripple effect, contributing to a broader climate of repression and fear.

International Relations and Global Standing

“The Fish Rots from the Head”: Leadership failures can also have significant implications for a nation’s international relations. Poor leadership can lead to isolation, loss of credibility, and strained diplomatic relationships, which can further compound a nation’s internal challenges.

Abiy Ahmed’s Leadership: Ethiopia’s international standing has suffered under Abiy’s leadership, particularly due to the handling of the Tigray conflict and the reported human rights abuses. Once celebrated as a peacemaker and a Nobel laureate, Abiy has seen his international reputation decline sharply. The threat of sanctions and the growing isolation from international partners reflect the consequences of leadership decisions that have alienated Ethiopia on the global stage. This loss of international goodwill has further weakened Ethiopia’s position in regional and global affairs, exacerbating its internal challenges.

Conclusion

The comparison between “the fish rots from the head” and Abiy Ahmed’s leadership crisis since 2020 highlights the profound impact that leadership can have on the health and stability of a nation. Abiy’s centralization of power, mismanagement of ethnic tensions, economic policies, democratic backsliding, and declining international relations all demonstrate how failures at the top can lead to widespread decay and dysfunction. The challenges facing Ethiopia today are deeply rooted in leadership decisions that have set the country on a path of fragmentation and conflict, underscoring the critical importance of strong, accountable, and inclusive leadership in preventing national decline.