Dr. Mengistu Musie
Mmusie2@gmail.com

As of August 13, 2024, the situation in the Amhara region has deteriorated drastically, with Abiy Ahmed launching a third round of offensives to crush the Amhara Fano movement. This latest wave of violence against the Amhara people has reached unprecedented levels. To strengthen the crackdown, an additional 30,000 soldiers were deployed in the Gojam region, led by three generals. However, instead of quelling the resistance, this maneuver has bolstered the Fano fighters’ defensive strategies. In numerous regions, the Amhara militants have captured many government soldiers and heavy artillery.

Reports from across the region provide a bleak picture of the escalating situation. Credible reports of civilian killings are emerging from different regions, including the regional capital, Bahir Dar. The situation has also deteriorated in other parts of the Amhara region, with an unknown number of additional military personnel deployed to Gonder and Shewa. These reinforcements appear to be part of a larger plan focused not only at combatting militants, but also at controlling the civilian population, whom the government accuses of supporting the Fano—a group it alleges is a direct result of the Amhara people’s resistance.

The failed deployment

The deployment of such a large military force has failed to quell the resistance, instead aggravated the situation. Eyewitnesses and local sources reported that the government forces have been indiscriminately targeting civilians, with little regard for distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants. The military’s heavy-handed tactics have led to widespread atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and the destruction of property. Villages and towns across the Amhara region have been subjected to brutal assaults, with entire communities being uprooted and displaced. The fear and uncertainty gripping the region have only fueled the anger and resentment among the local population, leading to further unrest and resistance.

The regional capital, Bahir Dar, has become a focal point of violence, with numerous reports of civilian casualties emerging from the city. Residents describe scenes of chaos and terror as government forces conduct house-to-house searches, detaining anyone suspected of having ties to the Fano militia or of harboring anti-government sentiments. Once bustling with activity, the city’s streets are now eerily quiet, with businesses shuttered and people afraid to leave their homes. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the injured, and the local infrastructure is straining under the weight of the ongoing conflict.

In Gonder and Shewa, the situation is similarly dire. The additional military forces deployed to these regions have been accused of carrying out massacres of civilians, with little to no accountability for their actions. The government’s narrative that the Fano militia is a direct product of the Amhara people’s resistance has only served to justify these brutal tactics in the eyes of the authorities. However, this narrative is increasingly being challenged by human rights organizations, local activists, and foreign observers increasingly challenging this narrative, claiming that the government’s actions constitute collective punishment of the Amhara people.

The atrocities committed have sparked widespread outrage and condemnation, both within Ethiopia and from the international community. The Amhara region, already suffering from economic hardships and social tensions, is now on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. Thousands of people have been displaced by the violence, forced to flee their homes with just the clothes on their backs. The influx of refugees into the countryside is straining local resources and exacerbating the dire situation.

Despite the government’s attempts to suppress information, reports of the atrocities are beginning to trickle out, thanks to brave local young activists, and ordinary citizens who are risking their lives to document and disseminate the truth. Social media has become an important venue for conveying information, with videos and images of the violence circulating widely, sparking further outrage and calls for action. However, the government’s efforts to control the narrative have included cutting off internet access in some areas and detaining those suspected of disclosing information to the outside world.

The outcry from the Amhara society is loud demanding an end to the violence and calling for justice for the victims. People pleading for peace in the allover Amhara region, the pleadings have been met with even harsher repression as the government seeks to crush any form of demand for peace in the region. The cycle of violence and repression is creating a deepening divide between the Oromo lead government and the Amhara people, with trust in the central authorities eroding rapidly.

International organizations lacking initiative

Human rights organizations, including the United Nations and the European Union, which previously expressed deep concern and took decisive action regarding the Tigray war, have been notably silent in the face of the larger atrocities and crimes currently being committed against the Amhara people. This silence is alarming and has not gone unnoticed by international observers, who are increasingly concerned about the deteriorating situations in Ethiopia. The reluctance of these institutions to take a strong stance or to acknowledge the severity of the crisis even publicly in the Amhara region raises serious questions about their commitment to human rights and the principles they claim to uphold.

The United Nations, the African Union, and various international NGOs have, to date, failed to call for an immediate cessation of hostilities or to demand that the Ethiopian government allow an independent investigation into the alleged atrocities. This inaction is particularly striking given the scale of the violence and the clear evidence of widespread human rights abuses. The silence of these institutions, especially in contrast to their vocal and active engagement during the Tigray conflict, suggests a troubling double standard in the international community’s response to crises in Ethiopia.

Not only the UN and the African Union that have been conspicuously silent; the United States and the European Union, both of which played leading roles in addressing the Tigray conflict, have shown a lack of urgency and concern for the unfolding disaster in the Amhara region. This apparent indifference is reminiscent of the international community’s failure to act during the 1994 Rwandan genocide, a tragic historical parallel that many fears could be repeating itself in Ethiopia.

The lack of a coordinated international response is deeply concerning, especially as the situation in the Amhara region continues to deteriorate. The Ethiopian government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has shown no signs of easing its brutal crackdown on the region. Abiy, who is an ethnic Oromo and has increasingly embraced a nationalist agenda, appears to view the Amhara people as adversaries rather than citizens to be protected. This perception has only exacerbated the violence, as the government continues to deploy military forces to suppress what it sees as a rebellion, but which is a population’s desperate struggle for survival.

The Ethiopian government’s actions in the Amhara region have raised the specter of a much larger conflict. There are growing fears that the violence could spiral into a full-scale civil war, drawing in other regions and ethnic groups, and potentially destabilizing the entire country. Ethiopia, with its complex ethnic landscape and history of inter-ethnic tensions, is already on a precarious path. A civil war could have catastrophic consequences not just for Ethiopia, but for the entire Horn of Africa.

The international community’s inaction is particularly perplexing given the stakes involved. Ethiopia is one of the largest and most influential countries in Africa, and instability there could have far-reaching implications for regional security, migration, and economic stability. Yet, despite the clear signs of impending disaster, the world’s most powerful nations and institutions seem paralyzed, unwilling to take the necessary steps to prevent a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe.

The reasons for this inaction are complex and multifaceted. Some analysts suggest that geopolitical interests may be at play, with key international actors reluctant to antagonize the Ethiopian government, which has been a strategic partner in the region, particularly in the fight against terrorism and in maintaining regional stability. Others point to the complexities of Ethiopia’s internal politics and the challenges of navigating the country’s ethnic dynamics, which may be deterring more robust international intervention.

However, these considerations do not excuse the failure to act in the face of clear evidence of atrocities. The principles of human rights and the protection of civilians should transcend political and strategic interests. The international community has a moral obligation to intervene when governments perpetrate or allow gross human rights abuses, regardless of the geopolitical context.

The lack of response from the international community is also contributing to a growing sense of abandonment and betrayal among the Amhara people. Many feel that their suffering is being ignored or dismissed, further fueling resentment and anger. This sense of isolation is dangerous, as it could push more people towards radicalization or into the arms of militant groups, exacerbating the conflict and making it even more difficult to resolve.

The parallels to the Rwandan genocide are stark and should serve as a warning to the international community. In 1994, the world watched as nearly a million people were slaughtered in Rwanda, and yet, despite the clear signs of impending genocide, the international community failed to act. The same mistakes cannot be repeated in Ethiopia. The warnings are clear, and the consequences of inaction are potentially devastating.

It is imperative that the world community reconsider how it is handling the Ethiopian situation. It needs to acknowledge how dire the situations are in the Amhara region and act quickly to stop more crimes. This should involve calling for an independent investigation into the atrocities, imposing targeted sanctions on individuals accountable for violating human rights, and applying diplomatic pressure to the Ethiopian government to permit such an investigation.

Furthermore, the international community needs to provide immediate humanitarian assistance to those affected by the conflict. The displacement of large numbers of people, the destruction of homes and infrastructure, and the disruption of basic services have created a dire humanitarian crisis that requires urgent attention. Aid agencies must be granted unimpeded access to the affected areas, and resources must be mobilized to meet the urgent needs of the population.

The Need for Action and the Responsibilities of International Institutions

It is imperative that the international community urgently reassess its approach to the escalating crisis in Ethiopia. The severity of the situation in the Amhara region requires demands immediate and decisive action to prevent further atrocities and to address the underlying causes of the conflict. Central to this reassessment must be a strong and unequivocal condemnation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, which has maintained its grip on power through force and violence. Since coming to power six years ago, Abiy Ahmed and his Oromo-led administration have consistently diverted the nation’s resources towards internal conflicts, not to defend against foreign invaders but to wage war against their own people—those they purport to govern. This alarming reality must be recognized and addressed by the global powers with a stake in regional and international stability.

The past six years of Abiy Ahmed’s rule have been marked by a series of devastating conflicts that have torn the fabric of Ethiopian society. What began as a period of hope and promise, with Abiy’s rise to power seen by many as a potential turning point for Ethiopia, has instead devolved into a nightmare of violence and repression. The government’s aggressive campaigns against various ethnic groups, particularly the Amhara, have exposed a disturbing pattern of state-sanctioned brutality. Instead of fostering unity and peace, Abiy’s administration has deepened ethnic divisions and fueled a cycle of violence that threatens to spiral out of control.

This prolonged state of conflict has had catastrophic consequences for the Ethiopian people. The war has ravaged the entire region, claimed countless lives and destroyed communities. The Amhara region has suffered the brunt of this violence, with reports of widespread atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, mass displacements, and the destruction of vital infrastructure. The government’s military campaigns in these areas have not been about preserving national security but about quashing dissent and consolidating power, often at the expense of innocent civilians.

Given the scale of the atrocities being committed, it is imperative that the international community not only condemns these actions but also takes concrete steps to hold those responsible accountable. This begins with a thorough and independent investigation into the crimes perpetrated by Abiy Ahmed’s government. Impartial international bodies should lead such an investigation with the authority to examine the full extent of the abuses and to ensure that those responsible, including high-ranking officials within Abiy’s administration, face justice.

Furthermore, the international community must urgently assist those affected by the ongoing conflict. The scale of the displacement, the destruction of homes and infrastructure, and the disruption of essential services have created a dire humanitarian crisis that cannot be ignored. The suffering of the Amhara people and other affected communities is immense, and immediate action is needed to alleviate their plight. Humanitarian aid must be delivered swiftly, with aid agencies granted unimpeded access to the hardest-hit areas. The resources necessary to meet the urgent needs of the population—food, water, medical supplies, and shelter—must be mobilized without delay.

In addition to addressing the immediate humanitarian crisis, a concerted effort must be made to tackle the root causes of the conflict. The solution is increasingly clear: the current government, which has lost the trust of large segments of the population, must step down. Abiy Ahmed’s administration has demonstrated that it is unwilling or unable to govern in a way that ensures peace and stability for all Ethiopians. Therefore, the international community should support efforts to facilitate a political transition that reflects the will of the Ethiopian people.

This transition should involve establishing a broad-based, inclusive interim government to guide the country through this turbulent period. Such a government would be mandated to oversee a national reconciliation process, including transitional justice measures to address past crimes. Crucially, this process should ensure that those responsible for the atrocities, including members of Abiy Ahmed’s administration, are held accountable. This could involve trials in the International Criminal Court (ICC), where the architects of the violence would face justice for their crimes.

Establishing a transitional government also allows one to address the structural issues that have fueled conflict in Ethiopia. It includes addressing ethnic grievances, ensuring fair political representation, and creating a framework for sustainable peace. The international community, particularly regional organizations like the African Union and key global players such as the United States and the European Union, must actively support this transition, providing diplomatic backing and technical assistance to help rebuild Ethiopia’s political institutions.

The world cannot afford to remain silent in the face of the atrocities being committed in the Amhara region. The time for action is now. If the international community fails to respond, it risks the further destabilization of Ethiopia and its credibility as a defender of human rights and a promoter of global peace and security. The lessons of Rwanda in 1994, where the international community’s inaction contributed to one of the most horrific genocides of the 20th century, must not be forgotten. The parallels are stark, and the consequences of repeating those mistakes are too grave to contemplate.

Millions of Ethiopian lives are hanging in the balance. The international community must act to prevent more suffering, hold those responsible for violence accountable, and assist the Ethiopian people in their quest for peace and justice. The window for action is rapidly closing. The world must not ignore the unfolding tragedy in Ethiopia. Still, it must instead rise to the challenge of stopping the violence and helping to build a future where all Ethiopians can live in peace and security.