By Surafel Getahun
Ethiopia, a country with a long history of imperial rule and authoritarian governance, saw a glimpse of democratic hope when Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018. His ascent was met with optimism from both Ethiopian citizens and the international community, as he promised reforms that would lead Ethiopia into a new era of democracy, freedom, and inclusivity. His early moves—including releasing political prisoners, opening up the political space, and making peace with Eritrea—seemed to confirm this commitment to democratic ideals. However, as the years unfolded, the country witnessed a stark shift from democratic transition to authoritarian consolidation. Political repression, ethnic conflicts, media censorship, and the suppression of opposition groups have become defining characteristics of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership.
This essay explores the broken democratic promises under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, detailing how political repression, ethnic conflicts, human rights violations, and the erosion of democratic institutions undermined Ethiopia’s path to democracy.
Upon assuming office, Abiy Ahmed made significant strides in political reforms, aiming to reverse the oppressive governance of previous administrations. He released thousands of political prisoners, lifted bans on previously outlawed political groups, and allowed opposition members to return from exile. Additionally, his administration eased restrictions on press freedom, encouraging open political discourse for the first time in decades. These changes ignited hope that Ethiopia was finally on the path to a more democratic and open society.
Perhaps one of Abiy Ahmed’s most celebrated achievements was the peace agreement signed with Eritrea in 2018. The agreement ended a two-decade-long stalemate between the two countries, leading to improved diplomatic relations and economic cooperation. This breakthrough was so significant that Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, further reinforcing his image as a leader dedicated to reform.However, despite these initial steps, Ethiopia’s political trajectory soon took an unexpected turn. The commitment to democratic values and political inclusivity began to fade as Abiy tightened his grip on power, silencing critics and crushing opposition forces.
Despite his promises of democracy, Abiy Ahmed has increasingly embraced authoritarian methods to maintain political control. His government has cracked down on opposition groups, arresting activists, journalists, and critics under the pretext of maintaining stability and national security. Key opposition figures, including members of the Oromo Federalist Congress, Balderas for True Democracy, and other political parties, have been imprisoned on questionable charges.
In 2020, the Hate Speech and Disinformation Prevention Proclamation was introduced. Although presented as a measure to curb ethnic violence and misinformation, it has been widely used to silence dissent. Journalists have been arrested for criticizing the government, and independent media outlets have faced severe censorship, limiting their ability to report on pressing national issues. Internet shutdowns have become a common tool for controlling narratives, particularly during moments of civil unrest and political crisis.
Moreover, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has been accused of failing to conduct free and fair elections. In the highly contested 2021 general elections, major opposition parties were either barred from participating or faced severe intimidation, leading to an overwhelming victory for Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party. Critics argue that the election lacked credibility, further cementing Abiy’s authoritarian rule.
One of the most alarming aspects of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership has been the escalation of ethnic violence across Ethiopia. The country’s diverse ethnic composition has long been a source of political complexity, but under Abiy, ethnic conflicts have intensified dramatically. His administration has struggled—or failed—to address these tensions, leading to widespread violence, displacement, and loss of life.
The conflict in Tigray, which erupted in November 2020, has been one of the most devastating crises in Ethiopia’s modern history. The war between the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), Eritrean troops, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has resulted in thousands of deaths and severe humanitarian suffering.
Similarly, conflicts in the Oromia, Amhara, and Afar regions have led to ethnic massacres, mass displacements, and economic devastation. The government’s response has often been heavy-handed, relying on military intervention rather than political reconciliation. The targeting of civilian populations has led to accusation.
Under Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s democratic institutions have been weakened or entirely dismantled. The judiciary, once expected to be an independent body capable of checking executive power, has largely become an extension of the ruling party. Judges face pressure to rule in favor of government interests, limiting their ability to uphold justice and fairness.
Parliament, despite being an essential institution for democratic governance, has become a rubber stamp for Abiy’s policies. The Prosperity Party dominates the legislature, making opposition voices virtually irrelevant. Laws are passed with little debate, and government policies are enforced without genuine public participation.
Additionally, the federal arrangement that previously allowed regional states some degree of autonomy has been challenged under Abiy’s rule. His push for a centralized system, at the expense of ethnic federalism, has further exacerbated tensions among different ethnic groups. This has led to resistance from regional political actors who view his approach as an attempt to dismantle.
Ethiopia’s declining democratic landscape has drawn concern from the international community. Western nations that once praised Abiy’s leadership, particularly the United States and the European Union, have shifted their stance, imposing sanctions on Ethiopian officials and reducing financial aid due to human rights abuses. The UN has called for independent investigations into war crimes committed during the Tigray conflict.
However, despite international pressure, Abiy Ahmed has continued to assert his authority, often dismissing criticism as foreign interference. His government has accused international organizations and Western media of bias, further isolating Ethiopia from global diplomatic relations.
The hope that accompanied Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power has largely been shattered. While his early actions suggested a commitment to democracy, his leadership has ultimately taken an authoritarian turn. Political repression, ethnic conflicts, media censorship, and the erosion of democratic institutions have replaced the initial optimism with fear and uncertainty.
Ethiopia’s future remains uncertain. The country faces deepening divisions, ongoing conflicts, and widespread human rights violations. If true democratic reform is to be realized, there must be accountability, reconciliation, and an inclusive political system that genuinely represents the interests of all Ethiopians.
Until then, the promise of democracy remains unfulfilled.