Yonas Biru, PhD
Major breakthroughs in hard science like cosmology, physics, chemistry, and anatomy require human intelligence to seize upon new ideas and transform them into a new paradigm. Alexander Pope had it right when he wrote “Nature and Nature’s laws lay hid by night. God said, ‘Let Newton be!’ and all was light.”
Social and political transformations are no different. They require critical thinkers and opinion leaders who seize upon social developments and harness them into revolutionary movements. It is hard to imagine America without Thomas Jeferson, who etched the American creed: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.”
God must have said “Let Jeferson be” to ignite the spirit and tenets of the US Constitution in James Madison and spark the eureka moments of illumination in George Washington to translate the Jeffersonian creed into a solemn and binding socio-political covenant. Hundreds of years after Jefferson uttered the American creed, people of all hues, faiths, and shades have been landing on American shores by boat, by air, in trucks, and on foot, seeking the riches of freedom and the security of justice.
Be it in hard science or social science, a very small segment of society among the political or scientific elite classes are the eigne and the energy that transform the world.
The purpose of this article is to examine the failure of the Amhara political elite class of recent memory to rise and seize the moment of heightened public demand for change in the Amhara political landscape. It behooves us to investigate why Amhara political engagements produce heat not light. This is the challenge I attempt to tackle. Thus, shall I. May help me God!
Amhara as a Target of Systemic Disenfranchisement
The Ethiopian Constitution was designed jointly by the Tigrayan and Oromo Liberation Fronts (TPLF and OLF) to supposedly free non-Amhara Ethiopians from an alleged exploitation, suppression and colonization under the yolk of Amhara domination. Consequently, since the adoption of the Constitution, the people of Amhara have been targeted and systematically disenfranchised in every facet of their lives – economically, politically and socially.
Let us first look at the population issue to drive the point home. In the 1984 population census, Oromo accounted for 29.1% of Ethiopia’s population followed by Amhara at 28.3%. The difference in population was 332,414 in favor of Oromo.
In the 1994 census, the first under TPLF and OLF coalition government, the Oromo population grew to 35% of the total population. The corresponding figure for Amhara declined to 25.9%. The population difference between the two skyrocketed from 332,414 (in 1984) to 4,898,228 (in 1994) in favor of Oromo.
In the 2007 census that was conducted under TPLF for the second time, the Oromo population increased further to 36.7% of the population. Amhara went down again to 23.3%. In 2007, the population difference shot up to 9,944,415. In 2023, extrapolated population estimates ballooned the difference between Amhara and Oromo population to 13,626,137. As a result, with respect to Oromo, Amhara got disenfranchised in the parliamentary seat allocations. It also got the short side of the stick in the share of the federal government’s budgetary support to regional governments that is determined primarily based on population.
The systemic under-allocation of federal budget appropriations together with the policy of developmental state that managed the nation’s development systematically undermined the economic development of the Amhara tribal land. During the TPLF’s era, one of its signature economic accomplishments was infrastructure, particularly roads. According to a World Bank report: “Remote and economically lagging regions, and Amhara Region, saw lesser increases in road density… the increase in road density was concentrated in certain regions, notably Addis Ababa, as well as Tigray in the north of the country and in Oromia in the center.”
Another growth indicator the World Bank report used is “differences in the pattern of nightlights over a given time.” The report highlighted this as critical because such differences “are correlated with changes in GDP.” The top three cities outside of Addis Ababa who registered relatively high nightlights listed in the order of high to low are Mekele (Tigray), Adama (Oromo), and Awasa (Southern People).
Access to health is another area of systemic social injustice. A 2005 world Bank report shows delivery care by a medically trained person is the highest in Addis Ababa (69 percent) and the lowest in the Amhara region where it is “only three percent.”
The agriculture sector of the Amhara tribal land is another sector adversely affected for two reasons. First, during the demarcation of the new regions, Amhara is the only tribe that lost land in corners of its geographic proper. In the North, Tigray annexed two fertile lands. In the West, a large swath of land was given to Benishangul. To the South, the Oromo claimed extended areas of farming lands. To the East, Afar gained a large part of Amhara. Amhara is the only region that was forced to give land to other tribal homelands without gaining any from them.
More recently, over one million peaceful people of Amhara heritage were forcefully displaced both by the Oromo regional government and non-governmental Oromo forces. Amhara is also the only region that became a target of war by the federal government to force it to disband and disarm its regional military and militia forces. Tigray that boasts of having over 200,000 well-armed regional forces and militia was not required to disband or disarm. The same is the case with Oromo regional military and militia forces.
The failure of Amhara Political Elite
The people of Amhara are stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea with an unpleasant choice between a Prime Minister who is a narcissistic psychopath and the Amhara political elite that lacks a strategic vision and unifying political consensus. The fate of the people of Amhara is determined by accident and force rather than by strategic reflection and choice.
The question that overrides all else is: Why has the Amhara failed to produce its own versions of Madison, Jeferson and Washington out of ሽጉጤ፣ ጎንጤ፣ and ተምትሜ? Several factors explain the unfortunate phenomenon, including: (1) a hermitized culture that is unfit for a 21st century politics that recoils against an open dialogue and consensus building, (2) a political identity crisis, and (3) the resultant emergence of extremist forces led by idiotic clowns.
A Hermitized Culture that is Unfit for a 21st Century Politics
Ethiopia’s political crisis emerges from the Northern part of the nation in Amhara and Tigray. The politics in the South is a politics of grievance and reaction than a proactive political contention. Ethiopian politics cannot be transformed before the hermitized culture in Amhara and Tigray are addressed. I have written a lot on this and will not repeat it here. Those interested can google and read (1) “Ethiopia’s Political Problems Reside in Its Mythological National Identity,” and (2) “Quantum Physics and the Quest for the Elusive National Dialogue in Ethiopia.”
The Amhara Identity Crisis
The Amhara can learn a lot from the Oromo identity crisis. The Godfather of Oromummaa, Asafa Jalata was the first Oromo intellectual who tried to overcome the lack of a unifying Oromo political identity to build a united Oromo. He was aware that Oromos in Shewa have a lot more in common with Amharas in Shewa than with the Oromos of Arsi. The good professor spent a large part of his political life to elevate Oromummaa to a faux political culture.
He knew language alone could not unify Oromos to build an Oromo political power base. He believed Oromo needed a unifying Oromo culture that ties all Oromos together. That was why he tried to resurrect Gadaa from the tomb and rinse it as a cornerstone for a united Oromo and reinvented Irrecha from a localized idol religious tradition to a universal Oromo culture. That is also why he condemned Islam and Christianity as enemies of Oromo and tried to resurrect Waaqeffanna as Oromo’s spiritual energy.
His efforts proved to be delusional that gave birth to a still born political enterprise. Oromummaa failed in a spectacular fashion. As Jawar Mohamed reluctantly admitted, tribal politics may be effective in mobilizing dissent but is unsuitable in fostering a transformative political system, be it democratic or otherwise. Put in the vernacular, Tribalism is primitive and degenerative.
Amhara as a political entity is a constitutionally sanctioned tribal identity. The uncontestable fact is that the Amhara of Sewa has far more in common with the Oromo of Shewa than with the Amhara of Gojam. The red thread that connects the Amharas of Wello and Gojam is as thin as that of the Amharas of Wello and their bordering tribal homelands of Tigray and Afar.
Furthermore, historically, the Amharas of Wello, Shewa, Gojam and Gonder have been political adversaries. In fact, they have wedged at least as many wars against each other as they have with their non-Amhara neighboring tribes.
The common political narrative “ሲገሉህ አማራ ብለው እንጂ ጎንደሬ፣ ጎጃሜ፣ ወለየ፣ ወይም ሸዌ ብለው አደለም። ስለዚህ አማራ ሆይ አንድ ሁን” is a political rhetoric that carries zero strategic currency. Amhara must learn from Oromummaa’s failed endeavor that tried to create an Oromo identity using grievance politics as a unifying principle.
This is evident not only in the stillborn Oromummaa movement but also in the Fano movement that is devoid of a unifying agenda outside of its grievance enterprise. The political narrative “ሲገሉህ አማራ ብለው እንጂ ጎንደሬ፣ ጎጃሜ፣ ወለየ፣ ወይም ሸዌ ብለው አደለም። ስለዚህ አማራ ሆይ አንድ ሁን” was effective to generate dissent and mobilize organized protest.
What is also evident it that Fano has failed to elevate itself from a protest movement to a transformative political force. The euphoric and delusional message to the resident of Addis “ጠብቁን እየመጣን ነው” was similar in nature and delusional affinity to that of the Prime Minister’s bravado and promise of bringing Fano to its knees in two weeks.
The fight between the federal government and Fano is increasingly appearing a fight between two groups of blind men frantically throwing punches and spending energy without discernable strategy.
The Emergence of Extremist Clowns as Monopolistic Political Forces
I am not sure who said, “America is an idea — an idea stronger than any army, and more powerful than any dictator or tyrant.” Whoever said it, it pays homage to the historical fact that America was built on the strength of the ideals of its political elites led by the likes of Thomas Jeferson, James Madison and George Washington. Its creeds, tenets and covenants were etched in the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers and the Constitution. Though written by few, these documents were the result of open political dialogue and heated debates that led to consensus.
The main problem with the Amhara movement resides in its failure to develop a consensus political agenda, along with a robust strategic roadmap and a flexible and adoptive end goal. The agenda-setting and roadmap-building efforts are the duties of the political elite. Unfortunately, the hermitized Amhara political culture is incompatible with open dialogue and consensus building.
Simply put, the immovable barriers of the hermitized Amhara culture that recoils against an open dialogue and consensus building has given birth to an unstoppable extremist clowns. What is worse than a fight between groups of blind men is a fight between idiotic clowns who harbor the politics of dogmatic extremism. Meet Eskinder Nega, Zemene Kassie, Habtamu Ayalew, Habtamu Tegegn, Shelka ድንቄም እቴ and Engineer አልሞትኩም ብየ አልዋሽም.
Such clowns are more damaging to the Fano enterprise than the delusional PM who dreams about destroying Fano in two weeks and challenging the US and EU global market share in the production and supply of commercial and military airplanes by 2030, a feat that Chia and Russia have not succeeded in.
I have written a lot about the extremist clowns and their detrimental consequences. Those who are interested in the topic can read “Fano’s Current Realities: Challenges, Prospects & Next Steps,” or “Fano’s Military Successes and Political Tragedies” or “The Asshole Generation.” All are a google search away.
አስቤ በድፍረት ውይም ሳላስብ በንዝህላልነት ካጠፋሁ ይቅር
አንበሶቹ የኔ ትውልድ ጀግኖች በርቱልን! pic.twitter.com/2kK2HnEfEr
— ሳተናው (@WOTATUAMARA) December 6, 2024
