Nama Nekemto
Recent observations on the evolving political landscape in Oromia, particularly concerning the potential for collaboration with Oromo political actors, lead me to some intriguing, albeit tentative, conclusions. The definitive answers remain elusive.
Jawar Mohammed’s influence within the Oromo elites and his ongoing efforts to re-energize his political movement are undeniable. His other wing group, operating within the Prosperity Party, appears to possess a resilient, though arguably eroding, base of support. While Abiy Ahmed’s administration has granted significant power and resources to Oromo elites, creating an Oromo oligarchy, it’s becoming clear that not all within this group are content with the current balance of power. Statements by Abiy Ahmed, expressing frustration with a perceived lack of support from his own party leadership, strongly suggest internal dissent within the ruling party.
This simmering discontent, coupled with escalating instability across the nation, fuels speculation regarding a potential shift in Oromo political strategies. There’s growing belief that a behind-the-scenes discussion is underway, considering the possibility of replacing Abiy Ahmed and charting a different political course. This is further complicated by the actions and statements of various Oromo diaspora groups, including OFC, OLF factions and other figures outside the government. These actors may pursue a path of dialogue, reconciliation, and equal co-existence, a path Abiy Ahmed seems reluctant to follow.
The role of Jawar Mohammed is particularly noteworthy. His recent commentary, often bordering on support for Fano militias, is increasingly perceived as a calculated strategy, carefully balancing his public pronouncements to avoid being seen as directly supporting and collaborating with Fano. While he appears to subtly advocate for a shift of power from Aniy Ahmed to Oromo groups and Fano, he’s clearly proceeding cautiously, waiting for a more opportune moment for overt action.
The strong reaction of Abiy Ahmed and figures like Daniel Kibret to Jawar Mohammed’s statements underlines the growing unease within the ruling circles. Shimelis Abdisa’s speech in Nekemte and recently at Caffee Oromiyaa 9th conference, a thinly veiled attack on Jawar Mohammed and his allies (though he didn’t not name them explicitly), highlights the escalating tensions.
Despite the apparent control exercised by Abiy Ahmed’s forces, signs of Oromo awakening are evident. The suppression of dissent through manipulation and the instigation of internal conflict are unsustainable. The threshold for open, widespread resistance is undoubtedly lowering.
Under favorable conditions, a significant but challenging undertaking, an anti-Abiy Ahmed coalition (resembling, in some ways, the anti-TPLF alliances of the past) involving Oromo and Amhara forces could emerge. However, if such a coalition were to form, it would likely differ from the backroom deals within the EPRDF and power struggles seen in previous alliances.
Several factors mitigate the likelihood of this coalition being purely a power grab. Firstly, the rise of the organized and heavily armed Fano militia significantly alters the political landscape. Secondly, the catastrophic potential for conflict between two powerful ethnic groups should they directly clash would be a significant deterrent for both groups. This risk of widespread human and economic devastation is likely to act as a powerful restraint against reckless actions.
While the above factors significantly affect the likelihood of a calculated power grab, the actions of the international community will undoubtedly play a critical, third-party role. Western nations, deeply concerned by the ongoing conflict and political instability, are reportedly engaged in separate dialogues with key political players from various ethnic groups, evaluating the military and political power dynamics. While their future actions are unpredictable, a concerted effort to exert pressure on all parties to find a solution is anticipated. This pressure will likely increase if the situation spirals further out of control.
In conclusion, the need for immediate and deep reflection on a concerted roadmap that addresses the needs and interests of all stakeholders is paramount. This necessitates bringing all representative segments of society together, to formulate a future where the security and prosperity of all Ethiopians can be secured.