By: Abel Eshetu Gebremedhin ( PhD Candidate, AAU)
In Ethiopia, education has long been hailed as the primary vehicle for social mobility, economic advancement, and national development. Parents invest their hopes, resources, and often meager incomes in the belief that a university degree will secure their children’s future. The government, too, has expanded higher education infrastructure exponentially in the last two decades, opening new public universities across all regions. Yet, a disturbing reality contradicts this long-held belief: Ethiopian youth, even those with university degrees, are increasingly trapped in cycles of joblessness, underemployment, or compelled migration. This article critically examines the current mismatch between higher education and labor market outcomes in Ethiopia, arguing that the rate of return on education for Ethiopian youth has become largely pseudo — symbolic rather than material — in today’s economic and political context.
The Broken Promise of Higher Education
The economic rationale for investing in education lies in the assumption of a positive private and social rate of return. That is, individuals and societies expect to earn more — economically and socially — by attaining higher levels of education. However, in Ethiopia, thousands of young graduates are either unemployed or engaged in jobs that are completely mismatched to their field of study and skill level.
According to recent data from the Ministry of Labor and Skills, youth unemployment remains above 25% nationally, with the figure estimated to be even higher among recent college graduates. Many are unable to find any formal employment within 1–3 years of graduation. Those who are employed often find themselves working as informal vendors, ride-hailing drivers, or in low-wage service sector jobs. For these graduates, the promise of education as a pathway to dignity and economic independence is far from realized.
In effect, the so-called “rate of return” on their education is not only delayed but significantly diminished — hence, pseudo.
Migration: The “Escape Plan” of the Educated
The frustrations with local job markets have pushed thousands of Ethiopian youths, including educated professionals, to seek employment abroad — particularly in the Gulf States. While migration is not new to Ethiopian society, the recent surge in the number of degree-holding migrants reflects a deeper crisis: education is no longer perceived as a tool for local integration but rather as a passport to escape.
The irony is striking. Graduates in accounting, engineering, nursing, or IT are increasingly found working as housemaids, janitors, drivers, and security guards in the Arab world. This phenomenon not only signals a severe brain drain but also raises ethical and existential questions: What is the real value of a university degree in Ethiopia today? Has education become a detour rather than a destination?
The shift in aspirations — from national contribution to personal escape — reflects the loss of faith in local opportunity structures. In this sense, the rate of return on education is no longer national but external, and even then, it is marred by exploitative labor conditions and the trauma of forced migration.
Political Instability and Institutional Erosion
Compounding the employment crisis is the persistent political instability in the country. The conflict in Tigray, armed confrontations in Amhara and Oromia regions, and the general climate of insecurity have led to the prolonged closure of schools, including universities, in several regions. In the Amhara and Oromia regions — which together constitute over half the country’s population — students have missed academic years due to active fighting, displacement, or institutional collapse.
Moreover, the civil service — once the largest employer of graduates — has significantly shrunk or frozen hiring due to budget cuts, institutional paralysis, and public distrust. Private sector growth has been stifled by war, inflation, and capital flight. For the youth, especially those from conflict-affected areas, the future appears not only uncertain but entirely unanchored.
In such a context, education ceases to function as a tool for opportunity and becomes a liability — a wasted investment in a broken system.
The Wages of Misemployment
For those who do manage to find work, the picture is not much brighter. Wages remain abysmally low. A fresh graduate in teaching or public health may earn as little as 3,000–4,000 birr (roughly $50–70) per month — hardly enough to sustain independent living, let alone support a family. Furthermore, many are placed in jobs unrelated to their qualifications, contributing to professional stagnation and frustration.
This mismatch is not merely a result of economic downturns but also of systemic failures in the education-to-employment pipeline. Ethiopian universities are producing graduates without aligning curricula to the demands of the labor market. Career guidance is nearly absent. Internships and skill-building programs are rare or poorly managed. As a result, many students graduate with degrees that hold little relevance or value in the current economy.
Toward a Realistic Reimagining of Education
The Ethiopian education system — and the policies that govern it — must urgently re-evaluate the very purpose and structure of higher education. Continuing to expand university seats without investing in employability, job creation, or curricular reform is both unethical and unsustainable. Some recommendations include:
- Labor Market-Oriented Curricula: Universities should collaborate with industries to develop skills-based programs that match market needs.
- TVET Expansion: Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) should be revalorized, properly funded, and integrated with entrepreneurship and innovation hubs.
- Job Creation Policies: National development policies must prioritize youth employment, especially in high-potential sectors such as agriculture, ICT, construction, and renewable energy.
- Political Stability: Without peace and stable governance, no economic or educational reform can sustain its impact. Education cannot thrive amidst gunfire.
The Ethiopian youth are not rejecting education; rather, they are lamenting what it has failed to deliver. In a country where employment is scarce, regions are destabilized, and migration is the most viable dream, the rate of return on education has become tragically pseudo. The nation must act with urgency and integrity to restore trust in the education system and make it a real instrument for transformation — not a ceremonial rite of passage to frustration.
If not, the next generation may continue to wear graduation gowns on the runway to exile.