Aklog Birara (Dr)
When I think of the current dire situation in my ancestral home country, Ethiopia, I am mindful of the guidance offered by none other than Nelson Mandela. He focused most prominently on pillars like our common humanity, the rule of law, human rights, unfettered rights of individual persons, justice, redressing past injustices through a robust process of dialogue, peace, and national reconciliation. A core part of Mandela’s vision for Post-Apartheid South Africa that I embrace wholeheartedly is this. “A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.”
What does Mandela mean? He talks about the alleviation of poverty, a core principle that obligates any government to do its part all the time and for all citizens. He talks about equitable distribution of income, wealth, and assets like land. You cannot discriminate against anyone on the one hand; and declare you stand for equitable distribution of incomes and access to opportunities on the other. You cannot cater only to the few with power and wealth and leave the rest.
Mandela, whom I met in person, talks about fairness and social equity. He talks about balanced treatment of every citizen under the law. He talks about genuine democracy exercised through fair, free and competitive elections. There is no such thing as engineered democracy for the few. There cannot be democracy with a war-like mentality either.
It is time for Ethiopians to ask “Do Ethiopia’s current rulers have a vision for post-conflict-ridden Ethiopia? If yes, what is it? Can they afford to continue committing war crimes, crimes against humanly and crimes of genocide? Can they afford to discuss development while stealing from the public purse and investing in glitz projects and while millions go hungry each day? In any case, who would challenge this tragic situation?”
Primarily, if the country is to continue as one country, Ethiopia must end its current war of genocide and destruction policy within and war posturing without. The priority is the one within. Stop killing innocent civilians under any pretext. Stop expending billions of dollars of public funds to pay for lethal weapons like drones; and channel these funds to modernize the agricultural sector.
Secondly, Ethiopians deserve peace. I do not remember a time when Ethiopia enjoyed peace, human security, and stability especially since it adopted the ethnic federal system. The degree of pain and suffering differs from one regime to another. But it is all the same. This vicious cycle must end.
Thirdly, Ethiopians must not starve. I do not remember a time when most Ethiopians had enough food to eat. Drought induced famine looms large in the Afar, Amhara and Tigray regions of Ethiopia more than forty years after Live aid, 1985. How come Ethiopia is still food insecure? How come there is famine in the 21st century? How come donor agencies like the World Bank and the IMF remain silent? These institutions have a moral obligation to recognize that most Ethiopians are suffering under the current PP growth model.
Just think of this statistical fact. If Ethiopia were unable to feed between thirty-five million and forty-one million people in the 1980s, how would it feed more than 135 million people today? Don’t you think it will be impossible for Ethiopia to feed a population projected by the UN to reach 225 million by 2050?
Just think of the millions of Ethiopians lost and the tens of billions of dollars in investment destroyed over the past seven years alone. This troubling reality suggests a need for dramatic policy change in the structure of the economy and the framing of the pillars of Ethiopia’s growth and development. It must be people anchored. It cannot cater only to the few and leave the rest in dire need. Hyperinflation estimated at 41 percent per year is intolerable.
Fourthly, for sure, “the highest citizens” in Ethiopia will have more than enough to eat. This same cohort will have the financial means to travel to Dubai or Bangkok or other developed places in the event of a medical emergency? The same cohort will have the financial means to send their children for education overseas. What about the rest? In the Amhara region alone, seven million youth are unable to attend school. What happens to them in the years ahead?
Fifthly, Ethiopia’s trouble is ideological, systemic, institutional, and structural. The TPLF had declared in its manifesto that “Amhara are mortal enemies of Tigrayans” and the rest of non-Amhara. Consider the dire situation in Tigray and demand explanation. War is not the answer.
There is no contest Ethiopia’s current ethnic federal system breeds a permanent cycle of violence and ethnic conflict, abductions, armed robbery, corruption, human and food insecurity and massive diversion of budgetary resources by the Ethiopian state and government. Diversion of resources is especially cruel and punishing. It perpetuates unemployment and hopelessness. This vicious cycle affects most Ethiopians except the privileged few. These few do not care if the regime slaughters millions like chickens; if millions starve and die and if tens of thousands of youths flee to the Middle East in search of opportunities.
The dire situation Ethiopians face demands a dramatic shift in our individual and collective thinking. Ethiopians must decide to solve their horrendous problems together. This reminds me of an eternal and wise African saying “If you want to walk fast, go alone. If you want to walk far, go together.” If your sole purpose in life is to make money or win political contests or gain favors from those who govern with an iron-fist, then, you operate alone.
On the other hand, if you wish to overhaul the governance system that oppresses and kills you, that caters to the “highest citizens” and commits violence against most Ethiopians, then you must stand up and fight together. It is only then that you can advance the common goal of stopping recurring violence against civilians. It is only then you can establish the social basis for eradicating poverty in Ethiopia. It is only then that you can strengthen the societal goal of sustainable, equitable development and shared prosperity.
Abiy Ahmed’s newly minted Prosperity Party is a continuation of the TPLF/OLF engineered and imposed EPRDF. It is incapable of tackling Ethiopia’s multifaceted problems. PP’s primary goal is not the alleviation of poverty. Nor the cessation of ethnic violence, war, and destruction. It is a callous and cruel system,
Ethiopians who care about Ethiopia’s future must recognize the notion that the PP is ethnic elite based. It serves the interests of “the highest citizens” including foreign powers like the UAE. When you subordinate Ethiopia’s national and sovereign interests to foreign powers like the UAE, you undermine the interests of your own people for the sake of power and fame.
Why is the UAE the Kingmaker in Ethiopia?
The UAE has not invaded Ethiopia. Instead, it has cultivated strong relations with Ethiopia’s rulers who serve at UAE’s bidding. This is soft power that operates under the radar providing bridge loans, investing in real assets like urban land, and fertile farms. The UAE channeled $3 billion in 2018. The UAE supplies drones to Abiy’s army. Ethiopia serves as a market for the UAE. The UAE is the single most important troublemaker in the Horn of Africa, fueling war in the region and emboldening Abiy Ahmed to go to war against Eritrea. Dubai is a preferred destination for Ethiopia’s governing elite. UAE millionaires use Ethiopia for rest and recuperation.
The Seagate question
Ethiopia deserves access to the sea. Ethiopia must consider its legitimate quest of access to the sea through mutual consent, the formation of a common market, and tariff free zone, and not through war.
Why not push for a common market for the Horn of Africa? This will reduce if not eliminate recurrent tensions fueled by foreign powers like Egypt and the UAE? The people of the Horn of Africa deserve this option, and not war.
If you unmask the Abiy regime you will learn that it is not only anti-Amhara; it is anti-humanity. It is anti-Ethiopia. It is war prone to the core. You cannot build one nation while you undermine core national institutions by making them ethnic. You cannot build one nation while at the same time inflicting human pain and suffering. You cannot build one nation while killing thousands.
You have an obligation to ask Ethiopia’s rulers “How do you justify your legitimacy to govern while you have not assumed responsibility let alone accountability for the massacre of a million innocent civilians in 2020-2022 followed by deaths of tens of thousands since Abiy declared a state of emergency against the Amhara region two years ago?”
It is hard to deny why the tragedy continues uncontested by the international community. The Oromumma doctrine that Abiy’s PP pursues at all costs, is, anti-non-Oromo, anti-Ethiopia and hence destructive. It is antithetical to our common humanity as Africans. It is Ethiopians who must stand up together and defend our common humanity.
Ethiopia has yet to learn from the African experience. I remind you that, while the rule of law and preservation of order had served to institutionalize racism under Apartheid, Mandela remained committed to repurposing the central pillars of the state for good and for a better future for all South Africans. Unlike Abiy Ahmed who reneged on his promise, Mandela pushed for law and order not to strengthen his power but to underpin the democratic functioning of the Republic of South Africa.
At the risk of repeating the doctrine Mandela espoused, central to his vision for a new South Africa was the idea that “a nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones.” He had in mind human needs. Social equity, poverty alleviation, and true democracy were all critical to his platform and mission. Most important, it is unfettered embrace of humanity and rejection of anti-humanity tendencies that today affect most Ethiopians, including Oromo.
When I say, unmask Abiy’s mindset, I mean the agenda behind the Abby tribal doctrine of Oromo hegemony. This affects most Ethiopians. What if this agenda of Oromo ethnic hegemony over the rest fails?
Option two comes to mind. Like the TPLF, Abiy’s PP may end up pursuing an independent Oromo national state. What happens to Oromo who believe in an Ethiopian state? What happens to tens of millions of Ethiopians who are of mixed nationality and faith? What happens to the citizens of Addis Ababa the majority of whom are non-Oromo?
These are potential scenarios that we must discuss together. The way out is not doing the same thing repeatedly. Ethiopians have suffered from one state capture and theft to another. Ethiopians have suffered by embracing ethnic identity as primary. How is it that, the people of Tanzania with more than seventy ethnic groups identify themselves solely as Tanzanians?
It is time to change. It is time to change our paradigm of thinking and think of the importance of our common humanity. This is no longer an Amhara or Tigray or Gurage or Anuak or Oromo or Gamo or Wolaita issue.
This is why I suggest that, together, we must overhaul the entire system that brought us to this eclipse, a stage of potential irreversible collapse of Ethiopia.
If Abiy Ahmed and his PP wish for Ethiopia to continue, they must abandon warmongering and power grab. Ideally, they can stop human suffering by giving up power. But do not bet on this option.
When Field Marshall Berhanu Jula declares in public that Tigray can “secede from Ethiopia,” he loses all credibility to lead the Ethiopian army. Behind him is Abiy Ahmed, his boss.
If Abiy’s PP supports secession of Tigray or any other part of Ethiopia directly or indirectly, he loses legitimacy to claim Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea.
As it is, Abiy has subordinated Ethiopia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and the unity of the Ethiopian people to his own doctrine of a single ethnic elite hegemony and to the service of foreign powers, especially the UAE.
When you subordinate Ethiopia’s national interests to any power including the UAE, you lose public trust and thus legitimacy to govern.
What has Abiy Ahmed left for us to deal with then? More than we can chew. Think about it and wake up!!!!
August 4, 2025