By Amsal Woreta
Introduction: A Nation in Crisis, A Lesson from the East
Ethiopia today stands on the precipice of collapse. Ethnic war, economic freefall, and political disintegration have left the country fractured and disillusioned. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, once praised as a reformer and visionary, now presides over a nation riven by internal wars, authoritarianism, and a toxic brand of ethnic politics. But Ethiopia is not the first nation to face war, fragmentation, and the ruins of ideology. Vietnam once did too—yet it chose a different path: unity over vengeance, pragmatism over propaganda, and civic nationalism over ethnic tribalism.
Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopia’s ethnic leaders must understand that Vietnam’s success came from substantial efforts, not diplomacy or slogans. It was formed through key decisions, major changes, and management. If Ethiopia is to survive and rise again, its leaders must break with ethnic federalism, abandon identity politics, and reimagine the state around shared citizenship, justice, and development.
What Abiy Ahmed Must Learn from Vietnam’s Path to Renewal
- From Civil War to National Reconciliation
Vietnam’s civil war devastated its people and divided its regions. But after 1975, the victorious government chose reconciliation over revenge, integration over exclusion, and nationhood over tribalism. Former enemies were brought into national life, and Vietnamese identity was rebuilt around shared values, not ethnic or ideological lines.
Lesson for Ethiopia: Abiy Ahmed has failed to pursue reconciliation. Ethnic federalism perpetuates historic grievances and mutual suspicion. He must champion nationally heal through truth-telling, inclusive governance, and civic unity.
- Economic Pragmatism Over Vanity Projects
Vietnam’s 1986 Đổi Moi reforms transformed a shattered, state-run economy into a productive, globally integrated, export-led powerhouse. Leaders prioritized agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure. They embraced market reforms without abandoning political stability.
Lesson for Ethiopia: Abiy’s obsession with image—resorts, palaces, artificial rivers—stands in stark contrast. Ethiopia needs land reform, rural development, job creation, and industrial strategy, not PR campaigns and debt-fueled spectacles.
- A Unified State, not a Tribal Patchwork
Despite its ethnic diversity, Vietnam built a centralized, civic-based state that promoted cultural tolerance without enshrining identity in law or territory. It did not devolve power along ethnic lines.
Lesson for Ethiopia: Abiy inherited and expanded a system where ethnicity determines borders, language, and political identity. This system must be dismantled. A truly federal, inclusive Ethiopia must be based on citizenship and equal rights—not tribal affiliation.
- Leadership Through Humility and Service
Vietnamese leaders live modestly, avoid personality cults, and prioritize long-term planning. They lead through discipline and policy, not flamboyance.
Lesson for Abiy: Ethiopia does not need a prophet—it needs a planner. Abiy must abandon the cult of ego and return to public service, institutional reform, and accountable governance.
- Learning from History Without Weaponizing It
Vietnam suffered brutal colonialism but does not anchor its politics in historical grievance. It builds relationships with former enemies and emphasizes national resilience.
Lesson for Abiy and Ethiopia’s elite: Stop using history to divide. The Amhara are not colonizers. The Oromo are not victims. Ethiopia’s history must be reclaimed as a shared struggle against external domination and internal injustice.
Part II: What Ethiopia’s Ethnic Elites Must Do to Save the Nation
While Abiy bears primary responsibility, Ethiopia’s ethnic elites—politicians, intellectuals, diaspora influencers—are complicit in sustaining ethnic federalism. If they wish to be remembered as nation-builders, not destroyers, they must make a historic break with ethnic division.
- Acknowledge the Failure of Ethnic Federalism
Ethnic federalism has led to massacres, displacement, secessionist violence, and societal collapse. Continuing to defend it is a betrayal of the people.
Action: Publicly reject the ethnic constitution and its legal foundation (Article 39). Admit its failure. Begin the ideological unlearning of tribal politics.
- Transition from Ethnic to Civic Leadership
Speak as Ethiopians first, not as gatekeepers of ethnic groups. Representing people, not bloodlines.
Action: Disband ethnic-based parties. From civic coalitions rooted in rights, democracy, and development. Encourage local leaders to represent needs, not names.
III. Reform Education and Historical Narratives
Ethnic indoctrination begins in schools. Children are taught to resent rather than relate.
Action: Replace textbooks of ethnic blame with curricula focused on Ethiopia’s collective triumphs—Adwa, resistance to fascism, and pan-African legacy.
- Build Cross-Ethnic Alliances for Constitutional Reform
No ethnic group can save Ethiopia alone. Unity is a survival strategy.
Action: Cross-regional scholars, activists, and civil society groups must jointly call for a civic federal constitution, de-ethicized administration, and national integration.
- Dismantle the Ethnic War Economy
Many elites and diaspora influencers benefit from conflict: smuggling, militias, tribal fundraising.
Action: Expose and dismantle warlord economies. Promote development champion teachers, entrepreneurs, farmers—as new heroes.
- Repeal Article 39: No Nation Built on the Right to Disintegrate
Ethiopia’s Constitution enshrines its own potential death.
Action: Launch a national movement for constitutional reform, led by cross-ethnic youth, elderly, and intellectuals. Ethiopia must be a home for all, not a fragile alliance of ethnic enclaves.
VII. Tame the Diaspora Tribal Machine
From abroad, many amplify hate, fund armed groups, and poison discourse.
Action: Use diaspora influence to promote unity, investment, civic dialogue—not ethnic extremism. Create digital platforms that heal rather than divide.
VIII. Build Shared Prosperity, Not Ethnic Territory
Ethnic elites have confused justice with domination. Real justice is dignity, development, and peace for all.
Action: Create cross-regional industrial zones, universities, and cooperatives. Forge partnerships that build interdependence—not isolation.
Conclusion: A Final Call to Conscience—and Opportunity
Vietnam shows what is possible: that a nation torn by war, divided by ideology, and devastated by poverty can rise again through unity, humility, and relentless focus on the people’s needs.
Abiy Ahmed still has a choice. So do the Oromo, Amhara, Tigrayan, Sidama, and Somali elites who have dominated political discourse for decades.
But history will not wait. The world is watching. The people are bleeding.
Will they choose the path of Vietnam—or the path of former Yugoslavia?
Ethiopia’s second founding is not a fantasy. It is a necessity.
But it will only begin the day its leaders—ethnic and national—choose vision over vanity, unity over power, and citizenship over tribe.
His visit means nothing if it is not followed by real reform. In fact, it insults the very values that made Vietnam succeed: unity, humility, and national discipline.
Until ethnic elites across the spectrum renounce the ideology of division and Abiy begins governing instead of posturing, no visit, no handshake, no diplomatic tour will save Ethiopia.
Ethiopia does not need another photo-op. It needs a revolution of conscience.
