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Dear Scholars, Professionals and Politicians:-
The theme of your conference is “Political culture and the challenge of transition.” At first sight, it appears to be relevant and useful for today’s Ethiopia. Participants include some from the US and quite a few from within Ethiopia.
It is all very well to discuss the political culture which is known to be backward, but the challenge of transition is relatively easy to tackle if suitably enforced, as in South Africa in 1990-1994, where there was Apartheid and no political culture for the great majority – blacks, those of mixed race and Indians. However, soon after leaving prison in 1990, Mandela set about working on conditions for a transition to Democracy. Of course, he had the full support of Botha for a short while, and then that of President De Clerk on a much larger scale. Without any political culture, 1994 saw the birth of democratic Federal South Africa. How did they do it ?
They had a patriotic leader in Nelson Mandela, and similarly gifted lieutenants in Ramaphosa, the current President of South Africa. Ethiopia could have done the same in 1972, in 1991 and again in 2010, However, Mengistu was politically illiterate and he had come for sheer revenge, Meles and Tigray Liberation Front had come for revenge and plunder, and Abiy is here with a shrewd start to empower a tiny sector of Ethiopians and he has also failed there. In addition, he has no sense of leadership so that, today, even his Oromia is bleeding under a civil war, and other parts of the country are doing no better. However, even though he claims to have built a strong defense force, its performance so far is questionable so that some day, perhaps soon, the country may decide to force him to sit for a Transitional Government, just like NP was forced by ANC, SACP and others. in South Africa. So the question is: How do we mange the transition when it comes ? “Transition” is in your conference theme, but you seem to avoid it, just like the elite at home where they do it for good reason.
A transition, when it comes, requires. the following, among others: (1) A Transitional Government, (2) a democratic constitution with proper checks and balances without Kilil, (3) a democratic Election Commission, and (4) a democratic Election law , among others.
Now, if the people prevail on Abiy to agree to the installment of a Transitional Government, these and others need to be prepared, probably in a hurry, by people who are less qualified than a seasoned professional. That may bring us back to 1991, but you can draft these now and make them available for discussion to all stakeholders. Perhaps a good reference is this regard is the South African experience, I can give you a specific publication on the transition if you cannot find one on your own.
Ethiopian professionals cannot prepare these documents because of fear of political persecution, but you can since you are in America and since you have better resources for preparing them.
In my area of speciality, we often say it is futile to investigate if you know enough about the problem already. We know we have a poor political culture and so was the case in South Africa in 1991, but that did not stop Mandela from providing the leadership to get everybody together, including President De Clerk. The transition was possible after Botha, and latter De Clerk, agreed mainly under military pressure. Even mighty USA has been driven out of Vietnam byt the people, let alone a disorganized African regime. A transitional Government is, therefore, also possible in Ethiopia. What may be lacking is a solid preparation to welcome its arrival. I appeal to you to take this seriously. Imbylta has done some work, and Dr. Yonas Biru appears to be ready to chip in.
I second Andinet Semere’s excellent recommendation. Let FESP do some preparation for the eventuality of a transitional government so when the opportunity arises, the moment is not sabotaged again by the superpowers that have a destructive agenda for Ethiopia.