This intense standoff has not only led to heavy militarization and numerous human rights allegations, such as heavy-handed tactics and excessive use of drones, but also imposed a severe humanitarian crisis** with mass civilian displacement. Reports highlight a significant increase in violence and unrest following controversial governmental actions to integrate local security forces into the national framework, perceived by many as an assault on regional autonomy.
The state of emergency declared in August 2023 has brought restrictions, yet clashes and civil dissatisfaction persist. Understanding the intricate dynamics and historical tensions remains vital for deciphering the federal government’s contentious strategies and the broader implications for Ethiopia’s unity and stability.
Timeline and Background of the Federal Government-Amhara Conflict
Historical Tensions Between Federal and Regional Authorities
Historical tensions between the Ethiopian federal government and Amhara regional authorities have shaped the background of today’s conflict. Ethiopia’s current ethnic federal system, introduced in the early 1990s, gave regional states certain self-governing rights. However, deep mistrust has always existed between the central government in Addis Ababa and some powerful regional administrations, including Amhara.
Over the years, Amhara leaders and communities felt sidelined by shifting federal policies and alliances. They viewed efforts to centralize power, especially under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rule, as a threat to their autonomy and interests. The sense of betrayal grew following perceived lack of recognition for Amhara’s sacrifices in national conflicts and disputes with neighboring regions. According to sources like African Arguments and International Crisis Group, federal crackdowns and security operations in Amhara led to popular resentment, fueling the rise of local militias like Fano.
This strained relationship only deepened as the federal government strengthened its hold, while Amhara groups demanded more say in political and security matters.
Major Events Leading Up to the 2023 Escalation
Major events leading to the 2023 escalation reveal a slow build-up of grievances and confrontations. During the Tigray war (2020-2022), Amhara regional forces and the federal government allied against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, that partnership began to unravel after the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray war in late 2022.
Amhara factions were angered by the peace deal’s terms, especially over contested territories like Wolqayt and Humera. As Addis Ababa and Tigrayan leaders began peace talks, Amhara leaders and militia groups accused the federal government of preparing to reverse land gains Amhara had made during the war. Public protests and rhetoric against federal policies intensified in early 2023.
In April 2023, clashes erupted after the government announced the dismantling of Amhara’s Special Forces. State of Emergency orders and widespread violence soon followed, setting the stage for full-scale insurgency and mass arrests by August.
The Abolishment of Amhara Special Forces
The abolishment of Amhara Special Forces played a pivotal role in pushing relations to the brink. On April 6, 2023, the Ethiopian federal government ordered all regional special forces, including Amhara’s, to disband and either join the federal army or local police. This reform was intended to create a single, unified military structure across the country.
Amhara Special Forces, however, were seen by locals as protectors of Amhara interests—especially along the tense border with Tigray. Many in the region believed the directive was aimed at weakening their defense and eroding regional autonomy. According to reports from Reuters and Wilson Center, this sparked gunfire, widespread protests, and direct confrontations between Amhara units and government troops. The move, rather than calming the situation, led many former members to align with the Fano militia, deepening the armed resistance.
Tensions With the Tigray Region
Tensions with the Tigray region are a key driver of the larger conflict. Amhara and Tigray have long contested border areas, especially after the Tigray war displaced many Tigrayan forces and brought Amhara militias into formerly Tigrayan-administered locations.
Amhara claims over western Tigray (called Welkait and Humera in Amhara terms) intensified ethnic rivalry. The Pretoria Agreement raised fears among Amharas that these lands would be handed back to Tigray. As reported by AP News, the rivalry was not only about land but also about historical identity, resource control, and political influence.
Sporadic violence and reports of atrocities against civilians in both regions fueled cycles of retaliation. With peace talks not fairly representing their interests, Amhara factions grew even more suspicious of the federal government’s motivations, making reconciliation increasingly difficult.
The historical context and direct government actions in 2023 combined with regional ethnic competition all contributed to a situation where mistrust boiled into open warfare, reshaping Ethiopian politics yet again.
Key Actors and Stakeholders
The Federal Government: Leadership, Goals, and Policies
The federal government of Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, plays a central role in the conflict with the Amhara region. Their main goal is to maintain national unity and control, especially after years of ethnic-based federalism that have sometimes fueled local power struggles. The federal government is responsible for major policy decisions such as the disbanding of regional special forces and implementing reforms aimed at centralizing authority. Recent years saw policies focused on consolidating power, reducing the influence of regional armed groups, and promoting a unified national army. These actions often angered regional leaders and local populations, especially in Amhara, who saw them as a threat to their autonomy and security.
The federal leadership also justifies its security operations as needed for law and order, while critics say these policies weaken regional self-defense and can provoke resistance from regional groups and militias.
Amhara Regional Administration and Local Authorities
Amhara’s regional administration is a key actor, caught between demands from the federal government and pressures from local society. The Amhara regional government includes the regional president, local councils, and administrators in various towns and woredas (districts). This administration initially tried to cooperate with federal security policies, but has faced increasing criticism from local populations and militias like Fano, who felt betrayed by what they saw as weakness or complicity.
Local authorities often face dilemmas, needing to balance security concerns, their constituents’ demands for protection, and federal mandates. The resignation and replacement of regional leaders during the crisis further deepened the uncertainty and struggle over authority.
The Role and Structure of Fano Militias
Fano militias emerged as some of the most critical non-state actors in the Amhara conflict. Fano refers to loosely organized, community-based armed groups claiming to defend Amhara interests. Rooted in local history and traditions of self-defense, Fano expanded significantly during the Tigray conflict, sometimes coordinating with official security forces. By 2023, Fano groups had grown both in size and influence, taking on a strong anti-federal stance and often clashing with Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and federal police.
Fano’s organizational structure is decentralized. Different groups operate in various areas, some more organized and armed than others. They are seen by supporters as defenders against outside threats but are often viewed by the government as destabilizing militias that must be controlled or disbanded.
The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF)
The Ethiopian National Defense Forces are the country’s main military arm, reporting directly to federal leaders. During the Amhara conflict, the ENDF was tasked with restoring order and cracking down on armed resistance in the region. They used a mix of military tactics, including the use of drones, heavy artillery, and ground forces in both urban and rural areas. The military aims to neutralize rival armed groups, enforce the disbanding of regional special forces, and reassert federal control.
However, the ENDF’s involvement often intensified local grievances, with reports of civilian casualties, allegations of abuses, and widespread displacement. Their actions are both a show of federal resolve and a source of continued tension with local populations and armed groups like Fano.
Other Ethnic Groups: Qimant, Oromo, and Their Interests
Other ethnic groups, such as the Qimant and Oromo, also influence the dynamics of the conflict in Amhara. The Qimant, a minority group within the Amhara region, have faced disputes over autonomy and territorial rights, at times clashing with Amhara security forces and Fano militias. Their quest for greater self-governance adds another layer to local instability.
The Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, have their own interests, particularly regarding shared security concerns, boundary disputes, and federal relations. Tensions occasionally flare between Amhara and Oromo communities, especially in contested areas along regional borders.
Understanding these key actors—federal government, Amhara authorities, Fano militias, ENDF, and other ethnic groups—is essential for grasping the complexity of the federal government-Amhara conflict and why it remains unresolved.
Government Policy to Disband Regional Special Forces
The Ethiopian federal government’s decision to disband regional special forces in April 2023 was one of the main triggers for the conflict in Amhara. According to reports from the Wilson Center, Reuters, and other sources, the government ordered all regions to dismantle their paramilitary forces and either absorb them into the federal army, integrate them into the regular police, or demobilize them completely. The government said this was meant to build a more centralized and unified security structure across the country, preventing “regional armies” from threatening national integrity.
However, the move was especially sensitive in the Amhara region. Many people there felt the Amhara Special Forces were vital for protecting their communities, especially after the recent war with the neighboring Tigray region. Amhara activists and local leaders saw the government’s order not just as a technical reform, but as a direct threat to Amhara security and political power. The disbandment sparked widespread protests, gunfire in towns, and armed resistance by members who refused to lay down their arms. This federal policy to dismantle regional special forces quickly escalated tensions and led to open clashes in the region.
Contested Territories: Wolqayt, Humera, Telemt, and Others
The issue of contested territories is a deep and long-standing cause of strain between the Amhara and Tigray regions. Areas like Wolqayt, Humera, Telemt, and Raya have switched hands several times over the past decades, especially during and after the Tigray conflict. These areas were officially part of the Tigray region, but many locals identify as Amhara and have demanded reunification with the Amhara region.
During the Tigray war, Amhara forces took control of these contested lands. For many Amharas, holding these territories is about protecting their people and reversing historic injustices caused by previous governments who re-drew the borders. For the Tigrayans, these same areas are seen as part of their historic homeland. Reports from ACLED, ReliefWeb, and the Rift Valley Institute highlight that disputes over Wolqayt, Humera, and Telemt remain unresolved, fueling tension not only between Amhara and Tigray, but also between regional authorities and the federal government.
With national peace talks after the Tigray war, there were expectations that these territories might be returned or their status negotiated. Instead, many Amharas feared their control would be stripped away by the central government due to diplomatic pressure, adding yet another layer of mistrust.
Assertive Federal Security Measures and State of Emergency
The federal government’s response to rising violence in Amhara was swift and forceful. In August 2023, as clashes between federal security forces and local militias like Fano intensified, authorities declared a six-month state of emergency in the region. Parliament later extended this emergency period, and it was applied nationwide, not just to Amhara.
Under the state of emergency, the government granted sweeping powers to security forces: curfews, roadblocks, mass arrests, and restrictions on movement and internet access became common. Reports from Al Jazeera and Amnesty International describe how security forces detained not only suspected fighters, but also journalists, political activists, and community leaders seen as critical of the government. Human rights groups noted growing fears of arbitrary detention and abuses.
These assertive federal security measures, aimed at quickly restoring control, deepened the rift between the Amhara region and the federal authorities. Locals saw these acts as further proof that their rights and security were being undermined, fueling support for resistance and making reconciliation even harder.
Major Phases and Theatres of the 2023 Conflict
April–August 2023: Outbreak and Peak Clashes
During April to August 2023, the Amhara conflict sharply escalated and became one of Ethiopia’s most violent crises. The fighting began soon after the federal government announced plans to disband regional special forces, sparking protests and outright rebellion in the Amhara region. The clashes rapidly spread from rural areas into the region’s urban centers. According to reports, nearly 90 distinct armed clashes occurred in August alone, far more than the previous months. These were not just small skirmishes. Full-scale battles took place between federal forces and local armed groups, particularly the Fano militia and members of disbanded special forces. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) responded with a heavy hand, deploying military units to reclaim towns and cities that had briefly fallen out of government control.
Armed Resistance by Fano and Former Special Forces
Armed resistance in the 2023 Amhara conflict was spearheaded by the Fano militias and large contingents of former special forces who refused disarmament. Following the disbandment, many former security men joined or reactivated their Fano allegiance. Armed with rifles and local support, Fano and its allies quickly gained ground in both rural and urban settings. Their resistance intensified through direct confrontations with the ENDF, causing deadly clashes and significant instability. Multiple sources describe the resistance as determined and deeply rooted in community networks. The goal of Fano was widely reported as defending Amhara interests and autonomy against centralization efforts from Addis Ababa. Social media, as well as local word of mouth, played a key role in mobilizing fighters and informing locals of federal military movements.
Urban Centers: Bahir Dar, Gondar, Woldia, and North Wello
Urban centers in the Amhara region became some of the bloodiest theatres of the 2023 conflict. In Bahir Dar, the region’s capital, and in other key cities like Gondar, Woldia, and throughout North Wello, fighting often occurred street by street. For a time in early August, Fano militias controlled parts of Bahir Dar and seized strategic facilities, including airports. In Gondar and Woldia, both government and militia forces dug in, leading to open gun battles, movement restrictions, and the closure of businesses and schools. The federal government launched several offensives to retake these towns. When the ENDF succeeded in recapturing these centers, the militias often withdrew to surrounding countryside to regroup and launch fresh assaults later. This cycle left many urban areas unstable and disrupted normal daily life for months.
Displacement, Clashes, and Changing Control of Towns
The fighting in the Amhara conflict led to massive displacement and constantly shifting control over towns. Reports show that by early August, towns and even airports in the region moved back and forth between government and militia control. One day, Fano might control a major town; by the next, federal forces could reclaim it, only for it to fall again later. Residents caught in the crossfire faced displacement on a large scale, with entire communities leaving their homes to escape violence. Some sources reported more than 80 percent of the region at times controlled by Fano, especially in rural zones, while ENDF mostly held highways and city centers. The movement of people intensified humanitarian needs, and the destruction left by the fighting complicated efforts for aid delivery.
During these months, control over Amhara was never stable. The region’s conflict was marked by fluid frontlines, frequent battles, and mass civilian displacement, making April to August 2023 a time of severe crisis for both the local population and the Ethiopian state.
Methods and Impact of Federal Response
Military Operations: Use of Drones and Heavy Artillery
Military operations during the 2023 Federal Government-Amhara conflict used a combination of drones and heavy artillery to try and regain control over troubled regions. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) deployed drones, which allowed for airstrikes against Fano militia positions and some urban areas. According to several international reports and news outlets, these drone strikes targeted not only armed fighters but also hit civilian areas, raising concern among human rights groups.
Heavy artillery was also used, especially in towns like Bahir Dar, Gondar, and in rural zones where Fano forces were active. The military presence made daily life extremely risky for local communities. Many residents reported the sounds of shelling or saw the remnants of destroyed buildings. These tactics reportedly led to heavy damage to infrastructure and significant psychological trauma among civilians. Local and international observers have commented that such operations, while meant to restore order, often deepened mistrust between the local population and federal authorities.
Security Crackdowns: Arrests, Internet Shutdowns, and Emergency Laws
Security crackdowns followed the military operations almost everywhere in Amhara. The federal government declared a state of emergency, which gave security forces sweeping powers. This included imposing curfews, restricting movement, and shutting down the internet in large parts of Amhara. For months, people reported that they were cut off from the rest of the country and the world, making it very hard to share information or contact relatives.
Mass arrests became widespread. Federal police and soldiers detained thousands, including suspected Fano members, activists, journalists, and outspoken community leaders. Many detainees were held without charge for weeks or months, with little access to legal help or information about their whereabouts. Human rights groups noted that the crackdown often ignored due process and was seen by many as a tool for intimidating those who opposed federal policies. The shutdown of the internet also impacted businesses, students, and health services, amplifying the hardship faced by ordinary families.
Human Rights Violations: Civilian Casualties and Displacement
Human rights violations became a prominent issue during and after the federal response. Several humanitarian organizations and news articles highlighted civilian casualties caused by military operations, drone strikes, and clashes in crowded neighborhoods. Hospitals in Gondar, Bahir Dar, and other towns reported a high number of injuries and deaths among noncombatants. Some reports said the fear of indiscriminate attacks made people afraid to leave their homes.
The conflict caused large-scale displacement. Many families fled fighting in search of safety, both within and outside the Amhara region. Camps for internally displaced people grew rapidly, but often lacked enough food, clean water, and medical care. Some displaced people reported being separated from their families during the chaos of military crackdowns.
These incidents attracted the attention of international human rights organizations. They accused both federal forces and local militias of abuses, but especially criticized the use of heavy weapons in civilian areas and the crackdown on freedom of movement and expression. The longer the conflict went on, the greater the humanitarian crisis became, leaving lasting scars on the Amhara region’s communities.
Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations and Border Tensions
Ethiopia-Eritrea relations have been tense in recent years, especially after 2022 when the dynamics around Tigray changed. In 2023 and 2024, border tensions sharply increased. Both countries have accused each other of supporting opposing factions, and their military posturing along the shared border has intensified.
During the Amhara conflict, Eritrea became nervous about instability along its borders, especially as Tigray regional forces and Ethiopian government forces moved military units in border areas. Reports suggest that some Tigrayan fighters, after peace agreements, regrouped near the Eritrean border, heightening Eritrean fears of renewed conflict. Ethiopia’s internal conflict in Amhara also distracted federal attention from the Eritrean border, leading to more uncertainty. Accusations of cross-border raids, military build-ups, and even artillery exchanges have surfaced multiple times since 2023, making the region very fragile.
These border tensions add another unpredictable layer to the Amhara conflict, as the risk of a spillover or direct Ethiopia-Eritrea clash remains real. International organizations have called for restraint because of the risk that a new war could erupt, pulling the already unstable Horn of Africa into deeper crisis.
Al-Fashaga Triangle and Ethio-Sudan Dispute
The Al-Fashaga Triangle is a fertile, disputed area along the Ethiopia-Sudan border. Even as Ethiopia dealt with the Amhara crisis, the dispute over Al-Fashaga remained unsolved and tense. Amhara farmers have worked these lands for decades, but Sudan claims sovereignty. When Sudanese forces expelled Ethiopian (mainly Amhara) farmers and their defenders in previous years, it ignited local anger in both Sudan and Ethiopia.
In 2023, while Ethiopia faced internal conflict in Amhara, Sudan took steps to solidify its hold over the triangle. Military confrontations flared along the border, with both sides at times mobilizing troops to the region. The instability in Ethiopia distracted federal forces and allowed Sudan to push its claims more aggressively. This has kept border communities anxious and has at times led to direct violence involving local militias and soldiers.
Therefore, the Al-Fashaga dispute not only worsened Ethiopia’s external pressures but also drew attention away from internal reconciliation in Amhara. The risk that the border issue could explode again always remains high, complicating any peaceful solution inside Ethiopia.
International Humanitarian and Rights Reports
International humanitarian and rights organizations have closely monitored the Amhara conflict and its impact on civilians. Major groups such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the United Nations, and the US State Department have all released reports highlighting serious abuses.
These reports describe widespread violations, including attacks on health care, extrajudicial executions, arbitrary arrests, and displacement of ordinary people. Humanitarian access to conflict areas has been restricted, leaving thousands without needed aid. The United Nations and global human rights leaders have repeatedly called for de-escalation, accountability, and respect for human rights, warning that if the fighting continues, a much larger civilian crisis could develop.
For example, Human Rights Watch documented war crimes against medical professionals and patients by Ethiopian security forces, while Amnesty International and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights have highlighted the urgency of stopping abuses, providing humanitarian access, and holding perpetrators accountable. International public pressure has increased, with some governments calling on Ethiopia to allow investigations and to protect civilians first and foremost.
All these factors show that the wider regional and international context in the Amhara conflict goes far beyond Ethiopia’s borders and is a part of broader instability in the Horn of Africa. The involvement of major humanitarian actors and the risk of escalation with Eritrea and Sudan mean the conflict’s resolution has become an urgent international issue.
Economic Fallout in the Amhara Region
The economic fallout in the Amhara region has been severe since the escalation of the federal conflict in 2023. The region, once full of life in areas like Lalibela known for tourism, has seen its economy almost collapse. According to reports, businesses have closed, tourist sites remain empty, and normal economic activities have stopped due to insecurity and violence. Many families have lost their sources of income because markets are unsafe, and farming has been disrupted by the fighting and displacement.
A large portion of the population now depends on aid as local trade and agriculture struggle to survive. Destruction of infrastructure like roads and markets has made it harder for goods to reach towns and villages. Many experts say widespread unemployment and poverty have increased. Some Amhara officials estimate recovery funds needed are in the billions of dollars. The situation also affects the broader Ethiopian economy as Amhara is a vital food-producing area for the country. As the conflict drags on, ordinary people in Amhara face more hardship, hunger, and instability.
Disruption of Education and Public Services
The disruption of education in the Amhara region is one of the most visible effects of the conflict. More than 4.5 million students have been kept out of school, according to recent reports, as thousands of schools remain closed or have been damaged. Some schools have even been used for military purposes or as shelters for displaced families, making it hard for teachers and students to return. Rural communities are especially affected, with many children missing out on basic education for months or even years.
Besides education, public services like healthcare, water supply, and transport have all suffered as well. Many health centers have closed or are running low on supplies. Teachers and healthcare staff have not been able to safely do their jobs. This gap in services leaves people more vulnerable to disease, malnutrition, and emergencies. Both local and international organizations have warned that this lack of services could have lasting effects on an entire generation of children and youth in the region.
Civil Society and Grassroots Mobilization
Civil society and grassroots mobilization in Amhara have both struggled and shown resilience during the conflict. The crackdown on civic space has made it very hard for local organizations, activists, and community leaders to operate. Basic activities like holding meetings, delivering humanitarian aid, or advocating for peace have been limited by security threats and emergency laws. However, some civil society organizations have continued to call for dialogue, peace, and accountability, even as the risks have grown.
At the grassroots level, many communities have engaged in mutual aid, organizing themselves to help displaced people, and trying to resolve local disputes. Traditional elders and religious leaders have attempted to mediate between conflicting sides in some places. While their efforts are sometimes blocked by violence, these actions show that local mobilization remains a key factor for both survival and future peacebuilding. Still, much more support and space are needed for civil society to flourish and play its vital role.
Diaspora Protests and International Advocacy
Diaspora protests and international advocacy concerning the Amhara conflict have become much more active since 2023. Ethiopians from the Amhara region living abroad have organized rallies in cities around the world, including Washington, DC, London, and Toronto, to bring global attention to the violence and urge action. These demonstrations often call for an end to the conflict, protection for civilians, and more international pressure on both Ethiopian federal authorities and the international community.
Many advocacy groups linked to the diaspora have used social media to share updates and to raise funds for humanitarian relief. They have also lobbied institutions like the United Nations and the US Congress, demanding investigations into alleged human rights abuses in Amhara. The diaspora’s voice has become particularly important as local civil society inside Ethiopia faces so many challenges. International human rights organizations have echoed some of these calls, but so far, the practical impact remains limited as violence and political uncertainty continue.
Attempts at Mediation and Peace Processes
The Pretoria Agreement and Its Impact on Amhara
The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022, mainly ended the two-year war between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the impact of the Pretoria Agreement on the Amhara region has been complex and controversial. While it brought peace to Tigray, many in Amhara felt excluded from the peace process and worried about the fate of contested areas such as Wolqayt and Humera, which are claimed by both Tigrayans and Amharas.
The agreement required federal security forces to enter these disputed zones, leading to fears among Amharas about loss of territory and security. As a result, frustration grew in the Amhara region, with some seeing the federal government’s actions as a betrayal of Amhara interests. Tensions increased, and local militias like Fano became more active, seeing themselves as protectors of Amhara land and people. So, while Pretoria stopped major fighting in the north, new conflicts began to grow in Amhara, partly because local concerns were not addressed in the deal.
Domestic Calls for National Dialogue and Reform
Inside Ethiopia, many civil society groups, religious leaders, and community organizations have called for a genuine national dialogue. These calls have increased since the outbreak of violence in the Amhara region in 2023. Many Ethiopians believe that only an inclusive national conversation can resolve deep-rooted problems over power-sharing, ethnic federalism, and historical grievances.
National dialogue is seen as necessary to heal the distrust between regions and the federal government. The Ethiopian government has announced plans for a “National Dialogue Commission,” but some critics say it lacks real independence and doesn’t include all relevant voices, especially groups like the Fano and dissident regional leaders. Without widespread participation, many fear that talks may only offer temporary relief instead of lasting solutions. Still, within Ethiopia, hopes remain that real reform and open talk could help calm the conflict and set a new path for peace.
International Calls for Ceasefire and Negotiations
Around the world, foreign governments, the United Nations, and human rights organizations have pressed Ethiopia to stop hostilities and seek a peaceful solution. After violence flared in Amhara in 2023, the African Union, European Union, and the US all called for immediate ceasefires and meaningful negotiations between the government and regional actors. These international voices have highlighted concerns about humanitarian crises, displacement, and civilian casualties.
The international community has also offered to help mediate or support monitoring of any peace process. However, there are challenges, as the Ethiopian government has sometimes been wary of foreign involvement, arguing that such matters should remain internal. As attacks and crackdowns continued, pressure from abroad increased for de-escalation, respect for human rights, and protection of civilians. Even with these calls, finding a balance between national sovereignty and global responsibility remains a major challenge for any peace process in Ethiopia.
Future of Regional Autonomy in Ethiopia
The future of regional autonomy in Ethiopia remains a core challenge for the country’s stability. Ethiopia’s federal system is based on granting regions significant powers, including cultural and linguistic rights. The constitution requires local governments to be autonomous and accountable to their citizens. However, this autonomy is now seriously questioned due to ongoing conflicts and central government actions.
Recent years have seen moves by the federal government, especially under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, to strengthen central control. Policies such as absorbing regional special forces into national ones and dissolving older regional arrangements, like the SNNPR, have caused concern among many groups. In Amhara, the Fano militia claims to fight for both regional autonomy and broader national reforms.
Events in 2024, such as new violence and the dissolution of some regional setups, have made people wonder if true autonomy for Ethiopian states is shrinking. While public promises to advance “strategic autonomy” exist, local conflicts still prevent real local democratic power. The future of regional autonomy in Ethiopia will depend on whether both federal and regional leaders can agree on power-sharing and respect constitutional rights amid ongoing unrest.
Prospects for Reconciliation and Political Reform
The prospects for reconciliation and political reform in Ethiopia, especially around the Amhara conflict, remain uncertain but not impossible. According to recent reports, these prospects depend on a mix of local peacebuilding, genuine national reforms, and external pressure for accountability from international actors.
Dialogue and negotiation between federal authorities and Amhara representatives, including armed groups like Fano, are widely encouraged by analysts as a path forward. Without inclusive talks and compromise, the risk of a wider crisis increases. Experts point out that solutions must address both historic grievances, such as political exclusion of the Amhara, and newer disputes over contested territories.
Major peacebuilding efforts also depend on strengthening Ethiopia’s conflict resolution institutions, such as community elder mediation, and embracing transitional justice. National-level reforms—including more equal representation, protection of regional rights, and credible implementation of transitional justice policies—are urgently needed. Still, as long as armed clashes continue, progress will be slow. Lasting peace will require trust-building, reforms, and credible steps towards inclusion and justice for all groups.
Long-term Security and Governance Challenges
Ethiopia faces severe long-term security and governance challenges, especially seen in the ongoing violence between the federal government and armed groups in Amhara. The conflict reveals deep issues in both the country’s federal model and the relationship between central and regional powers.
Security is threatened by the presence and actions of militias such as Fano, which continue to challenge federal authority and control in parts of Amhara. The situation is worsened by repeated states of emergency, communications shutdowns, and widespread insecurity. Governance challenges are clear: political and ethnic divisions, lack of trust between citizens and authorities, and heavy-handed crackdowns have made progress difficult.
Reports show that conflicts not only cause suffering and displacement but also weaken basic public services, economic progress, and rights protections. To address these long-term issues, Ethiopia will need to rebuild confidence in both federal and regional institutions, ensure fair resource sharing, and foster real dialogue among all ethnic and political groups.
Moving forward, the big questions will be whether Ethiopia can reform its federal system to balance unity with diversity and whether it can build inclusive, effective governance that prevents new violence. It is a tough road, but the stakes—national unity, peace, and the well-being of millions—are tremendously high.