Ethiopia Needs Long-term National Development Plan (Part Three)

Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD

2024-05-26

In this section we will discuss about one of the standard steps in the preparation of a long-term national development plan for Ethiopia, namely data collection and situational analysis. Data collection means gather comprehensive data on the current socio-economic, political, and regional conditions. Situation analysis means conducting root cause analysis of the recurrent problems of the country.

Often the Planning Commission and Government Ministries collect data and prepare reports on the current policies, programs, and performance of specific sectors (health, education, agriculture, industry, etc.) and cross-cutting themes (e.g., productive capacity building, environment). In addition, the Planning Commission gives also assignment to independent researchers to conduct studies on specific issues or sectors, ensuring an objective and comprehensive analysis.

As I mentioned in the previous part, the data and the documents are not available to us to understand the current policies, programs, and performance and identify the challenging issues that needs to be addressed in the long-term plan. But there is an urgent need for a long-term national development plan for the country and we have to take some steps to address this challenge. How long do we need to wait?

Based on available academic studies and my own research studies on the recurrent problems of the country, I will suggest the problems that needs to be prioritized and assessed for the long-term national development plan of the country. (You can have access to my research works form Stockholm University database and Uppsala University database. You can find also some of my popular writing on the problems from websites of The Habehsa and Ethiopian Business Review). I have researched on recurrent problems for almost two decades based on the perspective of rapid population growth, which is multidimensional, holistic and an integrative perspective.

Totally I have identified 41 recurrent problems. The following issues have occurred repeatedly over time in the past two decades: inflation, unemployment, under employment, informal economy, currency volatility, economic recession, balance of payments problems, financial crises, public debt crisis, low productivity growth, high unemployment rates, income inequality, economic vulnerability, slow industrialization, regional disparities, poor innovation and competitiveness, environmental degradation, water shortages, food insecurity, energy crises, economic instability, social unrest, low health coverage, poor living conditions, food insecurity, low educational attainment, economic vulnerability, social exclusion and marginalization, intergenerational poverty, economic disparities, migration patterns, infrastructure gaps, social inequities, environmental degradation, political discontent, educational disparities, inefficiency and poor service delivery, low public trust and confidence, economic stagnation, social inequities, political conflicts, lack of accountability, poor crisis response, legal and regulatory failures. (You can translate them into Amharic).

The need and demands of a rapidly growing population, backlog and additional need and demand every year under fragile institutional context has created the recurrence of these problems. The problems often relate to the mismatch between need and demand of rapidly growing population, supply and demand, resource allocation, and capacity planning. How can we reduce backlogs, meet increasing demand, and prevent these problems from recurring year after year?

There is a need for a root cause analysis to prevent the problem from recurring. Root cause analysis explores the various fundamental factors that could be contributing to the problem. The tools and techniques of root cause analysis helps to develop solutions.

However, conducting a root cause analysis for each individual problem can lead to fragmentation and inefficiency. It is necessary at first to consider their interdependence and interactions. There is a need for regrouping them based on some kind of holistic approach.

Moreover, one cannot solve the 41 recurrent problems all at once through a fragmented approach and in short and mid-term plan. Addressing the recurrent problems effectively requires a strategic, long-term approach. The question is now what kind of approach is appropriate for regrouping the recurrent problems for the purpose of root cause analysis and long-term planning.

There are three approaches that are often used in regrouping the 41 recurrent problems facing the country.  The first is a macro-level approach which clusters the recurrent problems into major categories (Social, Economic, Political, Spatial). For instance, the economic issues include inflation, unemployment, economic instability, debt crisis, etc. The social issues include poverty, inequality, regional disparities, food insecurity, health problems, etc. The political issues relate to governance, political stability, accountability, and regulatory frameworks. Spatial issues concern geographic and environmental factors, infrastructure development, and regional disparities

Grouping the problems in this way helps to identify specific areas of focus for policy discussion with stakeholder. It provides a straightforward and easy-to-understand framework for organizing problems. However, the macro-level clustering approach of recurrent problems overlook the interconnectedness and interdependencies between problems across different categories, potentially leading to fragmented solutions. This approach does not provide deeper understanding of underlying interconnected issues.

The second approach which is often used by the planning commission is the regrouping of the 41 recurrent problems based on sector and sub-sector approach. This approach allows for targeted interventions within specific sectors (such as education, health, agriculture, etc.) to address the problems more directly. It facilitates the involvement of specialized experts and stakeholders who can contribute domain-specific knowledge and insights. However, focusing on sector-specific issues results in fragmented planning and implementation, overlooking broader systemic issues. Coordinating interventions across various sectors and sub-sectors can be challenging, requiring strong institutional mechanisms and collaboration.

The third one is my approach. I have used system and structure approach to regroup the 41 recurrent problems for the purpose of identifying the underlying common causes. The system-structure based approach provides a holistic understanding of recurrent problems by considering their systemic interdependencies and structures. It highlights the interconnectedness between problems and enables the identification of cross-cutting issues that require integrated solutions. This approach allows for the formation of vision, identification of goals and development of strategic, integrated solutions that address root causes. As we shall discuss in the next part of my presentation, this approach is complex requiring extensive knowledge in various fields.