Many Ethiopians ask: what caused the current turmoil in Ethiopia? Did it begin under Mengistu Haile Mariam and the Derg, worsen under Meles Zenawi, and peak under Abiy Ahmed Ali? Decades of coups, centralization, famine, protests, and the Tigray war left wounds that still shape daily life.
This article follows a clear timeline to explain how policies and conflicts stacked up. We examine the legacy of the Derg, the federal era under Meles Zenawi, and the reforms and wars under Abiy Ahmed Ali. We also note public claims like “from 7th grade to a PhD,” and why such questions fuel distrust. Our aim is to separate emotion from evidence, and to map causes, costs, and choices behind the current turmoil in Ethiopia.
Historical Context of Ethiopia’s Political Crisis
The Imperial Era and Early Dissent
The Imperial era in Ethiopia lasted through the reigns of powerful rulers like Menelik II and Haile Selassie. While these emperors are credited with helping Ethiopia stay independent during Africa’s colonial period, their rule was far from peaceful or inclusive. The empire was built through wars of conquest and the forced addition of many regions, leading to deep grievances among diverse ethnic groups. Elite families and local rulers often clashed with the monarchy, and ordinary people suffered from land dispossession, high taxes, and suppression.
During the 1960s, dissent became more organized. Students and intellectuals formed a vocal opposition, demanding reform and more rights for peasants and marginalized communities. Yet, attempts to raise these concerns were crushed quickly. The imperial government was known for jailing or banning anyone suspected of criticism, and even prominent families feared the regime’s response to dissent. Over time, this climate of discontent and repression laid the groundwork for revolution.
The Derg Regime: Mengistu Haile Mariam and Repression
After the fall of the monarchy in 1974, a Marxist military junta known as the Derg seized power. Under Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, Ethiopia entered one of its darkest chapters.
Red Terror and Widespread Human Rights Abuses
The “Red Terror” campaign saw government-backed squads systematically murder and imprison opponents. Tens of thousands of suspected activists, students, and everyday citizens were executed without trial, and survivors recall years of widespread torture and disappearances. This period is recognized internationally for its brutal human rights abuses, with many officials later convicted of crimes against humanity and genocide.
The Role of Famine and Economic Collapse
Making things much worse, the Derg governed during the 1983–85 famine, the worst in Ethiopia’s modern history. An estimated one million people died due to starvation and disease, while millions more became refugees. The government’s rigid communist policies—including forced resettlements, collectivized agriculture, and a focus on war rather than relief—worsened the crisis. Economic collapse deepened resentment against the regime, fueling ongoing insurgencies.
Transition to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)
The Derg’s failures left Ethiopia in chaos until the early 1990s, when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethno-regional armed groups, toppled the military junta. This transition promised hope but also carried new challenges.
Ethnic Federalism: Promise and Pitfalls
To address old grievances, the EPRDF government introduced ethnic federalism in the 1990s. This system divided the country into regions based largely on ethnicity, hoping to give each group greater autonomy over language, culture, and governance. At first, some celebrated this as a way to honor Ethiopia’s diversity after decades of forced assimilation.
But the ethnic federal system also created competition for resources and power. It deepened lines of division, sometimes igniting conflicts over borders and identity. Over time, critics warned that ethnic federalism reinforced and politicized divisions rather than building unity.
Meles Zenawi’s Legacy and the Seeds of Division
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the dominant EPRDF leader until his death in 2012, left a complicated legacy. He is credited with bringing stability and rapid economic growth, as well as a bold vision for Ethiopia’s development. However, Meles’s policies also hardened the ethnic federalist model, making it a permanent feature of politics.
While his administration was hailed in some circles for lifting millions out of poverty, it is also widely seen as having deepened ethnic fault lines and encouraged authoritarian tendencies. The seeds of the political crisis visible today—including ethnic violence and contestation over central power—were planted in these years. Meles’s legacy is thus debated: some see him as a nation-builder, others as the architect of Ethiopia’s current divisions and ongoing instability.
Rise of Abiy Ahmed: Reform, Conflict, and Controversy
Abiy Ahmed’s Background and Academic Credentials
Abiy Ahmed’s background is an important part of his story and the expectations placed on him. Born in 1976 in Beshasha, Oromia, Abiy grew up in a multi-ethnic household. His father was Oromo Muslim, and his mother was Amhara Christian. Abiy Ahmed joined the Ethiopian army as a teenager during the civil war against the Derg regime. He later served in the intelligence and communications sectors, building a reputation as a rising political figure.
Abiy Ahmed’s academic credentials are often discussed in Ethiopia and internationally. He earned a Ph.D. from Addis Ababa University in 2017, focusing on peace and security studies. His dissertation, which analyzed conflict management in Ethiopia, was seen as hopeful by many who wanted fresh thinking in Ethiopia’s top leadership. However, there has been public skepticism about the rigor and transparency of his academic achievements. Some have accused him of inflating his background, fueling online debates and satirical commentary.
Initial Hopes: Political Openness, Peace with Eritrea, and Early Reforms
Abiy Ahmed’s rise to Prime Minister in April 2018 led to a surge of optimism in Ethiopia. Many hoped for a new era of political openness after decades of repression. Abiy released thousands of political prisoners, welcomed exiled dissidents back home, and unblocked hundreds of banned websites and TV channels. People celebrated in the streets, and international media praised his style and energetic reforms.
One of the most significant breakthroughs was the peace deal with Eritrea. Abiy Ahmed moved quickly to end the long-standing war, visiting Eritrea just months after taking office. In July 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a declaration of peace and friendship, reopening borders and restoring diplomatic ties. This brought hope not just for Ethiopians and Eritreans but also for the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Beyond peace, Abiy launched ambitious reforms: making peace with opposition groups, promising economic liberalization, and pledging free and fair elections. For a brief moment, Ethiopia gained a reputation as a model for peaceful change in Africa. Citizens were energized, hoping their voices would now matter.
The Nobel Peace Prize and Its Aftermath
In 2019, Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the conflict with Eritrea and open political space in Ethiopia. This global recognition raised expectations even higher. The world watched, hopeful that Ethiopia would finally turn the page on violence and authoritarianism.
However, the aftermath of the Nobel Prize brought fresh challenges and criticisms. Critics argue that the peace with Eritrea stalled soon after, with borders closing again and promised reforms unfulfilled. Political openness came under threat, with crackdowns on opposition figures and journalists increasing again after 2020.
The image of Abiy as a peaceful reformer began to crack. Some accused him of becoming more authoritarian, using the language of peace to consolidate personal power. Ethnic tensions grew, and the government’s response to dissent became increasingly forceful. The Nobel Prize, once seen as a proud achievement, quickly became a symbol of missed opportunities and unfulfilled promises for millions of Ethiopians.
The story of Abiy Ahmed’s rise mixes hope, conflict, and controversy. The world watched with excitement—only to witness the difficult realities that soon followed.
Fragmentation and the Escalation of Conflict
The Failure of Ethnic Federalism
The failure of ethnic federalism in Ethiopia is a painful reality for millions today. Ethnic federalism was introduced after the fall of the Derg regime as a way to give distinct ethnic groups more self-rule and protect their rights. At first, the hope was that regions based on ethnicity could reduce conflict and create equality.
Instead, ethnic federalism has done the opposite. It has made ethnic identity the most important thing in politics. Regional governments often only serve the interests of the biggest ethnic group in their area while excluding others. Such a system has deepened mistrust, tension, and sometimes open hatred between communities. Political disagreements easily turn into ethnic clashes. Displacement and communal violence have become more common.
Recently, confrontations between regions over borders, resources, and power have become worse. Regions like Amhara, Oromo, and Tigray have all seen growing calls for more autonomy or even separation. This system, instead of bringing peace, has encouraged competition and division. It became one of the main causes for the current conflicts across Ethiopia.
Outbreak of Civil War in Tigray
The outbreak of civil war in Tigray shocked people inside Ethiopia and around the world. Tensions between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government had been growing for years, especially after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power and sidelined TPLF leaders.
In November 2020, war erupted when the federal government accused the TPLF of attacking federal military bases. What started as a limited operation soon became a massive conflict involving deadly battles, airstrikes, and thousands of deaths. Eritrean troops also became involved, making the conflict more complex.
Quickly, the fighting spread to towns and villages, causing huge waves of refugees. The internet was blocked and access for journalists was almost impossible, so most people could not learn what was happening on the ground. What is clear, though, is that the Tigray conflict marked a major breakdown in the Ethiopian state.
Major Events in the Tigray Conflict
Major events in the Tigray conflict include the seizure of Mekelle, the regional capital, by government forces, which was seen as a victory. However, TPLF fighters regrouped in the countryside. They quickly launched a surprising comeback, retaking large parts of Tigray and even advancing into neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.
Heavy fighting took place in cities like Axum and Adigrat. There were also large-scale massacres reported, such as in Mai Kadra. Throughout 2021 and 2022, the war shifted back and forth, with neither side gaining full control.
A peace agreement was finally signed in late 2022, but fighting and distrust still remained. The war allowed other armed groups to grow powerful, further destabilizing Ethiopia.
Humanitarian Disasters and War Crimes Allegations
Humanitarian disasters in Tigray shocked international observers. Millions of people became dependent on aid. Large areas of the region were cut off from food, medicine, and communications. The UN and aid agencies warned of famine and thousands of civilian deaths.
Allegations of war crimes were frequent. The United Nations, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch said both sides committed atrocities. Reports include mass killings, rape as a weapon of war, forced starvation, and destruction of hospitals and schools. The killing of civilians in Axum, the Mai Kadra massacre, and the widespread use of sexual violence became symbols of the brutality.
Almost no one has faced justice. The ongoing impunity has made Ethiopia’s crisis worse and has left survivors and families without hope for accountability.
Spread of Violence to Amhara and Oromia Regions
The spread of violence to Amhara and Oromia shows that Ethiopia’s crisis is not limited to Tigray. In Amhara, militias organized to defend against TPLF attacks but later became embroiled in battles with federal troops. There have also been reports of state violence against civilians accused of supporting opposition groups.
Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, saw violence rise as well. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) became more active, fighting both government forces and rival local militias. Villages were attacked, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced.
These growing conflicts feed into one another. The loss of trust in the government and repeated army deployments have made life unstable for millions.
Rise of New Armed Groups: Fano, OLA, and Others
The rise of new armed groups is another sign of Ethiopia’s deep fragmentation. Fano, an Amhara militia, gained power and influence by claiming to defend the Amhara people. At first, they helped the government in the fight against the TPLF. Later, they began to resist government control themselves, accusing federal forces of targeting Amhara communities.
The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) claims to fight for Oromo rights but is accused by the government of committing attacks on civilians. The OLA’s popularity grows as many Oromos feel unrepresented and harassed by federal authorities.
Other local militias and irregular groups have formed in different regions. Some are ethnically-based, while others have more local or personal motives. These groups often control large areas, challenge state authority, and make peace negotiations much harder. The government’s inability to control them shows how weak and divided the country has become.
Ethiopia now faces a dangerous situation where many armed actors are fighting for power, and the old system no longer brings stability. Without a real solution, violence risks spreading even further.
Media Crackdown and Opposition Harassment
Media crackdown and opposition harassment have become deeply concerning issues in Ethiopia, especially throughout 2024 and 2025. Reports by Human Rights Watch and Freedom House confirm an increasing government crackdown on civic space and systematic targeting of both human rights organizations and media workers. Authorities have suppressed major civil society groups, suspended key rights organizations, and dissolved numerous independent bodies, all aiming to limit criticism of the state.
Continuing detentions, harassment, and legal restrictions have made it almost impossible for the opposition to participate freely in the political process. The US State Department highlighted a widespread crackdown on press freedom, including intimidation and arbitrary detention of journalists. Between 2019 and 2024, at least 92 media workers have been detained, with the number rising as conflict grows. Amnesty International also documented repeated intimidation and detention of journalists, while new laws and harsh enforcement have led to more self-censorship and a chilling effect on independent reporting.
This pressure is not only felt by journalists. Members of opposition parties still face constant restrictions, harassment, and threat of arrest, making peaceful assembly and protest very risky. The government’s attacks on critical and dissenting voices have seriously eroded freedom of expression and democracy in Ethiopia.
Social Media: Ridicule and Satire as Resistance
Social media is now a major platform for both the Ethiopian government and everyday citizens. While the state pushes pro-government narratives, uses fake accounts, and spreads disinformation, many Ethiopians use platforms like Facebook and Twitter for satire and ridicule as forms of resistance. Online, people craft memes, parodies, and humorous posts to openly mock government statements, failed policies, and even official propaganda.
A growing number of Ethiopians, especially youth, have turned to online ridicule because traditional media is either censored or too afraid to criticize. Even though authorities sometimes try to ban or limit access to popular social media platforms—especially during moments of heightened political tension—people continue to find ways around these restrictions, such as using VPNs.
Despite the risks, satire remains an important tool. Satirical content gives the public a way to highlight injustice and government failures without directly confronting the authorities. However, this resistance carries danger. Artists and social media influencers have faced detention and accusations of intimidating or inciting violence. The government’s crackdowns on digital dissent show just how uncomfortable it is with any criticism—no matter how humorous or indirect.
Academic Background: Public Criticism and Perception
Abiy Ahmed’s academic background has come under heavy public scrutiny and criticism in recent years. While Abiy holds a PhD from Addis Ababa University, several credible sources—including scholarly blogs and news sites—have raised allegations of plagiarism in his doctoral thesis. Analysts claim that entire chapters contain multiple plagiarized sections, questioning the authenticity and rigor of his academic achievements.
Public criticism grown more intense as Abiy Ahmed’s policies and books, including his “Medemer” philosophy, are widely viewed as superficial or lacking in depth by Ethiopian intellectuals and critics. There is now a strong perception among opposition voices, academics, and much of the public that Abiy’s image as a thinker and reformer is more hype than substance.
This controversy affects his reputation and legitimacy, especially at a time when his leadership faces deepening distrust due to ongoing conflict and autocratic practices. The debate about his real credentials—alongside scandals over his academic honesty—feeds wider doubt about his ability to solve complex national problems. Public discussion about Abiy’s educational record and intellectual honesty has become a symbol of the divide between the regime’s image and the reality perceived by many Ethiopians.
Economic Collapse and ‘Cult Economy’ Narratives
Absence of Coherent Economic Policy
Absence of coherent economic policy has become a major issue in Ethiopia’s ongoing crisis. As the government faces mounting political problems, its approach to the economy appears scattered and inconsistent. Many analysts and everyday citizens have noticed that policies change frequently, with new projects being launched before previous ones have been finished or even explained. Investors, both local and foreign, struggle because the rules are unclear or subject to sudden change. There is little transparency, and it is not clear whether Ethiopia is pursuing a state-led model, a private-led model, or some unpredictable mix of both. This confusion leaves businesses worried and ordinary people suffering as inflation soars, jobs disappear, and prices for basics like food and fuel rise uncontrollably.
In this atmosphere, economic policies often seem like grand announcements rather than realistic plans. Large-scale infrastructure projects appear frequently in the news, while smaller, more practical solutions for farmers, students, or workers are often ignored. This lack of stability erodes trust in economic leadership. As a result, Ethiopia’s economy is shrinking, with basic services becoming harder to access. Facing these realities, many people wonder if the government is out of ideas and simply hoping things will improve on their own.
Shock Doctrine: IMF, World Bank, and Neoliberal Experiments
Shock doctrine has become a familiar phrase in Ethiopia’s economic narrative. Facing debt and financial shortfalls, the government often turns to international lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. These institutions tend to recommend neoliberal reforms, such as cutting government spending, removing subsidies, and opening up markets quickly to foreign investors. While these steps are often announced as ways to modernize Ethiopia’s economy, the real impact on ordinary people is usually far from positive.
Many Ethiopians vividly remember previous rounds of shock therapy, which left state companies stripped, prices deregulated, and the safety net almost invisible. Critics point out that these experiments are made in boardrooms far from Addis Ababa and rarely fit the complex reality of Ethiopia’s diverse society. Often, the reforms bring hardship for people who were already struggling. Subsidies for fuel or bread disappear first, education spending is slashed, and local industries can’t compete against international giants. As a result, the economy can spiral further into crisis, while politicians claim that better days are just around the corner.
Privatization, Foreign Influence, and Public Discontent
Privatization and foreign influence have become hot topics in discussions about Ethiopia’s economy. Following suggestions from the IMF and the World Bank, the government has moved to sell or restructure major state assets, such as telecom, banking, and transport companies. Leaders claim that bringing in foreign investors will create jobs, improve services, and lift the country out of crisis. However, the reality on the ground is very different.
Most Ethiopians are witnessing the rapid selling off of their national assets to foreign companies without much debate or explanation. Local workers sometimes lose their jobs as foreign owners bring in new managers or automated systems. Profits often leave the country instead of being reinvested locally. Many see this as the country losing control of its own destiny. Public discontent is rising as people realize they have little say in these big deals, yet face the consequences daily through rising costs and fewer public services. Instead of national growth and empowerment, there is a growing feeling of helplessness and anger.
In these conditions, conspiracy theories and so-called “cult economy” narratives find fertile ground. People suspect that a small group benefits while most of the population pays the price. Public trust in leaders, and in the future of Ethiopia’s economy, is at its lowest point in years.
International Relations and Regional Tensions
Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations and Renewed Border Fears
Ethiopia-Eritrea relations have always been complex, with the border issue lying at the heart of the tension. After years of hostility and bloody conflict, there was initial hope when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afewerki signed a peace agreement in 2018. This deal reopened borders and promised a new era of cooperation.
However, renewed border fears have surfaced since the outbreak of the Tigray conflict in 2020. Eritrean troops entered Tigray to support Ethiopian forces, raising alarm both inside Ethiopia and internationally. Many people in Tigray view the Eritrean military presence as an occupation, and human rights groups have documented serious abuses involving both Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers.
Border villages face constant uncertainty. Displacement and violence remain widespread, and some analysts warn that old animosities have returned. Instead of solid peace, the current situation resembles a tense and fragile truce. Ethiopia-Eritrea relations are therefore a source of instability, not just for both countries, but for the wider Horn of Africa as well.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Disputes with Egypt
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is Africa’s largest hydroelectric project and a source of immense pride in Ethiopia. Construction of the dam on the Blue Nile, however, has set off one of the region’s most heated disputes. Egypt and Sudan are worried about the dam’s impact on the Nile’s water flow.
Egypt, which relies on the Nile for almost all its water, sees the GERD as an existential threat. Egyptian leaders demand binding agreements on water sharing, while Ethiopia insists on its right to develop and manage its resources. Tense negotiations have dragged on for years without lasting results. Both countries have at times used threatening language. There are real fears that regional tensions could spiral into open conflict if no solution is found.
For Ethiopia, the dam means electricity, development, and national pride. For Egypt and Sudan, it means anxiety and uncertainty over water access. The dispute over the GERD shows how crucial natural resources are for regional security and how easily diplomatic talks can falter when national survival is at stake.
The Somaliland Agreement and Horn of Africa Geopolitics
The recent Somaliland Agreement has further complicated the Horn of Africa’s already tangled geopolitics. In early 2024, Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, giving it access to the Red Sea in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland’s independence. This move angered not just Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, but also worried other neighbors.
Regional powers such as Egypt, Eritrea, and the Gulf states have all taken sides or tried to mediate. The deal could revive old rivalries and even provoke new conflicts. For Ethiopia, an outlet to the sea is vital since losing direct access after Eritrea’s independence in 1993. For Somaliland, international recognition is the ultimate prize. For most players in the Horn, every new alliance or agreement is tied to a wider contest for influence.
With fragile borders, ethnic tensions, and external meddling, the Horn of Africa remains at risk. The Somaliland Agreement is just the latest example of how regional deals can carry both hope and danger for Ethiopia’s future and for peace in the entire region.
Who Is to Blame? Comparative Leadership Analysis
Mengistu Haile Mariam’s Enduring Legacy
Mengistu Haile Mariam’s enduring legacy is often connected to a period of fear, violence, and mistrust in Ethiopia. Under Mengistu’s rule during the Derg regime, Ethiopia experienced some of the worst human rights abuses in its modern history. Many people recall Mengistu for launching the Red Terror, where tens of thousands were killed, and many more disappeared or fled the country. This left deep scars in Ethiopian society, making people cautious about politics and future leaders.
Mengistu also centralized power and used the military and secret police to crush opposition, shaping a political culture of repression and suspicion. This approach not only silenced the voices of ordinary citizens but also entrenched a system where any dissent was met with brutal force. Today, the culture of intolerance toward dissent and centralization of power is still felt in Ethiopian politics. Mengistu’s legacy still shapes conversations about authority, freedom, and justice.
Meles Zenawi’s Contribution to Ethnic Division
Meles Zenawi is often remembered both for his clever political strategies and for the ethnic federalism system he introduced. By dividing Ethiopia into ethnic-based regions, Meles said he wanted to empower various groups and solve past injustices. In reality, Meles Zenawi’s contribution to ethnic division is heavily debated. Ethnic federalism ended up deepening ethnic rivalries as politics became a zero-sum game between groups.
During his time, the ruling party, the EPRDF, enjoyed strict control, and ethnic identity became central to government jobs and power. Many now blame Meles for planting the seeds of today’s armed conflicts and local violence. While he brought stability and development in some areas, the system he left behind has often made national unity harder to achieve. Ethiopia’s politics is still marked by deep suspicion and competition between regions.
Abiy Ahmed’s Role in the Current Crisis
Abiy Ahmed came to power with promises of reform, openness, and national unity. However, Abiy Ahmed’s role in the current crisis has quickly drawn global attention for the wrong reasons. Despite winning the Nobel Peace Prize for making peace with Eritrea, Abiy’s early hopes faded as conflict erupted.
Critics say Abiy failed to address Ethiopia’s deep-rooted ethnic problems. Instead, his attempts to recentralize power angered regional leaders and armed groups. Under Abiy, Ethiopia saw the outbreak of the Tigray war, violent clashes in other regions, and a breakdown in national dialogue. His handling of opposition parties, media, and dissenters has also been criticized, with many accusing his government of returning to authoritarian tactics. Today, much of the blame for current crises is pointed directly at Abiy’s choices and his inability to build a truly inclusive political system.
Cycles of Authoritarian Leadership and Missed Opportunities for Reform
Cycles of authoritarian leadership have become a troubling pattern in Ethiopia’s political history. Each major leader—Mengistu, Meles, and Abiy—promised reform at the start but drifted toward centralizing power and quashing opposition. Missed opportunities for reform have allowed old problems to remain and even get worse.
The hope for democracy, openness, and fair governance is often raised and then betrayed. People have witnessed censorship, intimidation, and violent suppression, regardless of who leads. These cycles create mistrust not only in leaders but also in the very idea of politics. Many Ethiopians now question whether true change is possible.
Overall, Ethiopia’s crises cannot be blamed on one person. Instead, the deep problems are the result of decades of failed leadership and policies that put power before people. True reform, as history shows, is never easy—and always at risk from those who choose control over compromise.
The Way Forward: Risks, Opportunities, and the Fight for Unity
Growing Youth Mobilization and Calls for Change
Growing youth mobilization is now one of the defining features of Ethiopia’s political landscape. Across cities and rural towns, young people have become a powerful force demanding an end to violence, ethnic division, and poverty. The majority of Ethiopia’s population is under 30, and this demographic is increasingly active on social media, in protests, and in grassroots initiatives. Youth organizations and student movements call for inclusive politics, more jobs, and a say in their country’s future.
Many young Ethiopians are frustrated by persistent corruption, unemployment, and broken promises from successive governments. These frustrations are fueling calls for genuine reform and unity, instead of ethnic-based politics. While there is hope in this new activism, there is also risk. If their demands are ignored or met with repression, anger and despair may push more youth toward extremism or even violence. But if given space and support, youth mobilization could become the driving engine for peace and national renewal.
The Role of Civil Society and International Pressure
The role of civil society remains crucial for Ethiopia’s path forward. Non-governmental organizations, religious groups, human rights defenders, and community associations often work quietly, but they are at the front line of building trust and fostering dialogue among divided communities. Civil society can document abuses, support victims, and propose alternatives to official policies which ignore grassroots concerns.
However, space for civil society has shrunk under recent crackdowns and emergency laws. Many activists face harassment, arrest, or travel bans. Despite this, international partners and human rights groups have increased their support. International pressure, such as from the United States, the European Union, and the African Union, has called for an end to war crimes and for dialogue among all stakeholders. Aid money and trade agreements have been used as leverage to push the government toward reforms. Still, pressure alone is not enough; support must empower local voices and solutions for long-lasting peace and development.
Prospects for Peace and Inclusive Governance
Prospects for peace in Ethiopia remain uncertain, but there are pathways forward. Many Ethiopians, regardless of ethnicity, yearn for an end to hostilities and a government which listens to all citizens. Inclusive governance is seen as the best hope: power-sharing at all levels, protection for minorities, and fair representation in the political system.
To achieve this, concrete steps are needed. Negotiations must include both government and armed opposition groups, as well as voices from youth, women, and civil society. A robust transitional justice process can help address grievances, but it must also be locally driven and avoid simply repeating old cycles of blame and revenge. Building a culture of tolerance, upholding rule of law, and investing in education and jobs are also critical.
Risk remains, as spoilers and hardliners from all sides could disrupt progress. Yet, the opportunity is there, if leaders and communities are willing to compromise and unite. In the end, Ethiopia’s future relies on turning its diversity into a source of strength rather than division. Peace and unity will not be easy, but with commitment and support from all sectors—including its energized youth—there is still hope for a better tomorrow.