By The Habesha News Desk | October 2025
Addis Ababa – In a development that has reignited fears of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa, the Ethiopian government has accused neighboring Eritrea of mobilizing for war. The accusation comes amid heightened tensions surrounding Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access and the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea region.
In a letter addressed to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos claimed that Eritrea is “actively preparing for war” and colluding with elements of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to destabilize Ethiopia. The letter alleges that Eritrea is providing logistical, financial, and strategic support to insurgent groups operating inside Ethiopia, particularly in the Amhara and Tigray regions. Addis Ababa characterized these actions as a direct threat to Ethiopia’s sovereignty and regional peace.
Eritrea swiftly denied the allegations, describing them as “provocative saber-rattling” and a deliberate attempt to mislead the international community. The Eritrean Ministry of Information dismissed the claims as “fabricated propaganda” designed to divert attention from Ethiopia’s internal crises and its controversial ambitions to secure a Red Sea port. According to Eritrean officials, Asmara has no interest in renewed hostilities and views Ethiopia’s accusations as a prelude to justifying future military aggression.
Relations between the two countries have deteriorated sharply over the past year. Once hailed as a model of reconciliation following the 2018 peace agreement, the Ethiopia-Eritrea relationship has soured as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pushes forward with plans to regain maritime access—a long-standing national objective since Eritrea’s independence in 1993 left Ethiopia landlocked. Abiy has repeatedly called access to the Red Sea an “existential issue,” insisting that Ethiopia’s economic survival depends on alternative trade routes beyond Djibouti.
Tensions spiked earlier this year after Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland to lease coastal land along the Gulf of Aden. The deal was fiercely condemned by Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, who viewed the move as a violation of international law and a destabilizing provocation. Although Ethiopia and Somalia later issued a joint communiqué in Ankara aimed at easing diplomatic strains, the episode deepened Eritrea’s suspicions of Addis Ababa’s regional intentions.
Beyond the Red Sea issue, Ethiopia’s internal instability has also contributed to the rising tension. Persistent conflicts in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray have weakened the central government’s control and created openings for external actors to exert influence. Many analysts believe that the accusations against Eritrea reflect both genuine security concerns and political maneuvering within Ethiopia’s complex power structure. The presence of multiple armed groups, combined with political fragmentation, has heightened fears that any border incident could spiral into a broader confrontation.
Observers warn that the stakes extend far beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea. A renewed conflict could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, disrupt maritime trade through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and exacerbate existing humanitarian crises. The Red Sea corridor remains one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes, and instability there could reverberate through global trade networks. International actors, including the United States, China, and Gulf nations, are closely monitoring developments, each with vested interests in maintaining security and influence in the region.
For now, both Addis Ababa and Asmara insist they do not seek war. Yet the rhetoric from both capitals has grown increasingly hostile, and military movements along the shared border have been reported by independent observers. Whether the two nations will step back from the brink or slide into another destructive confrontation remains uncertain.
The situation underscores how fragile peace in the Horn of Africa truly is. For Ethiopia, the pursuit of sea access has become a defining national narrative. For Eritrea, it is a question of sovereignty and survival. As both governments exchange accusations and denials, the region stands on edge—watching closely to see whether diplomacy or confrontation will define the next chapter of their uneasy coexistence.