Searching for clear facts on the Amhara conflict? You’re in the right place. This introduction explains who the Amhara Fano are, how clashes with federal forces grew after 2023, and what it means for Ethiopia. We’ll unpack key events in the Amhara Region, the role of the national army, and where Addis Ababa fits in, without the noise.
In this guide, you’ll quickly learn:
- Who the Amhara Fano are and how they’re organized
- The timeline of major battles and shifts
- Key players, including the government of Abiy Ahmed
- Humanitarian impacts and what to watch next
Note: Numbers and frontlines change fast; we focus on verified, up-to-date insights.
Let’s dive in and make sense of the story behind Amhara Fano.
Historical background of Amhara militias
The Amhara militias have deep historic roots in Ethiopia. The most famous early reference to “Fano” comes from the 1930s, when groups of volunteer fighters resisted the Italian occupation under Emperor Haile Selassie. Through the decades, local militias in the Amhara region have emerged at times of national crisis, often acting to defend their communities from foreign threats or internal unrest. These Fano were not just military, but also social groups, valued for their bravery and their strong identity as protectors of the Amhara people. In modern times, Fano became linked to local grievances and feelings that the central government was not protecting Amhara interests, especially in disputed or border areas. (Sources: Wikipedia, International Crisis Group, BBC, Wilson Center)
Trigger events: Federal disarmament policies and local grievances
Federal disarmament policies played a huge role in reigniting the Fano movement. In April 2023, the Ethiopian government announced plans to dissolve regional special forces, including the Amhara Special Force, and centralize all armed units under federal command. This move was deeply unpopular among many Amhara, who feared losing their self-defense capability against ethnic violence and border disputes, especially with Oromo and Tigray regions. The Fano, and many ordinary Amhara civilians, saw disarmament as an existential threat in an environment where local security concerns were not addressed by the state. Grievances also included feelings of marginalization, lack of protection, and unresolved historical claims over disputed territories. The disarmament effort and the perceived lack of protection led thousands to take up arms in defense of their land and identity. (Sources: Zehabesha, Lansinginstitute.org, ACLED, LSE Blogs, Ethiopanorama)
Timeline of Fano’s resurgence since 2023
The Fano resurgence began in April 2023 following the government’s controversial disarmament order. Within weeks, major cities in Amhara descended into violence as Fano militia clashed with federal forces. By the middle of 2023, the region was engulfed in open conflict, with Fano launching offensives across North Wollo, West Gojam, and even temporary control of regional capitals such as Bahir Dar and Debre Markos. Over the next two years (2023-2025), Fano attacks intensified, becoming more coordinated and spreading guerrilla tactics across the countryside. By late 2024, Fano had morphed from a loosely organized protest militia into a powerful insurgency, frequently disrupting federal operations in both urban and rural zones. The Ethiopian government responded with states of emergency and military crackdowns, but the Fano proved resilient, even launching fresh offensives as recently as mid-2025. (Sources: Wikipedia, ACLED, The New Humanitarian, CFR, The Conversation)
Leadership and organizational structure
Leadership and organization within Fano is unique and changing. Historically, Fano was known for its decentralization, with local commanders running semi-independent groups. Since the conflict escalated, greater attempts have been made at united leadership. As of 2025, several key figures became prominent: Eskinder Nega, Engineer Desalegn Siyasebe, Baye Kengaw, and Zemene Kassie, among others. In some areas, especially Gojjam, Wollo, Shewa, and Gondar, Fano groups formed a “Central Command” or “National Force” to improve coordination and strategy. Still, Fano’s bottom-up model means each major locality retains its own leadership and some autonomy. This flexible, decentralized system has been both a strength (making Fano hard to eliminate) and a weakness (because of occasional competition between factions). (Sources: Amhara America, Daily News Egypt Africa, Thenewhumanitarian.org, RiftValley.net, Wikipedia)
The Fano movement remains a dynamic and complex force, born of old traditions but shaped by today’s political challenges.
Estimated size and scale of Fano forces
The estimated size and scale of Fano forces in 2025 is a subject of intense debate and speculation. According to sources like Reuters and Borkena, the Fano militias are believed to number in the tens of thousands, though exact figures remain uncertain due to the decentralized and fluid nature of the group. Some reports mention that after major battles, the government claims to have killed hundreds of Fano members in a single clash, suggesting truly significant mobilization capacity. Additionally, local accounts and experts on sites like Zehabesha discuss how Fano groups have merged, potentially increasing the overall numbers and creating larger, regional fighting forces. While no official census exists, the general consensus is that the Fano army continues to draw thousands of new fighters each month, swelling the ranks and allowing for simultaneous operations across several zones in Amhara.
Recruitment strategies and sources
Recruitment strategies for Fano forces rely on a mix of community-based outreach, social media campaigns, and word-of-mouth appeals. The BBC and Genocide Watch highlight that Fano is especially adept at tapping into deep local grievances, particularly fears about federal disarmament and loss of regional autonomy. Recruitment also targets frustrated youth, many of whom are dissatisfied with economic prospects or feel a strong sense of ethnic solidarity. According to AP News, disillusioned former soldiers from the national army and even local police units often defect and join Fano, drawn by their skills and access to weapons. Reports from Borkena detail that all able-bodied men and even some women between ages 18 and 45 are eligible and often encouraged by local leaders to join, especially in areas hit by violence or forced displacement.
Weapons, logistics, and funding
Weapons, logistics, and funding are major pillars of the Fano movement’s endurance in 2025. According to Borkena and other local sources, there is no shortage of community fundraising, with diaspora donations playing a vital role. Local supporters within Ethiopia provide food, shelter, and medical supplies to fighters. Reports indicate that Fano combatants often seize weapons from captured government soldiers and police, and some experts claim that smuggling and black-market trades from neighboring regions supply additional arms. Logistics operations are supported by a local network of villagers and urban sympathizers who coordinate movements, provide intelligence, move wounded fighters, and help with resupply chains. Despite a lack of heavy artillery or air power, Fano’s adaptability allows it to sustain prolonged operations in mountainous and rural terrain.
Training and paramilitary organization
Training and paramilitary organization within Fano have become increasingly formalized. According to Zehabesha, some Fano recruits now undergo up to six months of intensive training before being deployed. This training blends guerrilla tactics, basic marksmanship, first aid, and navigation skills unique to the rugged Amhara highlands. Organizationally, Fano is described as a “loose coalition” rather than a single army, but recent efforts—like announced mergers—have brought more discipline and structure. New recruits are often grouped into local brigades, each led by commanders with battlefield experience, many of whom are ex-military. Alongside combat skills, Fano emphasizes ideological training, with sessions on Amhara nationalism and the defense of “ancestral land,” all of which motivates fighters and helps bind them together.
Transition from agricultural life to militarization
The transition from agricultural life to militarization is one of the most striking effects of the Fano mobilization. Traditionally, most Fano recruits were farmers, students, or day laborers. However, the rising insecurity and ongoing violence across the Amhara region have forced many rural communities to turn their focus from crops to conflict. According to The New Humanitarian and AP News, entire villages have stopped farming to support militia activities, with fields left untended as men (and sometimes women) train or fight. In areas hard-hit by violence, local councils even organize communal farming days for the few who remain, while the majority of able-bodied people prepare defenses or participate in Fano operations. This rapid and sometimes tragic transformation shows how conflict reshapes daily life, shifting whole communities from food production to self-defense, and further fueling the cycle of displacement and food insecurity across the region.
Overview of conflict zones and affected regions
The major flashpoints of the Amhara conflict with the Ethiopian government have spread widely across the Amhara region since 2023. Fano militias have launched offensives and operated in both northern and central Amhara, impacting cities and rural areas alike. Violent clashes have erupted around key cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Lalibela, Debre Tabor, Kombolcha, and Dessie (according to ACLED and Wikipedia). The North Wollo, South Wollo, North Shewa, and West Gojjam zones have seen frequent fighting. Some areas have even seen battles spill beyond Amhara borders, touching on regions such as Oromia and Tigray. By mid-2025, over seven million people in Amhara have been exposed to conflict and instability, disrupting daily life and services throughout the region.
Key urban and rural battlegrounds
Key battlegrounds in the Amhara conflict include major cities and surrounding rural districts. Bahir Dar, the regional capital, has faced repeated attacks, blockades, and even brief Fano control in several districts. Gondar, another historic city, has acted as both a Fano stronghold and a target for government counter-offensives. Smaller towns like Lalibela have been heavily contested, sometimes changing hands between Fano and government forces. Roadways between cities, such as the routes linking Bahir Dar, Debre Tabor, and Dessie, have turned into ambush zones and checkpoint standoffs. Many rural kebeles (wards) in North Wollo and South Wollo have become guerilla war zones, with villages evacuated and farmers pushed into displacement. The mixture of urban sieges and countryside skirmishes makes the conflict dynamic and unpredictable.
Areas under Fano control vs government control
The situation on the ground is extremely fragmented in 2025. Some towns and rural zones are under the control of Fano militias, who have set up their own checkpoints and local administrations. For example, parts of North and South Wollo, and sections of West Gojjam, have reported Fano authority, especially in areas where the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has withdrawn or regrouped. Government forces, meanwhile, maintain stronger hold on most regional capitals, major highways, and some garrison towns like Bahir Dar, Debre Markos, and Kombolcha. There are also areas that frequently shift between sides, sometimes within a few days, leading to a patchwork of contested territories and regular reports of civilian displacement and insecurity. According to sources like ACLED and Zehabesha, neither side has been able to secure a decisive, uninterrupted front line.
Notable battles and turning points (2023-2025)
From 2023 through 2025, the Amhara conflict has been marked by fierce battles and dramatic turns. A key turning point came in July 2023, when Fano groups launched a coordinated offensive and seized several towns, prompting the federal government to declare a state of emergency in August 2023. The battle for Bahir Dar in March 2024 drew global headlines as control of city districts switched hands multiple times in a single week. Winter 2023 to early 2024 saw over 270 pitched battles, according to ACLED, with Fano sometimes capturing and briefly holding urban centers before being pushed back by federal offensives. In March 2025, government forces claimed to have killed over 300 Fano fighters during a surge in violence (as reported in The Conversation). However, these government victories have often been followed by fresh insurgent activity in rural areas, showing the resilience and adaptability of Fano’s decentralized strategy. Notable battles in places like Lalibela, Kombolcha, and across North Shewa continue to shape the broader conflict, and no durable military breakthrough has emerged so far.
Federal military responses and major operations
Federal military responses to the Fano insurgency have been forceful and wide-reaching in 2025. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) continue to stage large-scale operations, launching offensives in places like Raya Kobo and major areas across the Amhara region. The government’s main goal is to suppress the growing Fano movement, which refuses to surrender or integrate into the formal army. Major operations have included coordinated ground attacks, cordon-and-search missions, and targeted strikes against suspected Fano strongholds. The conflict has at times consumed entire districts and resulted in urban warfare in key towns. Reports from sources like ACLED and AP News show regular clashes and a pattern of violence shifting between heavy battles and tense, fragile ceasefires in 2025.
State of Emergency and curfews
State of Emergency and curfews have become central tools for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government in managing the crisis. The government extended the state of emergency several times, imposing it especially in the Amhara region where Fano activity is strong. Troop deployments have gone hand-in-hand with strict curfew measures, limits on public gatherings, suspension of transport, and aggressive checkpoints on main roads. Curfews meant to curb insurgent movement have also restricted civilians, often leaving communities cut off from markets and basic services at night. According to Human Rights Watch and Reuters, these emergency measures have contributed to a heavy security presence, arbitrary arrests, and rising civilian frustration across affected areas.
Use of drone strikes and aerial bombardment
Use of drone strikes and aerial bombardment has changed the nature of the conflict. Since 2023, the Ethiopian military has regularly used drones to target Fano fighters, their supply routes, and even suspected hideouts close to civilian zones. Strikes in places like Gedeb and Duberete have resulted in mass casualties, with over 100 killed in a single attack in April 2025 according to open sources. European and regional reports—like those from ECFR, France24, and DW—cite an increase in precision attacks, but also rising complaints about accuracy and civilian deaths. As government forces rely more on drones, the number of strikes has grown, sometimes with devastating results in crowded towns and small villages. 🌩️
Civilian impact and displacement
Civilian impact and displacement are perhaps the most tragic results of this ongoing war. The UN, Human Rights Watch, and UNICEF all report hundreds of thousands of people driven from their homes in Amhara. Families flee both from Fano-government clashes and from the aftermath of airstrikes. Some towns, like Alamata in Tigray and parts of East Gojjam, have emptied, with fields, schools, and clinics left deserted. Many people describe a lack of food, medical care, and safe shelter. As of early 2025, at least 670,000 have been internally displaced, with some sources estimating over a million forced to move due to both violence and fear. Malnutrition, family separation, and lost livelihoods make this a true humanitarian crisis.
Human rights violations by all sides
Human rights violations by all sides in the Amhara conflict have reached alarming levels. Reports from Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the US State Department all point to war crimes, extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, and the targeting of civilians by both government forces and Fano militias. Government crackdowns involve mass arrests and reports of torture in detention. On the other side, Fano fighters have been accused of targeting people they consider aligned with the government, sometimes committing reprisal attacks. The environment of insecurity also allows crimes like forced displacement, destruction of property, and ethnic violence to go unpunished. Practically all major human rights organizations confirm that atrocities are widespread, with little hope for real justice as the conflict continues.
Amhara-Oromo relations and the “Oromuma” narrative
Amhara-Oromo relations have become more complex and tense since 2023, with both communities heavily affected by violence and mutual mistrust. The fighting between Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia has led to regular clashes and civilian suffering in both regions. Many Amhara perceive the government’s policies as favoring the Oromo, while Oromo nationalists accuse Amhara groups of seeking to restore a central, “imperial” order.
The “Oromuma” narrative has become a powerful, polarizing idea during this time. For some Oromo activists, “Oromuma” means celebrating Oromo identity, language, and political rights within the federal system. For many Amhara, however, it is viewed as a movement to dominate key positions in government and marginalize other groups. This difference in perspectives fuels deep suspicion and resentment on both sides, making constructive dialogue very difficult.
Tensions have further increased as both Amhara and Oromo communities feel threatened in mixed areas, with government security actions in one region often leading to retaliatory violence in the other. Despite occasional talks about reconciliation, cycles of blame and fear continue to drive the two populations apart.
Role of ethnic federalism in fueling tensions
Ethnic federalism in Ethiopia has played a central role in intensifying conflict. This system, created in the 1990s, divides the country into regions based mostly on ethno-linguistic identities. It was intended to give each group autonomy and protect minority rights. But in practice, ethnic federalism has made political competition more about identity than national unity.
Since 2023, ethnic boundaries have served to sharpen disputes over land, resources, and political power. Each region’s leadership tends to prioritize its own group’s interests. When federal power is seen as weak or biased, militias like Fano and the OLA fill the gap. People now expect their regions to defend them, not the national state. Competition between Amhara and Oromo elites over disputed areas—especially along the border regions—has led to violence and displacement.
At a deeper level, ethnic federalism has encouraged groups to harden their identities and become suspicious of each other. Critics say this fuels ongoing tension, short-term alliances, and suspicion rather than stability and sharing. Many ordinary Ethiopians, overwhelmed by endless conflict, now question whether ethnic federalism helps or hurts national peace.
Effects on other groups: Tigray, EZEMA, NaMA, Balderas
The fallout from the Amhara-Fano conflict and general instability affects far more than just the Amhara and Oromo groups. Tigrayans, for example, have seen thousands of people displaced into Amhara region after new clashes in disputed border towns like Alamata. Local violence and campaigns of revenge have made life difficult for Tigrayans, many of whom still face suspicion or hostility after the larger Tigray war.
Political parties like EZEMA and civic groups such as NaMA and Balderas have also faced big challenges. EZEMA, known for promoting unity and constitutional reform, has struggled to gain ground as ethnic politics dominate and space for dialogue shrinks. NaMA, the National Movement for Amhara, has tried to speak up for Amhara rights without completely backing Fano’s armed rebellion, but members report facing government pressure or even arrest. Balderas, a civic group originally focused on democratic reform and rights in Addis Ababa, has seen its leaders targeted by authorities, accused of siding with militancy or “incitement” when they question state violence.
This turmoil makes it nearly impossible for smaller ethnic groups or opposition voices to shape politics. Instead, threats, suspicion, and fear continue to dominate the wider Ethiopian landscape.
Changes in social and political life
Changes in social and political life across Ethiopia since 2023 have been dramatic and deeply unsettling. Everyday activities like going to school, farming, or even traveling between towns have become risky in some regions. In places affected by fighting, civilians face repeated displacement. Families are separated and communities are sometimes broken up for good.
Politically, the country is much more polarized. Accusations of “collaborating with the enemy” or being a “fifth column” against national unity have targeted both leaders and ordinary people. Large numbers of arrests, especially of those suspected of links to Fano or critical of the government, have created an atmosphere of fear.
Civil society and independent media face huge challenges, with crackdowns on demonstrations and far less freedom of speech. People are cautious about sharing opinions, sometimes even with neighbors, and self-censorship is common. While some groups hope for domestic or international dialogue efforts, the sense of division and mistrust has only deepened. The social and political fabric of Ethiopia has become increasingly strained, making hopes for peace something people talk about, but rarely expect in their day-to-day lives.
Shifting Alliances and Strategic Dilemmas
Tactical collaborations among Amhara, Tigray, Oromo groups
Tactical collaborations among Amhara, Tigray, and Oromo groups have become a defining feature of Ethiopia’s current conflict landscape. While these groups traditionally held deep distrust for each other, worsening crises since 2023 have forced unexpected partnerships. The Fano, TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), and various Oromo factions have sometimes coordinated attacks against government targets or shared intelligence on military operations. These collaborations are usually based on short-term interests, such as challenging the federal government’s control or resisting federal military campaigns. However, these alliances are often fragile, with underlying tensions never far from the surface.
Historical lessons from past alliances
Historical lessons from past alliances in Ethiopia show that opportunistic pacts seldom last. In the 1980s and 1990s, coalitions like the EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) united different ethnic and political groups to overthrow the Derg regime, only to fracture later due to competing interests and broken promises. Modern groups refer to this history as a cautionary tale. These alliances can bring temporary strength and quick victories, but they often collapse as soon as the common enemy weakens. Understanding these patterns helps explain both the hope and the skepticism that many Ethiopians feel about new political coalitions.
Risks of expedient partnerships and betrayal
Risks of expedient partnerships and betrayal are ever-present in Ethiopia’s shifting power struggles. When alliances are built on immediate needs rather than trust or shared long-term goals, betrayal can follow quickly. Fano fighters and their temporary allies may face ambushes from supposed friends, sudden changes in alliances, or critical support disappearing overnight. This cycle of distrust discourages meaningful negotiation or sustainable peace. Instead, each group remains cautious, often hedging bets and preparing for the moment when an ally might turn into a foe.
Calls for shared governance and accountability-first strategies
Calls for shared governance and accountability-first strategies are growing louder throughout the country. Many Ethiopians, exhausted by cycles of violence and broken promises, argue that only inclusive systems can bring lasting stability. Civil society organizations and some political leaders propose transitional governments or power-sharing arrangements as alternatives to zero-sum battles for control. Others stress that addressing past human rights abuses and corruption with clear accountability mechanisms must come first. For the Fano movement and their counterparts, the strategic dilemma remains: whether to risk working with old rivals for the promise of a durable peace, or continue with alliances of convenience that might end in more conflict. Only time will tell which path Ethiopia’s warring factions will ultimately take.
Arrests and repression in Addis Ababa and beyond
Arrests and repression have become a daily part of life for civilians in Addis Ababa and across the Amhara region since the Fano conflict escalated. According to organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, 2024 and 2025 saw waves of arbitrary detentions. Security forces targeted anyone suspected of supporting the Fano movement or simply being Amhara. Hundreds of members of the academic community, professionals, and ordinary citizens in major towns were detained with little or no due process. In Addis Ababa, the pressure is especially intense. Checkpoints, raids on homes, and mass detentions have created a climate of constant fear. Even after the official state of emergency ended, reports show that many people continued to be held or harassed. Public gatherings are discouraged, with peaceful protesters and government critics frequently arrested or silenced. Families often do not know where their loved ones are taken, and access to legal aid is very limited.
Displacement, health care, education disruptions
Displacement due to the conflict has affected hundreds of thousands across the Amhara region and beyond. According to UN agencies and NGOs like UNICEF and UNHCR, whole communities have been uprooted. Internally displaced people (IDPs) fill temporary shelters or live with relatives in safer areas, with many lacking reliable access to food and clean water. This widespread displacement has severely disrupted health care services. Many hospitals and clinics have shut down or operate only under limited conditions, often running out of supplies and staff due to insecurity. Patients with chronic diseases go without medication, and maternal and child health services are frequently interrupted.
Education is one of the hardest-hit sectors. In conflict-affected zones, the majority of schools have been closed for extended periods. According to reports from June 2025, Amhara’s children have lost months, even years, of learning. Teachers have fled or been detained, buildings are damaged or occupied by fighters, and parents are afraid to send their children into unsafe areas. For many young students, returning to school remains a distant hope.
Restrictions on freedom of movement
Restrictions on freedom of movement are a stark reality in both Amhara and parts of the capital. Ongoing military operations by the Ethiopian government against the Fano militia include curfews, roadblocks, and security checkpoints, which make travel between towns risky or impossible. According to U.S. State Department and Human Rights Watch reports, civilians face regular searches and questioning at checkpoints, and movement outside curfew hours can lead to arrest or worse. Farmers struggle to reach fields, traders cannot not move goods easily, and families are separated. Humanitarian organizations also face difficulties accessing remote or besieged areas, making it tough to deliver aid and services.
Humanitarian relief gaps
Humanitarian relief gaps are widening as the crisis drags on. Although some aid groups like UNICEF and UNHCR are on the ground, ongoing fighting, road closures, and bureaucratic hurdles make consistent delivery difficult. Major reports in 2025 highlighted that millions remain in need of food, shelter, and basic health care. Funding shortfalls are a serious problem, with the 2025 Global Humanitarian Overview listing a $2 billion requirement for Ethiopia, much of it focused on conflict areas like Amhara. Essential supplies, including medicines and nutrition for children, often do not reach those who need them most. As a result, malnutrition, preventable disease, and psychological trauma are growing, especially among children and displaced families. Many humanitarian agencies say their staff cannot move safely to hard-hit villages, and local communities are sometimes left to fend for themselves.
These combined effects show just how deeply daily life has been changed for civilians caught in the middle of the Fano conflict. The path to normalcy will be long and difficult unless the violence stops and real support arrives.
Role of diaspora and international advocacy
The diaspora has played a huge role in the Amhara Fano conflict since 2023. Amhara communities abroad, especially in the US and Europe, have mobilized resources, lobbied politicians, and spread awareness through social media and protests. Their advocacy has pressured international institutions to respond to the conflict and highlight human rights abuses on all sides. However, according to sources like Borkena and ZeHabesha, divisions exist within the diaspora, sometimes weakening their united voice. Through ongoing fundraising, humanitarian drives, and media campaigns, the diaspora has become a powerful force keeping the Amhara cause visible on the global stage.
International advocacy groups, such as Human Rights Watch and the International Crisis Group, have continued to report on atrocities and called for independent investigations. Their involvement has raised the stakes diplomatically for Ethiopia in forums like the UN and EU. In summary, both diaspora and international advocates are critical in shaping international policy and relief efforts for the Amhara region.
Foreign policy responses and humanitarian interventions
Foreign policy responses to the Fano conflict have been mixed and cautious in 2025. Western countries have regularly called for restraint, dialogue, and respect for human rights, but have hesitated to take direct action. Humanitarian response, mostly led by UN agencies and organizations like UNICEF, has struggled to keep up with the growing needs, due to insecurity and government restrictions on access in conflict-affected regions.
According to ReliefWeb and UN OCHA, hundreds of thousands have been displaced or cut off from aid due to fighting. Despite these challenges, international actors have provided emergency food, medical supplies, and education support wherever possible, but funding gaps remain. Foreign governments, while delivering humanitarian aid, have largely held back stronger interventions, wary of Ethiopia’s political sensitivities and the risk of worsening the crisis.
Comparisons to other ethnic conflicts worldwide
The Amhara Fano conflict is sadly not unique. Similar ethnic-based armed struggles can be seen in places like Myanmar’s Rakhine State, the Balkans in the 1990s, and even recent violence in South Sudan. As with these other conflicts, competition over territory, identity, and power is central, and outside interventions often face political and logistical difficulties. According to the Council on Foreign Relations and Public International Law and Policy Group, Ethiopia’s system of ethnic federalism—a bit like Bosnia’s post-war arrangement—has both empowered local identities and fueled new rivalries.
A major comparison is how local grievances, if not addressed peacefully, almost always spiral into larger crises, drawing in outsiders and causing lasting instability. The lesson from other global conflicts is that early, inclusive dialogue is crucial, and heavy-handed military solutions rarely bring true peace.
Implications for Ethiopia’s stability
The implications of the Fano conflict for Ethiopia’s stability are serious and far-reaching. Ongoing violence and humanitarian crises threaten to destabilize not just Amhara, but the whole country and even the Horn of Africa region. Displacement disrupts agriculture and local economies, while attacks close thousands of schools and clinics, according to Human Rights Watch and the Global Conflict Tracker.
International Crisis Group warns that if the conflict continues, it could encourage other regions to take up arms or spark even broader civil war. Ethiopia’s neighbors are watching closely, as unrest could spill across borders. The death toll is rising, and the spread of armed resistance risks dividing the country even further along ethnic lines.
Finally, if a sustainable, inclusive solution is not found, Ethiopia’s long-term unity and development will be at stake. Regions like Amhara demanding autonomy or justice might inspire similar movements elsewhere, making peace harder to achieve in the future. This is why many advocacy groups stress the urgent need for dialogue, compromise, and meaningful humanitarian access, before things spiral further out of control.
Future Scenarios and Outcomes
Potential paths to resolution or escalation
Potential paths to resolution or escalation for the Amhara Fano conflict in 2025 depend on many factors. The government’s military approach and the resilience of the Fano movement both play major roles. Dialogue between the federal government and Amhara leaders might help avoid more violence. Several observers suggest that outside mediation, for example from the African Union, could support peace efforts.
However, if the government continues heavy-handed tactics, such as mass arrests and drone strikes, the conflict could easily escalate. There is also a danger that new groups could be drawn into the fighting, especially if ethnic grievances are not addressed. The expansion of violence into neighboring regions would make the situation much worse and increase the risks for all Ethiopians.
Prospects for peace negotiations or further militarization
Prospects for peace negotiations in Ethiopia require trust, which is currently lacking. Both the Fano movement and the federal government have shown little willingness for compromise. Recent history shows that failed dialogue often leads to more militarization and division.
Still, there are opportunities for peace talks if both sides agree to basic conditions, like releasing political prisoners and ending collective punishments. International partners can help set up platforms for negotiation. If negotiations do not start soon, Fano may increase its military capacity. Local recruitment and the arming of regular civilians mean the conflict could become even more dangerous.
Recommendations for sustainable governance
Recommendations for sustainable governance in Ethiopia focus on inclusivity, accountability, and decentralization. It is important to reform the federal system so that all ethnic groups feel represented and respected. This may mean adjusting the ethnic boundaries or changing administrative structures.
Transparency from both government and armed movements is essential to rebuild trust. Independent investigations into human rights abuses are needed, and those responsible must be held accountable. Social support for displaced people and the rebuilding of affected areas must also be a priority.
Long-term peace requires dialogue, not violence. Supporting local councils and traditional leaders can help communities resolve disputes peacefully. Empowering civil society and women’s groups also brings new voices into the conversation. If Ethiopia’s leaders focus on negotiation and fair governance, lasting peace is possible.
Historical background of Amhara militias
The history of Amhara militias stretches back many decades and is deeply rooted in the region’s identity. The term “Fano” itself holds a special place, going as far back as the 1930s, when volunteer fighters from the Amhara community joined the struggle against Italy’s occupation of Ethiopia. Since that period, the idea of community-based militias defending their land, culture, and interests has endured. In more recent years, Amhara militias like Fano rose to greater prominence during the Tigray War (2020–2022), as they fought alongside national forces and played crucial roles in defending Amhara interests, especially in disputed border regions. These groups have long felt responsible for protecting their people, and their histories are woven into every major conflict that has touched the region. The modern Fano, particularly, has evolved from a protest movement into an organized force, claiming to defend the Amhara population from threats both inside and outside the region.
Trigger events: Federal disarmament policies and local grievances
The main triggers for the Fano movement’s resurgence can be traced to the federal government’s disarmament policy, launched in early 2023. The Ethiopian government moved to dissolve regional special forces, including those in the Amhara region. This decision, intended to centralize security under federal control, sparked fear and anger among many Amharas, who viewed their local forces as essential protection. Many saw the disarmament as an attack on their autonomy and a direct threat to their security, especially given the frequent interethnic violence and disputes over territories. Grievances quickly spread, with locals expressing frustration over disputed lands remaining outside Amhara control, and the perceived inability or unwillingness of the federal government to address Amhara concerns. The tensions exploded into violence by mid-2023, when protests and clashes broke out, escalating into a full-scale conflict between Fano militias and government forces.
Timeline of Fano’s resurgence since 2023
Fano’s resurgence after 2023 followed a dramatic and violent series of events. In April 2023, the government’s attempt to dissolve Amhara special forces triggered protests and unrest. By August 2023, open fighting broke out in major Amhara cities and rural areas, such as Gondar, Debre Tabor, and Debre Markos. The Ethiopian government declared a state of emergency, lasting several months, but this did little to quell the violence. Fano groups gained control over large swathes of territory while federal and regional forces attempted repeated, but largely unsuccessful, offensives. Throughout 2024, the conflict widened and more Fano factions coordinated their actions, even seeking to unify under central leadership structures by mid-2025. Efforts at negotiation, ceasefires, and mediation failed, as both sides blamed each other for atrocities. By July 2025, the conflict was ongoing, with Fano still holding territory and the government struggling to reestablish full control.
Leadership and organizational structure
Fano’s leadership and organizational structure have evolved significantly since the start of the most recent uprising. Previously considered a loose collection of local militias, by mid-2025, reports confirm a substantial push for unity among Fano factions. The Amhara Fano National Force (AFNF) was established to create a central command, strategic leadership, and tactical coordination. The current structure now includes a General Assembly, Central Council, Executive Committee, and regional councils for each Fano faction. Prominent leaders, such as Eskinder, Mire Wedajo (for Wollo), and Asres Mare (for Gojjam), have gained public attention. Despite ongoing factional tensions, many Fano fighters and commanders now operate under a unified command, making the militia far more effective and coordinated than in previous years. This new hierarchy is supported by a strong sense of shared purpose: defending Amhara interests and resisting federal government policies perceived as unjust.