Abiy Ahmed: the OLF-TPLF combo best for the West

By implicating Amhara forces of war crimes they cannot possibly commit, the west reckons that it can shame and scare patriotic Amharas from joining, leading, or supporting these forces so that they will not be able to pose any meaningful threat to OLF and TPLF, and more importantly to Abiy Ahmed, the OLF-TPLF combo best for the west.  

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Ethiopia played not only crucial but also unique role in the decolonization of Africa.  As such, colonialists and neocolonialists of the west deeply resent her and have been sabotaging her peace and development ever since the victory of Adwa in 1896.  Realizing that the victory was achieved by marshalling the whole country under Ethiopian nationalism, European missionaries and consuls were dispatched to Ethiopia to erode this nationalism by depicting it as an Amhara nationalism for oppressing non-Amhara Ethiopians.

Chief among this European messengers of divide and rule was the Austrian consul Roman Prochazka who was expelled from Ethiopia in 1934 for activities “incompatible with his diplomatic office”.   He himself justified his own expulsion when, in the small book he published right after his expulsion and at the start of the second Italian invasion, he claimed “the numerous tribes who inhabit the Ethiopian state are being forcibly kept from European colonialism by Abyssinian rulers whose aim is to act as champions of all black people so as to attack and destroy Western culture” (Roman Prochazka, Abyssinia: The Powder Barrel, Vienna, 1935)

The second Italo-Ethiopian war (1935-1937) was partially successful for Mussolini, partly because prominent Tigre and Oromo nobilities (like Dejazmach Haile Selassie Gugsa of Tigre, and Jimma Aba Jiffar of Keffa) preferred to be colonized by Italy, just as Mr. Prochazka has claimed.  Obviously, Mr. Prochazka had ample information that the bad seeds he and his likes planted in Ethiopia were bearing fruits.

Ethiopia is so critical for black Africa for so many reasons that one can safely say black Africa goes as Ethiopia goes.  If Ethiopia is strong and prosperous, it will spur the whole black Africa to be strong and prosperous, posing a serious threat to neocolonialists of the west.  On the other hand, if Ethiopia is synonymous with war and famine, it will be a humiliation for blacks all over the world.

Obviously, western neocolonialists will do everything in their power to make sure that Ethiopia the shame rather than the pride of black Africa.  They will leave no stone unturned to keep Ethiopia extremely impoverished, chronically aid dependent, and always at war with itself, with no hope of coming out of a vicious circle of war and famine.

If the seat of the African Union (AU) is seen as hopeless, the entire continent can be easily depicted as hopeless.  Then, “The Economist”, that quintessential mouthpiece of English neocolonialists, could keep calling Africa “The Hopeless Continent”, if only to perpetuate the white supremacist myth that any undertaking by blacks is doomed for catastrophic failure, unless overseen by whites.

For instance, the west does not give much weight to Kenya because Kenya is much less significant to Africa than Ethiopia is.  Therefore, the west desperately wants Kenya to be peaceful and prosperous to an extent, so that it can easily be contrasted with warring and impoverished Ethiopia.  Put another way, the west wants Kenya to amplify Ethiopia’s pitiful situation so that neocolonialists will be able to proudly say “to see colonialism was good for Africa, take a quick glance at the only non-colonized country in Africa and its next door colonized neighbor”.

Speaking of colonialism in Africa, one of the key questions is the role of European style colonialism in Ghana’s regression as opposed to Japanese style colonialism in Korea’s exponential growth.  British colonialists would like to evade this crucial question by lauding the “advancement” of colonized Kenya in contrast to uncolonized Ethiopia.

This, then, is the principal reason why the west has been effectively using all means available to it to undermine Ethiopia’s effort for genuine peace and development.   Its objective has been and will always be to keep Ethiopia forever dependent on it.  It has been sabotaging Ethiopia’s peace and development so that Ethiopia will always be its “White man’s burden”.  It wants to be Ethiopia’s everlasting angle of subsistence aid, while at the same time making sure that Ethiopia will never, ever have the peace, unity, and stability necessary to stand on its own.

The most effective way to put Ethiopia permanently at the mercy of the west is by making sure it is permanently at war with itself.  This, in turn, is most easily done through Tigre and Oromo “liberation fronts” for whom “liberation” means making the non-tribalist, patriotic Amharas completely irrelevant in Ethiopian politics.

Amharas are by far the largest, if not the most ardent, adherents of Ethiopian nationalism.  It is this nationalism, epitomized by Emperor Menelik, which insured the very survival of Ethiopia by marshalling all of the country around it, enabled the country to crushingly defeat European colonialists at Adwa, paved the way for decolonization of the entire continent of Africa, initiated pan-Africanism, and laid the very foundation of black pride and black nationalism for blacks all over the world.

No wonder why Tigre and Oromo tribalists as well as their western backers often refer to the anti-colonialist, black nationalist Ethiopia as “Amhara Ethiopia”.  The fact is, most of the leaders and statesmen of this so called “Amhara Ethiopia” were partially, if not totally, non-Amhara, and that Amharas have always been, at least economically, the least beneficiaries of this “Amhara Ethiopia”.

Speaking of “Amhara Ethiopia”, the rallying cry of Oromo tribalists is “Ethiopia out of Oromia”.  This cry is also echoed by western statesmen, such as Mr. Herman Cohen who was the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs under George H. W. Bush (1989 – 1993).  Barely a day after Amhara region leaders were viciously murdered in Bahr Dar on June 22 (2019), Mr. Cohen twitted:  ”Failed coup in #Ethiopia’s Amhara state was an attempt by ethnic nationalists to restore Amhara hegemony over all of Ethiopia that existed for several centuries prior to 1991.  That dream is now permanently dead.” (Herman Cohen, Twitter, June 24, 2019).

Thus, according to the likes Mr. Cohen, the pre-1991 Ethiopia, which defeated European colonialists at Adwa in 1986, was an “Amhara Ethiopia”.  That is, until TPLF made it “Ethiopian’s Ethiopia” in 1991 by introducing an Anti-Amhara ethnic Apartheid system which divides Ethiopia into language-based ethnic regions.  Of course, one should not expect the likes of Mr. Cohen to prefer pre-1991 Ethiopia to post-1991 Ethiopia.  An Ethiopia weakened by tribalism and ruled by TPLF and/or OLF puppets is an easy pray for neocolonialists of the west.

For western governments, the best option to control Ethiopia through puppets is to have TPLF lead the country.  There are three main reasons for this.  The first and the most important reason is the fact that TPLF is entirely founded on baseless hatred of Amharas it prefers to call the haughty (Timkihitegnoch), perhaps because it is constantly reminded of its shameful submissiveness by patriotic Amharas.  Because TPLF’s hate is baseless, it is incurable.  Therefore, there is no hope of Amhara-Tigre unity while TPLF controls Tigrayans.

The second reason is the fact that TPLF represents a minority and, therefore, must completely rely on external help to rule Ethiopia.  No one in Ethiopia has the willingness to be as subservient to the west as the anti-Amhara elites from Tigray.  They have been doing it for so long throughout Ethiopian history that it seems to be in their genes, so to speak.  TPLF is the west’s vicious dog on a leash, ready to bite wherever, whenever, and whomever it is ordered to bite.

The third reason why TPLF is the darling of the west is because it is nothing but an ethnic based, disgustingly greedy mafia organization.  The west knows that whatever millions or billions it pours into TPLF’s bottomless coffers in the form of aid or assistance will mostly be laundered back to the west.

The next best option for westerners (to make Ethiopia an easily controllable weakling) is to impose OLF on the Ethiopian people.  The main reason for this is the fact that OLF’s hatred of Amhara is at least as vehement as that of TPLF.  With OLF at the helm, there is no chance in hell of Oromo-Amhara synergy, like the one which was key to the victory of Adwa.

For western governments, the first best option of using TPLF as a puppet is gone for good after the TPLF was chased out of power in 2018.  There is no way that TPLF will re-rule Ethiopia as a western puppet even if it reconquered Ethiopia militarily.  The TPLF itself knows this undeniable fact.  It has repeatedly confirmed it by officially saying so when it was closing on Addis Ababa and seemed to overrun the capital in matter days.

Therefore, western governments have no other choice but to cling to the second-best option – the OLF option.  Here is where Abiy Ahmed comes to the rescue.  Abiy Ahmed makes the OLF option even more attractive to the west than the TPLF option.

Abiy Ahmed is the undeclared chief of OLF who harbors deep hatred for Amharas and is tirelessly working (and achieving astounding results) to make Amharas irrelevant in Ethiopian politics.  He joined “Oromo freedom” fighters at an early age when he would hardly know what Oromo oppression means.  He grew up feeding on TPLF’s anti-Amhara narrative, and was trusted by TPLF so much so that he became head of the all-important INSA (Information Network Security Agency) with the rank of a colonel.

TPLF has been disparaging Ethiopia so much so that Amharas, who do not care about the ethnicity of an Ethiopian leader as long as the leader is a patriot, were eager for someone in position of power to say something good about the Ethiopia they love, even a as a lip service.  The shrewd Abiy Ahmed knew this Achilles’ hill of Amharas and exploited it to the fullest extent, so much so that Amharas regarded him as the messiah Ethiopia and Ethiopians have been longing for (for nearly three decades).  Won only by his pro-Ethiopia eloquence (without questioning his sincerity and, more importantly, without bothering about his past with TPLF), Amharas revered him even more than they revered Emperor Menelik, and wished him the proverbial thousand-year reign.  In the first few months of Abiy Ahmed’s tenure, his Amhara support was almost unanimous, whereas his Oromo opposition was very significant, mainly because Oromo tribalists (whose motto is “Ethiopia out of Oromia”) absolutely hate hearing anything positive about Ethiopia, even as an empty talk.

However, to their great dismay, Amharas soon realized that Abiy Ahmed is nothing but a masterful con artist.  It didn’t take them long to clearly see that Abiy Ahmed is an OLF wolf in Ethiopia’s clothing, that he has been faking his love for Ethiopia only to gain their (Amharas) complete trust and unwavering support (without which he wouldn’t be able to solidify his premiership), and that his lofty words about Ethiopia are mere covers for his wicked deeds against Ethiopia.  Abiy Ahmed not only continued the plight of Amhara under TPLF but also made it much worse.

Therefore, as far as westerner governments are concerned, Abiy Ahmed is the ideal TPLF-OLF combo.  He is their best possible tribalistic puppet who combines the anti-Amhara elements of both OLF and TPLF.  He has made huge inroads in making Amharas insignificant in Ethiopian politics.  He has put most patriotic Ethiopians out of action either by liquidation, incarceration, or deception.  He has incapacitated most patriotic political parties, civil organizations, and religious institutions by infesting them with tribalist OLF and TPLF agents.  In a span of just two years, he has added two more ethnic regions with a promise to create more at an accelerating rate until he gets to 80 and Ethiopia is completely ethnicized.   Then, Ethiopia will forever lead a precarious existence at the precipice of utter disintegration.  Its fate will be completely dependent on the whims of its western masters, just the neocolonialists have envisioned.

Therefore, Abiy Ahmed is well on the way to completely realize western colonialists dream of forever humiliating blacks by forever toying with pitiful Ethiopia.  As such, the west will do its best to prolong Abiy Ahmed’s reign for as much as possible so that he can continue to weaken Ethiopia through tribalism for as long as possible.  In particular, the west will do all it can to protect him from patriotic Amharas.   They have started doing so by falsely implicating patriotic Amhara forces and their leaders of war crimes supposedly committed in Tigray.

The fact is no Amhara region force forayed into even the small border towns of Tigray proper, let alone into the central towns of Tigray (Axum, Shire, Wukro …) where the supposed crimes are committed.  What Amhara region forces did was bring TPLF to a dead stop at Kirakir when it began to invade the Amhara region on its way to Addis Ababa, convinced that (after its one day “lightening operation” on November 3, 2020) the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has been degraded so much so that it exists only in name.

When Amhara forces completely reversed the dynamics of the war at Kirakir, the ENDF got sufficient time to regroup and then march all the way to capital of Tigray.   Therefore, if any atrocity was committed in Tigray by any Ethiopian side, it can only be committed by members of ENDF.  And if members of ENDF committed war crimes, the buck should stop at none other than the commander-in-chief of ENDF, Abiy Ahmed.  

Moreover, if the “unconfirmed reports” of atrocities committed on Tigrayans are confirmed to be true, the first and foremost suspect should be none other than TPLF itself.   After all, TPLF is well known for orchestrating the mass murder of Tigrayans and then blaming it on Amharas to gain as much Tigrayan and western support as possible, a case in point being the Hawzen massacre of June 22, 1988.

Yet, TPLF and OLF elites, and more importantly their western backers, conveniently forget the potential war criminal Abiy Ahmed, and are laser focused on Amhara forces who never set foot on the supposed war crime scenes.  Thus, the question is, why is the west fixated on war crimes supposedly committed by Amhara forces when it knows that, apart from hearsay and innuendo, it does not have convincing proofs that these crimes were committed, let alone Amhara forces committed them.  And the simple answer is, it is a bluff to shame and scare patriotic Amharas.  By implicating Amhara forces of war crimes they cannot possibly commit, the west reckons that it can shame and scare patriotic Amharas from joining or leading these forces so that they will not be able to pose any meaningful threat to OLF and TPLF, and more importantly to Abiy Ahmed, the OLF-TPLF combo best for the west.

Mesfin Arega

mesfin.arega@gmail.com