Abiy Ahmed Ethnic Politics and Warmongering: How Controversy Divides Ethiopia

While promoting economic liberalization and engaging in significant political reforms, his administration has faced growing criticism for alleged human rights violations and repression of the press. Many question his true motives amidst Ethiopia’s ongoing ethnic unrest and internal conflicts. Whether he stands as a modern reformist or a leader with authoritarian tendencies remains an ongoing debate. His leadership continues to be scrutinized as he grapples with maintaining national cohesion in a deeply divided society.

Early Life and Background

Abiy Ahmed was born on August 15, 1976, in the small town of Beshasha, located in Ethiopia’s Oromia Region. Abiy’s father, Ahmed Ali, was a Muslim Oromo, while his mother, Tezeta Wolde, was a Christian Amhara. This mixed religious and ethnic background became an important marker throughout his life and political career, giving him a unique understanding of Ethiopia’s diverse society. Growing up, Abiy experienced the daily realities of rural Ethiopian life. He is known for his early engagement with both Christian and Islamic traditions, shaping his outlook of tolerance and coexistence.

From a young age, Abiy was noticed as ambitious and curious. Many sources highlight that his childhood was marked by political change, as he came of age during the final days of the Derg regime, a violent Marxist-Leninist government. His early experiences included involvement in movements against the Derg dictatorship, hinting at the strong political resolve that would shape his future. Abiy also served as a radio operator in the struggle against Mengistu’s communist government, marking his first taste of national-level political and security work.

Political Beginnings: From Kero Youth to OPDO

Political beginnings for Abiy Ahmed were shaped by his involvement in local youth movements and the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO). During a time of protest and unrest, the Kero youth movement (a term for young, mostly unmarried Oromo men) rose in the Oromia region, challenging the structure of the Ethiopian state. While Abiy was not the direct leader of the Kero, he was associated with this wave of activism that called for more rights and greater representation for the Oromo people.

Abiy’s major step into formal politics came when he joined OPDO, one of the four founding parties of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. The OPDO represented Oromo interests within Ethiopia’s power structure, and Abiy’s participation signaled the rise of a new generation of Oromo leadership. Gradually, he became known for his reformist views and his ability to bridge divides within the party and the broader coalition.

Pathway to Leadership in the EPRDF

Pathway to leadership in the EPRDF began with Abiy Ahmed’s consistent rise through the ranks of the OPDO and, by extension, the ruling coalition. Abiy held several key governmental positions, from security sector reform to being Minister of Science and Technology. His security work, particularly leading the Information Network Security Agency (INSA), brought him significant recognition as a problem solver and a technocrat.

When Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned in 2018 after years of unrest and protests, Abiy Ahmed emerged as a consensus candidate. As the first ethnic Oromo to lead the ruling EPRDF coalition, Abiy represented both a generational and an ethnic shift in Ethiopia’s top leadership. His election to the premiership was seen as a breakthrough for many marginalized groups in Ethiopia and was welcomed by those hoping for change and inclusion.

Premiership Ascension and Promised Reforms

Premiership ascension happened quickly, with Abiy Ahmed becoming prime minister in April 2018. During his first days in office, Abiy promised widespread political reforms, reconciliation, and new opportunities for Ethiopia. He pledged to address ethnic divisions, release political prisoners, liberalize media restrictions, and democratize the political process. In his speeches, Abiy emphasized national unity, peace, and economic revival.

Abiy introduced bold reforms, including opening up government monopolies and making peace with regional rivals. His ability to deliver positive messages and his reputation as a modernizer sparked a wave of optimism both inside and outside Ethiopia. International observers and many Ethiopians saw his reforms and leadership style as a turning point in the nation’s political history, earning him popularity and, later, the Nobel Peace Prize. However, his promises created high expectations, and the months ahead would reveal whether these early ambitions could be sustained in Ethiopia’s complex reality.

Release of Political Prisoners and Media Liberalization

Release of political prisoners and media liberalization were some of Abiy Ahmed’s earliest and most dramatic actions after becoming Prime Minister in 2018. Ethiopians saw a wave of hope as the government suddenly released thousands of prisoners, including journalists, opposition leaders, and activists who had been detained for years under harsh emergency laws. This move was celebrated across the nation and internationally as a symbol of a new, more open chapter for Ethiopia.

Media liberalization followed quickly. Before Abiy’s arrival, Ethiopia was known as one of Africa’s worst countries for press freedom, with many newspapers shut down and journalists fleeing or facing jail. Under Abiy, blocked media outlets were unbanned, and exiled journalists were invited to return home and work freely. Social media, which had been frequently restricted, also became more accessible. For a time, Ethiopia’s new openness sparked energetic debate and offered space for both criticism and praise. This period was widely described by the public as the “new dawn” of Ethiopian democracy.

Cabinet Reshuffles: Gender Parity and Ministry of Peace

Cabinet reshuffles under Abiy Ahmed brought historic changes to Ethiopia’s government. Within months of taking office, Abiy appointed a new cabinet with half of the positions given to women. This was a first for Ethiopia and made it one of the few African nations with gender parity in its top leadership. Ethiopians and international observers praised this as a big step toward increasing the role of women in politics.

Alongside these changes, Abiy created the Ministry of Peace, a new institution meant to oversee security, policing, and efforts at national reconciliation. The ministry was led by Muferiat Kamil, a woman and former Speaker of Parliament, demonstrating a strong commitment to raising new types of leaders. Through these reforms, Abiy tried to present his government as progressive and in touch with both local needs and global trends for more inclusive leadership.

Peace Process with Eritrea and the Nobel Peace Prize

Peace process with Eritrea was perhaps Abiy Ahmed’s most historic move in his first year. The Ethio-Eritrean War had left the two countries divided and in a cold state of conflict for nearly two decades. In 2018, Abiy surprised everyone by reaching out to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, opening borders, restoring phone lines, and restarting flights.

Families separated by war were able to see each other again. The images of joyful reunions—some emotional enough to bring people to tears—went viral on social media across the Horn of Africa.

This dramatic shift brought Ethiopia and Eritrea global sympathy. As a result, in 2019, Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his “decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict.” The prize boosted Abiy’s reformist reputation and brought rare optimism to the region. However, while the peace process was widely applauded, some critics later noted that progress did not always meet expectations, and the enthusiasm faded as new challenges emerged at home and abroad.

Roots of Ethnic Federalism in Ethiopia

Roots of ethnic federalism in Ethiopia date back to the early 1990s. After the fall of the Derg regime in 1991, the new leaders created a political system based on ethnicity. The 1995 Ethiopian Constitution is the foundation of this approach, dividing the country into regions mainly along ethnic lines. The stated aim was to allow different groups self-rule, promote cultural rights, and stop the dominance of any single group, especially after the long rule by the Amhara-dominated empire and later the centralizing Derg. However, many analyses—such as those from the Wilson Center and academic think tanks—note that this system fueled division by institutionalizing ethnic identity in politics and administration. As a result, political competition and grievances became linked directly to ethnic boundaries and resources. Over time, Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism has been both credited for ending old imperial structures and blamed for starting new conflicts.

Breakdown of Expectations: From Unity to Division

Breakdown of expectations followed the introduction of ethnic federalism. Early hopes were high that the new system would solve historic inequalities and bring a sense of national unity built on respect. Instead, as documented by sources like Modern Diplomacy and BIC-RHR, ethnic-based conflict increased over time. Rather than feeling included, many people experienced deepening cleavages because ethnicity became the basis for both political power and regional autonomy. Disputes over land, resources, and representation deepened as regional leaders mobilized populations around ethnic narratives and grievances. Under Abiy Ahmed, attempts to foster national unity have clashed with embedded ethnic identities, sometimes making things worse. Today, ethnic violence and breakdown of trust regularly threaten stability, showing how the initial promises of mutual respect and shared government have given way to division and mistrust.

Marginalization and Grievances Among Amhara, Tigray, and Oromo

Marginalization and grievances among Amhara, Tigray, and Oromo have been central to Ethiopia’s political crisis. Each of these groups claims both historical grievances and present-day marginalization. The Amhara now say they are targeted by federal or regional policies, citing exclusion from political negotiations and violence against their people, as noted by Crisis Group and the Wilson Center. Tigrayans, once rulers within the EPRDF coalition, lost power after 2018 and faced blockade and violence during the Tigray war. Many believe they have suffered ethnic cleansing in areas like western Tigray. Oromo, the largest group in Ethiopia, say they face continued marginalization and uneven development, which has fueled repeated protests and the rise of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Studies from Carnegie Endowment and The New Humanitarian highlight that genuine grievances over political, economic, and cultural marginalization have pushed these communities into either open revolt or persistent resistance, feeding ongoing cycles of instability.

Land Disputes and Ethnic Violence in Wolkait and Raya

Land disputes and ethnic violence in Wolkait and Raya are some of the most heated issues in Ethiopia’s recent conflicts. The regions of Wolkait and Raya are claimed by both Amhara and Tigray, and their control shifted during the Tigray war. Sources like ACLED, The New Humanitarian, and Ethiopia Insight explain that the status of these territories has led to mass displacements, killings, and tit-for-tat violence. Ethnic federalism has deepened these disputes, as regional boundaries now represent not just administrative lines but questions of identity, history, and control of resources. With the collapse of previous power-sharing arrangements, armed groups and militias became active, and stories of forced removals, killings, and retaliation carried out to “protect” claimed lands became common. As long as the status of Wolkait and Raya remains unresolved, tensions between Amhara and Tigray will likely continue to fuel wider instability in Ethiopia.

Precursors to Civil War: Federal vs. Regional Tensions

The Tigray conflict’s roots are found in deep political and historical tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). After Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, the TPLF, which had dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades, lost national influence but retained strong power in the Tigray region. Disagreements grew over postponed national elections, changes to party structures, and the shifting of power away from regional authorities. The TPLF accused the central government of consolidating too much power, while federal authorities saw the TPLF as rebellious and unwilling to cooperate. These disputes, layered atop years of rivalry, eroded trust and set Ethiopia’s federal and regional leadership on a collision course.

Outbreak of Conflict in November 2020

In November 2020, tensions exploded into open war. The Ethiopian government accused Tigrayan forces of attacking federal military bases in the region. In response, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military offensive in Tigray, starting what would soon become one of Africa’s bloodiest conflicts in recent memory. Clashes rapidly spread, and violence escalated with Ethiopian federal forces, allied regional Amhara troops, and Eritrean soldiers moving into Tigray. Both sides blamed each other for sparking the fighting, but the true beginning was a culmination of long-standing hostilities and failed attempts at negotiation. The sudden eruption displaced hundreds of thousands within weeks.

Key Events and Turning Points in the Tigray War

Key events shaped the course of the Tigray conflict. Early on, federal and allied forces captured major towns, including the regional capital, Mekelle, claiming victory by the end of 2020. However, the Tigrayan forces, reorganizing as the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), soon launched effective guerrilla operations and regained lost ground by mid-2021, retaking Mekelle in June. Their advances even pushed into neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, threatening a march on Addis Ababa. This turning point prompted a nationwide mobilization and drew international concern. A ceasefire in March 2022 marked another major shift, leading to a slow and uneasy peace, though skirmishes and instability continued.

Eritrean and Amhara Involvement

Eritrean and Amhara involvement greatly influenced the conflict’s scale and intensity. Eritrean troops crossed into Tigray early in the war, fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF. Amhara regional militias also joined, seizing disputed territories such as Western Tigray. The presence of Eritrean forces complicated peace efforts and drew international condemnation, with reports that these troops committed grave abuses. Amhara militias, motivated by historic territorial claims and ethnic animosities, contributed their own set of abuses and fueled local rivalries. Both actors helped federal forces make early gains but also deepened the crisis and widened the humanitarian disaster.

Humanitarian Impact: Deaths, Displacements, and War Crimes Allegations

The humanitarian impact of the Tigray conflict is devastating. By some estimates, hundreds of thousands of people were killed through direct violence, starvation, and lack of medical care. Over 2 million people were displaced from their homes, many forced to cross borders into Sudan or live in precarious camps. War crimes have been reported by all parties, including massacres, sexual violence, and systematic starvation as a weapon of war. Entire towns were shelled, with evidence of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity—especially in Western Tigray. International aid agencies and human rights groups have called for accountability and urgent aid, as the region still suffers from hunger, insecurity, and trauma. The scars of the conflict remain fresh and continue to shape Ethiopia’s fragile peace and collective memory.

Consolidation of Power and Allegations of Deceit

Consolidation of power by Abiy Ahmed is a topic that has attracted much criticism since he became Ethiopia’s prime minister. Many observers accuse him of centralizing authority by removing rivals and weakening federalist structures. Reports from sources like Zehabesha and Borkena stress frequent use of deception, manipulation, and secrecy to outmaneuver political adversaries. Critics often point to how decisions are made behind closed doors and say that loyalists fill key government positions. Allegations of deceit include promises of reform that are not delivered and diversion tactics used to hide government failures. Numerous opinion pieces describe a pattern of misleading rhetoric and public volte-faces, making it difficult for the public to trust official statements. These claims, while widespread online, reflect deepening public frustration with what many perceive as a leadership style based on calculation and political gamesmanship rather than genuine democracy.

Political Purges and Suppression of Opposition

Political purges and opposition suppression have become more pronounced in recent years. During Abiy’s early months in office, he released thousands of political prisoners and welcomed exiled opposition members, as shown in coverage by the BBC, HRW, and Crisis Group. However, this openness faded quickly as government critics, journalists, and opposition leaders began to face harsher measures. According to Wikipedia and Reuters, new laws limiting press freedom have allowed officials to detain critics under broad national security charges. High-profile arrests and intimidation campaigns are reported, especially targeting groups who previously supported reform. International and local rights groups describe the climate for dissent as deteriorating, with arrests and detentions increasing in frequency, particularly during times of unrest or following controversial elections.

Arrests, Imprisonments, and Silencing Critics

Arrests, imprisonments, and silencing of critics are part of a broader crackdown under Abiy’s leadership. Reports from Reuters and congressional briefings highlight that dozens of opposition leaders—including Abiy’s key rivals—have been detained, with some released only after months or years. Civil society actors and journalists have also been arrested under vague anti-terrorism or security laws. This pattern, according to both HRW and the New York Times, has stifled open debate and created an atmosphere of fear among the opposition and activists. Many critics now self-censor or go underground due to risk of harassment or imprisonment. The rapid shift from opening political space to shutting it down has caused disappointment among Ethiopians hopeful for lasting democratic change.

Allegations of Education and Career Fabrication

Allegations of education and career fabrication swirl around Abiy Ahmed’s biography. Questions about his academic background and credentials have been raised on sites like Zehabesha and are discussed in various online forums. While official sources state that Abiy holds degrees in computer engineering, transformational leadership, and a PhD, these claims have by some been called into question due to perceived irregularities in his educational record and the speed with which he obtained his qualifications. Some critics suggest his academic journey was unconventional and not always transparent, especially when compared to what is expected for such high office. While no conclusive evidence has surfaced proving outright fabrication, ongoing suspicion persists due to gaps in the timeline and limited public documentation. This issue contributes to the wider mistrust in his leadership and government transparency.

The “Spy” Controversy: Fact vs. Fiction

The “spy” controversy around Abiy Ahmed is a mix of fact and fiction, stirring debate within and outside Ethiopia. Reports on Ethiopanorama claim that Abiy confessed in 2018 to spying for the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) while working with the Ethiopian intelligence agency. Critics highlight these statements as evidence of betrayal or potential double agency, while supporters either dispute the story or argue it is being exaggerated for political reasons. The controversy is discussed widely on forums and in news articles, often with conflicting details about Abiy’s actual role. No official investigation or conclusive evidence has been presented on this subject, leaving much of the discussion in the realm of rumor and political narrative. This uncertainty adds to broader doubts about Abiy’s past and loyalty, fueling divisions and conspiracy theories within Ethiopian society.

Media Censorship and Restrictions on Press Freedom

Media censorship under Abiy Ahmed has increased sharply after his first year in power. Initial reforms lifted bans on more than 250 media outlets and freed dozens of journalists from jail, offering hope for greater press freedom in Ethiopia. However, as conflicts and ethnic tensions rose, the government started to reverse these freedoms.

Media censorship became common, and many journalists were detained, sometimes on charges of terrorism. Authorities also forced some into exile. New media laws were introduced, officially to reform the sector, but these often supported government control rather than press freedom. The landscape is now marked by increasing government pressure and restrictions, resulting in self-censorship and less critical coverage. Reports from organizations like RSF and recent articles in The Guardian show that under Abiy, the hope for an open media environment was short-lived, replaced by fear and government repression. Many Ethiopians now say they feel threatened when expressing critical opinions online or in public.

Election Controversies and Boycotts

Election controversies have surrounded every Ethiopian vote since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. The 2021 national elections, in particular, generated much criticism. In many areas, especially war-affected regions like Tigray, the vote did not take place at all, leaving millions without representation. The opposition accused the government of creating an unfair environment, leading many prominent parties to boycott the election.

International observers and major news organizations, including BBC and NPR, reported that the elections did not meet democratic standards. They highlighted that opposition parties faced repression, and local conflicts made free campaigning impossible. The ruling Prosperity Party, led by Abiy Ahmed, claimed a sweeping victory. Critics said this was less a sign of genuine support and more the result of limited competition and intimidation of opposition figures. These election controversies have weakened perceptions of democracy in Ethiopia and fueled further mistrust between the government and various communities.

Constitutional Reform Efforts and Power Extension

Constitutional reform and power extension have been central features of Abiy Ahmed’s rule in recent years. When trouble and COVID-19 delayed elections in 2020, Ethiopia’s parliament approved a measure allowing Abiy Ahmed to stay in power beyond his legal term. This move was highly controversial since the constitution only allows extensions for six months, but the parliament supported much longer delays.

There has been regular talk of changing the constitution itself, with ruling party officials suggesting reforms that would strengthen central control. Many see these constitutional reform efforts as attempts by Abiy Ahmed’s government to patch up political crises and create legal cover for holding onto power. Reports by Al Jazeera and Ethiopia Insight highlight how these moves have brought accusations of creeping authoritarianism. Some report that changes are made without real public debate or the involvement of regions, increasing the fear of centralized one-man rule. As a result, the legitimacy of the government’s time in power and its reform agenda remain hotly contested within Ethiopia and abroad.

Rise of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)

The rise of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has become a defining feature of Ethiopia’s contemporary conflict landscape. The OLA, historically linked to the Oromo Liberation Front, is now an armed opposition group active mainly in the Oromia region. After the 2018 peace agreement with the federal government broke down, many former OLF members re-armed and merged with local militias to form the OLA. Since then, OLA insurgency has intensified. By 2024, the OLA expanded its activities, carrying out deadly attacks and clashing regularly with federal forces. The OLA’s stated goal is self-determination for the Oromo people and resistance against state repression.

However, recent reports also show internal strife within the OLA itself, with different factions emerging, some leaders defecting or entering government-run “rehabilitation centers.” Despite this, the OLA remains a potent force, continuously adapting and using local support and grievances around land, identity, and government abuses to bolster its ranks.

Amhara Resistance and Civilian Militias

Amhara resistance and the emergence of powerful civilian militias, most notably the Fano, have thrown the region into ongoing chaos. After the Ethiopian government sought to dissolve regional forces and integrate them with the national military in 2023, the Amhara militias rejected the order. Clashes erupted between the Fano and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), leading to sustained violence through 2024. Fano fighters, motivated by a mix of regional autonomy, ethnic pride, and deep-seated grievances over land and security, have controlled significant territories during their offensives.

The government’s response has included a state of emergency, mass arrests of opposition figures, and harsh crackdowns. Ethno-nationalist narratives have intensified, while the violence has exposed over seven million people in Amhara to political violence. This ongoing resistance is not isolated local unrest; it is now a challenge to the central state’s authority, complicating peace efforts and deepening the humanitarian crisis.

Fragmentation Within the TPLF

Fragmentation within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has severely impacted the Tigray region’s political stability since the Pretoria peace agreement. Once the dominant ruling group in Tigray and Ethiopia at large, the TPLF now faces deep internal splits. As of late 2024 and mid-2025, reports confirm rival factions inside the TPLF, competing for control over the regional government and military arms.

Leadership rifts, conflicting visions for Tigray’s future, and debates over the peace process with the Abiy administration have worsened these divisions. Some analysts see the possibility that a single faction may eventually assert dominance, but others fear further fragmentation could spark renewed hostilities. Daily governance in Tigray is already suffering, and the once-mighty TPLF’s fractured nature has raised the risk of new cycles of violence, local rivalries, and internal coups.

Impact on Ethiopia’s Social Fabric

The impact of prolonged armed resistance and unrest on Ethiopia’s social fabric has been profound. Years of civil strife have resulted in the breakdown of trust between communities, widespread displacement, and the destruction of local economies and infrastructure. Social relations, especially among youth, have become more fragile as regional identities trump the idea of national unity. The violence has increased the risk of within-household strife, while collective trauma has undermined the traditional role of elders and institutions in mediating disputes.

Civilians, particularly women and children, face heightened vulnerability. Reports of massacres, arbitrary arrests, and ethnic cleansing circulate regularly. Online propaganda and the spread of hate speech have deepened divisions, making reconciliation even more difficult. In regions like Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, cultural heritage sites have been destroyed, and the mass exodus of people has left towns and villages depopulated or changed forever. The ongoing armed resistance, therefore, is not just causing immediate suffering but is also fraying the very threads that once held Ethiopian society together.

Societal and Humanitarian Crisis

Mass Starvation, Migration, and Displacement

Mass starvation in Ethiopia has become a major crisis since the outbreak of conflict in Tigray and other regions. Reports from international organizations and independent media describe food shortages driven by war, blockade, and the destruction of farms and infrastructure. Many aid agencies highlight that millions are at risk of famine, especially in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar. This has led to a sharp rise in emergency food aid needs.

Migration and displacement are closely linked to these food crises. According to UN agencies, millions of Ethiopians have been driven from their homes due to violence and hunger. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) often end up living in temporary shelters with poor access to food, water, and basic services. Many have fled to neighboring countries or tried to seek refuge in Europe and the Middle East. Displacement has not only affected families but has also split up communities and put children at greater risk of malnutrition and disease.

Gender-Based Violence and Atrocities Reports

Gender-based violence became widespread during Ethiopia’s recent conflicts. Especially in areas like Tigray and Amhara, there have been numerous reports of sexual violence used as a weapon of war. International watchdogs and humanitarian organizations have documented cases where women and girls suffered rape, abduction, and sexual slavery at the hands of armed forces and militias.

Atrocities reports detail not only gender-based violence but also mass killings, arbitrary detentions, and torture. This violence has long-term effects, causing trauma and harming entire communities. Survivors often struggle to access medical care and support due to stigma and ongoing insecurity. Calls for justice and accountability from both local and international actors have so far brought limited results, with most perpetrators enjoying impunity.

Ongoing Repression and Targeting of Civilians

Ongoing repression continues to define daily life for many Ethiopians. Human rights groups note that civilians are frequently targeted through arbitrary arrest, abusive military operations, and political crackdowns. Both government and allied regional forces have reportedly carried out extrajudicial killings, house raids, and forced disappearances, especially in conflict-affected areas.

This climate of fear extends to activists, journalists, and anyone thought to be aligned with opposition groups. Reports indicate that security services raid villages, silence protesters, and intimidate grieving families. For ordinary people caught between warring sides, the threat of violence and repression has become a daily struggle. As Ethiopia’s crisis deepens, challenges to civilian safety and human rights demand urgent attention from both national and international leaders.

Inflation, Unemployment, and Market Reforms

Ethiopia’s economy has faced hard times in recent years. Inflation soared to over 35% in late 2022 because of rising food and fuel prices, and it became one of the highest in Africa. By the end of 2024, government stabilization efforts helped bring inflation down to about 17%, with further declines expected to around 10% in 2025/26. High inflation has sharply reduced purchasing power for ordinary Ethiopians. Basic goods became harder to afford and poverty increased in both cities and rural areas.

Unemployment remains a tough challenge. Ethiopia’s labor market struggles with 8% official unemployment, but youth joblessness is much higher, and informal employment rates are close to 70%. Many young people cannot find stable work after finishing school. The situation forced the government to pursue job creation through big infrastructure projects, often funded by China.

In response to the ongoing economic crisis, the government rolled out a series of vigorous market reforms in 2024. They shifted to more market-based exchange rates, tightened monetary policy with high interest rates (around 15%), and reduced public spending. These reforms also included efforts to cut government borrowing, modernize the banking system, and attract foreign investment. Ethiopia also secured a $3.4 billion loan from the IMF to support these reforms, but hard choices have meant less public support for the poorest—a source of social tension.

Maritime Ambitions: The Somaliland Memorandum

Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions made global headlines in January 2024 when the government signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. For Ethiopia, which is landlocked, gaining a direct sea route is a strategic and economic dream. The MoU allows Ethiopia access to the Port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden and promises possible naval presence, in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s quest for statehood.

The deal immediately sparked controversy. Somalia rejected the MoU, calling it a violation of its sovereignty, while some African leaders warned it could set a dangerous precedent in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia claimed the agreement was crucial for its growing economy, especially as its population swells and export routes become more vital.

The maritime push is also about national pride and economic survival. Ethiopia’s leaders argue that direct sea access would lower import and export costs and boost competitiveness. However, critics warned that the move could destabilize the region and sour relations with Djibouti, Ethiopia’s current main trade gateway.

Regional Tensions with Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt

Regional tensions have surged since Ethiopia’s maritime deal and shifting alliances. In October 2024, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia held a historic summit to formalize an alliance against Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. All three countries are uneasy about Addis Ababa’s growing influence and its new agreement with Somaliland.

Eritrea and Ethiopia have drifted apart after their brief post-2018 friendship. Border disputes and lingering distrust, especially after the Tigray conflict, raised fears of new clashes. Violent incidents along the border and harsh official rhetoric fuel worries of another conflict.

With Somalia, relations took a nosedive over the Somaliland port deal. Somali officials accused Ethiopia of undermining Somali unity. Talks between the two countries, including Turkish mediation, failed to calm the dispute, with both sides refusing to back down.

Egypt remains at odds with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Cairo fears for its water supply, while Addis Ababa sees the dam as essential for energy and growth. The anti-Ethiopian alliance of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia is meant to counter what they view as Ethiopia’s expansionism—making the Horn of Africa more volatile than ever.

International Response and Erosion of Foreign Support

The international response to Ethiopia’s crisis has cooled in the last year. Many donors are wary because of ongoing conflict, human rights abuses, and government restrictions on aid. In 2024, the UN called for $3.2 billion to help Ethiopians facing hunger, displacement, and disease—but funding pledges have lagged behind high needs.

Humanitarian partners, like the UN and IOM, have scaled back direct assistance after accusing authorities of blocking access and interfering with relief work. In key reports, the UN-led aid effort was described as a “systemic failure,” with bureaucratic hurdles and government obstruction preventing effective response.

Recent budget cuts from major donors, including the US and EU, have made things even harder for vulnerable Ethiopians. Foreign investment has also dropped as companies wait for more political and economic stability. This erosion of foreign support has left Ethiopia with fewer resources to address hunger, health crises, and help for millions of displaced people. The loss of international trust is now one of the biggest challenges for Ethiopia’s government as it tries to rebuild the economy and reassure global partners.

Divided Legacies: Nobel Laureate vs. War Leader

Abiy Ahmed’s legacy in Ethiopia is deeply divided. At first, Abiy gained international recognition, even winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with Eritrea and promising wide-reaching reforms. But soon after, conflict erupted in Tigray, and Ethiopia plunged into civil war. News sources like The Guardian and the BBC highlight how quickly his reputation shifted—from being called a great unifier and reformer to being blamed for terrible violence and war. Today, Abiy is seen by some as a peacemaker, but by others as a war leader responsible for massive suffering.

Many Ethiopians and foreign observers now ask: Was Abiy Ahmed a bringer of hope, or the cause of deeper division and conflict? According to analysis from Africa News Channel, his role is not simple. He is both praised as a liberator and criticized as an ambivalent figure at a crossroads. The war in the north, continued unrest in Oromia and Amhara, and serious human rights abuses all shape this legacy. For many, Abiy will always be remembered for both his peaceful promises and the brutal war that came after.

National Dialogue and Prospects for Peace

National dialogue is now a hot topic in Ethiopia. Recent reports show that Ethiopia’s government has launched a national dialogue process aiming to address deep divisions, promote consensus, and set a peaceful path forward. The National Dialogue Commission, formed with 11 commissioners, wants to bring together different groups and find common ground.

But there are still big challenges. Analysis from think tanks like Heinrich Böll Stiftung and SWP warns that the dialogue faces high expectations, criticism, and limits. Many say the process must be truly inclusive from the start, bringing in all important stakeholders—especially those with real grievances. Others are worried the dialogue could turn into a tool for government-led elites and not actually solve deeper conflicts. Still, it offers some hope that, if handled right, it could reduce violence and promote Ethiopia’s unity.

Risks of Renewed Regional Conflict

Ethiopia’s risk of another major regional conflict remains high in 2024 and 2025. According to reports from the International Crisis Group and Human Rights Watch, tensions between government forces, ethnic militias, and regional actors have not faded. The Amhara region still faces deadly clashes, while Tigrayan political rivalries threaten attempts at reintegrating Tigray into Ethiopia’s federal structure.

The situation is fragile. New fighting, especially in Tigray, could easily pull in neighboring Eritrea or even cause fighting across regions. Emerging groups like the Fano militia in Amhara, ongoing insurgency in Oromia, and the presence of many armed actors mean peace is never guaranteed. With so many unresolved grievances and shifting alliances, the chance for renewed war is never far away.

The Humanitarian Path Forward

The humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia remains severe. According to UN and IOM assessments, more than 20 million Ethiopians require aid in 2024, with millions displaced by war, drought, and famine. The 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan asks for over $3 billion, but aid efforts are struggling due to insecurity and lack of funding.

The path forward must focus on reaching the most vulnerable. This includes helping those displaced return home or integrate into new communities, addressing food insecurity, and supporting survivors of violence and trauma. Reports from ACAPS and relief agencies stress the need for sustained international engagement, better access for aid groups, and long-term solutions to Ethiopia’s overlapping crises. Only by making humanitarian needs a real priority can Ethiopia hope to heal and rebuild social trust.

In summary, Ethiopia’s long-term future hangs on how its leaders, people, and partners respond to Abiy Ahmed’s divided legacy, the need for meaningful dialogue, the ever-present risks of conflict, and the urgent humanitarian needs of its people.

The Challenge of National Unity Amidst Ethnic Division

The challenge of national unity amidst ethnic division remains one of Ethiopia’s greatest trials. Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism system was designed to give different communities a sense of inclusion, but instead, it has sometimes deepened the lines between groups. Under Abiy Ahmed, these divisions have grown even sharper because promises of unity could not overcome older grievances. Ethnic tensions between Amhara, Oromo, Tigray, and other groups have led to conflict, mistrust, and, in some regions, open violence.

National unity in Ethiopia now requires not just new laws or government statements, but trust-building among communities. Many people are asking Google and social media whether the Ethiopian government can ever truly represent all ethnicities equally. It is clear that, without honest conversations and power-sharing, the goal of one united Ethiopia remains very hard to reach.

Abiy Ahmed’s Contradictory Legacy

Abiy Ahmed’s contradictory legacy will be debated for years. At first, he was celebrated internationally as a peacemaker when he signed a peace deal with Eritrea and began freeing political prisoners. He received the Nobel Peace Prize, and many Ethiopians felt real hope for change. However, as time passed, Abiy’s rule grew more controversial and divisive. His government faced outbreaks of violence, a brutal civil war in Tigray, and frequent accusations of authoritarian behavior.

Some credit Abiy for his early reforms and attempts to heal the country, but others see him as someone who made big promises and then failed to deliver. For many, his time in power is marked by both big dreams and deep disappointments.

Steps Toward Stabilization and Reconciliation

Steps toward stabilization and reconciliation are urgently needed in Ethiopia. The first step is to promote national dialogue that includes all ethnic groups, regions, and political voices. The government must listen to grievances from all sides, not just those in power. Creating fair laws, ensuring justice for war crimes, and supporting local peace efforts can help communities heal.

Another important step is to build trust showing that promises of reform are real and not just words. Allowing free media, supporting civil society, and protecting everyone’s rights can start to rebuild hope. International support may help, but ultimately, Ethiopians must find a way forward together. Only through honest dialogue, power-sharing, and a commitment to justice can Ethiopia move away from conflict and closer to lasting peace.