August 16, 2025
Abiy Ahmed’s domestic and international image quickly transformed after his first year in office. Inside Ethiopia, he was hailed as a reformer. Citizens admired his promises about democracy, his push for more freedom of speech, and his efforts to balance power between the country’s many ethnic groups. For a while, hope was in the air. On the international stage, Abiy was seen as a modern African leader, someone who could inspire peace and progress in a troubled region.
However, as time passed, some voices inside Ethiopia and abroad started to express concern. They wondered if Abiy could keep his promises in a country full of historic tensions and political rivalries. Journalists and human rights groups began watching closely, looking for signs of real change or possible backsliding. Yet, during these early years, Abiy remained, in many eyes, a symbol of hope and possibility for Ethiopia’s future.
Initial Reforms: Political Freedoms and Gender Equality
Abiy Ahmed’s early days as Ethiopia’s prime minister were marked by hope and excitement. He announced bold political reforms, including the release of thousands of political prisoners and the legalization of previously banned opposition parties. By opening up the political space, Abiy gained the trust of the Ethiopian people and the international community. These political freedoms, which had been missing for decades, signaled a new era for Ethiopia.
Alongside increased freedoms, gender equality became a central theme. Abiy appointed women to half of the cabinet positions and supported the election of Ethiopia’s first female president. These actions were celebrated around the world as a historic step toward a more equal society. Ethiopia experienced a “gender revolution,” with more women taking leadership roles than ever before. International observers praised these changes, believing Ethiopia was on the path to real democracy.
However, while these initial reforms cured some old problems and brought new energy, the reality soon became more complex and troubling.
The Shift to Authoritarianism
The excitement created by Abiy Ahmed’s reforms began to fade as the government’s leadership style changed. Reports describe a gradual return to authoritarianism. Critics say Abiy’s government started to use government power to silence opposition and centralize authority. Instead of creating a genuine democratic system, Abiy’s rule slowly shifted toward what experts call “electoral authoritarianism”.
Personal power became the defining feature of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Major decisions started coming directly from his office, and institutions that were meant to offer checks and balances grew weaker. This move to centralized and personal rule is sometimes called the “big man” approach, common in some African countries. Former supporters and outside analysts noted that Ethiopia had slipped back toward its authoritarian past, even though the leader still used the language of reform and unity.
Many people who joined in the early hopes of change became disillusioned. The government’s focus on stability, unity, and security started to overshadow its promises for freedom and openness.
Suppression of Opposition and Media
Suppression of opposition increased quickly after the first few years of reform. Many opposition leaders, activists, and journalists were arrested, harassed, or forced to flee the country. Laws once revised to increase free speech began to be used again to jail critics.
The media, which once enjoyed a short burst of freedom, now operates under a climate of fear. Journalists were detained, independent news sites blocked, and prominent critics targeted. Human Rights Watch and other observers highlighted the return of media bans and crackdowns on dissenting voices. Social media and the internet were sometimes restricted, especially during sensitive periods.
Abiy Ahmed’s government also labeled opposition groups as threats to peace or enemies of the state. This suppression made it almost impossible for real political competition and debate. These actions were not only about limiting speech, but controlling the country’s political life itself. Under Abiy, the promise of democracy was overshadowed by growing repression, making many Ethiopians and observers worry that the “new era” was over almost as quickly as it began.
Ethnic Tensions and Civil Unrest
Ethnic tensions and civil unrest have long created instability in Ethiopia. Before the Tigray War, many regions in the country experienced violence between ethnic groups, often resulting in loss of life and destruction of property. Ethiopia’s unique system of ethnic federalism, in which regions are mostly divided along ethnic lines, was meant to give groups more self-governance. Sadly, it often brought power struggles and competition over resources.
Ethnic riots and pogroms in areas such as Shashamane led to the destruction of dozens of buildings and the deaths of many people. Political elites were accused of manipulating ethnic identities for their gain, which made the unrest worse. As protests and anti-government demonstrations spread, the central government became more concerned about keeping control, which only increased suspicion and tension between different communities.
The years leading up to the Tigray conflict were marked by demands for greater regional autonomy and representation. Groups who felt marginalized by federal policies demanded more say in local governance. Disagreements about federal and regional responsibilities led to rising anger and, eventually, violence.
The Role of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was central to Ethiopia’s growing crisis. For nearly three decades, the TPLF was the dominant force in the coalition that ruled Ethiopia. Many people in other regions saw the TPLF as overly powerful and blamed them for exclusion and repression under their rule.
When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed began removing the TPLF from federal power, tensions grew quickly. The TPLF fell back to its stronghold in Tigray, where they resisted new appointments to regional offices and accused the federal government of undermining their rights. The relationship between the TPLF and the federal government became highly confrontational. The TPLF’s refusal to accept federal decisions, including over the timing and legitimacy of elections, became a direct challenge to the authority of Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The TPLF’s historical influence also meant they still had substantial resources, experienced leadership, and loyal armed forces in Tigray. As a result, the TPLF was ready to defend its autonomy, even against the central government, which set the stage for direct confrontation.
Trigger Events Leading to the Tigray Conflict
Trigger events rapidly accelerated the country toward war. One of the most important was the decision by Tigray’s leaders to hold regional elections in September 2020, defying the federal government’s delay of nationwide elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, the federal government declared these elections illegal and began to cut funding to the Tigray region, making relations even worse.
The immediate escalation came in early November 2020. The TPLF was accused of attacking the federal military’s Northern Command bases in Tigray, which the federal government called an unprovoked act of war. This incident led Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to order a full-scale military operation in Tigray, launching the devastating conflict.
Other contributing triggers included a struggle over political reforms, a growing disconnect between the TPLF and federal leadership, and both sides’ attempts to control state resources and security forces. Mistrust, long-standing grievances, and a breakdown in communication made negotiation almost impossible, and open war became the outcome.
These events combined with years of ethnic tension and political rivalry to make the Tigray conflict one of the most severe humanitarian crises of recent decades in Africa.
Outbreak of Violence (2020)
The Tigray War began suddenly in early November 2020. Tigray regional forces, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), clashed with the Ethiopian federal government after months of rising tensions. The immediate trigger was an attack by Tigrayan forces on the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s Northern Command bases stationed across Tigray on November 3, 2020. In response, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a military offensive in Tigray, claiming it was a law enforcement operation. This quickly escalated into full-scale war.
Outbreak of violence in Tigray resulted in rapid displacement of civilians. Within days, thousands of people became refugees, fleeing to Sudan and other parts of Ethiopia. Fierce fighting occurred around Tigray’s regional capital, Mekelle, and surrounding towns. By mid-November, the United Nations and international observers began to warn about the risk of war crimes and the impact on innocent civilians.
Major Military Campaigns and Shifting Alliances
Major military campaigns defined the early months of the Tigray War. The Ethiopian federal military, together with allied Amhara regional forces, advanced swiftly through Tigray. Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, was captured by federal forces at the end of November 2020 after intense shelling. This marked a major early victory for Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Shifting alliances played a critical role as the conflict continued. Amhara militias seized control of western and southern Tigray, areas disputed between Amhara and Tigray regions. Meanwhile, the TPLF regrouped in the countryside and adopted guerrilla tactics, launching surprise attacks and ambushes. By mid-2021, the Tigrayan forces recaptured Mekelle, forcing a withdrawal of federal troops and surprising many international observers. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) then launched counteroffensives into neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, pushing the war far beyond Tigray’s borders.
Involvement of Eritrean Troops
The involvement of Eritrean troops became evident early in the fighting, though both Ethiopia and Eritrea initially denied this. Multiple reports and direct evidence confirmed that Eritrean soldiers entered Tigray from the north, fighting alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the Tigrayan forces. By late 2020, eyewitnesses described Eritrean troops operating in several parts of Tigray, accused of committing massacres, looting, and other abuses.
Eritrean involvement deepened fears of regional instability. Their forces played a crucial role in some of the bloodiest campaigns, especially in towns near the Eritrean border. Human rights organizations raised concerns about atrocities, including those carried out by Eritrean troops. This foreign intervention made the conflict far more complicated and devastating for Tigray’s people. International calls for Eritrean withdrawal grew, but reports continued to document their presence well into 2021.
Eritrean involvement, the shifting alliances, and the fast spread of violence all made the Tigray War far more destructive and unpredictable than anyone initially expected.
Allegations of War Crimes and Human Rights Violations
Accusations Against Federal and Allied Forces
Accusations against Ethiopia’s federal and allied forces are widespread and deeply concerning. Many international organizations, including the United Nations and Human Rights Watch, have accused these forces of committing war crimes in Tigray. Reports claim government soldiers, along with allied forces from Eritrea and regional militias, carried out mass killings, arbitrary detentions, and torture. Eyewitnesses and survivors recount stories of people being executed in the streets and homes being burned. There are also serious allegations of looting, destruction of medical facilities, and blocking of humanitarian aid. These actions have created fear and chaos among civilians, making daily life extremely dangerous.
Accusations Against Tigrayan Forces
Accusations against Tigrayan forces are also significant. Human rights groups report that Tigrayan fighters have committed atrocities, including killing civilians and attacking villages outside Tigray. There have been claims of lootings and kidnappings as Tigrayan forces advanced into the Amhara and Afar regions. Some witnesses described deliberate attacks on refugee camps, schools, and health posts. Just like their opponents, Tigrayan forces have been blamed for indiscriminate shelling and using heavy weapons in populated areas, putting innocent lives at risk. Both sides accuse each other of targeting civilians, which has made it very hard for people to feel safe.
Extrajudicial Killings and Civilian Atrocities
Extrajudicial killings and civilian atrocities have become alarmingly common during the conflict. Both federal troops and rebels have been accused of targeted killings against people believed to support the other side. International reporters and watchdogs have published stories of mass graves, corpses left in the streets, and entire families being wiped out. Sometimes, killings have been described as revenge attacks or for supposed collaboration. In many villages, survivors tell of sudden violence, with gunmen opening fire on unarmed people. These actions have spread terror, forcing thousands to flee or hide in remote areas for safety.
Sexual and Gender-Based Violence
Sexual and gender-based violence has been a shocking feature of the war. Numerous reports describe systematic rape and sexual torture by fighters from all sides, but especially federal, Eritrean, and some Amhara militia forces. Survivors, including young girls and elderly women, recount horrifying acts, often carried out in front of families or entire communities to break their spirits. Some aid groups suspect sexual violence has been used as a weapon of war to humiliate, punish, or control entire populations. Access to medical care has been limited, making it difficult for victims to receive treatment or justice. The psychological toll on survivors is immense, and the effects will likely last for generations.
Use of Starvation and Blockades as Tactics
Use of starvation and blockades as tactics has caused a major humanitarian crisis in Tigray and nearby regions. Aid agencies and the UN have repeatedly warned that food has been used as a weapon during this conflict. Federal and allied forces have been accused of blocking food, water, and medical supplies to areas under Tigrayan control. Entire communities have been cut off, with children and elderly people facing famine conditions. Some reports say that Tigrayan forces have also blocked aid to certain areas as a military tactic. These blockades have led to widespread hunger, malnutrition, and preventable deaths. International actors have called for immediate and unhindered humanitarian access, but challenges remain due to ongoing fighting and distrust between sides.
Humanitarian Impact and Crisis
Displacement and Refugee Flows
The humanitarian impact of the Tigray conflict is deeply troubling. Displacement and refugee flows have become a constant reality for millions of Ethiopians. According to reports from international agencies, more than 2 million people have been internally displaced within Ethiopia, especially in the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions. Families have been forced to abandon their homes, sometimes with only the clothes on their backs. Many have sought refuge in neighboring countries, including Sudan, resulting in crowded and unsanitary camps.
Displaced people often face dangerous journeys and arrive traumatized, exhausted, and in urgent need of food, water, and medical care. There have been heartbreaking scenes of mothers separated from their children and elderly people left behind due to the chaos. Refugee flows are placing huge strain on host communities, making basic services even more difficult to access.
Famine and Access to Aid
Famine and access to aid are at the center of the humanitarian crisis in the region. The conflict has devastated farmlands, blocked roads, and interrupted markets, making it almost impossible for people to obtain food. The United Nations and other groups have warned that parts of Tigray have experienced conditions close to famine. Crop destruction and livestock deaths have left many families without any source of income or nourishment.
Access to humanitarian aid has often been blocked by military checkpoints, bureaucratic restrictions, or security concerns. Aid convoys have been attacked or delayed for weeks. Many families have reported surviving on just one meal a day, usually made of wild leaves or roots. Children and the elderly are especially vulnerable to malnutrition and starvation.
Health and Social Consequences
The health and social consequences of the conflict are severe and long-lasting. With healthcare facilities damaged or destroyed, and shortages of everything from basic medicine to surgical supplies, both chronic and urgent health needs have gone unmet. Hospitals are often overwhelmed or under constant threat, forcing doctors to perform surgeries without anesthesia or run dialysis machines without enough electricity.
Mental health is also a growing concern. Displacement, trauma from violence, and the loss of loved ones have caused widespread anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder among survivors. Social structures have been deeply damaged, with children missing out on schooling and whole communities torn apart.
International Red Cross and Humanitarian Reports
International Red Cross and humanitarian reports have played a vital role in documenting the suffering and shining a light on the crisis. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and various United Nations agencies have repeatedly described “catastrophic” humanitarian conditions in Tigray. Their assessments speak of millions at risk of starvation, rampant diseases like cholera and malaria, and desperate needs for shelter and safe water.
These organizations have called for immediate and unhindered access for humanitarian aid across conflict zones. Their reports have pushed the world to pay attention, even as fighting and political challenges continue to limit the effective delivery of life-saving relief. The data and testimonies they collect remain some of the few reliable sources about what is truly happening on the ground.
The humanitarian impact and crisis in Ethiopia remain a pressing global concern. Continued awareness and action are crucial to prevent further suffering and to help rebuild hope for millions caught in the conflict.
United Nations and Human Rights Watch Findings
United Nations and Human Rights Watch findings on the Tigray war have shown a deeply concerning situation. Both organizations have documented ongoing human rights violations by all sides in the conflict. According to the latest Human Rights Watch reports, government security forces, local militias, and non-state armed groups committed systematic abuses, including targeted killings, mass displacement, and attacks on civilians. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights recently called for urgent action, warning that atrocities, such as sexual violence and deprivation of aid, were still happening even after peace agreements. The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect reported that populations in the Tigray region continue to endure war crimes and crimes against humanity. Despite peace talks, the human rights situation in Ethiopia remains fragile, with violations documented throughout 2023 and 2024.
Responses from the US, EU, and African Union
Responses from the US, EU, and African Union have varied in tone and action. The US government was vocal in its criticism, repeatedly condemning atrocities and placing pressure on the Ethiopian government to allow humanitarian access. Sanctions were introduced and some aid was withheld to push for a ceasefire and to protect human rights.
The European Union also suspended major funding to Ethiopia and made the release of that funding dependent on Ethiopia’s commitment to cease hostilities and permit humanitarian aid into affected areas. In late 2023, the EU announced a partial return of aid, but only after it saw some improvement in the situation.
The African Union’s response has been widely viewed as muted. AU officials avoided direct criticisms of the Ethiopian government and chose to focus on quiet, private diplomacy. Many analysts believe this lack of strong action reflected strategic considerations, given Ethiopia’s key role in the AU. The AU did host mediation talks, but its reluctance to openly condemn abuses has frustrated many in civil society and among international observers.
Challenges in International Fact-Finding
Challenges in international fact-finding in Ethiopia have made uncovering truth about the conflict very difficult. Access to conflict zones is heavily restricted by Ethiopian authorities, and independent investigators often face intimidation or threats. The ongoing presence of armed groups, continued fighting, and a general lack of security prevent experts from safely conducting interviews or collecting evidence. Both the United Nations and Human Rights Watch struggled to get accurate, up-to-date information, leading to reliance on remote sources and survivor testimonies.
Authoritarian government control over the media and public messaging further complicates matters. There are strong restrictions on local journalists, which means foreign organizations have to operate with limited local insights. Transitional justice and accountability efforts are often delayed or manipulated for political aims. As a result, important facts about war crimes and atrocities can remain hidden for months or never come to light at all.
Sanctions and Diplomatic Pressure
Sanctions and diplomatic pressure have been a mainstay of the international response. The United States established targeted sanctions against individuals and groups deemed responsible for prolonging the war or committing abuses. These sanctions included asset freezes and visa restrictions. US pressure was also directed at regional actors, particularly Eritrea, due to its involvement in the conflict.
The European Union threatened sanctions but often relied on withholding financial support and using diplomatic channels to try and influence Ethiopian behavior. While the EU stopped short of direct sanctions on the government, it made clear that future support would depend on meaningful improvements in human rights and access for aid organizations.
Diplomatic pressure has not been applied equally around the world. Some countries like China and Russia have continued to support or do business with Ethiopia’s government, softening the impact of Western measures. Despite these efforts, human rights groups and observers say that sanctions and diplomatic measures have so far only had a limited effect in forcing lasting change or ensuring accountability for the abuses in Tigray.
Loss of International Recognition and Awards
Loss of international recognition and awards has become a major concern for Abiy Ahmed since the Tigray war began. Not long after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, articles from the BBC, CNN, and The Guardian described Abiy’s fall from being celebrated as a reformer to being widely criticized for the handling of the conflict. Several sources, including Martin Plaut and others, reported that Abiy Ahmed was quietly stripped of some international peace prizes. His global image as a peacemaker changed rapidly as reports of violence and conflict spread. What started as strong praise from the international community quickly became condemnation, with world leaders and institutions expressing disappointment and concern. Abiy, who was once invited to global platforms and honored at major events, now faces exclusion and increasing calls for accountability following reports of human rights violations in Tigray.
Debate Over the Nobel Peace Prize
Debate over the Nobel Peace Prize given to Abiy Ahmed has continued to spark strong feelings around the world. After the Tigray war erupted, news outlets such as NPR, The New Yorker, The Africa Report, and others began questioning whether Abiy should keep this prestigious honor. There have been multiple petitions and public calls, including from the Somali diaspora and voices in the media, to revoke his Nobel Prize. However, the Nobel Committee itself has only issued rare criticisms, not formally taking steps to remove the award. Fact-checkers clarified that while rumors have circulated about revocation, the committee’s official position does not allow for the retroactive withdrawal of a Nobel Peace Prize. Critics say that Abiy’s actions in the Tigray conflict stand in stark opposition to the spirit of the award, pointing to alleged war crimes and humanitarian concerns. Supporters of revocation argue that keeping the award undermines the value of the Nobel Peace Prize, while some worry that such a precedent could create political controversies for other prizes in future.
Abiy Ahmed’s Public Response and Rhetoric
Abiy Ahmed’s public response and rhetoric during the Tigray conflict have drawn intense scrutiny both inside and outside Ethiopia. Media sources like CNN and BBC noted that Abiy often used strong, combative language, describing Tigray forces with terms like “weeds” or “cancer,” which many saw as dehumanizing and inflammatory. His government regularly insisted that the campaign in Tigray was a “law enforcement operation,” rejecting both domestic and international criticism. Statements released by the Prime Minister’s office frequently denied civilian targeting and painted the conflict as necessary to maintain national unity. Analysts at World Peace Foundation and other media organizations raised alarms that this rhetoric contributed to ethnic polarization and possibly increased violence against Tigrayans. Abiy also regularly dismissed calls for international mediation, telling foreign governments to stay out of Ethiopia’s internal affairs. His tone became more defensive as evidence of atrocities and humanitarian crisis began to emerge, leading to accusations that he was prioritizing military victory over peace or dialogue.
Media Portrayal and Global Opinion
Media portrayal and global opinion of Abiy Ahmed have shifted dramatically since the outbreak of the Tigray war. According to reports from Al Jazeera, Reuters, and scientific journals, Abiy was initially praised for ending censorship and welcoming a freer press in Ethiopia. However, as fighting intensified, so did state control of information, with journalists arrested and media houses facing new restrictions. Global news coverage focused on the rapid decline of press freedom and the rise of propaganda and disinformation. International analysis, including by the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders, found that the media environment became extremely hostile, with independent reporting on the Tigray war almost impossible. Articles noted that international opinion shifted from seeing Abiy as a peace-builder to viewing him with skepticism and even suspicion. Many media narratives now highlight Ethiopia’s humanitarian crisis and the government’s repression, portraying Abiy as a controversial and divisive figure rather than a herald of reform and peace.
Ceasefires and Peace Agreements (e.g., Pretoria Agreement)
Ceasefires and peace agreements in Ethiopia, such as the Pretoria Agreement, were seen as big steps towards ending years of violent conflict between the government and the TPLF. Signed in November 2022, the agreement promised a permanent cessation of hostilities. Both parties agreed to lay down arms, restore services in Tigray, and open humanitarian corridors. International actors, including the African Union and IGAD, helped broker this deal. However, while the ceasefire reduced some large-scale fighting, many observers have expressed concern regarding the implementation. There have been disputes about disarmament, withdrawal of foreign troops (especially Eritrean forces), and transitional justice, often slowing real progress. Notably, even today, the TPLF and the Ethiopian government both claim to remain committed to the agreement, but actual progress on many points remains uneven.
Continued Violence and Implementation Challenges
Continued violence and implementation challenges threaten Ethiopia’s already fragile peace. Despite the official ceasefire, multiple reports from 2023 to 2024 describe outbreaks of violence, especially in regions like Amhara and Oromia. Some of the violence comes from local militias, border disputes, and clashes involving the Fano militia and government troops. Human rights organizations have reported ongoing killings of civilians, forced displacement, and ethnic cleansing, along with sexual violence and other abuses. Even in Tigray, there have been battles and attacks targeting civilians. Major obstacles include difficulties disarming combatants, integrating ex-combatants into civilian life, and handling deep mistrust among different ethnic communities. Movement of humanitarian aid has also been regularly disrupted, causing further frustration among local populations. These issues highlight just how tough it is to turn a peace agreement on paper into stability on the ground.
Calls for Prosecution and International Justice Mechanisms
Calls for prosecution and international justice mechanisms have become louder since the atrocities of the Tigray War came to light. Numerous reports from the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and others have documented crimes that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Both sides — federal forces and their allies, as well as Tigrayan fighters — face serious allegations. There is a push for justice and accountability through transitional justice within Ethiopia, including proposals for truth-seeking and national investigations. Yet, many activists and legal experts argue that only international mechanisms, such as independent courts or UN-backed inquiries, can ensure accountability, because confidence in Ethiopia’s own systems remains very low. There is also talk about the International Criminal Court (ICC) or hybrid tribunals stepping in, if Ethiopia proves unwilling or unable to prosecute serious abuses. Victims and civil society continue to demand justice, fair trials, and reparations.
The Future of Ethiopia’s Stability and Governance
The future of Ethiopia’s stability and governance remains uncertain and deeply concerning. The scars of war run deep, with ongoing clashes and unresolved tensions threatening any hope of long-term peace. Ethnic rivalries, political divisions, resource disputes, and simmering mistrust all contribute to a delicate situation. Internal power struggles, particularly within Tigray’s own leadership, risk undermining reintegration efforts. Many experts warn that without true transitional justice, inclusive dialogue, and real security reform, the cycle of conflict could repeat itself. Challenges to governance are enormous, as violence and instability disrupt essential state functions. Hopes for a stable and unified Ethiopia depend on building trust across communities, addressing root causes of violence, and making justice a reality for victims on all sides. With attacks, civilian abuse, and humanitarian hardship still reported well into 2024 and 2025, achieving real reconciliation and lasting peace will require extraordinary commitment from Ethiopian leaders, communities, and the international community.