Yonas Biru, PhD
For nearly half a century, Oromo and Tigray tribal intellectuals have been and continue to be the curse of Ethiopia. Over the last six years, Amhara tribal intellectuals have taken a leap of faith and veered into the abyss of tribal insularity, thereby cursing the nation and in the meantime allowing the nation’s curse to be their due.
My focus in this article will be on Jawar as an Oromo tribalist. Those who are interested in reading about Tigray and Amhara tribalists may read my articles “Daniel Berhane’s Book ‘War on Tigray’ Manifests the Curse of a Depraved Intellectual” and “Intellectual Extremism and Bullying: The Cancer that Ills Amhara Politics”
Jawar Mohammed’s past shows a study in contradiction. One minute he was a demagogue inciting tribal conflict and bloodletting. The next minute he was a peacemaker in the genre of Mahatma Gandhi. Balancing the dual role of a stealth conflict peddler and a heralded peacemaker was his modus operandi to make himself an indispensable political power.
Before returning to Ethiopia, the Qerro movement that he helped build and led was peaceful. His followers’ signature protest signs were a white handkerchief, and crossed arms raised above their heads – a sign Feyisa Lilesa globalized at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic games. The peaceful movement was a stroke of genius, intended to bring down the Ethiopian government led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Once he returned to Ethiopia, he started using the Qerro movement as his powerbase. His aim was to disrupt the nation’s political order in a bid to appraise his political currency, as he transitioned himself from a protest leader to a power contender in the political hierarchy. His foot soldiers dropped their white handkerchiefs and picked up machetes, knives and sticks weaponized with nails as their weapons of choice and their badge of honor. Terror became the lingua franca of their political lexicon.
In March 2019, in a two-part interview with Tsion of the Voice of America (VOA), Jawar reveled that Qerro is well organized with proper chains of command all the way down to every nook and cranny of the Oromo tribal land (link: interview part 1 and part 2).
After the VOA interview, he gave another interview where he declared there are two prime ministers in Ethiopia. Further, he asserted the real power resides with Qerro that is able to takeover Addis Ababa within 24 to 48 hours. He reaffirmed this in another interview stating: “If war (“ግብግብ”) is needed, that is easier for me because all I need to do is incite Qerro and tell them let us finish the job we have started.”
In October 2019, when the Ethiopian government recalled his government-provided bodyguards in the middle of the night, he sent out a distress call to Qerro. Within hours, armed Qerros blocked the streets across the Oromia tribal land and unleashed wrath upon innocent people, killing 67 and wounding 213 more.
After they ravaged cities and towns large and small, Jawar instructed them to “Open the blocked roads, clean the towns of barricades, treat those who have been injured during the protests and reconcile with those you have quarreled with.” But he warned them to “sleep with one eye open.” At a moment’s notice, the region returned to normalcy, allowing families to bury their dead and salvage whatever is left of their properties and businesses.
The relationship between Jawar and Prime Minister Abiy was and continued to be based on the concept of frenemy – part friends and part enemies. They needed each other, and each believed he would manipulate the other to advance his agenda of consolidating political power. In this regard they tolerated each other, while working toward the demise of each other.
The Prime Minister succeeded in eroding Jawar’s political base by awarding prominent Qerro figures with bribe-prone jobs in customs office and other lucrative positions. Yesterday’s Qerro leaders are today’s nouveau riches and Prime Minister Abiy reliable forces. Outside of the office hour, they are behind the rampant kidnapping for ransom endeavor. During office hours, they are economic rent collectors. Jawar lost the bid for Prime Ministership and run away to Kenya for safety from where he is engaged in contraband trades.
His recent interview with the BBC in Kenya is what triggered me to pen this article. His interview lacked moral culpability and epitomized the morally malnourished Ethiopian intellectual culture. Unfortunate as it is, he is not an anomaly in Ethiopian politics. He is a microcosm of it. His tribal counter parts in the Tigray and Amhara political landscape exhibit similar anomalies.
My interest is not in denigrating him with this article. Rather, my aim lies in showing that political transformation without contrition, repentance, and redemption represents a self-serving political chicanery.
One thing is clear for Jawar. The Oromo hegemony that he was hoping for is a dead project. He rightly said tribal politics may be good to mobilize dissent. But it is not fit to govern a nation. Brad Young’s “Reality is a Bitch” song captures the moment. The lyrics of the song read in part:
Used to dream about sugar, sweet dreams
But reality is a bitch and she my bitch
Reality, indeed, is a bitch. When bitch becomes your reality, you have only one choice. That us to turn a corner. Over the last year, Jawar has taken a mission to turn a corner and present himself as a mellowed and matured champion of unity and peace. He attributed his past radical tribal politics to “the exuberance of youth, resentment and longing to get even” against those whom he held responsible for subjugating the Oromo people. He credited his current more sober and mature position to a long and deep introspection during his stay in prison.
In 2023, he gave a public speech stressing the path we followed over the last four years has pushed Ethiopia into an existential crisis. He emphasized that all Ethiopians need course correction. He reprimanded and pleaded with current peddlers of conflict to stop. Here is his statement in Amharic as he stated it.
ባለፉት አራት አመት የተሄደበት ሂደት ኢትዮጵያን ያፈራረሰ ያደከመ በህዝቦህ መሃከል ያለው ቅራኔ ወደ ጠላትነት እንዲገፋ ያደረገ እና ሃገር በከፍተኛ አደጋ ላይ የጣለ ነው። ካለንበት ችግር ውስጥ ለመውጣት ከዚህ በፊት በሄድንበት መንገድ መሄድ እንደማያዋጣ መገንዘብና ወደህዋላ መመለስ ነው። እየነደደ ባለ እሳት ላይ ቤንዚን ማርከፈክ መቆም አለበት
As part of his transformation journey, a year ago, in an interview with Dereje Haile of Arts Tv World, he abandoned his old narrative of Ethiopia as a colonizer 120-year-old country. He stated in no uncertain terms: “Ethiopia is an old state with a historically rooted long state formation lineage, like Egypt and Iran.” While rightly acknowledging Ethiopia’s political past that was dominated by war and political operations, he underlined the fact that all nations have gone through a time of war and subjugation. Ethiopia is no different.
In this week’s BBC interview, he went further suggesting that the disintegration of Ethiopia will lead to the disintegration of all tribal homelands. Indeed, this is a welcomed political transformation, considering his past. It must be remembered that he was the one who popularized “Ethiopia Out of Oromia” and “Oromia to Oromos” slogans in 2013.
It should also be remembered that he was the leader who in 2019 declared “Oromos should not pay attention to others complaining and making noise. The nation’s fate is in our hands. This is our opportunity now. Yes, it is our time. We must move forward without any worry about our own people’s or other people’s complaints and con.” Here is his speech verbatim:
“የሃገሪቷ እጣ ፈንታ በኛ እጅ ነው ያለው this is our opportunity now. Yes, it is our time. እከሌ ተንጫጫ እከሌ ተቆጣ ብለን የምንሸማቀቅ ሳይሆን በኛም ወገን ይንጫጩ በሌላም ወገን ይንጫጩ ጫጫታ ሰምተን ወደኋላ የምንሸማቀቅበት ሳይሆን በሙሉ አቅም በስትራተጂ ተመርተን ወደፊት መግፋት አለብን ምክንያቱም እኛ ከተሸማቀቅን የኦሮሞ alternative ሊበላሽ ነው”
Of recent, he has become vocal consistently criticizing the Prime Minister’s failure to address the complaints and concerns of the Amhara in a quest to “rebuild our country.” This is a radical change of political position.
Once again, Jawar’s attempt at a political comeback is a welcomed development. But alas, he lacks moral culpability that demands contrition and self-absolution. The path for contrition and self-absolution starts with honesty and genuine remorse. Sadly, honesty and genuine remorse seem to be a foreign concept to him.
In his BBC interview he presented himself as an: (1) anti the Abiy administration from the very beginning, (2) opponent of inter-tribal conflicts, and (3) agent of change, promoting political dialogue and democratic principles. These were all blatantly and demonstratively false.
It is not uncommon to see political figures twist and spin facts until they become a seamless part of their political narratives. Sadly, Jawar’s misrepresentations, exaggerations, and outright lies tip the scale toward an utterly deceptive manipulation.
There are plenty of video clips that contradict with his current claims that he was against the Abiy administration from the very beginning. He is on the record praising the Abiy administration as an agent of democratic change. He has gone as far as bragging that he was the one who architected the “political calculator” that the Abiy administration was using to democratize the nation.
In July 2019, his interview with Betty of the Betty show stressed: “ዛሬ ኦሮሞን አማራን ትግሬን ወክየ ጠብመንጃ ይዤ ጫካ ቁጭ ብየ የወረዳን፣ የክልልን የፌደራልን መንግስት እዋጋለሁ የሚል ማንኛውም ሃይል የህዝብ ጠላት ነው። የህዝብ ጠላት ነው።” He based his statement on his belief that the political space was conducive for a peaceful dialogue and the government was amenable for addressing legitimate demands.
Furthermore, far from being a proponent of inter-tribal peace and harmony, he was a peddler of tribal conflict. It needs to be remembered that he was the person who propagated Adwa as an epitome of Ethiopia’s history that dehumanized the Oromo. He wrote: “This Adwa thing should come around every month because it is kind of win-win for both sides. The other side gets high reliving the fictional glorious past rubbing salt on our wound and helping us further unify and mobilize our base.”
In 2019, when the government accused him and his Oromo Media Network (OMN) of instigating conflicts and bloodshed, his written response was: “Activists are doing what they are supposed to do, advocate for the particular cause or community they choose to stand for. The media is also doing its job…report events and spinning them. Activism and the media are not causing fire, their advocacy and reporting is just fueling a fire lit up by the action and inaction of the political parties and their leaders.”
Even worse, the following two examples attest that he was against political dialogue and democratic principles of governance.
First, in 2018, Ethiopians who opposed tribe-based federation were calling for national dialogue. Jawar publicly rejected it, stating: “Multinational federalism engrained in the current constitution is here to stay. It’s in not up for discussion, let alone negotiation. Anyone caught in some FANTASY should wake up from their hallucination.”
Second, in 2019, he rejected democratic competition within Oromo political parties. He publicly threatened the PM and the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) not to tinker with the idea of using constitutional reform as part of their election campaign.
In a now-deleted message he broadcasted: “We will not allow competition within Oromo parties… We must build a consensus and have a united front behind the current ethnic federalist system… We cannot allow ODP to behave like a ship that has lost its compass… They cannot tell us this is their party, and they can do what they choose to do. We will not allow that.” He went as far as giving the PM an ultimatum: Do as I say, or I will hand you “a calendar with Ethiopia’s expiration date.”
I believe Jawar’s current call for democratic transformation is a welcomed development. Given his past record of fomenting tribal conflicts, championing a hegemonic Oromo supremacy, and propagating anti-democratic values, such a positive transformation obliges repentance and redemption at best. At worst, it requires resisting the temptation to decorate one’s past with lies, exaggerations and misrepresentations.
