Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD
2024-09-14
These days both ordinary citizens and experts are actively discussing the various crises facing the country, including soaring inflation, declining trust in government institutions, limited access to basic services, enduring ethnic tensions, political instability, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Ordinary people perceive each crisis as separate and unrelated event. This often stems from the immediate, day-to-day impact of these crises, which seem disconnected from broader systemic issues. Experts often focus on specific aspects of the crisis based on their expertise—economists on inflation, sociologists on ethnic tensions, and political scientists on instability. While their insights are valuable, they have missed the interconnections between these issues.
The crisis which the country is facing now is broader and systematic. The issues at hand are not merely isolated incidents but are deeply embedded within the political, social, and economic fabric of the nation. The tendency of ordinary people to see problems as isolated events and experts to focus on specialized fields often leads to a mismatch between the nature of the crises and the solutions proposed. This can perpetuate or even exacerbate the current crises rather than resolving them effectively.
What is systematic failure
What the country is facing now is a systematic failure. It is about a breakdown and malfunctioning of the entire system or a significant part of it due to flaws within the social, economic and political system’s design, processes, and structure. The crises are not isolated, random, or individual errors. These failures are not simply accidental, or results of conspiracy theory. They are the result of deeper, intrinsic problems that affect the entire system or large portions of it.
Systematic failures can manifest in various ways, depending on the nature of the system involved (e.g., social, economic, political, organizational, or technological). But they have common manifestations. Systematic failures are widespread and recurrent. They are not localized to a specific area or isolated incident. They affect multiple parts of the system and recur regularly. They have a domino effect that spreads throughout the system, one failure triggers others. The system has structural problems, and it collapses because of inherent weaknesses in its design, often leading to total or partial shutdowns. The system is unable to recover from disruptions, often because it lacks built-in safety nets or redundancy.
In my study of the effects of rapid population growth under fragile institutions and poor policy design, I have observed these manifestations and characteristics of systemic failures in the country. For detailed empirical evidence, you can refer to my research on Semantic Scholar by searching my name
I have studied the essential needs (food, water, shelter, clothing, health and education) of 125 million people of the country. I observed a combination of backlogs in essential needs, additional shortages every year under fragile institutions, and poor policy responses. These interconnected issues have triggered a vicious cycle of dysfunction across political, economic, and social systems, eventually leading to widespread instability.
Combination of backlogs in essential needs and additional shortages every year
I have observed the government’s inability to meet basic needs such as food, healthcare, education, housing, and water, resulting in persistent deficits in these areas. For example, there is a significant gap between consumption and income. The annual per capita cost for essential needs ranges from $4,000 to $7,000, depending on government expenditure. In more developed nations, these costs are much higher, ranging from $10,500 to $31,500 annually, as governments invest more in quality education, healthcare, and social services.
Given the significant consumption costs associated with a population dominated by children and young adults (education, healthcare, housing, food, and infrastructure), and the need for diverse income sources (taxation, natural resources, foreign aid, private sector, etc.), the social and economic system in the country need to balance social welfare with economic growth. That means the government has to find an effective equilibrium between providing adequate social support and promoting economic development. This requires a comprehensive approach that integrates social support systems with strategies for economic development. The goal is to create a sustainable system where the needs of the population are met while also fostering an environment conducive to economic expansion and job creation.
Unfortunately, I have not observed balance in my studies at different levels of aggregation. What I have observed is backlogs in essential needs and additional shortages every year. Backlogs refers to the inability of the government and the system to meet basic needs such as food, healthcare, education, housing, and water, leading to persistent deficits in these areas. Additional shortages every year means recurrent and growing shortages in essential goods or services as the population continues to grow.
When essential needs are unmet, the population experiences widespread deprivation and frustration. This fuels social unrest, increases inequality, and weakens public trust in the government and institutions. People without access to basic services are often forced into poverty or dependence on informal systems, undermining the state’s authority and capability.
The accumulation of shortages over time compounds existing problems. It placed additional pressure on fragile institutions and led to crises in public services. For example, recurring food shortages caused hunger and malnutrition, which weaken human capital, while energy shortages stifled economic activity and productivity. With each passing year, the government’s inability to resolve these shortages exacerbated public frustration, leading to a breakdown in social order as we observe now.
Business as Usual
Today we are at this stage of broader systematic failure. To avoid or recover from systematic failure caused by these factors, holistic and long-term strategies are essential. But the actors continue to use the traditional approaches and solutions when dealing with complex and entrenched problems like systemic failures.
In contexts where political, social, and economic systems are breaking down, sticking to outdated or conventional methods of governance, economic management, or service delivery only perpetuates the crisis. In fact, it often makes the situation worse.
Systemic failures are often the result of complex, interdependent factors—corruption, social inequality, economic instability, political repression, ethnic divisions, etc. Traditional solutions usually address only one symptom at a time, without considering the broader system. This fragmented approach cannot deal with the complexity, and often, by solving one issue (e.g., trying to increase economic growth), other issues (e.g., political instability) get worse.
The country is suffering from corruption and governance failures. The conventional mechanisms of governance (e.g., policy-making, public service delivery) are often captured by elites, distorted by bribery, or weakened by lack of accountability. Business as usual involves superficial reforms or half-hearted anti-corruption measures that preserve the status quo and protect vested interests.
The traditional approaches to resolving political instability (e.g., temporary ceasefires, top-down peace agreements) often fail to address the root causes of conflict, such as exclusion, inequality, or historical grievances. Business as usual can involve elite bargaining that ignores broader societal needs, perpetuating cycles of violence and instability.
In summary, the current ‘business as usual’ approach often relies on short-term, superficial solutions to address challenges that are deeply embedded in political, social, and economic systems. This approach fails because it treats issues in isolation, overlooks systemic factors, and is frequently influenced by vested interests or outdated models of governance and economic policies.
All-inclusive long-term national development plan
To move forward, Ethiopia must address its systemic failures through transformational change. This requires rethinking how systems are structured, tackling the root causes of problems holistically, and promoting inclusive, sustainable, long-term solutions that go beyond conventional approaches.
I propose an all-inclusive, long-term national development plan as a strategic solution to these systemic failures. Such a plan would serve as a comprehensive roadmap for addressing the country’s interconnected political, social, and economic challenges. Key features of the plan include a long-term vision (spanning 20 to 30 years), broad stakeholder ownership, and specific, measurable goals with clear indicators to track policy progress. For details, see Ethiopia Needs Long-Term National Development Plan (Part Twenty-Six, Path Advice to Stakeholders)
