Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD
2024-07-27
I am deeply saddened to hear about the devastating landslide that recently struck the Gofa Zone. My heart goes out to all those affected by this tragic event. Please accept my heartfelt condolences during this incredibly difficult time.
The loss of lives, homes, and livelihoods is unimaginable, and I cannot begin to fathom the pain and sorrow the people of the Zone are experiencing. In the face of such a calamity, words often fall short of providing the comfort and solace needed. However, I want you to know that you are in my thoughts and research studies.
I was warning about the dangerous of high population density in the area. This disaster underscores the importance of addressing and mitigating the risks associated with densely populated regions, and it is a stark reminder of the need for ongoing efforts to ensure the safety and well-being of all communities.
In Southern Ethiopia, the population density, calculated as the number of households per cultivated agricultural land is high compared to other regions of Ethiopia. According to my calculation based on CSA (2006) agricultural data, the population density in Gofa Zone was 128 households per 100 hector. There are more than 15000 households with average household size of 5.3. See Population Pressure and Regional Development Disparities in Ethiopia: Case of Southern Region annexed table).
Due to high level of household density, access to land in the Zone is limited compared to other regions. As a result, households intensify agriculture on small plot of land using different livelihood strategies (for details see Population Pressure and Dynamics of Household Livelihoods in an Ethiopian Village. The southern regions have experienced a large youth cohort, which was about 40-70 percent of the adult population, while the central regions have cohort size of 20-40 percent of the adult population. (for details see Youth Bulge, Policy Choice, Ideological Trap and Domestic Political Unrest in Ethiopia).
High population density and agricultural intensification on small plots of land lead to significant environmental degradation. In the Gofa Zone, the land is scarce and the need to produce sufficient food for dense populations is high, in addition to the demand for jobs. Intensive farming on small plots can lead to soil exhaustion, and clearing land for agriculture reduces natural habitats, leading to loss of biodiversity. High population pressure can drive the conversion of forests into agricultural land. Deforestation contributes to loss of biodiversity, increased carbon emissions, and altered water cycles.
High population density and agricultural intensification can significantly increase the risk of landslides, particularly in hilly or mountainous regions. This is particularly true in regions with specific topographical and climatic conditions. The vegetation due to intensification practice absorbs significant amounts of water. Without it, the soil becomes oversaturated during heavy rains, increasing the risk of landslides. Building homes, roads, and other structures on unstable slopes can increase the weight and stress on the soil, leading to landslides.
I suggest expanding industrialization in rural towns as a solution to release high population density. This strategy aims to create employment opportunities for the youth bulge, diversify the economy, and improve living standards, thereby reducing the pressure on agricultural land and potentially alleviating environmental degradation.
Establishing industries in rural towns can create employment opportunities, reducing the dependency on agriculture and alleviating poverty. Small scale industrial jobs often offer higher wages compared to subsistence farming, improving the economic well-being of rural residents. By providing alternative employment, rural industrialization can reduce the pressure on agricultural land and slow down environmental degradation.
Rural industrialization in China (Township and Village Enterprises in the 1970s and 1980s) and India (Small-Scale and Cottage Industries) has been a significant aspect of their economic development strategies. Both high population growth countries have used different approaches and policies to promote industrial growth in rural areas, which have yielded various outcomes in terms of economic development, poverty alleviation, and social transformation. Both countries continue to evolve their strategies to promote sustainable and inclusive rural industrialization.
Ethiopia needs a visionary leader and strong institutions to expanding industrialization in rural towns to effectively address high population density and reduce environmental degradation. This calamity is a poignant reminder of the urgent need for effective and proactive measures to ensure the safety and well-being of all communities, particularly those in vulnerable areas. It is my sincere hope that this heartbreaking event will serve as a powerful lesson for policymakers and authorities, compelling them to take decisive actions to prevent such tragedies in the future.
In these moments of profound loss, it is also essential to honor the memories of those who have been lost. Their legacies will live on in the hearts of those who knew and loved them, and their sacrifices will hopefully inspire meaningful change in development strategies and policies.
አማራ ተመልከት፣ መዝግብ ፣ አትርሳ የኦቦ ጸጋዬ ተገኑ ዓይነት ሰዎች
መቼም በጎፋ ስለደረሰው ሕዝብ እንኳን ሰው እንሰሳም ቢሆን ድምፅ ማሰማት አለበት፡፡
ዳሩ ግን ይህ ኦቦ ፀጋዬ የተባለ የቀድሞ ኢህአዴግ ባለስልጣን የአሁኑ ፒፒ ካድሬ ዓመት ሙሉ የአማራ ህጻናትና ሴቶች በድሮን ሲሞቱ፣ ወለጋና ሌሎችም ቦታዎች በእሳት ሲቃጠሉና እሬሳቸው ሲጎተት ለማዘናጋት ተምዕራባውያን እየቀደ ስለ”ኢኮኖሚ” ይለቀልቅ ነበር፡፡ የአማራ ዘር ፍጅት ለእርሱ ጉዳዩ አይደለም፡፡ ይኸንን የሚረሳ አማራ ታለ በወገኖቹ ሞት የሚሳለቅ ነው፡፡
Personally I don’t use Communist China as an example but will cite Taiwan as one instead. I’m not sure if my dear brother had a chance to travel to Taiwan and eyeball its industry and how it is spread throughout the island. I will use one example I had the chance to do business with going back to the early 1980’s. It was part of my itinerary of factory visits. It took us about 2 hours by train and car to get there from Taipei. When I got there, it was a surprise for me.
The small factory is situated next to a small sized rice paddy owned by the same family and the workers in the assembly line were mostly women who live in nearby localities. That is just one of thousands of small factories spread out throughout that island. Some of the owners are still friends to me and my wife. I tell you what. Chiang Kai-shek might have been cited as a dictator but he was so brilliant when it comes to industrial planning. His industrialization policy took women in their millions from brothels and red light districts into humming factories. It took women from male dominated homes where they were kept as breeders into factories and offices. That put a screeching halt to the exploding population that island did not know how to deal with. It was almost an instant occasion of the liberation of Taiwanese.
Over the years, a woman I saw as one of machine operators during my first visit, found her to be a lead foreman during one of my follow-up factory visits. In the years that followed, many such women moved up to be factory managers and finally owners of their own factory. Can such advancement be repeated in countries like our own old country? Yes it is possible. It will not be an easy task. There will be failures but there will also be success. It requires true grit and staying the course.
I would like to tell my dear brother a story of one of my Taiwanese friends. I noticed they have one child only where my wife and I have two. I thought the reason might have been due to a government policy in the past limiting one child per family. But there was not such a policy in Taiwan. The husband told me it was because after their son was born the wife told him there would be no more. That is because she is an office worker and she wanted to concentrate on her career. She was not the only housewife that asserted herself as an equal member of the decision making duo at home. They were in their millions. That put a sudden kibosh on the exploding population explosion and leading to a meteoric rise in the standard of living in that island. STEM(Science, technology, engineering and mathematics) is an obsession(the same is true in South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong) in that island nation going back to the 1960’s.
That is what I would like to see duplicated in the old country. It was typical to see people in the streets all wearing face masks. It is not to protect themselves from pandemics but the air is filled with steams from factories every where. The smell can be unpleasant but it smells victory. It smells advancement. It smells bye-bye to grinding poverty. It smells going up the ladder to be one of the top highest GDP’s(PPP) in the world(about $75,000). Now that island is using its well gained wealth to clean up the air and vast industrial waste and has been doing a heck of a job. That is what I want to see our old country to go through. I would like to see a hefty smoke stock of a factory built on top of that mud hut where I was born bellowing steam into the skies. I will make no stink. Because once again that would smell like victory to me. It smells like victory because of the fact that industrialization swells up the size of the middle class, an ultimate slayer of despots, bigots and connivers. All one has to do is look at how Taiwan put an end to despotic governance. Its youth did not take to the bushes with AK-47’s to change that. It just overwhelmed and denied despots the means to rule. In spread out industrialization the common citizens does not need connivers and bigots like those in Minnesota or Toronto to find answers to how, why and what questions they may have. Industrialization has already conditioned the citizens’ mental ability to answer such questions satisfactorily by themselves. Just for a little talk with my dear brother.
Selam Ittu Aba Farda. Thank you for your insights. Ethiopia should look to East Asian countries as models for rural industrialization. The example of Taiwan you cited is particularly relevant and compelling. East Asian nations addressed issues like high population density, a youthful population, and surplus labor through rural industrialization, effectively leveraging its capacity to absorb these challenges.
In Ethiopia, especially in the southern regions where population density is notably high (as shown in the attached table), implementing rural industrialization in areas like Gofa could have mitigated environmental degradation and saved the lives of many. This approach offers a practical solution for both immediate and long-term challenges in southern Ethiopia. Unfortunately, it seems that there is a lack of attention to this potential strategy.
Tsegaye
Dear Brother Tsegaye Tegenu PhD.,
I hope and pray that at least some of those patriotic countrymen/women who are now there in the old country and in a thick of it working day and night to lead those noble and peace/stability starving citizens in the right path economically will have the chance to read your opinion.
I have read a story about some high level officials who traveled to the Far Eastern countries recently to learn first hand how those nations achieved so much success economically and technologically. To my utter dismay, they had avoided Taiwan. It is obvious that they did so to appease a bully, the Red China. You see, that is our typical problem. Since 1974, successive regimes back there lived their days stooping down to one despotic region after another. It was then the now dead and gone Soviet Union during Mengistu’s days until Gorbachev dropped him like a hot potato and now it seems to be Commies’ China. But at least they had included Singapore and South Korea in their fact-finding travel itinerary.
Singapore is a city state and every thing is in the city itself. South Korea has its industry mostly based in mega metropolitan areas. I had been to South Korea several times going back the mid/late 1980’s to visit factories while sourcing diamond blades and portable motors used to make small construction tools here at our factories. No matter what others say, it has worked for them and that is their peculiar experience. But if those delegates had traveled to Taiwan, they could have seen it themselves. Imagine a coffee or banana farmer in the highlands of Western Hararghe having a small humming factory churning consumer products be it toys or sundry and hiring mostly local women to do that. Imagine that Amhara, Sidama, Tigre and another small farmer having the best of both worlds on his small lot farm just the same.
When I say this I do that in good understanding that there will be failures endured by small entrepreneurs but that is just normal. But most will succeed. At the end of the day the middle class will swell to the point that it will make the days of despots, bigots and conniver numbered.
Keep writing brother! Blessings to you and your family.
(Btw, don’t forget to cheer our boys and girls at the Olympics)
The other piece of the puzzle missing is the absence of participation of manufacturing companies from Ethiopia from major trade shows here in the USA. Sometimes I here such participation by invisible outfits promoting the same ole, the same ole; coffee. We now have 2nd generation Ethiopians who speak English as their first language and those can be hired as translators. It involves the goodwill involvement of the regime itself. Again, I’m speaking from personal experience. Trade missions from Taiwan and Hong Kong were here attending and promoting their manufacturing capabilities going back to the early 1970’s. At hardware shows? They were there. At other manufacturers and assemblers shows? They were there. In many cases they might have gone back empty handed, but that was okay because that is the rule of the game: Some times you lose and most of the times you gain. Please note in those days they don’t internet to locate trade shows. They used their embassies and consulates to find the trade shows applicable to their capabilities.