By Dr. Suleiman Walhad
August 10^th, 2022

The Red Sea, the Gulf of Berbera and the Somali Sea separate the Horn of Africa from the Arabian Peninsula, where the widest water separation between the two regions is about some 355 km. Historically the two regions were always connected through trade and people movement from one region to the other. This was a trade which mostly favored the Horn of Africa States as this region supplied most of the sustenance and food of the Arabian Peninsula. At times it also involved manpower, even. The connection of the two regions still continues but now favors the Arabian Peninsula, which over the past six decades turned out to become one of the wealthiest regions of the world. The labor migration from the Horn of Africa States continues but now the trade between the two regions favors the Arabian Peninsula.

The change has caused an upheaval in the two regions where one still believes in the sanctity of the relations between the two regions and the other needs to demonstrate its stronger hand. Accordingly mistrust between the two regions have crept up into the relations as the Arabian Peninsula confident of its newly found wealth seems to over-exploit it, thus interfering in the rule of law and governance of the Horn of Africa States. The trade and manpower relationship between the two regions is no longer the mainframe of the link between the two regions but the wealth and application of what it can buy, is the main determinant of the relations between the two regions. Gulf Arab inspired piracy, terrorism, clan/tribal competition in the Horn of Africa States all financed by Arab wealth have become major impediments to the rule of law and governance in the Horn of Africa States.

In 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace treaty between themselves, but this was not done in either Addis Ababa or Asmara. It was signed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia with the presence of the Emirates as well, and this was prompted only by the wealth of the Arab Gulf States. Djibouti, another Horn of African State was also invited to the signing ceremony. The latter has a border dispute with Eritrea.

How is it possible that the Horn of Africa States, which have historical, cultural and even ethnic ties, unable to solve problems among themselves and resort to third parties whose interest lies is in the disruption of ties among the Horn of Africa States? This is a major puzzle and a question for the region’s leadership both governing and opposition! Even as we pen these words, we know the relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia, both of the Horn of Africa States is sinking, because of the actions or inactions of Arabs and their newly found wealth with respect to terrorism being exported into Ethiopia.

Many analysts read this as attempts of the Arab Gulf States to project power, but it is far from that. The Horn of Africa States is actually better situated to receive, fuel and service international shipping than Dubai or any other Gulf Arab state for that matter. The Horn of African ports of Massawa, Assab, Djibouti, Berbera and Bossaso are all better placed to serve international shipping than any Arab Gulf port including but not limited to Dubai, Salalah and even Jeddah on the Red Sea. The port of Aden is already out of commission as was designed and executed by the Emiratis. The worsening of relations between the two regions is, indeed, prompted by insecurity on the part of the Arab Gulf States and hence fear of the competition that these Horn of Africa States’ ports may pose to the business of the Arab Gulf ports and mostly to Dubai’ Jebel Ali.

The insecurity is further demonstrated by the fear of the possibility of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major passage of crude and gas exports from the Arabian Peninsula by the Iranians. The Saudis were building pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for some 20 years now and they have built export terminals on the Red Sea and hence the need to secure this important seaway from the Somali Sea through the Gulf of Berbera, and Bab El Mandab to the Suez Canal.

Despite being Muslims, the Arab Gulf States have also forgotten that charity is not a way to diplomacy. If one is a donor, it is for Allah, as Islam advises and not for gains. It would seem the Arab Gulf States use their newly found wealth to gain footholds in the Horn of Africa States to control them. They forget that other major powers of the world offer better than mere dollars. They cannot build roads and rail and they cannot build factories or other infrastructures and technologies, even through loans.  The claim that they invest in logistics, ports, and trade development remains a lame excuse for fear of losing to other ports and this is a far greater motive. They, indeed, depress-cum-suppress the growth of other ports. Djibouti found out of the ploy long ago and cut off the relations with DP World with great difficulties.

The Horn of Africa States has long historical relations with the Arab Gulf States, but those relations of old is no longer in place because the Horn of Africa States is now poorer of the two and Arabs only respect power. They associate themselves with the more powerful and not with the poor. They believe, because the Horn of Africa States is poor, they can dictate to them their will. It is where the Arab Gulf States are making a major blunder. The Horn of Africa States is a tough region despite being poor. They are a people who can die in hunger and never lose their intrinsic pride, despite the existence of few bad apples, like any other society.

The Horn of Africa States not only lies in a strategic location along the path to the Suez Canal but is also the source of the Nile waters that feed Sudan and Egypt and traditionally these two major factors generally determined its peace. How well they manage these two issues was always a determinant of the fate of the region. Both Sudan and Egypt never entered into the internal affairs and clans and ethnic groups of the region. The entry of the insecurities of the Arab Gulf States into the scene, has mudded and messed it up and truly poses an existential threat to the Horn of Africa States region. Today the whole region is embroiled in clan/tribal civil wars and terrorism and to a large extent, they all emanate from the insecurities of the Arab Gulf States. It is up to the leadership of the region to wake up to this new threat and face them boldly. They do not need the “qualche dollaro” they offer.

The SEED countries of the Horn of Africa States need to strengthen the economic, political, social, cultural, and security cooperation of the region to face off the threats posed by the insecurities of others. Peace and continuing reconciliation among the countries of the region would open new pathways including economic integration to cooperate and would change the landscape of relations in the region. Instead of the tag “Conflict-Ridden Region”, it should carry another tag the “Peaceful Region”. Arab Gulf States should know that the region is not a threat to them but need to survive too!

 

Dr. Suleiman Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at [email protected]

Published by Permission from the Journal of defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis
Founded in 1972. Formerly Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily
Volume XL, No. 38                 August 9, 2022  

Analysis. By Gregory Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs.

How is it possible to find hope for Ethiopia in the wake of hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and millions of people displaced and impoverished by power-seeking militants over recent years?

Those searching for positive developments in Ethiopia in mid-2022 could point to the fact that the massacre, on June 19, 2022, of at least 200 ethnic Amhara civilians by Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) militia in Tole — a village in Oromia region — may not have been just one more futile loss of innocent lives.

This latest OLF genocidal atrocity may have finally forced Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali to go hard against the OLF and its associates. The deaths — on top of the tens of thousands of deaths, injuries, and displacements of the past two years — may finally been enough to have stirred Ethiopia and the world into action.

Dr Abiy was quoted on July 8, 2022, as saying that, as a result of the June 19, 2022, OLF “massacre”, as Dr Abiy described it, and the June 27, 2022, mass killings in Hawa Gelan district of Qellem Wolega area of Oromia, the Government would now “eliminate” the organization. This would be difficult, given the extensive foreign support to the OLF, particularly from Egypt.

Until now, Dr Abiy has held off dealing as harshly with the OLF secessionist, marxist rebels as he did with the Tigré (Tigray) Popular Liberation Front (TPLF) — another extreme marxist group which controlled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 — largely because the Prime Minister is himself half-Oromo (and half-Amhara) and is the Oromo’s political leader within the Federation. The OLF is, in essence, an enemy inside Dr Abiy’s own tent, and is committed to the secession from Ethiopia of Oromia, the most populous region, and to breaking up the Ethiopian Federation.

The Tole mass killing event, which the OLF blamed on “retreating Government forces”, was just one of hundreds of OLF rampages, often conducted in concert with the now-quiescent TPLF which rampaged outside Tigré Region. Dr Abiy had been reluctant to prosecute a major suppression of the OLF — despite the fact that it was declared an illegal terrorist organization — for fear of being labeled “pro-Amhara”. The Amhara have suffered sufficiently in recent years to believe that Dr Abiy has proven his loyalty to the Oromo wing of the ruling Prosperity coalition.

Even the US journal, Foreign Policy, has allowed itself to be used as a tool of the OLF, claiming that Abiy’s attempts to hold together the Ethiopian Federation were merely attempts to use “Christian nationalism”. The OLF is a radical marxist organization and the Oromo population is mixed between Muslim and Christian. Dr Abiy’s father was Muslim, although he is a protestant Christian, not Ethiopian Orthodox, and the OLF — and Foreign Policy — attempted to paint him as trying to restore the primacy of the Orthodox Church which has been dominant in Ethiopia since the Fifth Century CE.

Dr Abiy has had enough, and was expected to use the National Defense Force to suppress both the OLF and any remnants of the TPLF (and several other terrorist and guerilla groups associated with both movements). The TPLF itself has not given up hope of pulling Tigré out of the Federation, and, despite the fact that Dr Abiy’s Government had, in June 2022, created a new reconciliation body to resolve the dispute with the TPLF, it was now attempting to control the reconciliation agenda. The TPLF rejected the African Union (AU) moderator in the peace talks, former Nigerian Pres. Olusegun Obasanjo, and has demanded that Kenyan Pres. Uhuru Kenyatta moderate, instead.

The TPLF is militarily exhausted, but not yet defeated. The US Government has been seen as the discreet supporter of the body, and had attempted to persuade European Union states and the UK to support the TPLF against the Ethiopian Government. Most European states, however, have rejected that pressure from Washington, and the EU Commission itself had earmarked 1-billion euros in aid for Ethiopia until 2027.

Many Ethiopians look to the Ethiopian Crown and the Ethiopian Orthodox Church as overarching entities which could help restore harmony.

Reacting on June 28, 2022, to “the senseless massacre of innocent Ethiopians in Wolega and Gambela”, the President of the Ethiopian Crown Council, Prince Ermias Sahle-Selassie Haile-Selassie, the grandson of the late Emperor, noted: “Nearly two decades ago, the Crown Council under my leadership announced its aim to be a strictly non-political institution. We stand by that goal. But it is not political to ask all Ethiopians to rise above party and ethnicity. It is not political to demand that our government and its leaders act quickly and decisively to protect the lives of all Ethiopians. And it is not political to remind Ethiopia that its Crown can help to unify and heal our country today, as it has at many moments in our past.”

In July 2022, the Ethiopian Government began talks with foreign creditors to restructure its debt. And despite the widespread drought in the Horn of Africa due to the El Niño phenomenon, Ethiopian wheat production had now begun to surge.

Inflation, which had surged immediately after the Tigré war began in November 2020, was, by May 2022, beginning to reduce (from 37.2 percent to 34 percent). A shortage of foreign currency, however, was limiting Ethiopia’s ability to import food and fertilizers, but some of the food shortage was also a result of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

According to World-Grain.com, Ethiopia’s wheat production in the 2021-22 marketing year was expected to be a record 5.18-million tonnes. Wheat production in Ethiopia has traditionally been limited to smallholder farmers who rely on rainfall, but the Government recently allocated $6-million to create better irrigation and provide access to farm machinery. Ethiopia remains a net importer of wheat, importing about 25 percent of domestic demand. Ethiopian barley production in the 2021-22 year was 2.36-million tonnes, a slight increase over the previous year. But Prime Minister Abiy has committed to making Ethiopia grain independent within the coming decade and, despite the vagaries of El Niño and La Niña climate cycles, that is now a visibly close achievement.

Meanwhile, skirmishes between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces continue in the disputed border region of al-Fashaga, close to the Ethiopia-Sudan- Eritrea border conjunction, and this has as much to do with internal Sudanese politics and Egyptian support as it does to new territorial claims.

US State Dept. attempts to isolate Ethiopia, and support the TPLF separatists, have clearly not succeeded, and US allies — along with Russia, the PRC, and even Iran — have been anxious to support the unity of the ancient Empire which is critical to the stability of the Suez-Red Sea trade route. Key to making the breakthrough into stability and a return to economic growth would be finding a creative solution to the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile waters, given that this dispute has fueled Egyptian attempts to destabilize Ethiopia.

In the short term, it is up to Prime Minister Abiy to eradicate the terrorist movements, and make the reforms he promised before the 2021 elections to the communist-based Constitution.

Al Mariam’s Commentaries
August 8, 2022

Is three a charm? (Behold, the charming Gang of Four.)

Mean Joe Biden (actually Susan Rice, the Princess of Darkness) sent the “Ugly American” Jeffrey TPLFeltman as a “special envoy to the Horn of Africa” (code for Ethiopia) in May 2021.

By January 2022, TPLFeltman,  a bloviating blowhard, had crashed and burned after he was outed as a TPLF agent.

He earned the title of  “Ethiopia’s Grinch and Ebeneezer Scrooge”.

Mean Joe (Susan Rice) then tapped David Satterfield in January 2022 as a replacement for TPLFeltman.

Satterfield bailed out in April 2022, apparently because he was not willing to be puppet mastered and given marching orders by Susan Rice.

On June 1, 2022, Michael Hammer was appointed as the third special envoy to the Horn of Africa.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement explained: “Hammer’s appointment underscores our abiding commitment to diplomatic efforts in the region, most urgently in support of an inclusive political process towards peace.”

Hammer tweeted back:

I knew right off the bat Hammer was a Susan Rice gofer and stooge.

On June 1, 2022, I tweeted back with prophetic certainty Hammer would crash and burn because “Susan Rice sent ya to be a terrorist TPLF negotiator.”

Blinken’s statement about Hammer supporting an “inclusive political process towards peace in Ethiopia” meant only one thing: Pressure and threaten Ethiopian government officials with crippling sanctions unless they agree to a power-sharing arrangement with the terrorist TPLF and ultimately hand over power to them.

The fact of the matter is that Hammer does not “work for the American people”, as he tweeted.

Hammer works for Susan Rice, the “American Woyane,” who masterminds and manages the gang of TPLF terrorists in Ethiopia from the US.

Truth be told, Hammer should be re-designated as “US Special Envoy on Behalf of the TPLF.”

Hammer is Susan Rice’s gofer, lackey and stooge.

From 2009-2011, in the Obama administration, Hammer served as Special Assistant to the President, Senior Director for Press and Communications, and Spokesman at the National Security Council at the White House.

From 1999-2000, Hammer served in the Clinton administration as Deputy Spokesman for the National Security Council.

As a Foreign Service Officer, Hammer served in  Bolivia, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark.

Hammer’s only experience in Africa is his ambassadorial assignment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (2018-2022).

Hammer was the Obama administration’s spinmeister defending the 2010 Ethiopian election allegedly won by the TPLF by 99.6 percent.

Human Rights Watch commented, “The 99.6 percent result was the culmination of the government’s five-year strategy of systematically closing down space for political dissent and independent criticism…”

On May 25, 2010, in its Preliminary Statement and Final Report the European Union observer mission stated: “the electoral process fell short of certain international commitments, notably regarding the transparency of the process and the lack of a level playing field for all contesting parties.” 

On May 25, 2010, White House National Security Spokesman Mike Hammer said:

We are concerned that international observers found that the elections fell short of international commitments. We are disappointed that U.S. Embassy officials were denied accreditation and the opportunity to travel outside of the capital on Election Day to observe the voting.  The limitation of independent observation and the harassment of independent media representatives are deeply troubling. An environment conducive to free and fair elections was not in place even before Election Day…

After visiting Mekele, the terrorist TPLF stronghold and taking selfies to his heart’s content, Hammer (and his sidekick) issued a joint press statement.

In that statement, Hammer proved beyond a shadow of doubt that he is a terrorist TPLF negotiator!

Hammer issued three orders in his statement to the Ethiopian government:

1) Undertake  “a swift restoration of electricity, telecom, banking and other basic services in Tigray”;

2) “imperatively” provide “unfettered access to Tigray accompanied by the lifting of sanctions on cash fuel and fertilizers;” and

3) provide “access to the International Commission of Human Rights Experts in Ethiopia to investigate a credible investigation.”

No orders for the TPLF!

All they TPLF leaders have to do is watch Ethiopia being screwed as they sip on “chilled screwdrivers”, their favorite cocktail drink, from the balcony at Axum Hotel in Mekele.

The Ethiopian government’s response to Hammer’s statement was direct, forthright and unambiguous.

Redwan Hussien, Ethiopian Minister for National Security tweeted, “The bottom line? The AU (African Union) is the only channel and has been reiterated in no uncertain terms once again.”

Translated into street language, “Hammer can take his statement and shove it up!”

Hammer as Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of Congo

In 2018, Hammer made all sorts of promises and pledges if confirmed as ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC):

If confirmed, I intend to continue our efforts to combat corruption and increase transparency, advance credible elections and a peaceful democratic transfer of power, continue this important humanitarian effort while seeking to address the underlying drivers of this urgent crisis and help set the DRC on a path to sustainable development and self-reliance, prevent future epidemics and potential pandemics.

Hammer’s record in the DRC has been a total failure.

Hammer pledged to combat corruption in the DRC at his confirmation hearing.

In 2018, DRC ranked 161/180 on the Corruption Index.

In 2021, DRC ranked 169/180 on the Corruption Index.

In 2021, 85% of Congolese thought corruption  increased in the previous 12 months and 80% of public service users reported paying a bribe in the previous 12 months.

Hammer made no effort to alleviate corruption in the DRC.

Hammer pledged to improve the electoral process in the DRC at his confirmation hearing.

General elections were held in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in December 2018.

In August 2021, a 44-page USAID-commissioned White Paper entitled “Recommendations for Electoral Reform in the Democratic Republic of the Congo” was issued in anticipation of the 2023 DRC election.

The White Paper made dozens of recommendation for electoral reform including constitutional and legal reform, amendments to the Constitution, organic law and other related laws, reforms of electoral and election dispute resolution mechanisms, consultations with political parties, observer groups and so on.

Hammer sat on his duff and did nothing to help implement any of the White Paper recommendations to help the Congolese.

Now, DRC is facing the real prospect of civil war over the 2023 election.

In March 2022, former DRC President Joe Kabila “declared war” stating, “it is impossible to organise the (2023) election in the current context.”

To complicate matters, there is widespread opposition to the electoral commission, the Constitutional Court and the proposed electoral law as the 2023 election looms.

Hammer gave new meaning to the old saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”

Mike, “The Hammer”, slipped outta DRC to become special envoy as DRC slowly descends into civil war.

To add insult to injury, instead of helping out the DRC, Hammer was meddling and destabilizing the DRC.

Hammer was widely criticized for interfering in DRC’s domestic politics.

In 2020, the speakers of the two houses of the DRC parliament protested Hammer’s  “meddling” and “activism”.

Hammer, in arrogant audacity, responded saying the Congolese people love him and “constantly ask for America’s support and express appreciation for our contributions.”

Hammer hammered the “old (DRC) political establishment that is determined to cling on to power for personal financial gain and try to hide behind arguments of nationalism or make accusations of foreign interference.”

Hammer pledged to “help set the DRC on a path to sustainable development and self-reliance.”

According to a June 30, 2022 World Bank report the DRC ranked the DRC 164/174 countries on the 2020 Human Capital Index:

 DRC’s Human Capital Index is 0.37 which is below the SSA average of 0.4. This means that a Congolese child born today can expect to achieve only 37% of their potential, compared to what would have been possible if they had benefited from a full, quality schooling experience and optimal health conditions.

Hammer did absolutely nothing “help set the DRC on a path to sustainable development and self-reliance.”

Hammer pledged to help “prevent future epidemics and potential pandemics” in the DRC.

The only thing Hammer has done to prevent epidemics in the DRC, particularly ebola, was to deliver a self-congratulatory speech and post an op-ed on a State Department website.

As of July 2022, under Hammer’s watch, the total amount of assistance for ebola prevention in DRC and Guinea is $3.5 million, a paltry sum considering the rapid spread and deadly nature of ebola outbreaks.

It appears Hammer spent most of his time in the DRC binging on gourmet food.

Hammer’s first trip as “Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa”: Special grey war operations?

Hammer’s service with the State Department mainly involved Scandinavia and Latin America.

Peter Pham, formerly a special envoy for the Great Lakes Region of Africa from 2018 to 2020 and a TPLF fellow traveler, commented Hammer’s inexperience in African affairs is a blessing because unlike Feltman and Satterfield he comes to the Horn with connections to key African leaders and without baggage.

Pham noted Hammer is

different from others. He’s very active publicly, Twitter, etc. so it’s a different type of diplomacy. In these types of settings you have to go with your sense of the native intelligence, experience, and good judgement of the person you put in there; and on all three of those, I would score Michael highly.

I believe Hammer was selected to become special envoy because he was the only one Susan Rice could find to send on a fool’s errand.

Rice wanted a “yes man” who would respond, “how high?” when told to jump.

Rice appointed Hammer because she is so obsessed and possessed with the passion to save the terrorist TPLF and Hammer — naïve, ignorant, callow —  fit the bill.

Which self-respecting American diplomat would agree to become special envoy having watched his predecessors crash and burn after serving in the position for just months?

Hammer was selected because he is a fool who will rush in where angels (and even devils) fear to tread.

On July 23, 2022, the State Department announced

Hammer will travel to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia between July 24-August 1 to provide U.S. support for Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations and   review progress on delivery of humanitarian assistance, and accountability for human rights violations and abuses as well as efforts to advance peace talks between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan authorities.

But before travelling to Ethiopia, Susan Rice had made arrangements for Hammer to do a dog and pony show for the “Ethiopian diaspora.”

It was a Zoom meeting with individuals described as “Ethiopian diasporans.”

The person who coordinated the diaspora Zoom meeting is a woman named Nora Dempsey.

On her Linked In page, Dempsey describes herself as follows:

I am currently leading Ethiopian diaspora outreach for the State Department during a particularly challenging time for Ethiopia.

Dempsey is classified GS-14 under the general federal schedule pay scale and earned $157,709 in 2020.

It boggles the mind the US government should hire someone at an annual salary of $157,709 to do “outreach” in the “Ethiopian diaspora”.

What is so special about the “Ethiopian diaspora” that the US government has to hire a highly paid bureaucrat to look after them?

Or is Dempsey running a special psyops and surveillance on “Ethiopian diasporans”?

Out of which State Department office is Dempsey operating in her “outreach” to the “Ethiopian diaspora”?

Or does Dempsey operate out of a secret covert special psyops office for “Ethiopian diasporans”?

Who appointed Dempsey to become “Ethiopian Diaspora Outreach Officer” and with what specific duties?

How was the special office created for Dempsey? Under what legal authority?

We shall leave these question for another day.

More fundamentally, I am not sure what Dempsey means by “Ethiopian diaspora.”

I know there are Ethiopian Americans just like any other group of immigrants in American society.

Just like there are Nigerian Americans, German Americans, Italian Americans and so on.

The fact of the matter is that there is no other diaspora group for which the US government has assigned a “diaspora relations” officer?

So, why are Ethiopians singled out for such special treatment?

The fact of the matter is that Dempsey is an old Susan Rice & Gail Smith gofer.

Between 1999-2000, Dempsey was Director of African Affairs at the National Security Council.

During that time, Dempsey worked closely with Gail Smith (USAID Administrator 2015-2017) and Jendayi Frazer, Bush II’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs (2005-2009).

During 1999-2000, Smith was the National Security Council’s African Affairs “Office Head” tasked as follows:

The African Affairs Directorate advised and assisted the President and National Security Advisor on all aspects of U.S. foreign policy with respect to Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy, politics, security and humanitarian concerns. (See pp. 40-41 at link above.)

Incredibly, at that time Dempsey and Smith plotted to subvert Voice of America for State Department propaganda purposes in violation of  Sec. 206, Title V of the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 as amended.

Sec. 206 mandates

 VOA will serve as a consistently reliable and authoritative source of news, represent America, not any single segment of American society, and present the policies of the United States clearly and effectively and present responsible discussions and opinion on these policies.

In email exchanges, Dempsey and Smith were plotting to use VOA to “perform an important role” and sought to meet with VOA officials and underscore to them the “role” they can play and prevent them from “hurting our peacemaking efforts and our shared hopes for the people of the region. We need to make contact with VOA, get them on the team and start working on their scripts.”

Indeed, start working on propaganda scripts purposes in violation of  Sec. 206, Title V of the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 as amended.

The fact of the matter is that  Susan Rice, Gail Smith, Samantha Power and Nora Dempsey and others have been working together for decades advancing a foreign policy within US foreign policy!

It was this Nora Dempsey who arranged the so-called “Ethiopian diaspora” meeting for Hammer.

Following the meeting, the Bureau of African Affairs tweeted:

There was no explanation how Dempsey selected the diaspora Ethiopians for inclusion or exclusion in the Zoom meeting.

In response, Neamin Zeleke, a well-known and highly respected Ethiopian American human rights activist in the US tweeted:

A diplomatic fool on a fool’s errand

Mike Hammer is a disgrace to American diplomacy and brings shame to the American people pledged to serve at his confirmation hearing.

Hammer is clueless!

About Ethiopian and Horn politics.

Clueless about the position of “Special Envoy.”

Clueless about diplomatic decorum, professionalism and ethics.

Admittedly, neither Ethiopia nor Africa in general are top priority for the Biden administration to send the best and brightest diplomats.

But is a downright insult to Ethiopia and Africa in general to appoint such a buffoon as special envoy.

Hammer is so enamored with the TPLF terrorist leaders he forgot he was a high-level special envoy tasked with addressing extremely complicated situations in the Horn region.

It is crystal clear Hammer has not done his homework when he waddled his way into Addis Ababa.

Hammer was taking selfies with terrorist leaders like a teenage groupie taking selfies with rock stars.

The TPLF leaders with whom Hammer is “selfi-ing” are genocidal warlords and war criminals.

The TPLF leaders and their organization has been designated “terrorist” by the Ethiopian government.

Hammer is proud to take selfies with leaders of an organization classified as terrorist by the US government until that designation was lifted in 2014.

Hammer taking selfies with terrorist TPLF leaders is the equivalent of Thomas West, the Special Envoy for Afghanistan Reconciliation taking selfies with Taliban terrorist Sirajuddin Haqqani  who remains on the FBI’s  most wanted list.

The two terrorist leaders with whom Hammer was taking selfies are on the Ethiopian Government’s Most Wanted Terrorists List with a warrant issued for their arrest.

The TPLF is to Ethiopia as Al Shabab is to Somalia.

Hammer’s selfie with the terrorist leaders proved to the Ethiopian people and Africa that the US can never play the role of honest broker in the conflict in Ethiopia.

What was Hammer thinking (assuming he can think, of course)?

The selfie with the terrorist leaders will forever define him in the eyes and minds of the Ethiopian people. Mike, the TPLF hammer!

Could Hammer be conducting “Selfie Diplomacy”?

The fact of the matter is that Hammer is not only ignorant of the history and customs, he is also clueless about diplomatic decorum.

A 17^th century English diplomat is credited with the observation, “A diplomat is “an honest man sent to lie abroad for his country.”

Hammer is a US diplomat sent to Ethiopia to take selfies with terrorist leaders.

Hammer is clueless there are at least two types of “diplomacy.”

There is the usual “government diplomacy” which involves conducting business between and among governments conducted through bureaucratic institutions and processes. Such diplomacy is the staple of foreign policy.

Then there is “public diplomacy” in which governments aim to communicate directly with foreign publics to establish a dialogue designed to inform and influence with the aim that this foreign public supports or tolerates a government’s strategic objectives.

The US Department State, for instance, has an Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs which “leads Department efforts to expand and strengthen the relationships between the people of the United States and citizens of other countries by engaging, informing and understanding the perspectives of foreign audiences.”

Hammer’s selfie and openly cozy lovey-dovey relationship with the TPLF terrorist leaders has completely destroyed the government and public diplomacy of the US in Ethiopia.

Today, the Biden administration is widely seen by the Ethiopian public as an incorrigible and unrepentant supporter of the terrorist TPLF and an implacable enemy of the Ethiopian people.

In November 2021, I made the legal case against the Biden administration for state terrorism in Ethiopia.

In Ethiopia today, the Biden administration is viewed with great suspicion.

Thanks to the Biden administration, American diplomats have a reputation for duplicity, immorality, mendacity, lack of veracity, opacity and stupidity.

They are viewed as arrogant allies of the terrorist TPLF and will leave no stone unturned to destroy the democratically elected government of Ethiopia and replace it with the terrorist TPLF.

But over the past year and half, American diplomats in Ethiopia have shown arrogance, ignorance, stupidity, unabashed partiality towards the terrorist TPLF and mindboggling incompetence in their government and public diplomacy in Ethiopia.

Elihu Root, Teddy Roosevelt’s Secretary of State and 2012 Nobel Peace Laureate wrote,

More fights between natural persons come from insult than from injury. …. Nations are even more sensitive to insult than individuals. One of the most useful and imperative lessons learned by all civilized governments in the practice of international intercourse has been the necessity of politeness and restraint in expression.

The business of diplomacy requires great care.

While this may come as a complete surprise to Hammer, it is true that one of the principal functions of a diplomat, especially a special envoy, is to transmit official messages and report responses as well as objectively describe and interpret the diplomatic environment.

Much diplomatic reporting is about “informing and shaping policy through prophetic reporting and analytical writing.”

What kind of report will Hammer prepare for Blinken, or more accurately to Princess of Darkness Susan Rice?

Hammer has failed as he has lost all credibility with the Ethiopian government and the Ethiopian people!

As I predicted the day Hammer was appointed, Hammer has crashed and burned as a special envoy in Ethiopia.

Hammer’s second failure is that he has trapped himself in a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Hammer will now report to Rice and Blinken the Ethiopian government is just as they described them.

He will report Ethiopian leaders are intransigent, unreasonable, stubborn, inflexible, cantankerous, recalcitrant… blah blah blah…

So, Hammer’s report will only serve to justify decisions Rice and her underling Blinken have made.

HAMMER ETHIOPIA WITH CRIPPLING SANCTIONS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN!

Hammer would have best served the American people (instead of Princess of Darkness Susan Rice) he has claimed to serve when appointed special envoy if he were in a position to objectively present the Ethiopian government’s position instead of inevitably slanting his report to fit the perceptions and predeterminations of Rice and Blinken.

A diplomat without any credibility is a “dumbplomat.”

Mike Hammer is a “dumbplomat”!

A 17^th century English statesman and diplomat observed, “Nothing is so fatal to a nation as an extreme of self-partiality, and the total want of consideration of what others will naturally hope or fear.”

Hammer’s extreme partiality to the terrorist TPLF has made him a laughingstock among the Ethiopian people.

I pity him for his abysmal lack of diplomatic professionalism and ethical awareness in his ebullient and extreme partiality to the terrorist TPLF.

In my view, in any other country, Hammer would have been declared persona no grata and kicked out forthwith.

Minimally, any other government would refuse to do business with him as an official diplomatic agent of the US government openly working on behalf of a terrorist group.

The “classic function of diplomacy is to effect the communication between one’s own government and other governments or individuals abroad, and to do this with maximum accuracy, imagination, tact, and good sense.”

Hammer has as much imagination, tact, and good sense as Mr. Magoo.

Mr. Magoo is a bumbling cartoon character who runs around putting himself in comical situations because of his extreme near-sightedness and inability to acknowledge a problem he is facing.

Hammer is the Mr. Magoo of American foreign policy putting himself in comical situations with terrorists.

Unlike Hammer, Mr. Magoo rescues himself from the sticky situations he puts himself in.

I wonder if Mike Magoo. before taking the job,  asked himself or others why Feltman crashed and burned, and  Satterfield bailed out in just a few months.

I pity Chargé d’affaires Tracey Jacobsen!

(BTW, a chargé is appointed when the level of relations between two states is lowered to below the ambassadorial level. The chargé is accredited to the Minister of Foreign Affairs instead of the head of state.  Ambassador Geeta Pasi “retired” after serving less than a year. Word on the street is that she would not take marching orders from Susan Rice.)

Jacobsen has been on the job since February 2022.

She has been on a charm offensive for months travelling all over Ethiopia.

While I have reservations about her, outwardly she appears to be working to improve US-Ethiopia bilateral relations.

As the Hammer fiasco unfold, I can imagine Jacobsen pacing the embassy grounds grinding her teeth and talking to herself, “This damned fool has messed up the work I have done rebuilding frayed relationships. In one fell swoop, he wiped it out all.”

In 2008, during the presidential campaign, Samantha Power promoting her book in Britain said of Hilary Clinton:

We fucked up in Ohio. In Ohio, they are obsessed, and Hillary is going to town on it, because she knows Ohio’s the only place they can win. She is a monster, too – that is off the record – she is stooping to anything.

Well, the same can be said of Hammer in Ethiopia.

Hammer will stoop to anything to carry out Susan Rice’s commands. She is a monster too.

Hammer has messed up in Ethiopia, big time!

African solutions to African problems

I do not know why the Biden administration insists on playing a “mediator,” “broker” role in Ethiopia.

Correction, I do.

The Biden administration, that is Susan Rice, will not rest until she restores the terrorist TPLF to power in Ethiopia. Period!

All I can say is, “No rest for the wicked!”

What is the bottom line?

Ethiopian Minister for National Security has answered the question with crystal clarity.

Hammer is a clown and a disgrace to American diplomacy and MUST resign

It is an insult to appoint someone like Hammer special envoy to any part of Africa, let alone the Horn with so many problems.

In the end, Mike Hammer is widely seen in Ethiopia as clown.

As in Bozo the Clown.

As in Bozo Mike, “America’s Most Famous Special Envoy Clown” in Ethiopia.

In Shakespeare’s “As You Like It,” the melancholy traveler Jaques protests:

A fool, a fool, I met a fool i’ th’ forest,
A motley fool. A miserable world!
As I do live by food, I met a fool,|
…
“Good morrow, fool,” quoth I. “No, sir,” quoth he,
“Call me not ‘fool’ till heaven hath sent me fortune.

“Goodbye Hammer,” quoth I.

Indeed, a motley fool. A miserable world!
As I do live by food, I met a fool.

What more can I say?

Turning from the sublime to the ridiculous, it is about  Porky Pig Diplomacy.

And in the memorable words of Porky Pig,

“T-T-T-That’s all folks!”

Dr. Suleiman Walhad
August 6^th, 2022

The SEED countries i.e., the Horn of Africa States own and straddle a complex but fortunately centrally located strategic region in the world. It owns a significant youthful population on a large geographical space of some nearly 1.9 million square km involving mountains, plains, plateaus and coasts and it enjoys sunshine around the year and plenty of rain that feed the Great Nile River, but it is also paradoxically exposed to irregular rains, dry weather, and droughts in large parts of its vast lands. Many are awed and fascinated by the immense potential of this region and try to disrupt it and exploit every conceivable slight differentiation in its historical context, current infrastructure, and peoples and countries of the region, both politically and economically, fearing that an economically integrated Horn of Africa States would be difficult to manipulate for their own nefarious ends.

Historically, throughout human history, the Horn of Africa States region was always at the crossroads of trade and people movement among the African, Asian, and European continents. Empires and sultanates have grown and subsided in the region throughout history and both Christianity and Islam have entered and embedded themselves in the region almost from the beginning of each religion, but despite few short-lived struggles between the two religions, adherents of both have been largely tolerant of each other for millennia. The region is the source of the lifeline of countries to the north of the region i.e., it is the source of the Blue Nile, the Sobhat and the Atbara rivers, which provide most water to Sudan and Egypt. It also owns and straddles the main shipping seaway that feeds the Suez Canal and hence trade between the three old continents of Africa, Asia and Europe through the Red Sea, Gulf of Berbera and the Somali Sea.

The region is so important that it always draws the attention of the great powers of the world. At one time it was the Greeks and the Persians, which was replaced by the struggles between the Romans and the Persians, and this was followed by colonial Europe which dug and operated the Suez Canal for nearly a century. This was followed by the competition between the Ex-Warsaw Pact led by the Ex-Soviet Union and NATO led by the United States. Today, the same struggles and competition continues over the control of the region between the superpowers of China and Russia on one side and the United States and Europe on the other, although there are also some intermediate powers struggling to have some footing in the region. All of these competitions only cause headaches for the region’s leadership and protract the miseries of the people of the region who are already suffering from the effects of climatic changes affecting the entire planet. The region of the Horn of Africa States remains one of the most affected areas in the world, where droughts and famines are ever more becoming a regular occurrence.

And because of the mess and chaos in the region, forces of evil, terrorism and all kinds of unwelcome actors have found themselves a safe place to breed and cause havoc not only to the local populations of the region but also to the world and most importantly to neighboring regions as well. The region is now exposed to increased arms trafficking activities which imperils not only the population of the region but also any chances of reconciliation. The illegal trade in arms appears to be a lucrative and profitable business and some of the big boys of the region perhaps play a part. It is one of the sad news of the region, which connects it to all kinds of nefarious activities including transnational terrorist groups, drug smuggling, and other conflicts.

Despite these negative tags, the Horn of Africa states, poses another poster picture. There is the possibility of both individual country and regional peace and the possibility of enhanced co-operation among all the members of the SEED countries. Relations among these countries after passing through the problems and difficulties of the past century and half are bound to have hiccups on the path to common addressing and common understanding of regional issues, but the main goal remains shining and could be achieved. It is often said that one cannot change the past, but changes start always somewhere, and a new page is always better to start from where one stands. No one can change the past, but one can change what is coming and determine where the end would be, and the Horn of Africa States region is presently on the start line. The future is wide open, and possibilities at its door are vast. Would the leadership of the region (both ruling and opposition groups) seize the opportunity? But the Horn of African States citizen has also a choice and he/she should persuade the leaders to work towards lifting up the region and not sinking it further.

The Horn of Africa States owns potentially undeveloped but exploitable resources such as  crude oil, gas, gold, copper, silver, platinum, iron ore and even coal and more. The region also owns vast tracts of fertile soil, wildlife, and not so small tracts of forest cover. One should not forget that the region owns some 4700 km of coastal belt and even longer coasts surrounding its many Islands and this represents an economic world of its own – a blue economy which could include not only fishing and shipping but also trade, tourism, manufacture, and mineral extraction and even marine sports. However, its main importance comes from its strategic location, which the region has yet to exploit to its fullest.

This is a region which links the East and the West, the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Asia. It is where a substantial portion of world oil and gas (some 11%) and a significant part of world’s other goods passes through. Note it connects the Red Sea, the Bab El Mandab, and most importantly one of the most important chokepoints of sea transport, and the Indian Ocean and is a gateway for the Suez Canal,  without which this man-made water channel would end up to naught. It owns major ports needed for international trade and mostly for the African continent, for which they are major entry points. One must note that the African continent is a source of some 40% of world’s raw materials, and it owns plenty of both water and energy sources, which makes the world tick, signifying its essentiality for global economic growth.

The region is the origin of coffee and exporter of one its best qualities, generally and wrongly referred to as Coffee Arabica. It should be Horn Africanus or Ethiopian to be more precise. It is also home to indigenous grains like the teff and other food plants like the ensette and its own barley, wheat, sorghum and millet native grains. Despite the mostly man-induced shortage of foods in the region, it owns great farmlands which can feed not only its population but many others and especially those in the dry Arabian and Egyptian lands. It is where the latter two regions have failed, for they do own financial resources, which could have enabled them to cooperate with the Horn of Africa States which owns the lands and the water to grow food to feed both populations, instead of disrupting the lives of the people of the Horn of Africa States through unnecessary conflicts, arms supplies and endless political maneuverings.

The Horn of Africa States region further owns a large youthful population, which is a hidden asset. They can be easily trained and adoptable to modern mechanisms of production when such opportunities are made available. The leaders of the region need to pay attention to this important asset, which should not be wasted in senseless clan/tribal conflicts and regional disturbances. This would be a major defense wall against uninvited foreign intruders like terrorists and mercenaries and other evil forces that today mark the region. As people move from the rural areas to urban settings, the region would need to prepare for this mobility of people, preparing the old urban centres and the new ones that would come up to accommodate reasonable living conditions in terms of roads, streets, drainage, sports and culture, schools and healthcare facilities and many other aspects of life. This would require, of course careful planning and resources and minimizing internal conflicts and using the resources of the region for development would be the correct path.

The region is generally agricultural and manufacturing plays only a minor role. Services are also limited, while transportation is hampered by the underdeveloped road and rail infrastructures of the region. Ethiopia remains the largest economy with Somalia, after decades of civil chaos, barely recovering. Djibouti’s economy is generally based on services while Eritrea remains a small agricultural economy. Generally, the region would need to co-ordinate and plan together for the future, where complementarity would play a major role. Ethiopia, for example would be the main source of energy and in fact labor. It does own the largest population. Somalia and Eritrea and Djibouti would offer the long coast for development of ports and other infrastructures that would employ many of the unemployed youth of the region. Should the negativity surrounding the region be reduced, there would the intrepid investors who would come to invest in the land and seas of the region to make money. The region’s governance should be able to change the stiff and unfriendly legal systems currently in place in most countries to accommodate those investors and others. No one would be taking the land. Let the investors make money and make money for the region as well. It is when you scratch the back of others,  that they would scratch yours too, but nothing is free. Preparing oneself for foreign investors is not an easy process, but one must know that investors would only come to make money and not for other ulterior motives. As long as they make money, they would stay. It is on the onus of the leadership to bring them in and keep them in. Mostly this is related to the legal infrastructures, for like all business, there are always contracts and legal agreements whose clauses and articles must be protected and maintained. The rest depends on efficiency  and ease of governmental services, skills and costs. The region should work on all fronts for minimal costs and efficient services to attract investors who would attract more investors, all intending to make money.

Skills are assured through good education and the region should educate its populations to enable them work in the new technologically advanced world we live in today. Poor education, outdated curricula and poor management would need to be addressed and updated to handle 21^st century skills.  Another important aspect which most countries overlook is that investors from outside would also bring in skilled personnel from beyond the region not only to train the local staff but also to manage the projects they are investing in. They would also bring in their families and sometimes their friends. What is important for them, as is also important for the local populations, is the availability of a good healthcare and reliable system, including but not limited to hospitals, but doctors, nurses and healthcare personnel and good health insurance companies. Many countries overlook this and find themselves disappointed when most foreigners leave or advise potential investors not consider investing in the region.

The Horn of Africa States is potentially rich but poor currently. To unlock its prosperity, the region would need:

• To create officially the platform of the Horn of Africa States as a regional block with all the formalities and necessary infrastructures and organs.
• To  improve public administration, install rule of law,  create a sound macroeconomic framework for the region and in each country, reduce corruption, and present to the world easy and transparent business procedures, that would be able to attract not only local investors to invest more but also non-regional and international investors.
• To reduce and minimise internal upheavals, which mostly involve clan/tribal competition over the current meagre resources. Should the pie increase, the rule of law implemented, and competence placed before the clan/tribe, the region would perform much better than is currently the case.
• To ease travel within the region, so that people can travel to each part of the region and easily settle where they wish to reside in the region as long as the person is carrying official Horn of Africa States papers.

It is always better for the SEED countries to swim together and not sink divided.

Dr. Suleiman Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].

By: Merhatsidk Mekonnen Abayneh

The Origin of Peace

The genesis of peace is rooted in the evolution and normal functioning of the human race. In that case, The very survival of the human society is attributable to the collaboration and positive interaction between and among its various groupings. For a Genuine Peace to flourish and last long, therefore, there Needs to abound or prevail a Healthy Political Discourse between and among the belligerents in any given context.

 

Defining Peace

What Explains or elucidates Peace In the first Place?

The familiar definition of peace is the absence of war or the silence of gun fire. But its actual content is broader and deeper than that.

Peace may be posited as an essential condition in which things keep going and functioning to the extent they are bound or prescribed to happen by nature. It is an indispensable and core bedrock for the origination and sustenance of both for human and nonhuman beings altogether.

 

The Public Nature of Peace

When universally approached, peace is comprehended more as a unique public treasure than a simple private possession. If perceived from a macro-level standpoint, it turns out to be a key prerequisite for the very existence of a society and state.

 

Galtung  and his Conceptualization of Peace

Yohan galtung  is a distinguished Norwegian sociologist well noted for his seniority as the ‘ father of modern peace and conflict studies’. Following his rigorous inquiry, he has unveiled the two classic dimensions of peace as a notion: ‘negative peace’ and ‘positive peace’.

According to him, negative peace simply denotes the absence of war and violence in a given situation. Positive peace, however, presupposes the elimination of contradictory and unjust relations between and among different communities and other groups such as national oppression, domination, exploitation and social inequality prevailing in a given context.

 

The Position of Government Authorities in Relation to Peace

Worldwide, governments may temporarily pacify and securitize their jurisdictions by primarily using a brute force at any cost. If peace is to hold firm and long-lasting on the ground, though, it must be driven at and achieved by peaceful or nonviolent means and methods.

 

Peace vs. Other Essentials

In terms of Relations, peace is inextricably linked with sustainable development, without which the latter would be impracticable, to say the least . Likewise, it is aligned with the administration of criminal justice and the reign of public security when it comes to the national system of governance.

 

The Right of the Peoples to Live in Peace

The right of the peoples to live in peace is a fundamental right to be collectively enjoyed as a whole. It was recognized and pronounced by the UN Declaration on the Right of People to Live in Peace.

This historic declaration was adopted by the UN General Assembly Resolution No. 39/11 on November 12 1984.

The Declaration does, among others, recognize that “the maintenance of a peaceful life for peoples is the sacred duty of each State”. Its initial provision contained in Art. 1. Solemnly proclaims that “the peoples of our planet have a sacred right to live in peace”.

Art. 2. Of this soft instrument equally and correspondingly provides that “the preservation of the right of peoples to peace and the promotion of its implementation constitute a fundamental obligation of each and every state”.

Window-Dressing

In Ethiopia, we have introduced the Ministry of Peace little known elsewhere while revising our principal government structures in 2018. Paradoxically, though, the general status of our peace and security has been deteriorating by the day since we have opted for this mechanical reform in place.

As it stands now, the named ministry does not appear to diligently promote and strive for peace to the expectation of the general public or citizenry.

What a ridiculous burden added to the country’s already swelling bureaucratic constellation!

 

The Leadership in Charge

The present political leadership in Ethiopia vows to transform the country by bringing about prosperity in all its manifestations. But that very desire remains elusive and is a wishful rhetoric in a rather hostile and toxic atmosphere due to the conspicuous absence of peace and stability.

Obviously, where durable peace and harmony are fraught with a huge deficit, there won’t be an ideal platform for an overall national progress and prosperity no matter what effort might be exerted under the circumstances.

 

 

What Price to Pay?

Ethiopia finds itself amid adverse and volatile political terrain at the moment.

What price should the poor country pay and for whom in order to regain genuine peace and reliable security it has been deprived of and normalize itself in the wake of the senseless war and devastation it had to suffer for no legitimate cause?

Unilateral Cessation of hostility?

humanitarian-induced trucelike the one agreed upon between the Federal Government and the terrorist TPLF Rebels on the initiation of external brokers?

Territorial concession or adjustments which the TPLF wants occur between the Amhara and Tigray Regions as per the persistent demand of the terrorist group?

Constitutional overhauling and the courageous alteration of its ethnic-based federal system?

 

Politics as a Mode of narrowing Differences

In its contemporary understanding, politics is an orderly mode of settling differences by gentle means other than war and military confrontation. But what we do observe in Ethiopia today on a routine basis is poisonous hatred and rife animosity sadly expressed on ethno-linguistic and religious lines.

To begin with, the nature and operation of the mainstream Ethiopian politics is not that dynamic to serve the purpose of peace. What largely characterizes or symbolizes the essence of our politics since the 1960’s and 1970’s is bitter hatred and authoritarianism usually expressed in the form of internecine warfare and mutually assured destruction.

Internecine hatred is, on its part, detrimental for an intergroup harmony in a peaceful co-existence.

 

The Heavy Cost of False Imagination

Ordinary Ethiopians are currently tired of being manipulated and persuaded for unrealistic heaven of peace and prosperity in a relentless leadership address.

Nevertheless, peace is not something to be preached out of false imagination of what is to come about in the future, but to be experienced in real life at the present.

Working for peace is not as easy as warming up for war.

It is not sufficient to pretentiously and repeatedly bark in the air that Ethiopia shall not be dismantled for good. Such an empty rhetoric has to be backed up by a healthy and meaningful political action.

This may best be explained by the following verse from Artist Getish Mammo’s fresh Amharic hit recently released to our appeal and formidable taste.

The song is entitled   ‘ወደኋላ’-

እሳት ይዞ መጥቶ እያቃጠለኝ፤

ሠላም ነው ይለኛል ሠላም ሳይሰጠኝ፡፡

To our reluctance, we are witnessing the country’s accelerated disintegration as a unified nation with its sovereignty intact. There is no question that an already politically volatile nation with scores of rather hostile and polarized elites is as good as a dismantled one.

Under no circumstances could you manage to pacify a nation staggering amid internal strife while instinctually working toward its friction and gradual disintegration at the same time.

 

The Mixture of my fear and Hope

Had it been for the misguided appetite of our irresponsible and maddened elites, Ethiopia would have turned into a vanity to date. I have to emphasize here that it is the strong social fabric and inter-communal bondage which have existed for ages that still maintain the country in its present state.

Let me hope and only hope that Ethiopia may stand as firm and unified as ever. If it is to fall apart as some reactionaries Covet or strongly desire, however, Amhara may not be the first to either initiate the process of or join in the course of its demise.

 

 

By Aklog Birara. Dr. 
[ Part 3 of 8}

The Horn of Africa is one of the most coveted geopolitical spaces on earth. Today, the Horn that con- sists of Ethiopia as its primary hub, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia is the epicenter of the “new Cold War.” Egypt exploits this “war” to maintain its hegemony over the Nile in general and the Abbay River (the Blue Nile) in particular. Ethiopia challenges Egypt’s outdated and colonial orthodoxy. The two countries have been competitors since time immemorial.

Egypt intends to continue its hegemony over the Nile River through alliances and proxy wars. On July 25, 2022, Egypt Daily News reported that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and newly elected Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud “discussed GERD dispute and the Red Sea security.” At about the same time and for the first time in years, the terrorist group Al-Shabab attacked Ethiopia.

It is critical to remember as a background that Somalia is a worn-torn, broken, and fractured country that still suffers from constant atrocities by Al-Shaba. So, the question I pose is “How in the world does the President of Somalia justify siding with Egypt at a time when his own country faces constant terrorist threats from Al-Shabab, Al-Qaeda and other extremist forces?”

The club of deaths and mayhem

Terrorists TPLF in the North, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in the South and northern Shoa, the Gambella Liberation Front and the Benishangul Peoples Liberation Movement in the North-west of Ethiopia, newly minted ethnic movements like Kimant and Agew groups in the Amhara region–all in concert and separately continue — to inflict pain and suffering on innocent Ethiopian civilians, especially babies, the unborn, girls, women, and the elderly.

Egypt’s ultimate strategic objective is to keep Ethiopia lawless, insecure, fractured, and poor. The need for water is not the sole objective. Egypt has numerous alternatives such as desalination, recycling, water conservation and exploitation of its immense and untapped aquifers. Keeping Ethiopia poor and conflict-ridden assures Egypt “hegemon” over the region.

 

Why is Benishangul-Gumuz a focal

Wikipedia describes the strategic importance of this regional state. “It shares a border with Sudan. It was previously known as region six.” The TPLF and its allies determined that it was imperative to alienate the huge and lucrative land mass called Metekel from the Amhara region and incorporate it into the newly formed Benishangul-Gumuz regional state. The TPLF regime left Amhara Indigenous people who constitute most residents exposed and vulnerable.

“Following the adoption of the 1995 constitution, the region was created from the westernmost portion of the Gojjam province (the part north of the Abay River), and the northwestern portion of the Wellega Province (the part south of the Abay). The name of the region comes from two peoples – Berta (also called Benishangul) and Gumuz.”

Metekel is strategic in two ways a) it sits on the most fertile land masses in Ethiopia and b) it is the heart of the Blue Nile River (Abbay). “The region is home to Africa’s largest hydroelectric power project (GERD). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) started generating electricity last month. It is situated in Metekel zone of the regional state.” The district called Dangur envelopes the former Metekel district. The TPLF, OLF and other ethnic parties alienated it from Gojjam/Amhara with the intent of a) depriving Amhara of fertile and irrigable lands and b) incapacitating Amhara from controlling the Abbay River (Blue Nile) that has enormous potential for hydroelectric generation and irrigation dams.

Intolerable killing fields and proxy

The killing fields of Ethiopia do not just happen because Ethiopians hate one another. Domestically ethnic elites and their foreign allies trigger, encourage and support these killings and displacements to

 

2 | THE ART OF DOMINANCE: CONSPIRACIES AND PLOTS AGAINST ETHIOPIA redress the past and re-write history. Externally, Egypt, the European Union and the United States operate with domestic operatives to exercise dominance over Ethiopia; and shape its political future. The killing fields in Benishangul-Gumuz, Oromia, northern Shoa, the Amhara region and around Addis Ababa are normalized and given legitimacy for a reason. The implicit moral arguments and justifications are that “revengeful acts” of Amhara and their likes are justified because they are intended to redress past oppression, subjugation, exploitation and “colonialism.” The most recent atrocities in Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia attest to this.

More than a hundred people have been killed by terrorists in Benishangul Gumuz. In June alone, more than 1,500 innocent civilians, most of them Amhara were slaughtered like chickens in Oromia. More than one hundred young people, most of them Amhara students were abducted by the OLA.

Behind recurrent killings and massive displacements of innocent civilians, most of them Amhara in Benishangul-Gumuz is also the intense contest for the Abbay River (the Blue Nile). Egypt contends wrongly that the GERD will deprive Egyptians and Sudanese (downstream peoples) of “Nile waters upon which they depend,” argues.” Andrew Korybko in an OPED posted on August 1, 2022. Like me, he opines that Egypt wishes to influence international public policy and pressure the UN Security Council again to justify military intervention by “weaponizing water” as a national security threat.

The late Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi initiated the dam in 2011. It is important to go back and trace the genesis of the dam though. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD’s) conceptual roots and preliminary designs are traceable to Emperor Haile Selassie’s valiant efforts in the 1950s and 1960s. The US Bureau of Reclamation was instrumental in surveying the Abbay River and offering a blueprint for future development. It took several decades for Ethiopia to initiate a mammoth project that is now near completion. Although not officially confirmed, Ethiopian sources report that the third filling of the GERD has occurred. Ethiopia notified Egypt and Sudan that the third filling in process.

3 | THE ART OF DOMINANCE: CONSPIRACIES AND PLOTS AGAINST ETHIOPIA I showed in Parts one and two of this commentary that Egypt leaves no stone unturned to abort the completion of the GERD on time and to prevent Ethiopia from harnessing and utilizing its transboundary rivers and improve the livelihoods of its increasing population and accelerate the modernization of its national economy.

Therefore, President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s visit to Egypt is deliberate and well planned. He is part and parcel of Egypt’s proxy war, albeit on the diplomatic front. Al- Sisi’s target is to entice Mahmoud and show the international community that a key Horn of African state that is not even a member of the Nile Basin supports Egypt’s case for “a binding agreement.”

Egypt’s Daily News said “During their meeting, Presidents Al-Sisi and Mahmoud affirmed their mutual interest in advancing bilateral cooperation and working together to consolidate security and stability in the Horn of Africa. During a joint press conference, Al-Sisi said that the discussions also touched on the developments of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue, and the two sides agreed on the danger of unilateral policies when undertaking projects on transboundary rivers.”

 

Egypt’s misrepresentation of the facts in the DOP

The reference “on the danger of unilateral policies when undertaking projects on transboundary rivers” is laughable and indefensible. Ethiopia has consistently adhered to the principles contained in the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DOP) that Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan signed. Article III of the DOP: Principle Not to Cause Significant Harm requires that “The Three Countries shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Where significant harm nevertheless is caused to one of the countries, the state whose use causes such harm shall, in the absence of an agreement to such use, take all appropriate measures in consultations with the affected state to eliminate or mitigate such harm and, where appropriate, to discuss the question of compensation.”

I do not find an iota of evidence that Egypt and Sudan are “harmed or will be harmed” by the filling, operation, or management of the GERD. Independent experts, including high Sudanese officials, offer technical, scientific, and hydrological evidence that the filling and operation of the GERD will “not cause significant harm to Egypt or Sudan.” For example, former Sudanese Minister of Irrigation Osman Atum confirmed in 2021 that the second filling of the GERD “will have no adverse impact on Sudan and Egypt.” The same is true for the third filling in 2022.

Article IX of the DOP : Principle of Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity” stipulates that “The three countries shall cooperate on the basis of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, mutual benefit and good faith in order to attain optimal utilization and adequate protection of the river.”

Egypt has not even once adhered to this principle. It has failed to negotiate in good faith. In December 2020, Egypt’s strategic ally Sudan took advantage of Ethiopia’s preoccupation with the civil war

 

4 | THE ART OF DOMINANCE: CONSPIRACIES AND PLOTS AGAINST ETHIOPIA triggered by the TPLF and attacked Ethiopia unprovoked. It annexed Ethiopian territory that it still occupies. In my view, this unprovoked attack nullified the principle of “territorial integrity” equally supported by the Charters, covenants and agreements of the UN and African Union.

 

Egypt constructed the mammoth Aswan High Dam located at the northern border between Egypt and Sudan. The river Nile feeds this dam. More than 86 percent of the waters of the Nile come from Ethiopia. The Abbay River (Blue Nile) is the primary source. The construction of this massive dam that accelerated Egypt’s modernization and improved the lives of Egyptians began in 1960. It was completed in 1968.

Egypt’s strategic partner, Sudan constructed the Sennar Dam on the Blue Nile about 320 kilometers southeast of Khartoum and 270 kilometers downstream of the Roseries Dam. In contrast to Egypt, the British, colonial power at the time started construction of the Sennar Dam in 1922 and completed it in 1935. Sennar was built with two objectives in mind a) to irrigate the land area called Gezira and b) to provide electricity to Khartoum.

In terms of objective a) irrigated lands boosted the production and productivity of cash crops such as cotton, beans, and wheat. Irrigated farming improved and transformed the livelihoods of the region’s population.

In 1952, Sudan constructed the Rosieres dam named after the town with the same name located on the Blue Nile in Blue Nile State, 550 kilometers from the capital Khartoum. The intent of this dam was to store water from the Blue Nile River to use for agricultural irrigation. This dam boosted Sennar Dam’s capacity and expanded winter cash crops for the Sudanese.

Neither Egypt nor Sudan sought advice from or consulted with Ethiopia or other Black African Nile River riparian states when they constructed their dams. This is the reason Egypt’s accusation of Ethiopia that its “unilateral policies when undertaking projects on transboundary rivers” is dangerous and poses a national security threat for Egypt and Sudan is self-serving, unfair, and unjust. Ethiopia has in fact done the exact opposite. It has adhered to the spirit and essence of the DOP. It has supplied more information on the GERD than asked. It has been transparent. It has committed itself not to “cause significant harm” to Egypt and Sudan.

The joint press statement by Presidents Al-Sisi and Mahmoud “stressing the imperative of adhering to the principle of cooperation and prior consultation with the riparian countries, to ensure no harm to any of the parties involved, in line with the relevant rules of international law, and then the need to reach without delay — a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD based on the statement issued by the UN Security Council in September 2021 in order to preserve regional security and stability” is patently opportunistic. It demands that Ethiopia abandons its sovereign rights.

 

 

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Egypt has never ever supported “regional security and stability” about the Horn of Africa for the past one hundred years. On the contrary, it supported Somali aggression against Ethiopia during the Dergue regime. It supported and still supports liberation fronts against Ethiopia. I feel strongly that it may have emboldened Al-Shabab to attack Ethiopia. It encouraged the military government of Sudan to attack Ethiopia unprovoked. There is an allegation that it granted $28 million to President Museveni and his team for “the training of TPLF combatants against Ethiopia.”

If Egypt is committed to anti-terrorism; then it must stop its proxy wars against Ethiopia by financing, equipping, and encouraging terrorist operatives. The government of Somalia must not be charmed by Egypt in its proxy wars against Ethiopia. This will not serve Somalia’s national security interests.

Ethiopia and Somalia share common borders, trade, and security. Ethiopia and not Egypt is home for millions of Somali Ethiopians. The Somali regional state and its people are part of Ethiopia’s rich mosaic of peoples and cultures.

 

The menu of tools that Egypt deploys

Egypt identifies and deploys all instruments bar none to undermine peace, stability, national unity, territorial integrity, human security, sustainable and equitable development in Ethiopia.

What does Ethiopia possess that makes it a prime target for continuous and debilitating proxy wars?

For this analysis, the answer is the Blue Nile. It is Egypt’s unreasonable demand that it must exercise hegemony over the Nile River in the 21st century. It opts to do this through proxy wars.

Wikipedia defines “A proxy war to be a war fought between groups of smaller countries that each represent the interests of other larger powers and may have help and support from them. In this instance, Egypt and its numerous Ethiopia-based recruits (TPLF, OLA. Al-Shabab), regional strategic or at minimum, close friends such as NBI countries with which Egypt has signed military agreements (Uganda, Rwanda), as well as Western strategic partners (the USA and EU) operate in concert to destabilize Ethiopia through proxy wars.

 

Why does Egypt revert to proxy wars rather than direct attacks?

Egypt has tried to invade and control Ethiopia in the past. Its efforts failed. Public record on Wikipedia informs us that “Whilst nominally a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire, Egypt had acted as a virtually independent state since Muhammad Ali’s seizure of power in 1805, eventually establishing an empire to its south in Sudan. Muhammad Ali’s grandson, Ismail Pasha, became Khedive in 1863, and sought to expand this burgeoning empire further southwards” into Sudan and sill further into Ethiopia.

 

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“After annexing Darfur in 1875, he turned his attention to Ethiopia. It was Ismail’s intention that Egypt forges a contiguous African empire that would both rival the empires of Europe and allow Egypt to escape the territorial ambitions of those same European great powers. In addition to expanding into modern-day Chad, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and Uganda, he wished to absorb within his empire the entirety of the Nile Valley, including Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile. Whilst Ethiopia’s history mirrored that of Egypt in many respects, with both having ancient, continuous civilizations home to both Muslims and Orthodox Christians, the rapid modernization of Egypt under Muhammad Ali, and Ismail’s own enormous modernizing projects, convinced the Khedive that war with Ethiopia would result in certain Egyptian victory. Amongst Egypt’s army were many European, and American officers, whose training and experience further strengthened Ismail’s confidence.

Meanwhile, King Yohannes IV became the King of Tigray in 1872 after defeating Tekle Giyorgis II in batt- le. He worked on modernizing his army, some of whom were trained by the British adventurer John Kirkham.”

 

In the 19th century, Egypt fought Ethiopia 16 times and lost.

Here I would like to underscore the coalition of “European and American military officers” that Khedive Ismail assembled against Emperor Yohannes’ Ethiopian army. This army routed Egypt’s contingent supported by Europeans and Americans.”

I recall that the late Prime Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi had said in response to Egyptian threats over the GERD that in the battle for the control of the Blue Nile that led to Egyptian aggression and defeat “No single Egyptian returned alive to tell the story of what happened.” It is virtually impossible for Egypt to invade and occupy Ethiopia.

This historical fact has relevance to the current proxy war. In the past as well as present Egypt conspires, plots, and executes aggression against Ethiopia in partnership with others. I underscore the fact that Egypt has never been a solo player. The two major battles Egypt and its partners fought and lost against Ethiopia illustrate this point.

 

1. The Battle of Gundet and Ethiopian

“The Egyptians under Arakil Bey and Danish Colonel Adolph Ahrendrup invaded from their coastal possessions in Massawa, in what is now Eritrea. Following some skirmishes, the armies of Yohannes and Ismail met at Gundet on the morning of 16 November 1875. Not only were the Egyptians vastly outnumbered, but they were also taken completely by surprise as they were marching through a narrow mountain pass. The mass of Ethiopian warriors sallied forth from their hiding places up the slope and swiftly charged down upon the shocked Egyptian columns, nullifying the latter’s advantage in firepower and causing many of the unenthusiastic fellahin soldiers to rout. This encounter ended in the

 

7 | THE ART OF DOMINANCE: CONSPIRACIES AND PLOTS AGAINST ETHIOPIA complete annihilation of the Egyptian expeditionary force led by Colonel Arrendrup and in the death of its commander.

Arrendrup’s expedition was hopelessly inadequate for the tasks he set out to do. It amounted to scarcely more than some 4,000 troops and had no cavalry. Its leaders were, apart from the already mentioned Danish artilleryman and Major Dennison, an American, Major Durholtz, a Swiss, late of the Papal army, and Major Rushdi Bey, a Turk. Arakal Bey, the young nephew of Nubar Pasha (the Christian Armenian Premier of the Khedive) joined the expedition and was killed in battle. About two thousand Egyptians perished with him and his two six-gun batteries and six rocket stands fell into the hands of the enemy.”

Despite defeat at Gundet, Egypt did not want to abandon its aggression. “The Egyptians withdrew to Massawa on the coast and then to Keren, garrisoned since 1872 by some 1,200 Egyptians. But Ismail Pasha could not leave the matter there, it was essential to regain the lost prestige. At all costs, his European creditors had to be impressed, and he set out on mobilizing a larger force for a second expedition that would make amends for the devastating and humiliating loss he had suffered at the hands of the Ethiopians at Gundet.”

 

2. The Battle of Gura and Ethiopian

“Following the botched invasion, the Egyptians again attempted conquest of Ethiopia, this time with an army of about 13,000 men. The forces of Ismail Pasha, now under Ratib Pasha, arrived at Massawa on 14 December 1875. By March, they had reached the plain of Gura and set up two forts, one in the Plains of Gura and the other at the Khaya Khor Mountain pass a few kilometers away. The Ethiopians, with a force of some 50,000 (of whom only about 15,000 could fight at one time due to battlefield layout engaged them on the 7 March 1875, and Ratib ordered just over 5,000 out of 7,700 men stationed at Fort Gura to leave the fort and engage the Ethiopians. This force was quickly surrounded by the Ethiopian advance guard, commanded by Ras Alula, and quickly broke. The Ethiopians then fell back, and, on the 10th of March, mounted a secondary attack on Fort Gura, which was repelled. The Ethiopian force dissolved the next day, and the devastated Egyptians soon withdrew.”

Egypt has since then ceased invading Ethiopia directly. However, it has never stopped conspiring, plotting and inciting proxy wars against Ethiopia. It gave substantial support to the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Front, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and numerous others. It encouraged and supported the government of Somalia to invade Ethiopia. It invited the newly elected President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a person who favors the TPLF and Egypt over Ethiopia to Cairo.

Former US Ambassador to Ethiopia Tibor Nagy is right. “Militarily, I do not think the Egyptians would be capable of going up into the Ethiopian highlands. Cairo can try! But this will be the end of negotiations

 

8 | THE ART OF DOMINANCE: CONSPIRACIES AND PLOTS AGAINST ETHIOPIA on the GERD forever.” They have tried and failed. Proxy war will equally prove to be a policy of another Egyptian bravado that will fail. For this, Ethiopians must overcome their ethnic divisions and stand up together as Ethiopians.

It is not hard for me to imagine who will come out victorious if the option of peaceful negotiation among the three Nile riparian nations—Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan end forever. In the long term, it is Ethiopia. It is this lack of foresight and insight for a peaceful resolution of the impasse that Presidents El-Sisi and Mohamud ignored completely in their joint press statement.

On July 25, 2022, Egyptian media reported that “Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi agreed with his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the need to reach a binding deal on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without delay.” They agreed that the “binding deal” on the GERD “should be based on the United Nations Security Council’s (UNSC) presidential statement in September last year to preserve regional security and stability.”

My take of a “binding agreement” is that Ethiopia would have to abandon its sovereign rights over Blue Nile waters and seek permission from Egypt to construct new hydropower and irrigation dams. Such an agreement will undermine Ethiopia’s national independence, sovereignty, and national security.

An ally of Egypt’s proxy war against Ethiopia, the newly elected President of Somalia, Mohamud, affirmed General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s obsessive and dangerous argument that Ethiopia’s “unilateral policies” undermine UN and international covenants and agreements on transboundary rivers. There was no reference to the Declaration of Principles (DOP) that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan signed in 2015 or to the impasse Egypt caused to frustrate peaceful negotiations under the auspices of the African Union or any attribution to Ethiopia’s principled and measured policy stance and or to expert opinions that there will not be “significant harm” to Egypt or Sudan or acknowledgement by the President of Somalia that the Blue Nile and the GERD are domestic and sovereign rights matters for Ethiopia.

Measured against the facts on the ground, Egypt’s bellicose attitude and militaristic approach, it is clear to me that, contrary to his predecessor, the new President of Somalia favors Egypt over Ethiopia. In fact, he favors the Arab world that supports Egypt about the GERD rather than Nile River riparian Sub-Saharan African nations that embrace the Nyerere doctrine.

Egypt’s divide and entice Black African state (s) policy and the covert actions it promotes in Africa in connection with the Nile is alive and kicking.

 

The third filling does not mean the end of the story.

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This is the reason for my argument that, despite dramatic changes in Africa and the global community (multipolar world), Egypt is still and will continue to be a mortal enemy of Ethiopia.

In summary, Egypt has a vast array of new tools. For sure Egyptian state tools and instruments of attack of Ethiopia have changed dramatically.

Egypt believes that it can weaken and fragment Ethiopia from within. This Egyptian policy entails the following and more:

• Deploy cyber-attacks on Ethiopian institutions and infrastructure.
• Spread fake news., for example, the GERD will collapse or flood Sudan.
• Entice religious frictions between and among Ethiopian Christians and Muslims.
• Flood the Ethiopian underground economy with foreign currencies in collaboration with domestic agents, profiteers, the TPLF, OLA and others, and fuel inflationary pressure.
• Identify, recruit, finance and send a broad spectrum of foreigners as tourists.

• Assign agents and hired hands specific tasks to spy or sabotage targets, monitor public sentiment, identify weaknesses, spread fake news, or recruit dependable allies.

• Elevate the narrative of irreconcilable differences among Ethiopia’s nations, nationalities, and peoples; fund, arm, finance and create national liberation fronts.

These and other Egyptian public policy instruments operate optimally when leveraged by Egypt through military agreements with the Horn of Africa and NBI countries such as Uganda and Sudan.

 

Part 4 of 8 will analyze the plausibility of the alleged training of thousands of TPLF combattants by Uganda.

With Justice for All and National Unity, Ethiopia Shall

August 5, 2022

 

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By Dr. Suleiman Walhad
August 5^th, 2022

The citizens of the Horn of Africa States have over the years been divided into fake nationalities and in the process, many died, starved, and migrated and many more are still struggling for senseless causes that only cause more harm to the populations the politicians proclaim to be serving. It is the main reason that the Horn of Africa States is on the rise to replace the old structures that have failed the region, and which are used by intruders from beyond as conduits to enter and exploit the resources of the region.

The Horn of Africa States citizens need to be citizens of a region that has to survive in this harsh world and each citizen is required to contribute to the general wellbeing of the region, much like a member of a relay race team assists his team members by doing his/her part well, so that the next team member adds on to his/her work or running and this eventually determines whether the team wins or not.

The current generation of the Horn of Africa States citizen has inherited only trouble, disunity, hunger, discords in the socio-cultural infrastructure and, indeed, underdevelopment from the generations that preceded it. It was those who supposedly freed the continent from European colonialism, but they had no plans and in fact functioned as if they were children who were given new toys to play with. They messed up the countries they were supposed to build and the societies they were supposed to develop, the educational systems they were supposed to improve and the health systems they were supposed to provide. The generation that followed which includes the writer and his peers ended up catching at straws like drowning persons. Some ran, many dying on the way in the deserts and oceans and in other countries of the world, others participated in the killing fields, and died or were maimed and still others continued to play the wrongly toned music.

Those leaders of the past other than hollow sentiments of fake nationalisms, had no plans and could not provide the necessary environments for the next generation to exploit the resources of the region and, in their turn, prepare greener opportunities for the next generation. Nearly seventy odd years of unnecessary suffering continues, and the Horn of African citizen is still being asked to sacrifice more and die for fake entities that has no meaning for anyone. In fact, the countries of the region are more known for their world wrenching problems of hunger, starvation, civil strives, terrorism, piracy, and political failures than any other thing.

When I was a younger man, I used to dream of what I could contribute to the township I grew up in. A small town with a small population but fortunately for me and many others, it did have schools left over from the old colonials and we thrived in those schools. They were, indeed, the foundation of our life processes throughout our careers. To contribute to this small town, now a bigger town with a much larger population, I initiated the concept of a university to be created there and discussed the matter with friends and colleagues at a time of extreme distress and wars in the region and they were surprised and, in fact, many of them questioned my mental state. But because of arduous work, good planning, focus, resilience, and patience and the noble cause the project represented, the university was eventually born as the first community owned regional university in the world and functions well today, producing young professionals in the fields of medicine and healthcare, engineering, business and administration, law, teaching, agriculture and others. The concept was copied from region to region throughout a large space of the Horn of Africa States and decentralization of education has now taken root in the region. In the past most educational institutions, and at least higher educational facilities were concentrated in the capital cities of the region, which is no longer the case.

Just like that university, many of my colleagues also question the concept of the Horn of Africa States and almost include it in the realm of impossibilities and I always ask, why should the Horn of Africa States region be broken down into parts that cannot work together? Why should the people of the Horn of Africa States region not be able to work together, intermingle with each other, travel to each other, trade with each other, join the many educational facilities available in the region, and why should they remain antagonistic to each other when there is no reason to be so?

In the piece on “The Horn of Africa States: A Geopolitical Case – Analysis” and dated February 5th, 2022, in Eurasia Review, I pointed out the importance of the Horn of Africa States as a major strategic zone, its political stature and historical justification for re-integration. The Article and many others we presented on the matter, highlight the need for the region to re-invigorate and re-invent itself, waking up from the long slumber, it is in. We understand many of the citizens of the region who grew up in the old and fake structures would still be questioning the concept of a new regional block involving countries that were at each other’s throat for some nearly seventy years. However, one should ask oneself, are the people that different, really? What have they benefitted from the old structures other than chaos, hunger, starvation, death and dispersal?

This is repetitive, but one must say it again and again so that it sinks into the skulls of some of my friends. Why shouldn’t a Mogadishu resident be able to move to Addis Ababa and set up shop there and vise versa? The same goes for a Djibouti fellow and an Asmara resident and the region would be the better for ease of travel, knowing each other, trading with each other and working together would be more beneficent for the people of the region. This would create a larger market for each of the citizens of the region and politics would be eased for ethnicity would be removed from the platform. It would be based on who can serve the people and the region better. In the initial stages, it does not have to be a complete fusion. A customs union, ease of travel, a controlled money management system, an organized legal system that oversees the region’s rule of law and justice and freedoms and a staged processed system that eventually paves the way for proper, legal and willing integration, would be the ideal format.

Perhaps it is good time to pick up another of my works on the matter, when I wrote on “The Horn of Africa States – A proposition” (Zehabesha – February 6^th, 2022) the following lines: “No success has ever been achieved, throughout the history of mankind, without pains, tribulations, and sufferings, but efforts must be managed well through adroitness and discipline and focus, taking into consideration not only one’s side of the story, but also the environment and all the other forces both near and far, arraigned against one.”

The Horn of Africa States proposition is not easy and would prick up many ears on the mention of it. But raising it, we must for it is the future of the region and much like the university I mentioned earlier, it is a useful proposition that would benefit the society of the region and even the neighbors who are scared of such an eventuality, all for the wrong reasons. No waters would stop from going downstream to Sudan and Egypt and no shipping will be held up in the chokepoint of Bab El Mandab and no piracy would disrupt the shipping and seaways of the region for the Horn of Africa States needs these as much as others do. On the contrary there would cheaper power generation and distribution not only for the region but also beyond, major ports and other infrastructures that not only serve the region but the rest of the African continent and food the people of the dry Arabian Peninsula. There would no hunger and/or starvation in the region anymore.

Relations of the people of the Horn of Africa States are neither complicated nor complex as they make them to be. The people of the Horn of Africa States are the same people ethnically, have been tolerant of each other throughout history, definitely much better than European relations before the Second World War and lived and traded with each other throughout human history. Why would it be different now, if deliberate decisions are made by the leadership of the region to install a new platform of peace, development, and stability?

It would need hard work, focus, resilience and determination to achieve the goal and the goalpost is not far. Many steps have already been taken and the populations know each other better than they were when they were enclosed. Somalis are the most travelled and they are in each of the four countries while Ethiopians are now spreading out from the interior regions to the coastal countries and Eritreans and Djiboutians are no less travelled than others. They travel and reside in each of the member countries. It is only the political wills and political rhetoric of the leaderships that may become blocking mantras, and this would be overcome over time.

Issues such as membership of other regional organizations are also highlighted as possible impediments to the creation of the Horn of Africa States regional block. IGAD, COMESA and others are mentioned. Why would memberships of such organizations be an impediment? The Horn of Africa States (“HAS”) would be a member of each organization that serves the purposes of HAS only and should there be any contradiction in such organizations with its goals, HAS would always take priority and HAS members should leave such organization for it does not serve the interests of the region.

It is perhaps good to conclude this article with another of my previous works on the subject – an Op-ed in Eurasia Review on June 14, 2021, where I noted: “Collective bargaining is the key, and the region should work together instead of working against each other, where those who do not have the interest of the region at heart can deploy their malevolence with ease. Collective bargaining is generally used by the European Union, and it has proved to be a successful tool. “Why shouldn’t the Horn of Africa be able to work together through building the proper organs for such common needs?” (“The Horn Of Africa States – OpEd – Eurasia Review”)

There are many factors that would truly threaten such organs to emerge, and these could be historical antagonisms, religious or even languages, but it takes wise men and women to manage the structural weaknesses that exist within the region. One often compares the benefits of such organs to the disadvantages and surely, it is clear as the sun in the sky that working together is more beneficial for the regional populace as opposed to each country working on its own. Let us welcome the “Horn of Africa States”, which we hope to emerge in the years ahead.” (“The Horn Of Africa States – OpEd – Eurasia Review”)

 

Dr. Suleiman Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].

 

By Dr. Suleiman Walhad
August 4^th, 2022

It is often said that countries and regions, and in fact empires collapse because of two major factors. The first is external aggression to which currently, the Horn of Africa States, as it presents itself, is vulnerable. It is strategically located and is coveted by many a nation as it straddles one of the main seaways of the world – the Red Sea, Bal El Mandeb, Gulf of Aden and the Somali Sea (northern Indian Ocean) and is the source of the Blue Nile and the Sobhat and Atbara rivers which provide most waters to Egypt and Sudan. The region also owns though not exploited as it should be, a huge hydrocarbon potential and in particular oil and gas both onshore and offshore. In the current world of today under the crisis of Ukraine and Taiwan, external competition and foreign quarrels, as being brought to the region, appear to be an ever more dangerous threat to its already suffering populations.

The other factor is internal chaos and decay. The Horn of Africa States consists of countries which house internally competing tribal and clan concoctions that can easily be exploited by any external aggressor as seems to be the case. The member countries of the region appear to be drifting apart, although in the recent past, there appeared to have been a rapprochement – The Somali/Ethiopian/Eritrean co-operation.  This appears to be withering away with the election of a new administration in Somalia. The latter is drifting aimlessly to join another region, the East Africa Community with which it shares little and for the wrong reasons. Somalia argues that this would provide a large market for Somali products, and this has no basis for there is no Somali product that the East Africa region does not have. Somali is far behind every other country in the East Africa country, for at least thirty years when Somalia was trying to find itself. It is barely recovering and alliance with its natural region, the Horn of Africa States with which it shares history and ethnicity would be better idea than joining the Swahili world.

Somalia made erred in the past through its membership of the dysfunctional Arab League and should not be in a hurry to join another similar block with which it shares little – no history, no ethnicity and in fact no religion or culture either, other than being together both in the African continent.

Aggression from both within and from without and from near and afar easily derail peace development and reconciliation in the region. Internal decay both political and economic and this tribal/clan competition for the meagre resources of the region is, in the main, paving the way for external aggression and it also provides hustlers and terrorists safe ground to breed and exploit.

It is where the leadership of the region seem to be failing for if they fail to work together and cooperate to face off both the internal and external aggressions, the region is bound to fall over the abyss. This would bring in, not only political-economic collapse but also socio-cultural erosion that could not be easily reversed by future generations. One setback should not be enough to derail a whole process which started earnestly, and the leadership of the region needs to be resilient and patient to withstand the forces arraigned against it. It is our belief that the region’s future is at stake. Would it be broken into a multitude of quarreling tribal/clan states that cannot be functional as states, but which would be minor vassals for much bigger nations? Would the region’s population be wiped out slowly through hunger, starvation, and disease? Would the region’s resources fall into the wrong hands to be exploited for the benefit of others and not for the population of the region?

The internal and external aggressors, sometimes working alone and sometimes working together seem to be reviving the old antagonisms and unnecessary divisions created over the past two centuries first by European colonialists and continued or kept alive by the pseudo-politicians of the region, who instead of leading their people to economic growth and peace, used them as fodder for the folly of internal and external wars. We are unfortunately now facing stark exploitation of false premises such as Eritrean/Ethiopian discords, Somalia/Ethiopian border clashes, Djibouti/Eritrean border disputes and so on. Who would be benefitting from these discords and troubles? The Horn of African States citizen should note this and not be led astray by false prophets supposedly working for them. It is perhaps time the region’s population, the Horn of African States citizens and leaders, took back the destiny of the region in their own hands. No one else is going to make it for them.

Some of the region’s leaders, perhaps, believe that they can install peace and development in the region through the help and assistance of others and accordingly keep begging others for help. What they are forgetting is that this is the world, the way it was always – the survival of the fittest. Help is often relative when it comes to countries or regions. What comes first is “what is in it for me!” in other words, countries and regions look for their interests first. The Horn of Africa States region is a region that offers many advantages and opportunities – a long coast and hence ports and other infrastructures, plenty of water, a growing young population and hence an extensive market and a strategic location. Why shouldn’t the leadership of the region take note of this and work together instead of competing among themselves and save their populations from a lot of miseries?

Foreign interventions can only help to a certain extent. It is on the onus of the region’s leadership, both governing and opposition groups, learned people and elders, religious people and social activists, to work towards building the initial peace building processes brick by brick within the region. A regional cooperation is the only platform. Each of the member countries of the SEED countries has its own internal problems, that often crosses borders into the others’ territories. It is why it is an absolute necessity to have the Horn of Africa regional block, economically integrated, people travelling and investing within the region with ease and negotiating with others from a strong collective bargaining position. Calling for non-regional external actors to create peace development processes in the region is a recipe for disaster.

We note many special envoys being appointed and sent to the region by many countries. The special envoys are not to create peace development and reconciliation in the region. They are being sent to protect the interests of their countries in this region, which fortunately is endowed with features many others covet. We are aware of the United States Envoy to the Horn of Africa States, Mike Hammar, was recently circulating in the region and countries like Egypt and the UAE were part and parcel of his itinerary. Both are Arab countries who have a lot of stakes in the region and more specifically Ethiopia which is the source of the Blue Nile. Instead of letting Ethiopia face alone whatever machinations the two countries and others would be cooking for Ethiopia, we believe it is on the onus of the total leadership of the Horn of Africa States region to be acting and working together collectively to face off those who may seek to harm the region directly or indirectly. Collective bargaining is better than individual bargaining anyway.

The region’s internal issues, mainly clan/tribal concoctions, would need to be settled by the governments of the region working together sincerely. Settlement of disputes and reconciliation does not mean that governments would be working together to suppress dissent. Human rights including but not limited to right to life should be protected and ingrained in the constitutions of the countries and governments should pioneer the rule of law and justice and enable the populations of the region abide by them. Adherence to justice, rule of law and fundamental rights and freedoms are the basics of life and there is where the governments of the region should not fail, to enable peace development and reconciliation take root in the Horn of Africa States.

Helping hands could then be extended when sincerity is first demonstrated by the region itself on how it wants to proceed into the future collectively. Countries work in blocks and there is no better demonstration of this than the European Union, which has over the years overcome many of the problems that face any regional block. The Horn of Africa States does not have to discover all the right processes. They already have been created, agreed upon and applied these process and mechanisms. All that the Horn of Africa States has to do is to borrow them and apply them in its own environment for all those that are possible and modify others for its own purposes.

Peace is a precious commodity, more precious than gold or diamonds and platinum. In fact, it is expensive, and many have paid their lives to achieve it. The governments of the region should know that it is in the best interest of the region and its populace to live in peace together so each subset or grouping can earn a better life than is currently the case where fear of wars and civil strives prevent from using their potential for creativity and innovation and production to expand the economic pie of the region.

“Not to unite is bad, not to want to unite is worse”

*Dr. Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].