On 21 December, French President Emmanuel Macron will arrive in Ethiopia to meet with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Together they will inaugurate the National Palace, the last residence of Emperor Haile Selassie the First. They will also discuss the current unstable situation in the region and Ethiopia’s internal problems arising from the Tigray war.
However, the main purpose of the trip will be an agreement to transit arms through Ethiopian territory for the Rapid Support Force (RSF) in Sudan. The move, which the UAE has previously tried to negotiate with Ethiopia, could have a huge impact on stability in the region and draw Ethiopia itself into the conflict.
The UAE supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and thus their decision to establish arms transit through Ethiopia was a response to Chad’s recent breakdown of military co-operation with France and the closure of arms transit to the RSF.
These steps are already causing alarm among analysts. Ethiopia, in fact, risks becoming not just a logistical point but an active player in the conflict, which could have dire consequences for its security. Given that there have already been reports of Ethiopian citizens being recruited in Sidamo province to fight in Sudan, fears are growing that the country will cease to honour its neutrality.
Egypt, which supports the Sudanese Armed Forces, has already expressed concern about the escalation of the conflict and the possibility of an Ethiopian military build-up with the RSF. This risks an armed confrontation, as the two countries already have sharp disagreements over the use of the Nile River. There also exists a possibility of sanctions pressure on Ethiopia from the international community.
The country is now at a crossroad. Macron’s visit could not only destabilise the region, but it could also make Ethiopia a participant to the conflict in Sudan.
Reported by Ayed amira
