Yonas Biru, PhD
In every society, social progress goes through different stages of governance, starting from tribal or clan societies and ultimately reaching governance by popular consent under the rubric of democratic principles. The spectrum constitutes systems of varying social order with increasing complexities of institutions, advanced levels of social cooperation, progressive centralization of power, and ensuing hierarchical social stratums.
The evolution is neither linear nor uniform. Overlaps between stages are possible, and not all social systems follow a strict typology of linear sequence, but there is a palpable arc of development. Where this arc is reversed, as in present-day Ethiopia, societies risk falling back into destructive forms of tribal politics, with consequences far greater than in their primitive tribal origins. Anthropologists and historians classify the stages of societal progress as follows, with the caveat that not all societies follow the exact sequence.
Stages of Governance
Tribal Societies: Egalitarian, tribe-based, small-scale hunters and gatherers or early agricultural societies. These societies are confined to bloodlines, and leadership is often informal and relegated to elders.
Chiefdoms: Tribal communities evolve into chiefdoms through population growth and agricultural advancements that produce surplus food, creating a need for structured resource management. As agriculture supported more people, villages grew into multi-village arrangements. Informal tribal structures became inadequate for resolving disputes or allocating resources, prompting the rise of hierarchies and centralized leadership under a chief.
Monarchical Systems: As populations expand further, kingdoms and feudal systems emerge, embedding authority in dynasties and land ownership. Chiefdoms consolidate under a king or monarch who presides over a formal government bureaucracy involving administrative organs, codified laws and courts, a standing army, and taxation. Allegiance shifts from kinship ties to broader territorial control.
Authoritarian or Bureaucratic States: Power shifts from monarchs toward a smaller ruling class of nobles, military leaders, or emerging political elites. While still non-democratic, these systems introduce the concept of a governing body or council, setting the stage for representative systems. Citizenship concepts emerge, laying a foundation for democracy.
Democracies: Broad participation in governance through voting, representation, or institutions like parliaments. Power is distributed across a wider population, with legal frameworks ensuring rights and accountability. Legitimacy derives from people’s consent, rule of law, and civic identity, embracing democratic ideals of citizenship, shared civic nationalism, and centralized enforcement of law.
This progression is not limited to political systems. It entails transformation in collective social psychology, involving a gradual shift from rigid, survivalist tribal mindsets to more flexible and pluralistic outlooks grounded in allegiance to civic institutions. It also results in the progressive development of conflict resolution mechanisms and lower transaction costs in economic exchanges. The confluence of advancing political systems, evolving social psychology, improved conflict resolution, and low economic transaction costs transforms societies from tribalism into modern democracies.
Evolution of Social Psychology
Tribal societies have deep-rooted instincts that prioritize survival of the tribe. In politics, this manifests as a fierce partisan mindset in which rival tribes are seen not as mere adversaries but as existential threats.
Under chiefdoms, social identities begin to expand beyond kinship. While tribal mindsets persist, broader affiliations take root through religion, ritual, and emerging social associations, fostering cooperation and supra-tribal allegiance.
In monarchies, collective psychology shifts again. Authority becomes institutionalized and legitimized through divine right or dynastic continuity. People internalize hierarchy and inequality as natural, and loyalty to the crown supersedes loyalty to tribe. A shared national identity emerges.
Autocracies consolidate this psychology of obedience but rely more on fear and control than tradition. Citizens may display outward conformity and loyalty, but often practice inward skepticism and self-censorship. The collective mindset is shaped less by kinship or faith and more by survival under centralized authority.
Conflict Resolution and Transaction CostAt the tribal level, dispute resolution is informal and fragile. The progression from small-scale tribal societies to organized democracies develops effective conflict resolution through independent judiciaries, police, and anti-corruption institutions that enforce law impartially.
The rule of law in democracies drastically reduces economic transaction costs, including the costs of searching, bargaining, monitoring, and enforcement. Trust in the rule of law enables large integrated markets, unlocking economies of scale and creating the bedrock for a sustainable economic development.
Ethiopia’s Regressive and Degenerative Trajectory
By making ethnic identity the primary basis for political organization, resource allocation, and power arbitration, the system incentivized ethnic competition. Political allegiance became defined by one’s ethnic group rather than shared national ideology, creating a regressive environment that bred intense ethnic conflict.
The problem is compounded by the return to tribalist psychology coupled with the organizational and violent capacity of a modern state, amplified by social and traditional media. The result is institutional regression, breakdown of law and order, and sharply rising economic transaction costs. Ethiopia is experiencing a reversal toward primitive social order governed by tribal instincts, unleashing the worst in human behavior. The wars in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo regions are fueled by these tribal and sectarian tensions.
Strategies to Reverse the Trend
Ethiopia has not dissolved into clan-based chiefdoms. It still maintains national currency, an official language, and bureaucratic structures. But legitimacy has eroded as politics is filtered through an ethnic lens, and civic allegiances are relegated to secondary status. In that sense, Ethiopia’s challenge is not the absence of modern institutions but that their spirit is captured by tribal sovereignties.
Instead of reducing transaction costs, the system raises them. Democracy’s promise—to create a space where Ethiopians interact as citizens rather than clansmen—is stymied by identity politics. Ethiopia’s dilemma, then, is not merely political but civilizational: Can it complete the journey from tribal loyalties to democratic institutions? The path forward requires not just constitutional blueprints but psychological, cultural and institutional transformation that makes citizens’ allegiance primarily to civic institutions.
Lessons from Other Nations
There are historical precedents showing breaking from tribal inertia is extraordinarily difficult but not impossible. Ghana built inclusive institutions after military rule. Botswana leveraged fair resource governance to transcend tribal politics. Rwanda and South Africa each constructed civic frameworks after devastating ethnic or racial divisions. Common to these successes are:
- National identity building (e.g., Nyerere’s promotion of Swahili in Tanzania).
- Shifting the center of the national political gravity from ethnic to civic institutions, mobilizing nationalist and citizen-based movements.
- Leadership with vision and courage to dismantle ethnic patronage, and a commitment to rule of law. This demands willingness to sacrifice short-term power for long-term civic nation-building.
- Strengthening law and order and fostering economic interdependence to reduce transaction costs and bind diverse groups.
Conclusion
Ethiopia today stands at a crossroads. It can either remain a federation of tribes competing for power and resources, or it can transform into a nation of citizens united by civic institutions and shared destiny. History teaches us that progress is possible, but only when leaders and societies alike choose citizenship over clan, law over patronage, and the future over the past.