By LJDemissie
October 7, 2025
Who speaks for Ethiopia’s economy?
Left: Zemedeneh Negatu, an accountant—weaponized by three consecutive regimes and their state media as a proxy economist for over fifteen years, dating back to the era of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. His role wasn’t to inform, but to overshadow Ethiopian real economists with genuine credentials and publicly scrutinized research—and to lure foreign investors —by projecting inflated GDP figures, showcasing selective success stories like Ethiopian Airlines, and positioning himself as a global dealmaker fluent in Western, Latin America, and Asia business language.
His media appearances were tailored to appeal to diaspora capital and international firms, not to disclose institutional realities. including the Ethiopian diaspora. His forecasts failed by as much as 275%—including his 2009 claim that “Ethiopia: From Bankrupt to Middle-Income” by 2025, lack peer-reviewed validation. He planted the seeds of his title/titles on social media around the mid-2000s—then watched them bloom through state-owned media, despite a trail of failed forecasts. These titles aren’t academically conferred, yet they’re paraded as if charisma can middle-class Ethiopians out of subsidized wheat, blackout schedules, and rationed tap water in nearly every home.
Right: The two zipped PhDs in the image represent Ethiopian economists with doctoral credentials—like Dr. Naser Nuru (PhD in Economics), Senior Researcher at the Ethiopian Economics Association, and Dr. Abule Mehare (PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics), Director of Partnership & Communication at the same institution. These are peer-reviewed analysts whose expertise and insight are routinely ignored by Prime Minister Abiy’s government and its institutional media—including Ethiopian News Agency, Fana Television, and EBC.
Their silence isn’t accidental; it’s deliberately enforced. Proxy economists like Zemedeneh dominate state-sponsored podiums and state-owned media with hyped forecasts and recycled strategic optimism, delivered with the charisma of a stage actor. Meanwhile, real economists—credentialed and competent—are systematically kept out of sight. The zipped mouths in the image represent their exclusion. They are sidelined by Prime Minister Abiy’s government, which insists the state isn’t corrupt—even as it alienates its own experts.
Credentialed Economists vs. Ethiopia State-owned Media-Endorsed Commentary
Credentialed economists like Getachew Asfaw and Professor Alemayehu Geda stand in stark contrast to Zemedeneh Negatu’s media-driven economic commentary:
Getachew Asfaw, a veteran planner of Ethiopia’s national economy, has authored four books and over 300 published articles—including in Ethiopian Reporter. After watching Zemedeneh’s April 5, 2025 interview on Fana Television, Getachew expressed shock that Zemedeneh—who never formally studied economics—continues to dominate public discourse on GDP and macroeconomic trends. “I love my country too,” Getachew said, “but I won’t give economic commentary just because of that.” His reaction was published in full in his April 13, 2025 article in Ethiopian Reporter:
“When I was watching the media—likely Fana Television—from home, I heard Zemedeneh, for the first time, say with his own mouth that he is not an economist. I was surprised,” wrote Getachew. “But when Zemedeneh without formal training in economics speaks about the national economy and gets amplified, it creates my silence. It denies me listeners. Zemedeneh’s commentary becomes my opportunity cost—the cost of not being heard.”
Meanwhile, Professor Alemayehu Geda—who teaches advanced macroeconomic theory at Addis Ababa University, as noted on his X profile, and has authored 164 scholarly publications with over 569,000 reads and 1,600 citations, according to ResearchGate—remains institutionally sidelined. His expertise spans macro modeling, development finance, and international trade across Eastern and Southern Africa, yet his voice is conspicuously absent from Ethiopia’s state-sponsored economic narrative.
While peer-reviewed economists like Alemayehu Geda and Getachew Asfaw are muted, Zemedeneh is amplified across Ethiopian state-owned media. His self-appointed title as Global Chairman of Fairfax Africa Fund and a frequent flyer award from Ethiopian Airlines are showcased as proxies for economic credibility on his Fana Television interview mentioned above—as if he directed, restructured, and sold the airline itself without a receipt and to an unnamed buyer. He did not direct or restructure Ethiopian Airlines—claims of having “sold” the airline remain unverified. He is an accountant not an economist and has never published a single peer-reviewed economic forecast. These symbols—his self-appointed title, the frequent flyer award, and the Empower Africa feature—are not evidence of policy impact; they are media artifacts, curated to substitute charisma for credentials.
Yet he lacks both a professional license and any peer-reviewed economic forecasts. These symbols are not evidence of policy impact; they are media artifacts, curated to substitute charisma for credentials.
Ethiopia’s $8.3B Export Revenue Is Real—but the story it tells is manufactured
Ethiopia’s $8.3 billion export revenue is real—but the way it’s being reported by institutions like the Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Planning and Development is misleading. The surge was driven by global price spikes in gold and coffee, not by domestic reforms or productivity gains. Between the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 fiscal years, gold prices rose from an average of $1,880 per ounce to a peak of $2,786.91 in October 2024—a 27% increase. Coffee followed suit, climbing from $2.83 per pound in 2023 to $3.12 in 2025, with retail prices spiking to $8.41 per pound by July.
These gains weren’t solely driven by domestic reforms—they were amplified by global price spikes. Ethiopia did produce more gold and coffee, yes—but the surge in export earnings came mostly because the world paid more for those same goods. Without a clear breakdown of export volume versus price, it’s impossible to tell how much of the $8.3B reflects real productivity versus inflated market rates.
Gold prices have indeed surged—reaching $3,906 per ounce in 2025, the highest in nearly fifty years and a 50% year-on-year jump. But Ethiopia’s windfall isn’t rooted in policy or production efficiency. It’s driven by global investor panic, monetary easing forecasts, and geopolitical instability. Zemedeneh’s celebratory framing amplifies price-driven gains while dodging the analytical reality: Ethiopia’s gold story isn’t just about what was mined—it’s about what the world paid.
Narrative Inflation, Proxy Economists, and the Risk to Public Trust
Yet President Taye Atske, Prime Minister Abiy’s government, and state media outlets—including Ethiopian News Agency, Fana Television, EBC, and Gazette Plus—continue to inflate the narrative. They amplify nominal gains while withholding key facts: price effects, trade deficits, and inflation-adjusted metrics.
Worse, they’ve sidelined real economists and outsourced economic credibility to a proxy: Zemedeneh Negatu—an accountant with no peer-reviewed forecasts, no institutional mandate, and a media-issued title: “Renowned Economist and Investment Advisor”—the latter without a license, in violation of Capital Market Authority laws.
This is not just Statistical theater. It becomes misinformation when context is omitted, and disinformation when charisma replaces evidence. And when this pattern is sustained by state media choreography, proxy economists, and unverified forecasts, it points to something deeper: a systemic issue of narrative inflation that undermines public trust.
Ethiopia’s corruption rating of 37 out of 100, ranking 99 out of 180 countries globally (Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index 2024), reflects significant perceived corruption. This context amplifies the risk that economic storytelling is not just misleading but part of a broader pattern PM Abiy’s leadership’s team, including Ahmed Shide, Fitsum Assefa, Eyob Tekalign, Mamo Mihretu, and Girma Birru, where transparency is sacrificed for power preservation.
If this continues, it won’t merely damage the regime’s credibility. It risks destabilizing Ethiopia’s economic future. The very act of weaponized economic storytelling, coupled with a corruption rating that places Ethiopia in the middle to upper range of global corruption, exposes the hollowness of PM Abiy’s repeated claim that the state is not corrupt—a rhetorical shield designed to mislead, not reform. The challenge is not just about numbers but about restoring trust through evidence-based governance.
The Official Narrative
President Taye Atske-Selassie address to Parliament on October 6, 2025, as reported by Fana Broadcasting Corporate and Birr Metrics, outlined Ethiopia’s macroeconomic performance for the 2024/25 fiscal year:
- 8% GDP growthin 2024/25
- $8.3 billion in export earnings, up 116%from the previous year
- Record industrial productivityat 65%, up from 59%
- Gold productionsurged nearly tenfold to 9 tons
- Agricultural outputrose from 2B to 1.57B quintals
- Cement productionincreased to 1M tons
- Loan disbursementreached 8B birr, 77% to the private sector
These are substantial achievements. But the framing deserves scrutiny.
Why the Export Claim Is a Half Truth
1. Price-Driven, Not Reform-Driven
- The export surge was powered by global commodity prices, especially gold and coffee.
- Ethiopia’s gold output rose dramatically, but the price per ouncealso soared—amplifying revenue without necessarily reflecting domestic value-add.
2. No Volume-Price Breakdown
- The $8.3B figure is nominal. There’s no breakdown of:
- Export volume vs. price effects
- Sectoral contributions to net earnings
- Real productivity gains vs. windfall margins
3. Selective Attribution
- The government credits “homegrown reforms,” but omits the role of external demand, currency depreciation, and price volatility
- Without inflation-adjusted metrics or peer-reviewed audits, the claim remains exaggerated and unverified
4. Amplification Without Accreditation
The $8.3 billion export surge is portrayed by state media—including Ethiopian News Agency, Fana Television, Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC), and The Ethiopian Press Agency (Gazette Plus)—as the direct result of Prime Minister Abiy’s economic reform agenda. But this narrative omits critical context: global commodity price spikes, lack of volume-price breakdown, and absence of peer-reviewed audits. It’s not just amplification—it’s attribution without accreditation.
Public economic discourse is totally shaped by proxy economists like Zemedeneh Negatu. Despite being an accountant with no peer-reviewed economic publications, Zemedeneh has been elevated by three consecutive regimes to serve as a PR-driven economist. His 2009 forecast—claiming Ethiopia’s GDP would reach $472 billion by 2024—was published in New African Magazine, a promotional outlet with no editorial transparency, peer review process, or institutional affiliation. The article, titled “From Bankrupt to Middle-Income”, was authored by Zemedeneh himself and presented as a column, not a scholarly analysis.
The magazine does not disclose its editorial board or methodological standards—making it a platform for spectacle, not scrutiny. Zemedeneh sold his $472 billion GDP forecast not through peer-reviewed analysis or institutional modeling, but through diaspora roadshows, televised interviews, and unchallenged media appearances. His claims were amplified by outlets like EBC, Fana Television, and Arts TV World, without volume-price breakdowns, inflation-adjusted metrics, or comparative benchmarks from the IMF or World Bank.
Zemedeneh didn’t just forecast Ethiopia’s future—he performed it. And when spectacle replaces scrutiny, the line between optimism and deception isn’t economic—it’s storytelling. His $472 billion GDP projection wasn’t an academic model—it was a narrative device, crafted to legitimize the TPLF-led EPRDF’s developmental agenda under Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. The forecast offered inflated numbers to validate a policy framework that lacked transparency, peer review, and institutional rigor. Today, the pattern persists: charisma substitutes for credibility, and media-issued titles replace institutional mandates.
Media Accountability
This article does not dispute the export figures. It calls for:
- Transparent reportingof causal factors—price vs. productivity
- Peer-reviewed economic analysis, not promotional spectacle
- Balanced attributionthat respects both reform efforts and global market forces
Inflating economic data or outsourcing credibility to media-appointed proxies like Zemedeneh may offer short-term narrative control—but it risks long-term institutional erosion. His hyped forecasts and theatrical presentations did not rescue the TPLF-led EPRDF regime; they merely prolonged its staged storyline while accelerating its structural collapse. Prime Minster Abiy Ahamed once said, by the time Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned in February 2018, Ethiopia was facing a severe liquidity crisis. The National Bank’s foreign currency reserves had dwindled to levels that could barely cover three months of import obligations—a threshold widely recognized as economic distress. Domestic liquidity was also strained, with state accounts unable to meet short-term obligations without external borrowing.
As of September 2025, the World Bank and IMF have officially declared Ethiopia to be in debt distress, citing unsustainable external obligations and a default on its Eurobond coupon payment. This stands in stark contrast to the celebratory $8.3 billion export narrative amplified by state media. Despite claims of reform-driven growth, Ethiopia’s liquidity crisis and limited foreign reserves expose the structural fragility behind the promotional messaging. Without urgent restructuring, the country risks deepening its financial crisis—underscoring the gap between media-driven tale and precise economic reality.
Constructive Path Forward
Ethiopia’s economic institutions must:
- Breakdown export databy volume, price, and sector
- Publish independent auditsand peer-reviewed forecasts
- Prioritize economists with institutional credentials and peer-reviewed research—like Dr. Naser Nuru and Dr. Abule Mehare—whose work reflects both rigor and relevance.
From Meles to Abiy: Zemedeneh’s Promotional Role in Ethiopia’s Economic Theater
This stands in stark contrast to proxy figures like Zemedeneh, an accountant whose forecasts lack scholarly validation and whose televised “macro-economic” commentaries often drift into tech folklore. In many segment labeled a macroeconomic discussion, he veered off to explain how Mark Zuckerberg built Facebook in his dorm room—as if GDP forecasting now requires a TED Talk on dormitory entrepreneurship. His media-issued title, “Renowned Economist,” functions more as narrative theater than economic analysis. And let’s be clear: the state isn’t relying on him out of ignorance—they’re using him deliberately, knowing full well he’s a charlatan who chases the spotlight, loves the camera and the mic, and avoids the spreadsheet.
Zemedeneh isn’t just wrong—he’s institutionally irrelevant. His forecasts belong in the archive of failed projections, not on national television. Zemedeneh isn’t used for his economic insight—he’s a messaging tool, chosen for his suits, ties, and publicity value. He’s eloquent, yes—but a careful listener can tell he’s performing, not informing. If Ethiopia’s economic future hinges on dorm-room anecdotes and media-issued titles, Prime Minister Abiy’s government isn’t crafting policy—it’s staging theater.
Let the record show: Zemedeneh’s rise wasn’t accidental—it was strategic. He was promoted—first by the TPLF-led EPRDF, now by the Prosperity Party—with full awareness of his role as a promotional figure. Let alone Ethiopia’s state-owned media, even Ethiopian Airlines tolerated his fabrications—including those he fed to Empower Africa. The platform published his claims without due diligence, amplifying his self-appointed role in directing and restructuring the airline, and in orchestrating its alleged sale without a receipt to an undisclosed buyer.
These falsehoods weren’t just ignored—they were rewarded. Zemedeneh was granted photo ops with the CEO Mesfin Tasew and CCO Lemma Yadecha, reinforcing a pattern where spectacle substitutes for scrutiny, and narrative theater replaces institutional accountability. The consequences are no longer speculative; they’re systemic. Economic storytelling must be rooted in evidence, not charisma. Otherwise, inflated narratives become structural liabilities—not just for the regime, but for Ethiopia’s future.
LJDemissie can be reached at LJDemissie@yahoo.com or @LJDemissie on X.