Bruke Lemma, Ph.D.
June 17, 2021
“We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men.” – George Orwell “The worst evils which mankind has ever had to endure were inflicted by bad governments.” – Ludwig von Mises
It has been now more than three years since Ethiopians breathed a deep sigh of relief upon witnessing – the long, long in coming and the very dearly paid for – demise of the most widely hated, the most corrupt, the most brutal and extremely despotic government of Ethiopia that was almost singularly controlled and led by the incredibly pig-headed criminal group – the TPLF.
In that, Oromo Democratic Party’s (ODP) Abiy Ahmed was elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia and Chairman of the EPRDF with the very crucial support from the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP) – pushing the stunned and momentarily disoriented TPLF off its perch, on the top of Ethiopian politics that it occupied for almost three decades, permanently!
Almost immediately after assuming power, Abiy Ahmed instituted and enacted a dazzling array of reforms and other measures that endeared him to a vast majority of Ethiopians. Some were so moved by these initial reforms, of course, with his implicit and explicit promises of more to come – they started believing that the Prime Minister was a prophet sent by god to rescue the country and its people from the death grip of the immeasurably monstrous criminal group, the TPLF.
However, reality intervened soon after and proved that the believe in the exalted agency of the Prime Minister to save the country and lead it to a state of nirvana was totally unwarranted – to say the least. In any case, the reforms that wetted Ethiopians’ appetite and raised their hopes for much more substantive changes to come stopped entirely – and as suddenly as they have started. Moreover, the Prime Minister, himself, disappeared for a while too, alarming many Ethiopians and driving the rumour mills overtime as to the reasons why and more.
Well, Abiy Ahmed eventually reappeared with very little explanations for his Houdini like disappearing act – though at the time, some speculated that it was some kind of calculated act to change the momentum and to curb expectations. We could also say that that was the exact time the real Abiy Ahmed surfaced – the initial razzle-dazzle of reforms, most of which have been reversed fully or partially since then anyway, were all nothing more than convoluted ploys to convince or confuse – in Shimeles Abdissa’s lingo of recent times.
While the exciting reformist Abiy Ahmed was certainly no more, after that Houdini like disappearing act of his, ever since, however, we have been graced not by one, but by two Abiy Ahmeds. We have the Abiy Ahmed who never ever gets tired of making speeches about Ethiopia in exalted and very hopeful terms. We have also this other Abiy Ahmed, who by his every act and deed supports and empowers radical Oromo ethno-nationalists – almost all of whom stand against anything and everything that he says in the speeches that he continually makes.
We had recently another one of these, now very tiresome, speeches in which the Prime Minister lectured us on the proper way to refer to ourselves as Ethiopians – specifically, are we people or peoples. We were expected, it seems, to be grateful, to jump for joy or something – because of an empty and exaggerated quibble with a single word in the Ethiopian Constitution. Well, that is ludicrous, the Ethiopian Constitution says peoples, therefore, it is peoples unless and until one makes changes to it – something that the Prime Minister repeatedly ruled out; that was, despite explicitly and implicitly expressing support for reform before that; going in circles.
In any case, the Ethiopian Constitution, designed by one of the nastiest group of people ever to walk on the face of the earth, the TPLF, has much more grave problems than simply its use of peoples instead of people. As such, the Constitution was something entirely put together with the express intention of fostering divisions, creating distrust among various ethnic groups and sowing perpetual conflicts and instabilities and more. Therefore, anyone with any human decency and goodwill at all will have the strongest revulsion and distaste for this document.
We all know that this Constitution is directly responsible for thousands of the young and the old including women and children as well as the disabled and the frail dying and continuing to die in the most inhuman, the most gruesome of ways. In addition, millions people have been dislocated all over the country and have been living in perpetual misery with very, very little or no aid at all coming their way – all of that and more, because of the so called ‘Constitution.’
Obviously, TPLF also knew that the Constitution would cause exactly what we have seen taking place for the last three years or more in almost every part of the country – that is, almost daily death and destructions and more. Therefore, when they were in power, they rarely, if ever, implemented any of its provisions, anywhere in the country, federal or state. Instead, the law of the land was not what was transcribed in the Ethiopian Constitution; it was, rather, whatever TPLF/EPRDF wanted it to be – and these then were implemented by use of force or other inducements.
Well, it was rather unwise to simply remove TPLF from power without at the same time taking serious steps to defuse the bombs that the group buried deep within the so called ‘Constitution’ and pre-set to go off upon its departure. Regrettably, however, TPLF was replaced by Abiy Ahmed, a very staunch defender of the Constitution and ethnic federalism, who rebuffed all calls for real reforms. What’s more, since coming to power, the Prime Minster has been consistently inept as well as callous in regard to public safety and security – that amplified the destructions caused by the pre-set bombs that have been going off every were in the country for most of the last three years.
In general, while the last three years of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership has been singularly disastrous for the country as whole, the determination and singularity of purpose with which the Prime Minister pursued the interests of the Oromo ethno nationalist elites has been a great boon to them. That and more shows, what we had in Ethiopia three years back was nothing more than changeover from one group of repulsive, extremely greedy, asinine ethno-nationalists to another group equally as repulsive, as greedy, as asinine – or, even more so.
We had TPLF that was hell-bent on creating and sustaining the hegemony of Tigrean ethno nationalist elites using the name of Tigrean masses – a vast majority of whom neither asked for nor have ever gained anything by the association. We have now ODP and its leader Abiy Ahmed equally as hell-bent on creating and sustaining the hegemony of Oromo ethno nationalist elites using the name of Oromo masses – again, a vast majority of whom neither asked for nor are ever likely to gain anything by the association.
What’s more, these two ethno nationalist groups have shown themselves to be mirror images of each other almost in every way. In that, TPLF had EPRDF and now Abiy Ahmed and his ODP, have minted ‘Prosperity Party’ (PP) – that serves exactly the same purpose as the EPRDF. As such, EPRDF was used by TPLF to control and oppress other ethnic groups using lackeys from those ethnic groups – PP is also being used to do the same by Abiy Ahmed and his ODP. Moreover, they both perpetuate the same myth of historical oppression and subjugation by Amhara – that they think entitles them to oppress and generally poorly treat Amhara people now. In that, while TPLF has left the scene after inflicting decades of pain and suffering on these people, we have Abiy Ahmed and his ODP who have been inflicting pain and sufferings on Amhara people for the last three years – but with scale, extent and reach multiple times that these things were under the TPLF.
In general, it is totally mindless and extremely absurd that these mostly poor farmers, eking out a living in the most difficult circumstances, continue to be labelled ‘oppressors’ and subjected to almost daily death, dislocations from their homes and villages in massive numbers along with destructions of the meagre properties that might have taken them years and years to acquire. What’s more, lacking any other option, to alleviate their sufferings, survivors are forced to appeal to the very same people who were and continue to be directly and indirectly responsible for orchestrating the mass killings and destructions and more in the first place. Of course, their appeal almost always falls on deaf ears; in that, Abiy Ahmed, whose startling lack of empathy and compassion is very disturbing, rarely, if ever, offers any real sympathy to these people – let alone actually doing something real or sustained to alleviate their sufferings.
We know now for certain that government and security forces, especially the Oromo special forces, have been directly and indirectly complicit in the death, destructions and dislocations of the Amhara people including those that took place in various parts of the Oromo region, in Benishangul-Gumuz, Metekel and other areas. In addition, the Prime Minister’s handpicked Oromo region leader, Shimeles Abdissa, was directly implicated in these killings – especially those that took place in Shashemene. Despite that, however, Shimeles Abdissa enjoys continued support and protection of the Prime Minister.
What’s more, the killings, destructions and dislocations of selected groups of people that has been going on for most of the last three years with overt and subvert government support have attracted very little attentions outside the country. In contrast, there has been massive worldwide attention and intense outcry about the multifaceted disaster in the Tigray region due to an extremely dumb war and its aftermath. It is now common knowledge that the war started after TPLF slaughtered large number of members of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) in their sleep and stole much of their weapons and equipment. However, TPLF lost the initial foray in very little to no time, mainly, thanks to the Amhara special forces, who came to the aid of the ENDF, fought against it brilliantly and stole its thunder.
The Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, consistently anything but pro Amhara, was so wowed by the bravery, the brilliance and the heroisms of the Amhara special forces – momentarily forgot himself and praised the force warmly and publicly. Still, that didn’t last long. He has been backtracking furiously ever since, working behind the scene, along with the extremist Oromo ethno-nationalists, his attack dogs such as Taye Dendea and the others, tirelessly demonising and facilitating the force to be demonised by others – certainly, with more to come.
In any case, after losing the conventional war, TPLF started gorilla campaign that has been going for the last few months now. TPLF and its supporters also launched a massive public relations war against Abiy Ahmed and his government. Here, the group was able to easily win, garnering massive global support and turning global public opinion to its own side. Still, all that was no surprise given the massive embezzled money and other resources that they have at their disposal as well as their long nurtured influential global connections and more.
Abiy Ahmed’s and his government’s primary preoccupation with promoting Oromo ethno nationalist elites interest relegating the interest of the country as a whole to some distant afterthought was also another important factor for the feeble response to TPLF’s and its supporter’s sophisticated propaganda assault. In fact, Abiy Ahmed and his ODP regard TPLF more of an ally than the Amhara special forces who fought for the country. Consequently, while they have expended little time and energy to counter TPLF’s and their supporter’s public relations campaign, they never ever miss an opportunity to attack the Amhara special forces whom they view as real or potential roadblock to Oromo ethno nationalist elite’s agenda.
That was also the thinking behind Abiy Ahmed government’s denial of appropriate weapons and other equipment to the Amhara special forces even before the war – among other things. In contrast, however, the Oromia special forces continue to receive lavish resources including advanced weapons and other equipment. Moreover, the force’s number continue to multiply through multiple intakes and graduations dwarfing now any such force in any part of the country including that of the Amhara special forces. Despite that, Oromia special force, who took no part in the war in Tigray, proven itself to be less than useless in protecting the peace and security in its region – that makes one wonder what is the rational for the continued existence of the force at all.
In general, there are compelling reasons against the existence of not only the Oromia special force – but that of all similar forces in the country. It is rather hypocritical, however, to coddle one Special force in one region but at the same time to rally against other special forces – be that the Amhara special forces or any other – operating in other regions and it must be condemned strongly. While there is that and many other aspects of Abiy Ahmed’s government that leave a strong bad tastes in one’s mouth – still the same, the regime was absolutely right in its initial response to the TPLF’s aggressions.
Well, that was also the initial position of the US – disapproval from them came later; and, that only because the conflict was taking longer than Abiy Ahmed’s government said it has been or would be completed. In that, we could reasonably venture to say that there would have been very little or no noise coming from any corner including from the US if the war was completely wrapped up in the three weeks Abiy Ahmed asserted it has been wrapped up and so on. We have now several controversies including humanitarian disasters involving millions, the involvement of Eritrean forces and more – all of which continue to be magnified by the lies, half-truths and complete fabrications of TPLF and its supporters.
Consequently, Biden Administration recently imposed Visa restriction on Ethiopian and Eritrean government officials as well as officials of TPLF and the Amhara special forces and others – on top of as yet unspecified restrictions on economic and security assistance to Ethiopia. These measures came after the US senate’s resolution, Resolution S.Res.97, calling on both the Government of Ethiopia and TPLF to cease all hostilities and more. In general, there are a number of elements of these measures that might not be reasonable or supportable – in that we must continue to stand with the Ethiopian government. Still, it would be imprudent to give a pass to Abiy Ahmed and his government whose multitude of delinquencies, bungling and other stupidities that brought the country to this point. We must take care, as Aldous Huxley said, not to make ourselves tools for those who are trying to “consolidate their tyranny by an appeal to patriotism.”
In any case, there has been a general absence of competent responses from the Ethiopian government who ceded almost all initiatives to TPLF and its supporters. Therefore, there was an urgent need for balancing things out, among other things, by articulating the deficiencies and the errors in the US’s current approach, countering TPLF and its supporter’s propaganda assault on the government and so on and so forth. Accordingly, a number of highly respected Ethiopian and other intellectuals have risen to the task and written and continue to write extensively respectfully and constructively arguing Ethiopia’s case, among other things, stressing the long held relations between the Us and Ethiopia and more. In contrast, there were also those continuously write incendiary provocative articles and incoherently scream in the social media and elsewhere, among other things, calling various US officials by this and that derogatory and disparaging names, inciting against the US flag and calling for its burning and more.
It is highly unlikely that these ill-conceived ravings of deranged self-appointed defenders of the country would produce anything positive for the country. It is absurd to believe that Ethiopia could afford to have the only super power in the world as its determined enemy – on top of everything else. They seem not to be deterred by that or anything else, however, so, they go on, day in day out, with their bombastic tirades about the US’s hypocrisies, its past relationship with the TPLF, its intention to destroy the country, though they don’t say exactly why, and more. We could say to these buffoons we weren’t born yesterday, their faulty grasp of things notwithstanding, we are already familiar with these things and more; we cannot wait for saints, we must try to get the best we could possibly get from the sinners we have. Still, we also need to learn to do without when necessary; and, for that, we need to have and project real strength which in turn requires us to do everything we could to beat the cancer within. It doesn’t do much to holler and scream at the flies on our faces, flies that are there only because they sense inner sickness, inner disintegration – while at the same time disregarding the cancer menacing us from within.
Anyway, when they are not busy calling US diplomats derogatory names and predicting the soon to come distractions of the US and more, they prattle about Ethiopian sovereignty. Sovereignty, yea, right. Sudan has been occupying a large chunk of Ethiopian territory for months now – it is reportedly about 60 or 70 kilometres inside and continuing to advance unchecked. Where is the outrage about that? Even the country’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, whose paramount responsibility it is to protect the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, never ever mentions it, not even in passing. What has he been doing instead? In addition to planting trees, building and inaugurating parks, making documentaries, he has also been very busy harassing and undermining overtly and covertly the Amhara special forces, the only force that might offer any resistance at all to Sudan’s invasion.
In that, it is also safe bet too to assume that the inclusion of the Amhara special forces in the US’s sanctions was behind the scene the machinations of Abiy Ahmed. We know for sure that Abiy Ahmed will not come to the defence of the Amhara special force who were, and still are, operating only within the areas that were historically Amhara’s before unilateral and forceful annexation by the TPLF – an argument that might have deterred the US
from including the force in its sanctions. Still, it is clearly a violation of Ethiopian sovereignty for the US to attempt to dictate where and when the country could use a purely local force – very difficult to complain about it though when the action might have been instigated by the country’s own Prime Minister.
In any case, while some of the US’s interests might be different from Ethiopia’s interest, there is absolutely no reason to believe that the US out to destroy Ethiopia as some seem to suggest. In contrast, the last three years have clearly demonstrated that the real threat to the country’s continued existence comes from within, specifically, the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, and his party ODP. In Abiy Ahmed we have someone who consistently behaves as if he is afflicted by Munchhausen Syndrome by Proxy (MSP). Individuals afflicted by MSP make those placed in their charge – children, including their own, the disabled, the old and frail and so on, ill on purpose and then seek treatment for them from medical professionals and others. Once those they have made ill recover after treatment, then, they will make them ill again, on purpose, and then, they seek treatment, going in cycles, again and again – until they are exposed or the victim dies or escapes.
What drives MSP suffers in all that is their irresistible need for empathy, affection and appreciation from medical professionals and others that they interact with – presenting themselves as someone caring, selfless and devoted. Similarly, Abiy Ahmed has also been getting a great deal of empathy and appreciation from some corners for having to confront so many difficult problems and so on – despite the fact, most, if not all, of these difficult problems are largely of his own making to begin with. Among other things, chaos, death, destructions and other miseries have been and continue to be pervasive in almost every part of the country and throughout Abiy Ahmed’s three years’ administration. We all know that almost all of those who have been and continue to be responsible for most of these problems are the very people appointed, protected and empowered by Abiy Ahmed himself.
We have now massive humanitarian crisis brewing in Tigray, massive hunger looming there and in many other parts of the country as well as diplomatic isolation, sanction and more – those are in addition to the already existing humanitarian disasters including the millions of dislocated people living in the most miserable condition imaginable. Here, Abiy Ahmed and his ODP, who, among other things, have been extremely reckless and greedy, unimaginative, narrow-minded and more are directly and indirectly responsible for most of these problems. In that, Abiy Ahmed also totally spurns any and all advice from those who are capable and willing to give him – including from world class Ethiopian intellectuals and widely respected and experienced statesmen and diplomats – unless they buy in or fit into his Oromo ethno nationalist agenda.
While catastrophic human made disasters including genocides and ethnic cleansing, war and more raging almost throughout the country – the country is also set to hold election in a few days. This is an election that has been cancelled and reinstated many times for a variety of reasons including Covid-19. Sensible leadership in the country, however, would have argued that the election should continue to be postponed until the country finds solutions, for the constitutional and structural problems fuelling the chaos, misery and distractions almost everywhere in the country, through other means and mechanisms. In that, among other things, much of the country could not take part in the election due to ongoing peace and security problems. Despite that and more, Abiy Ahmed is hell-bent on holding the election and claiming continued legitimacy afterwards.
As Albert Einstein said: “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” However, we have seen no new thinking, or new approach to governing the country and to bringing the country’s people together, to promote unity and shared purpose or towards anything else in Abiy Ahmed’s three years’ governing of the country. He has shown no courage at all for chartering a new path for the country, no attempt to be inclusive, creative, thoughtful in solving problems and more. What we had instead was his grim determination to carry on in the same manner as the previous TPLF/EPRDF regime but to do so for the exclusive benefit new groups – the Oromo ethno-nationalists’ elites and their lackeys.
Still, the takeover of almost everything by elites from a single ethnic group, the pervasive and the in your face corruptions, the still raging genocides and ethnic cleansings and distractions, especially those visited upon the Amhara people, have been multiple times greater and wider and so on than they ever were – some say, Abiy Ahmed and his ODP/PP have done more to rundown, undermine and damage the country in three years than TPLF/EPRDF have managed to do in almost three decades! Accordingly, some have characterised Abiy Ahmed and his ODP/PP as TPLF/EPRDF on acid.
It is a forgone conclusion now that Abiy Ahmed will declare himself winner of the upcoming election and claim mandate – after all, as they say, “Dictators are not in the business of allowing elections that could remove them from their thrones.” It is unreasonable to expect that we would see great improvements in the country’s situations after the election – as many seem to be anticipating. What is most likely, instead, is that Abiy Ahmed will continue to plunge the country into further chaos and turmoil that might cause precipitous full-on disintegration and more.
Therefore, it is essential to have constraints and continued pressures from within and outside the country that will force the Prime Minister to act in a manner that will preserve and protect the country and its people. We must appreciate, in that regard, the usefulness of US’s continued engagement with the country – even while continuing to argue against some of the elements of its demands and so on as some Ethiopian and other intellectuals have been doing. While focusing on external threats, we should not give a pass to our own leaders from whom the greater danger for the country comes from – leaders who have shown themselves to be constant gardeners, with extreme propensity to sow and nurture chaos and misery to advance their sectional objectives.
In particular, Abiy Ahmed, must be forced to accept and implement appropriate solutions for the country. One such solution, or a starting point to it, is that which was given in US senate’s Resolution, S.Res.97. It is important to have all-inclusive dialogues in order to charter a path forward for the country, as outlined in section 5 (C) of that resolution. We have a country whose citizens have no automatic right to live in peace and security in every part of the country that they chose to live and with equal right under the law – which is unlike no other in the world and which is what led to the death and distractions of a vast number of people.
Very simply, the continuation of that is not tolerable; and, therefore, it must be rectified; rectified urgently. And, as such, in holding the dialogues, as per section 5 (C) US senate’s Resolution, it would be reasonable to require all attendees to have a pre-commitment for that outcome – an outcome that guarantees every Ethiopian citizen’s automatic right to live in peace and security in every part of the country that they chose to live and with equal right under the law. Obviously, that requires reforming the Ethiopian Constitution and ethnic federalism – there are no other avenues for insuring lasting peace and security in the country except doing exactly that. A similar solution was also recommended recently by Genocide Watch, who specifically suggested removing Article 39 of the Constitution.
Still, there are some groups in the country who are against making these and other necessary changes – unfortunately, these also includes the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed. However, it is extremely ludicrous to be lamenting the current state of the country whereby death, destruction, dislocation continue to be unleashed upon a large number of people on the basis of their identities and in almost every part of the country including in Tigray region – while at the same time continuing to protect the very system that is driving these things.
We must use whatever pressure necessary to compel these groups, especially, the Prime Minister, to reconsider– they cannot reasonably argue to have continued right to harm a vast number of people, no one could. Accordingly, I for one, enthusiastically applaud and support any and all targeted application of strong pressures, the Visa sanctions on the Prime Minister and other officials including the future use of the Magnitsky Act and more. Still, one cannot support any sanctions and other measures that will affect the general population who have been and continue to suffer from the country’s continued maladministration.