The Fall of Assad and Russia’s Strategic Dilemma: Shifting from Syria to Libya”

December 18, 2024

Caleb T (Dr.)

Russia’s military presence in Syria, once a cornerstone of its strategy in the Middle East, faces significant uncertainty as the Syrian conflict evolves. Recent developments, including the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Russia’s increasing engagement in Libya, raise critical questions about the future of Russian military operations in the region. In this analysis, we will explore Russia’s strategic interests in both Syria and Libya, the factors driving a possible shift, and the implications of such a move.

Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russia has maintained a robust military presence in Syria since its intervention in 2015, playing a decisive role in helping Bashar al-Assad retain power. The two key bases supporting this presence are:

• Tartus Naval Base: Established in 1971, Tartus is Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean and holds strategic importance in countering NATO operations in the region. It is also a vital logistical hub for Russian naval activities in the Middle East and North Africa.
• Hmeimim Air Base: Located near Latakia, Hmeimim has served as a forward operating base for Russian air operations in Syria, as well as a logistical center for Russian activities across the broader African region.

Both bases have been crucial for projecting Russian power in the Mediterranean and supporting operations in Africa, particularly in the context of Russia’s involvement with paramilitary groups like the Wagner Group.

Changing Dynamics in Syria

The political landscape in Syria has shifted dramatically since Russia first intervened in the conflict. The Syrian rebels, previously pushed back by Russian airpower, have gained substantial ground and are now in a position of strength. By mid-December 2024, rebel groups effectively took control of Syria, putting Russia in an increasingly precarious situation.

Satellite imagery and reports from open-source investigators indicate that Russian military assets, including advanced air defense systems and attack helicopters, have been dismantled and moved out of Syria. In particular, the evacuation of personnel and equipment, including the loading of Antonov 124 cargo planes, signals a potential strategic withdrawal or relocation of Russian military assets. This movement has fueled speculation that Russia might abandon its bases in Syria, especially in the face of a new government led by factions opposed to Russian interests.

Libya: A Viable Alternative for Russia?

Libya, a country mired in instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, has become another focal point for Russian geopolitical interests. The country is divided between two main rival governments:

• The UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli in the west.
• The House of Representatives (HOR), based in the east, supported by warlord Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA).

Russia has supported Haftar for years, providing military assistance in exchange for the ability to build military infrastructure in Libya. This has allowed Russia to establish a presence in several key locations, including four air bases and a naval port, primarily in areas controlled by Haftar. These assets could potentially serve as a replacement for the bases in Syria if the situation there becomes untenable.

Is Libya a Viable Replacement for Syria?

Libya presents certain advantages for Russia. The geographical proximity of Libya to Africa—where Russia already has extensive operations—makes it a more convenient hub for resupplying forces in the region. Furthermore, the existence of Russian-controlled air bases in Libya, such as the AL Khadim base near Benghazi, could eventually rival the strategic significance of Syria’s Hmeimim base.

However, Libya’s instability poses significant risks. Unlike Syria, where Russia could rely on a relatively stable government under Assad’s control, Libya is fractured, and its two rival factions are locked in a fragile stalemate. The ongoing political crisis means that Russia’s foothold in Libya is less secure, and any change in the balance of power—such as a unity government emerging or Haftar losing control—could jeopardize Russia’s military assets. Additionally, if a unified Libyan government were to request the withdrawal of foreign troops, Russia could find itself in a similarly precarious position as it now faces in Syria.

Strategic Costs of Moving to Libya

There are several key challenges for Russia in shifting its military focus from Syria to Libya:

• Loss of Strategic Positioning in the Middle East: Syria’s location in the heart of the Middle East allowed Russia to exert influence over key regional actors, including Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraq, as well as to project power into the Mediterranean. In contrast, Libya’s location in North Africa offers fewer direct avenues for influencing Middle Eastern geopolitics.
• Logistical and Security Concerns: Syria’s stability, despite the ongoing conflict, provided Russia with a more predictable environment in which to operate. Libya, by contrast, remains highly unstable, and the political and security risks associated with maintaining a base there are significant.
• Airspace and Diplomatic Risks: For Russian military operations in Libya, air travel routes would require crossing Turkish airspace, putting Russian planes at the mercy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This is a significant risk that Russia did not face when operating in Syria, where it could bypass Turkey’s airspace.

Possible Scenarios and Future Prospects

There are two main scenarios that could unfold:

1. Russia Remains in Syria, but Under Less Comfortable Conditions: If Russia chooses to remain in Syria, it will likely face greater challenges in maintaining its bases. The shifting political dynamics and the reduced cooperation from the Syrian opposition could make it more expensive and laborious for Russia to sustain its military presence, but it might still opt to absorb these costs for the strategic value of staying in the region.
2. Russia Expands Its Presence in Libya: If Haftar agrees to grant Russia a more permanent and expanded military presence, Russia could establish a stronger foothold in Libya, potentially challenging NATO’s influence in the Mediterranean. However, this would also provoke opposition from NATO countries and could lead to covert sabotage operations or increased support for Libyan groups opposing Haftar’s regime.

Conclusion

Russia’s future military strategy in the Mediterranean and North Africa is in flux. The prospect of moving its forces from Syria to Libya is plausible but fraught with risks. While Libya offers certain logistical advantages, Syria’s strategic location and the long-standing nature of Russia’s involvement in the country make it difficult for Russia to simply abandon its bases there. As the political situation in both Syria and Libya continues to evolve, Russia will likely seek to balance its interests in both regions, potentially keeping a foothold in Syria while expanding its presence in Libya. However, any move away from Syria carries significant risks, especially given Libya’s volatility and the uncertain future of Haftar’s regime.

Ultimately, Russia’s success in maintaining its influence in the region will depend on its ability to navigate these complex geopolitical dynamics, balancing its presence in both Syria and Libya while adapting to an increasingly unstable environment.