We are in the most interesting time in Ethiopian political history

3 mins read

by Geresu Tufa

Ethiopian political discourses have been rigid, predictable, polarized and ideological for the last 60 years. Those who had political differences in 1970s are still bickering on it when they meet at every social event. Each and every political actor in Ethiopia has permanent enemy for decades. Ideological rigidity, polarization and zero-sum game have been defining character of Ethiopian politics.

However, over the last one year we are witnessing very interesting flexibility and alignment and realignment among political forces which had been traditionally antagonistic. I have just finished listening to Prof. Birhanu of G7A leader speech. Not going into the detailed content of his speech, I have observed that his speech too partially falls in this new trend of flexibility.
I said it is interesting time because, for example, for the first time an Oromo activist like myself and people like Prof. Mesfin Wolde-Mariamwish for the success of the same political actor. In spite of their differences, people are trying to communicate to each other soberly.

People who are optimist about the ongoing situation are increasingly growing. Unlike the political culture in the country, the support is coming from diverse (diversity in full dimension national group, age, gender, region) demographical social bases.

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This does not necessarily mean that all actors agree on the assessment of the current situation and expected results but despite that they all share the general optimism. I did not forget that there are also actors who still have vested interest from the status-quo and also those who are cautious and critical of the moment.

On the other hand, there are historical, contemporary and future issues that we are yet to agree upon. Most of issues are sensitive and controversial. So in that sense it is also the most dangerous times.

But our differences in expected results should not be a reason to lose this momentum. Therefore, we need responsible political and opinion leaders who have the grasp of the objective reality and carefully handle issues to reach at amicable end.

In this regard this is the most opportune time in recent history to start dialogue among all stake holders to craft better future. It is a time to start soberly, thinking, reflecting and discussing openly for better future.

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In 2016/2017 I asked if #BalackSwan phenomenon is possible in Ethiopian politics. It seems a real #BlackSwan phenomenon is underway.
I don’t think we can afford to miss this opportunity now.


  1. Yes it is that time which will go down in history as a watershed, pivotal time that will go either way. The politics of it must shape up to deal with all the ills that led it into brutal crackdowns where thousands lost their dear lives. The current environment whether it is sustainable to deliver what was promised from the ‘horses’ mouth or not it has the blood of those gallant Oromo and Amhara qeerroos as the mothership. That is the backdrop which cannot be photoshopped into dustbin or glossed over to a forgotten memory. And this young PM is it. He is it. If those who still carry the bitterness and the rage are rattled again, I am afraid all bets will be off. And that will not be funny. Not funny at all! Corruption has been on steroids and it is no secret that the perpetrators are the well connected to the power that be. It is a shame, a low down dirty shame to realize that the body that was created by the previous administration to combat grafts and associated corruption, itself comprises members who are themselves who at one time on another had soiled their sticky hands in various questionable(impossible) wealth accumulations over the years. So this new promising PM should dissolve the current one and create a new investigative body that will go after corruption especially illicit money laundering. He also must expand formal dialogue with all opposition groups including those fools who are currently camping out at Piccola Roma(Asmara), Al-Qahirah, Doha and at any stinking Wahhabi joint. His recently commenced dialogue with ODF is a good start. To facilitate this all opposition groups, as a precondition, should renounce violence in all its forms. We all know what violence leads to. Violence begets violence and we had seen it all what it has done to the old country in the 1970‘s and 1980’s. It wiped an entire generation of the cream puff of the crop and those who survived the mayhem are living with its horrid memories and therefore scarred for life. It has lost a generation created with so much resources, sweat and blood. Gone in just short 17 years! Then when we thought it has successfully regenerated itself, there came another wave of bloodshed that engulfed the country since 2014. Enough with violence! Enough, enough, enough!!!!

  2. ንዲህ ሆነ! በምስራቅ አፍሪካ ጉዳይ ጥልቅ ግንዛቤ እንዳለው የሚነገርለት ቁመተ አጭሩ አሜሪካዊ ዲፕሎማት ያማማቶ አዲስ አበባ መጣ፡፡
    የያማማቶ ዋና ትኩረት በደቡብ ሱዳን መሪዎች ላይ ስለሚጣለው ማዕቀብ የኢትዮጲያን መሪዎች ለማማከር ነበር፡፡ አያይዘውም ማዕቀብ የሚጣልባቸው መሪዎች በራሳቸው እና በቤተሰቦቻቸው ስም በውጪ ሀገር በሚገኙ ባንኮች የከፈቱትን አካውንትና ያስቀመጡትን የገንዘብ መጠን በቀላሉ ማወቅ እንደሚቻል ይገልፃሉ፡፡
    ይህን ግዜ ጠ/ሚ አብይ “ቆይ…ቆይ እኛ የተቸገርነው ይሄን አይደለም እንዴ?” በማለት በተመሣሣይ መንገድ የኢትዮጲያ ባለስልጣናት በየትኛው ሀገር የባንክ አካውንት እንዳላቸውና ያጠራቀሙትን የገንዘብ መጠን የሚያሳይ መረጃ በማሰባሰብ እንዲያግዟቸው ጥያቄ ያቀርባሉ፡፡ ያማማቶ ደግሞ እኔ ምን ገዶኝ በማለት የህወሓት/ኢህአዴግ ባለስልጣናትን ጉድ በCIA በኩል ጎልጉለው እንሆ በረከት ይሏቸዋል፡፡
    ከደሃው የኢትዮጲያ ህዝብ ላይ የተዘረፈው ብር በአንደኛ ደረጃ የሚገኘው በጀርመን ሀገር እንደሆነ ታወቀ፡፡ ከሚታወቁት ቱባ-ቱባ የህወሓት/ኢህአዴግ ባለስልጣናት በላይ ኤልክትሪክ ሃይል ማመንጫ ፕሮጀክቶች ዋና ሃላፊ የሆነችዋ ሴትዮ $180,000,000 ዶላር በውጪ ሀገር ባንክ ማስቀመጧ ሁሉም አስገርሟል፡፡ ይህቺ ጀማሪ ባለስልጣን 180 ሚሊዮን ዶላር ከዘረፈች ነባሮቹ ምን ያህል እንደሚዘርፉ መገመት ይቻላል፡፡

  3. ዳኒ፣
    ስለ ባንኮች አሠራር ሆነ ስለ አውሮጳ የምታውቅ አትመስልም። ያውም ጀርመኖች ይህን የሚያክል ገንዘብ በአንዲት ሴትዮ ስም ምንም ሳይጠይቁ ፈቀዱ ነው የምትለው? እስቲ ሌላ ሞክር እንጂ ይኸስ አልሆነልህም!

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