All the seemingly bold actions TPLF has been taking and its outward demonstration of confidence are signs of weaknesses. TPLF has been losing its power beginning of the Ethio-Eritreans war, followed by the split, recently its ‘foolish’ gesture of declaring 100% election victory, and now the way it has been handling the current popular revolt throughout the country.
TPLF has been chipped away slowly. Committed so many self-inflicting mistakes. Through the process it lost its teeth, and barely survive using old tricks that Ethiopians have known very well.
It is a big IF. If by chance, TPLF survives this current turmoil it has never faced before, it won’t come out stronger. It’ll remain vulnerable, wounded, and very dangerous animal that may desperately employ suicidal actions. That is why we must critically assess the situation, and play a proactive role. The surviving TPLF is too risky. We shouldn’t allow this scenario to come to picture under our watch.
The question now is, how can we capitalize on what is going on and turn it into a solid victory that ousts TPLF and its dirty ethnic based politics?
One option is internal movement within TPLF. If there are, at all, some bold and courageous Ethiopian TPLFites, history is watching. They must admit that their party failed and doesn’t have any leverage to lead the country any longer. Some powers, some knowingly while others ignorantly, got fooled when TPLF declared 100% elections win. And therefore, they endorsed it as a legitimate state.
Now, everything is fallen apart within a couple of months of that fake victory that the government doesn’t have any legal backing to continue to lead. It is over.
Do these internal TPLFites realize that they may still have a chance to redeem the country without further bloodshed? Are they willing to make history and end the national embracement, and give this great nation and its decent people another fair chance of a decent living? Do they apprehend that they can force the old guard to turn power of governance to a transitional government?
This is a narrow window for these TPLFites to make a bold choice and dispose those few corrupt elites, and side with the popular force.
Ready to be corrected and proven wrong, we have a slim chance for opposition parties to leverage the situation, take leadership, and make a smooth transition. TPLF has done so many damages not only on itself but also on any alternative force in the country. They are divided and incapacitated. I don’t blame them. They are rather bold and courageous to continue operate under brut force coming down on them from TPLF.
Opposition forces may have a chance to regroup and create synergy and create one unified front to tap into this once in a decade opportunity for the people of Ethiopia to enjoy democracy, justice, and the rule of law.
But, we have another hope to turn this crisis into opportunities. The people who are the foot soldiers and at the front lines may be able to raise fire tested leaders from within the movement to take leadership and negotiate for peaceful transition of power since TPLF failed utterly.
Another possibility is through Ethiopian community organizations, religious institutions, and the international community. These entities must play their role and answer to the duty call. They must step up to the plate and begin negotiating with all party, convince TPLF to give power in order to avoid further bloodshed and chaos. They may facilitate a transitional government consisted of all key stakeholders.
Last but not least, the Ethiopian Diaspora around the world can also play a critical role by creating unity of purpose. We should set aside our differences for a while and come together to provide diplomatic backing to the inside the country movement. The Diaspora and its community organizations can arrange demonstrations, lobbying, forums to discuss possible scenarios, and so on. This push from outside must aim at complimenting the inside the country movement.