Yonas Biru, PhD
I am Neither naive to believe Jawar’s political transformation at face value, nor unnecessarily critical of him. We have witnessed the Oromummaa theology wither away like fleeting shadows. Oromummaa as a belief system is in a comatose state. Only its hollow shell is left, housing its cult community like a broken ship taking water. We have also seen Fano grow like a wild grass. Despite its failure to develop a political strategy (thanks to its stupidified and hermitized intellectual class), its military success is keeping Oromo politicians sleepless at night.
These two phenomena are forcing the Oromo political class to scramble for a rafter boat. It is this dynamics that has birthed the “new and improved” Jawar. Members of the Oromo community who were critical of him over the last two years are jumping on his bandwagon. Where he takes them depends not on his motive but on the nation’s political dynamic. For those who see my analysis as naive about Jawar’s motive, I do not analyze motives. I analyze political dynamics as they play out.
My recent two articles triggered an array of reaction across the Ethiopian political spectrum. Let me start with two such reactions. The first was from an Ethiopianist camp and the second from someone that I consider as an Amhara nationalist.
The Ethiopianist texted me a 240 words message. The gist of his message is that I am psychologically and culturally detached from Ethiopia and that makes some of my analyses impractical in the Ethiopian political space.
He wrote: “I want you to reflect on your own shortcomings… Your readings into Ethiopian history, your understanding of the Ethiopian psychology and philosophy may need your attention. It is a critical time and your voice is important, but on the other hand your country will benefit more if you cut your time on social media and concentrate on understanding your country and people. Start reading Amharic books, and read Jawar’s book in its original.”
The Amhara nationalist agreed with the Ethiopianist about my lack of understanding of the Ethiopian psyche, but reached to a starkly different conclusion. He said my analysis is based on a western mindset and will not be suitable to analyze the Oromummaa politics. He believed the dichotomy I presented between Jawar the realist and Jawar the opportunist is misguided. He sees only one Jawar: An opportunist and a calculating Oromo tribalist.
My view is that both my Ethiopianist and Amhara nationalist friends are wrong. I know the Ethiopian social psychology and political culture well. What we need is not to allow ourselves to be prisoners of the Ethiopian psyche and screwed up culture. Our psychology and culture የሚቀብራቸው አጥተው እንጂ ከሞቱ ሰንብተዋል. The political stench we are suffering from is the result of their decomposing bodies. I am talking about the Gadda culture of Oromo and the hermitized culture of Amhara and Tigray.
I do not want to study them any more than I already know and have written about. I sure do not want to adopt them. Since the issue at hand is Jawar’s transformation, let me explain again why the political and social dynamics are forcing Oromo elites to change their political position.
More than anybody Jawar understands the damage that Oromummaa has wrecked in the Oromo tribal land. The Oromo tribal land is suffering more than any other region, barring Tigray. It is small wonder the architects and custodians of the tribal constitution are the two very tribal lands suffering under it the most. Jawar also understands the Oromummaaization and Gadaaization of the Oromo tribal land has dumbified and ደነዝified the young Oromo generation.
In a twitter message on May 25, 2022, Shimeles Abdissa wrote: “The Future of Ethiopia is Gadda. Gada system is a holistic and deep philosophy with thousands of years practice in human life and strong institutions. We are working to use this rich social capital and philosophy to transform our society in all aspects.” In a different speech, he said his government is spending 2 billion Birrs to resurrect the 16th century Gadda system to administer Ethiopia in the 21st century.
Once again, in a 2023 speech to Oromo-PP youth league, President Shimelis made Oromummaa’s enemies and the imagined Gadaa castle in the air clear: ”የአዲስ አበባ (ፊንፊኔ) ከተማን ከበናት የሸገር ከተማን ለምንድነው የገነባነው? በስትራቴጂ አስበንበት ነው እየገነባን ያለነው፡፡ ጠላቶቻችን ምን እየሠራን እንደሆነ ገብቷቸዋል፡፡ አንዳንድ የእኛ ሞኝ ግን አልገባውም፡፡ እመኑኝ! እናንተ እድሜያችሁ ወጣቶች ናችሁ፡፡ በመጪዎቹ 30 እና 40 ዓመታት የኢትዮጵያ ንግድ የሚባለው፣ የኢትዮጵያ ጂዲፒ የሚባለው ሸገር፣ ቢሾፍቱ፣ የገዳ ስፔሺያል የኢኮኖሚ ዞን እና አዳማ ይሆናሉ፡፡ ገዳ ስፔሺያል የኢኮኖሚ ዞን የአፍሪካ ቁጥር አንድ ጂዲፒ እንደሚሆን አነዳች ጥርጣሬ የለኝም፡፡ ይህም በቀጣዮቹ 30 እና 40 ዓመታት እውን የሚሆን ነው፡፡”
We know the “enemy” Shimelis talked is primarily the Amhara and what the Oromummaa cult consider Amharized tribes such as Gurage and Gammo. We have seen over 500,000 people forcefully displaced from Sheger. We have seen people hacked to death and their bodies thrown around like a waste. Jawar and company know if the Oromummaaization and Gadaaization of Oromummaa continues, three things will happen: (1) Asafa Jalata will succeed in his campaign to oust Islam and Christianity out of the Oromo tribal land, turning the region into land of the savages; (2) the rural areas of the Oromo tribal land will degenerate closer to the hunters and gatherers period of human experience, and (3) its cities will look like ሺሻ ቤት to use Jawar’s brilliant explanation.
Let us look at what the Oromummaaization and Gadaaization of the Oromo tribal land has produced. Let us use education as an example. Tribalism is primitive and degenerative by nature. It brings savagery out of perfectly fine human beings. That much has been recorded throughout human history.
Professor Berhanu Nega’s (Ethiopia’s Minister of Education) contribution to human development is providing evidence that tribalism stupidifies and ደነዝifies. In 2022, nearly 900,000 Ethiopian high school students took college entrance standardized tests and only 3.3 percent got a passing grade of 50/100 or better and qualified to enter college as freshmen.
In 2022, Professor Berhanu made it difficult to cheat in national university qualification exams. The results bore witness to the systemic stupidification and ደነዝfication of the entire next generation, most particularly in the Oromo tribal land.
The 3.3 percent passing rate of the standardized university entrance tests is not the most important story. Producing averages conceal data points that are critical to inform policy. The most important stories are in the details.
The Oromo and Amhara data are particularly important because together they represent more than 50 percent of the population. In addition, since the Oromo tribal land has become the epicenter of tribal extremism, its performance compared to other tribal homelands can shed light on the vagaries of tribalism in the future generation. To make an objective assessment we need to see two separate reports by regions.
Let us see how Oromo and Amhara fare in preparing their students for the next generation. According to the 2022 high school leaving standardized test results, the top 5 best performing schools in the nation were: One in Addis (Kotebe); three in Amhara (Dessie boarding, Bahirdar STEM, and Gonder Community College) and one in Oromo (Oda boarding school).
The average scores for all subjects by regions are as follows. Addis Ababa (38.46%), Harari (32.88), Dire Dawa (31.42%), Amhara (30.37%), Sidama (28.34), Southern People (28.17), and Oromo (27.96). Areas who scored better than the national 3.3% average are: Addis (19.8%), Harari (10.5%), Dire Dawa (6.7%), and Amhara (3.6%). Oromo is below the national average (2.0%).
Another data point is that in natural science there were 263 students who scored 600 or better. Of which, 117 were from Addis, 70 from Amhara and 51 from Oromo. Though according to the government’s population census Amhara is supposed to have millions of people less than Oromo, Amhara has 35 percent more students performing better in natural science than Oromo. It is safe to assume the school age to total population ratios in the Amhara and Oromo tribal lands are reasonably similar.
Though specific data was not provided for social science, the top performing areas in terms of numbers of students scoring high marks were Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Harar, Amhara, and Oromia. Once again, Oromo is behind Amhara. In every publicly available data point Oromo performed worse than Amhara.
This should not come as a surprise when the aspiration of the Oromo regional government was to use a 16th century Gadaa system to prepare the Oromo youth to the 21st century.
In 2023, I wrote an article exposing performance differences in educational achievement, showing Oromo is at the bottom. The government stopped publishing regional data to hide the shameful ደነዝification of the Oromo youth.
In the developing world such as the US and UK, talent is the selection criteria both for public and corporate positions. Let us look at the public sector first. Kemi Badenoch, a first-generation British Nigerian is the leader of the conservative party in the UK. She is destined to be the first black Prime Minister. One of the former Prime Ministers of the UK was a first generation Indian. A first-generation British Zambian is head of government in Wales, in the United Kingdom.
In the 2024 US presidential elections, there were three first generation Americans of Indian origin running for the highest office. One was the democratic nominee for the office who came close to be the first woman and Indian-Jamaican-American US president. The wife of the vice president elect is first generation American Indian.
The same is the case in the corporate world. Elon Musk, the CEO of many technological enterprises is an immigrant from South Africa. Sundar Pichai born and raised in India and an immigrant to the US is the CEO of Google. The same is the case with the CEO of Microsoft. Satya Nadella was born and raised in India and came to the US as an immigrant. 55% of the US’s $1 billion startup companies had at least one immigrant founder.
In Ethiopia, the idiotic political class is shackled to a primitive tribal system. Fano cannot unify itself, because Gojam Fanos will not accept a Gonderie Fano as a leader and vice versa. In Oromo, a University in Wellega will not accept someone from Arsi as its president. This is what tribalism means.
By tribal I mean backward, savage and barbaric, just like Europeans describe us. Now the issue Jawar faces is to first free himself form the bondage of Oromummaa and free his community from it. Faking it will not cut it.
Regarding the statement that Fano grows like wild grass, I would challenge this characterization. Fano has been portrayed by some as an uncontrollable and spontaneous phenomenon. However, the reality is more nuanced. While it is true that there are elements of the Fano movement that have gained momentum & lost in recent years, attributing its growth to sheer “wildness” or instability does not reflect the true picture. The movement has roots in the political and cultural realities of the region, and its growth is largely shaped by the specific socio-political context. The description of Fano as “wild grass” doesn’t account for the deliberate and strategic nature of the movement, and while its momentum may have slowed due to various challenges, its existence and strength on the ground are still very much intact.
Whether we like it or not, whatever this young man has been doing has made him filthy rich beyond imagination, a multi millionaire by just talking. Now he has put his writing skills to work to ice the cake on his already full coffer. He has the financial capacity to live comfortably any place of his choice. They told us he lives in Kenya but he does not live at refugee camps but rather in an affluent neighborhood in Nairobi. Usually money talks, right? But in this case, talk makes money talk. Or rather talk makes money come home by the shovel.