Yonas Biru, PhD
There are two factors that can destabilize Ethiopia and potentially lead to its disintegration.
The First is Economic Deterioration. This has two primary factors: (1) chronic foreign exchange shortage, and (2) restive unemployed youth that are polarized and agitated by tribal conflicts.
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The Ethiopian government has little to no control on either factor in the short term. The US, EU, World Bank and IMF have far more control over the first factor. If they impose sanctions as they have done to Sudan, and starve Ethiopia of foreign exchange and budget support, Ethiopia will be in big trouble within three to four months. No money to import fuel. Transportation will come to a near standstill. No money to import badly needed input to manufactured goods with detrimental implications on employment. Also no budget support to pay for government services. This will create a disaster.
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The Ethiopian government has little control over exchange-rate shortage in the short term. The same is true with the unemployment problem. It takes time to build the economic base to create jobs. In the short to medium term countries such as Ethiopia cannot survive without foreign aid. Your “We are rich spiritually and culturally. We have water resources and gold” and all the other crap associated with “Axum This, Adwa That and Lalibela ኡኡ” will do us nothing. Not a thing. Get over it.
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If you closely study the limited sanction the US has imposed on Ethiopia, to date, (in terms of delaying the disbursement of already approved funds), they have little impact on critical economic areas. One was money allocated for fighting human trafficking. More recently, it is money to help finance the privatization of Tele. The US has made sure it will not contribute to the destabilization of Ethiopia. That is why they bluff but stop short when it comes to sanctioning Ethiopia, but acted at the speed of light to sanction Sudan.
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The Second source of instability that can potentially disintegrate Ethiopia is political friction that the tribal constitution has triggered. Here the factors are Team Jawar, Ortho-Amhara extremists led by a certain Shaleka, Shene OLA, TPLF, among other tribal forces.
All of the above but small groups among them who know how to connive people. They are masters in how to feed on the raw emotion of the gullible youth in those three regions. They cry rivers wailing about your hurt and abject poverty until they wrestle away the mantle of political power expending your Allah Blessed lives. That is until they enter the palace. Then they will forcibly move you out of your ancestral homes to make way for their friends’ housing and farm projects. They will throw a few bones at you to calm you away but if you keep complaining you will find yourself converted into a fertilizer. You wouldn’t even what hit you! Or you will be screaming in agonizing pain all day/night long being worked off at some out of sight dungeons. Or you will just disappear without a trace. That is called solving by a process of elimination.
Make that: All of the above except the USA but small groups among them who know how to connive people.
Trust me, the world is in a spine bending spin. What you hear is not what you see. What you observe is not what is fanned across the globe. People are tied up with false narrative and an ending electronics toxic it is getting harder to sort out what is real and fake. This world is at a point where people are so desensitized they have very little feeling for the suffering of others. The question of who is destabilizing Ethiopia is an excellent one. The answer is pretty simple. The number one cause of our pain is ourselves. Period. We are so opinionated and divided we are hard to govern. Renegade groups, ethnic sympathizers and advocators are the main cause of destabilization in Ethiopia. Add to these forces the Arabs and Western countries who talk about peace and tranquility in front of the camera and carry out sabotage acts by assisting home grown sadistic groups the likes TPLF and OLF, one can clearly see the cause and effect of the reason as to why the Ethiopian people are suffering for so long.
To sum up my comment, it is not only the Amharas, Tigreans or Oromos that are causing the subversion. Everyone is involved directly or indirectly knowingly or unknowingly to cause harm to each other and to the nation as whole. The pile of trash through social media and other news outlets is a testament to this demented thinking process that is self centered and ethnically winding and twisting path. Therefore, we are the main cause of the destabilization of Ethiopia. The rest is secondary causes and riding on our weakness to suffice their objectives.
Humble Comment: 29 Oct 2021
QUOTE:”Therefore, we are the main cause of the destabilization of Ethiopia”. UNQUOTE
How true. It applies to the entire Continent of Black Africa. We are our own enemies. Look around how African leaders behave — it is embarrassing, shameful portraying the characteristic of BLACK AFRICANS in its entirety..We cannot deny what we see and simply brash-off what we hear. In conclusion WE AFRICANS are own enemies. Even God, it seems, has no interest in us. THE END