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Is Ethiopia Headed Towards a Civil War?


Facing the abyss of interethnic civil war, Ethiopia today is on the brink of state failure. Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn shocked the country with his abrupt resignation as head of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition last month, designed to subdue simmering unrest.

While the government scrambles to figure out who will succeed him, this East African country has levied a state of emergency for the next six months, amid a wave of anti-government protests that have rocked it on and off for the past three years. This is the second time in just two years that Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency, which prohibits protests and restricts publications that could be deemed to incite violence.


Ethiopia is the second most populous country in the African continent after Nigeria, and has around 105 million people and more than 80 ethnic groups, the two largest of which are the Oromo and the Amhara. While these two groups make up around two-thirds of all Ethiopians, it is the Tigrayans, who account for a meager 6% of the population, that dictate politics and the security forces. For years Hailemariam Desalegn has grappled with a tide of dissatisfaction from the Oromos and the Amharas, who have felt economically sidelined and politically persecuted by the government.

Earlier this year, in a desperate attempt to relieve the unfolding pressure on the regime and create a sense of “national reconciliation,” the government rushed to free over 6,000 prisoners, mostly incarcerated on political grounds, including the Oromo opposition leader Merera Gudina. In light of mounting upheaval and with political tensions at a knife-edge, it has also shut down a jail accused of torturing its prisoners.

International efforts to quell the latest surge in violence has bordered on the negligent but, amidst growing concern over human rights abuses, pressure has mounted on Ethiopia’s central government. Desalegn’s departure marks the first change in leadership in Ethiopia that hasn’t been triggered by revolution or death of a leader, suggesting the government is making concessions after wrestling with deep wounds among some of the nation’s biggest ethnic groups. As the biggest troop contributor in the fight against terrorist group al Shabaab in Somalia, the United States considers Ethiopia a crucial ally in the fight against Islamist militancy. Fearing that draconian anti-protest bans will cripple the public sphere, it has condemned the decision to enforce a state of emergency.

The EPRDF has been in power for nearly three decades, prior to which Ethiopia was ruled by the ruthless military leader Mengistu Haile Mariam, and during which time the country faced civil war, famine, and a series of unsuccessful socialist development policies. Since 1991, Ethiopia’s political situation has been somewhat stable, and rising living standards have followed.

Ethiopia’s economic growth has been largely due to the government’s laser-like attention on sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, striving to become a regional manufacturing base, unlike other fellow resource dependent economies such as Nigeria. While over 70% of Ethiopians remain employed in the agricultural sector, services have eclipsed agriculture as the chief source of GDP. The 2014 crash in commodity prices, for example, had a trivial impact on Ethiopia’s growth path. The IMF predicts that, from 2000 to 2016, Ethiopia was the third-fastest growing country (of 10 million or more people) in the world, as measured by GDP per capita. Since 2005, this African powerhouse has consistently registered double digit GDP growth, boasting an annual growth of 10.5%.

However, while its far-reaching economic reforms aimed to transform this often famine-stricken nation into a “developmental state” have clearly materialized, the price has been high for Ethiopians, forced to live under EPRDF’s stern grip on power. A lack of effective checks and balances has enabled a crackdown on free speech and civil society, all under the mask of “national security.”

The paradox of this Machiavellian compromise has not been lost on bystanders that expected a better future in exchange for their tactic obedience. Since 2015, the Oromo have been orchestrating mass protests denouncing, among other things, what they claim are land grabs from farmers for an authoritarian government’s planned factories. In the years of turmoil, hundreds of Oromo have been killed, factories have been burned, and many hecklers have been incarcerated.

With an invigorated opposition and schisms within the ruling party, Ethiopia’s ability to maintain consistent economic growth will be linked to its ability to integrate forsaken communities who need to be convinced that they too have a stake in Ethiopia’s new future.


Source: https://intpolicydigest.org


  1. The more than a century old wish and efforts of the whites against Ethiopia is bearing fruit against Ethiopians.

    Yes, TPLF lead dislodge Ethiopia is aliens’ >100 years project against Ethiopia.

    Just a synopsis on the inception and enactment of the masked creed to dismantle Ethiopia:

    In 1935, a Western diplomat with the name Roman Prochazka had boldly described Ethiopia as enemy of the white supremacy and their then legacies. Prochazka further thought how these sovereign nation could be broken up. He was the one who discovered the notion of nations/nationalities and instigated it in the Ethiopian minds such as Walelegn Mekonnen.

    The breaking Ethiopia up road map of Prochazka was sketched before the Fascist’s reinvasion of Ethiopia in 1936. His road map was also effectively used by those Italian mercenaries against Ethiopia. Prochaska had said these ‘numerous peoples and tribes who inhabit the territory of the Ethiopian State and which differ in race, language , culture and religion from the ruling minority of Abyssinia proper, would long ago have thrown off the Abyssinian yoke if they had been given the right of self determination.’ He further proclaimed that these distinctly different numerous nationalities are instead forcibly kept away from European influences and from the advantages that progressive colonization could confer upon the country.

    According to Prochazka, Ethiopia operated against white race. The final aim of (Abyssinian) policy of antagonism to the white race in cooperation with Japan , is nothing less than to act as the champions of all colored peoples of Africa, narrated Prochazka. Then he advised the then Western politicians by saying ‘it is incumbent on the legations of the civilized nations in Abyssinia to warn their governments to take a definite stand before the Abyssinians attack and destroy Western culture and civilization in its entirety.’ This hate mongering destruction agent had also indicated the crucially of targeting the Amhara to break up Ethiopia. ‘There is no such thing as a united Abyssinian people, he said. The greater part of the non-Christian tribes in Abyssinia has no more burning desire than to be freed from the tyranny of the Amhara, scammed Prochazka.’

    Walelegn Mekonnen and others had innocently believed the ‘ill-willed’ diagnoses of Ethiopia by Prochazka, namely the notion of nationalities, and the need for the right for self determination up to secession, in 1969. Walelign’s outlooks and proclamations further inspired and overwhelmed the younger Ethiopians including within the monarchy. That was rather disguised deception of the innocent Ethiopians. For more on Walelign’s views https://www.marxists.org/history/erol/ethiopia/nationalities.pdf

    In 1969, CIA invigorated the verves of Prochazka against Ethiopia: the right of self determination of nations and nationalities up to secession for the break up and dismemberment of Ethiopia. By the way, CIA’s policy against Ethiopia since the 1960’s has been copied word for word from the Nazi Baron Roman Prochazka. Note that 1969 was the highest point of CIA’s involvement in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. It was operated by Miles Copeland and others of CIA. They did these by masquerading as followers of a Socialist movement and by manipulating Nasser of Egypt. Miles Copeland was a political consultant on the Middle East, writer and a notorious CIA spy. In that same year, they recruited Issayas Afework as a CIA agent to wage a guerrilla war for breaking out of Ethiopia with all its Red Sea coast. In 1969, Nimeiry in the Sudan and Siad Barrre in Somalia were also recruited.

    The other veteran CIA agent Paul Henze was also the principal promoter of self determination and the break up of Ethiopia. He was assigned to Addis Ababa in 1969. It will not be absurd to think that Walelegn’s article was the h the
    work of foreign agents . The article was rather the hot bed of anti-Ethiopians, the self-determination scheme for the
    break up of Ethiopia

    Eventually, the breaking Ethiopia up aliens’ enthusiasm was effected using the well molded traitor gangs: TPLF and ELF(shabia).

    And they are about to conclude the project with 100% success.

    But I so no and it shall be so! No, wish of our long enemies will be effected against Ethiopia/Ethiopians. Their ill enthusiasm shall rather help us to purdge our ills and to cultivate our wisdoms which shall revitalize our greatness and pride!

    We shall cause freedom of humanity once again!

    • Thanks Gebrew
      We remain united “Better together”. Indeed these situations are opportunities to bind us stronger and bring us to one heart.

      We are Oromo groups under the Motto ” Ethiopia and hear people first”.

      We love and honour all equally!

      May God keep Ethiopia stronger.

  2. The TPLF is adding a fuel to a combustible ethic tension , by passing a state of emergency that would give Tigiran generals, who constitute more than 95% the high ranks in Ethiopian army (for all intent and purposes are TPLF army) to kill peaceful protesters with vengeance. In the last state of emergency, more than 1000 children, women, and defenseless youth had been killed and by the government’s won admission 40,000 Ethiopian were jailed, beaten up ,and forced to sign ” a never again”sign. This time it is going to be even harsher. This time TPLF wants to stump out the protest for once and for all. that is why TPLF, although the official numbers were far short,it concocted a fake number, and passed it thorough for no other reason but to use the weapons, that were bought to defend Ethiopians, against theme. For Ethiopian people it is do or die moment.The people need to organize , know the enemy, and those who work for crumb bread against their own brothers and sisters and take action to defend themselves. Ethiopian people can not be a sitting ducks, while TPLF uses their tax money to kill, rob them. When TPLF acts as if it needs a peace or want to compromise — it is TPLF way of buying time. Meles’ did it when he told the Keniget’s ” everything under the sun is negotiable, to our surprise Haile mariam before TPLF dump him used the same word. Don’t let your kids die today tomorrow and the day after by waiting Honey to come out of a deadly cobra’s fang .

  3. The divide and rule of politics of the TPLF fascists has failed and crumbling. Thus, the TPLF ignited conflicts in the country that caused the mass killings and displacement of almost a million Ethiopian Oromos from the Somali region. The TPLF wants it to cling to power but the age old wisdom and good traditions of Ethiopians to handle and resolve conflicts are preventing a full blown civil war in the country for the moment. The clouds of civil war are hanging over the country.The aversion of civil war requires the removal of the TPLF from power.

  4. Just to drift away from politics just because it is an Oscar night, I am asking you all to applaud our good neighbor Tiffany Haddish for bringing the age old costume on the Oscar stage. I am proud of her for not going for the Prada, Gucci, Versace, Armani’s in all. Hey, Armani, Ralph Lauern, Laurent, In your fase!!! Ha-de-yee-like that!!! You get’em tigress!!!!

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