Alemayehu G. Mariam
The Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam is Ethiopia’s dam. Ethiopians thought it out. Ethiopians built it on their own. Ethiopians will finish it. That is inevitable.
There are abiding truths in world history. Foremost is the fact no one who dared to do harm to Ethiopia has continued to live in peace. Ethiopians, let us stand together as ONE. Our greatest test is not the threat imposed from outside. Our greatest challenge will be if we try to confront that threat separately. The collective shield we carry has always protected us. Today, let’s raise that shield. Let’s all man our (battle) stations for Ethiopia 24 hours a day. There is no power on earth that can stop completion of the GERD. Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, October 24, 2020.
“We will not be intimidated. We will not back down. We’ve seen war. We don’t want war, but if you want a war with Ethiopia, there is one thing I can promise you, so help me God: someone else will raise your sons and daughters.” Paraphrasing U.S. Medal of Honor Recipient, David Bellavia, June 27, 2019
On October 23, 2020, Donald Trump in a videotaped telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netenyahu and Sudanese Army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, in his customary manner put his fat foot in his mouth:
[Transcript of video above]:
Trump: So we have many countries, as you know, getting ready. And we also have — I’m sure you’ll see Saudi Arabia in there very soon. I really believe that will happen too. And very good relations with Saudi Arabia.
So you’ll see something very special. And this is already special, but we are going to be signing numerous countries in the not-too-distant future. So that will be great.
While you are on the phone, could I ask you how is the dam doing in Ethiopia? The largest dam in many, many years being built. Unfortunately, it stops water from flowing into the — the Nile, which causes Egypt a little bit of a problem. Right? As it should.
But Ethiopia built the dam. You know all about it probably, Bibi, but I’ve been dealing with Sudan on that. And I’m just curious, how is that going? Because you’re really the third party involved, with Ethiopia and Egypt, in the dam.
Are they working out their deal? Because I had a deal done for them, and then unfortunately, Ethiopia broke the deal, which they should not have done. That was a big mistake. And we’ve stopped payment to them of about — of a lot of aid because they did it. And they will never see that money unless they adhere to the agreement. But they built a dam, which stops water from flowing into the Nile. And you can’t blame Egypt for being a little bit upset. Right? How are they doing with that? Do you know?
Netanyahu: Well, I think they need a lot of help to resolve it —
Trump: Yeah, no — well, you — I was — actually talking to Sudan, Bibi. (Laughter.)
Talking to the Chairman, talking to the Prime Minister. How are you doing?
Trump: May not want to answer that. (Laughter.)
Netanyahu: Please, go ahead.
Burhan: (Inaudible.) We do very much appreciate the effort that started with the Washington (inaudible), which in very few months, brought us together. I think that this is very (inaudible) we hope to reach a win-win situation that will bring a lot of benefits (inaudible). And we are moving in that direction. We hope you reach an amicable solution soon for this.
Trump: Yeah, if you would, because I had a deal done and then they broke the deal, and they can’t do that. They can’t do that.
So the deal was done, and it’s a very dangerous situation, because Egypt is not going to be able to live that way. And they’ll end up blowing up the dam. And I said it — and I say it loud and clear, “They’ll blow up that dam.” And they have to do something. So whatever you can do to get them, Ethiopia, to do that, they’re going to have to. Okay? And we’ve cut off all payment and everything else to Ethiopia.
It was terrible. We were all set to sign a deal. It was negotiated for five years and longer than that. And they couldn’t make the deal, and I got the deal done. And then they’re getting ready to sign the deal and they broke the deal, which is not good.
So whatever you could do, Prime Minister if you could, that would be great. Okay? You tell them they got to get it done. And I’m telling Egypt the same thing, by the way, you know, because they could have stopped it. They should have stopped it long before it was started. I said, “How do you let it get built? And then you say, ‘They’ve — they have a dam.’” You know.
But they had other things on their mind. That was at time when they were having a minor revolution, to put it mildly. That was a bad time for Egypt, so I guess they had other things on their mind. So you’ll work on that, Sudan. And thank you very much.
So you have any question for Sudan —
In response, the Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia issued a terse statement declaring, “We wish to reiterate our commitment to a peaceful resolution of the matter on the GERD based on cooperation, noninterference, mutual trust in the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization.”
America’s Clown-in Chief does it again!
When Joe Biden called Donald Trump a “clown” at the first presidential debate, I laughed.
The fact of the matter is that Bozo the Clown ain’t got nothing on Donald Trump!
But when I heard Trump, the despicable and blustering blowhard yesterday, egging Egypt to bomb the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, I was not laughing.
I was smelling a rat.
As I have proven time and again, I have a super sensitive nose to smell a rat a thousand miles away.
I smelled a rat when Trump “invited” Ethiopia to the “Washington talks on the GERD” in November 2019.
I said it was a trap set up to snooker Ethiopia into a raw deal on the GERD.
I demonstrated that in my commentary this past Monday entitled, “The Daylight Mugging of Ethiopia by Donald Trump and Abdel Fattah El-Sisi!”
Now, the “Trump-El-Sisi Mugger Team” is threatening to bomb the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
As I explained last week, Donald Trump is running a Mafia-style extortion racket for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.
Trump is El-Sisi’s hit man on the GERD.
Quarterback Trump’s “Hail Mary pass” for Team El-Sisi
What is the reason for Trump’s bluster, bombast and bravado?
In American football there is a play called “Hail Mary pass.” It is a very long forward pass made in desperation, with only a small chance of success.
Trump’s statement Egypt will “blow up” the GERD is Trump-El-Sisi Mugger Team’s hail Mary pass.
It shows Trump’s frustration and desperation that he was unable to score for El Sisi.
It is also Trump’s way of telling the world, “I know y’all laugh at me and think I am a nit-(t)witter, a moron and a prick. But look at me, I can threaten the world with war and military action. Look at me, look at me, I am still in charge.”
In his bluster, Trump is also telling El-Sisi, “I have done everything I can to get the Ethiopians to sign our deal. I threatened them and tried to scare them. But they don’t give a damn. This is all I can do for you. You are on your own El-Sisi from here on.”
In other words, I have done my service for the $10 million you slipped me back in 2016.
I have no doubts Trump initially promised El Sisi that it will be a cake walk walking all over Ethiopia.
Trump soon learned Ethiopia is a hard nut to crack. Ethiopia told him to take his “deal” and shove it up his fat…
Trump knows his reelection campaign in deep doo-doo. The sun will set on his corrupt and vulgar regime on November 3, 2020.
El-Sisi wants payback for the $10 million he laundered for Trump through an Egyptian state bank to support Trump’s 2016 campaign 11 days before election day.
“Therein lies the rub”, as Shakespeare might say.
Exactly 10 days before election day (contrast to the $10 million El-Sisi gave Trump’s campaign 11 days before election day), Trump makes his announcement that Egypt will blow up the GERD.
Therein lies the rat!
El-Sisi calculated that if Trump bombastically announced an imminent military attack on the GERD, that could grab international headlines and scare Ethiopia into signing Trump’s so-called deal.
El-Sisi ain’t dumb or stupid. Certainly, El-Sisi is not a “mentally deranged dotard” like Trump. He knows the high price he will have to pay if he attacked the GERD. He also knows that if the dam is compromised Egypt and Sudan will face floods the likes of which they have never seen.
Ethiopia has the GERD. Egypt has Aswan. People who live in glass houses should never throw stones.
If Trump’s blow up bluster was intended to scare Ethiopia, it did not work. The Italians learned that in 1896 and again in 1941.
But the kind of empty threat and attempted extortion by Trump and Mnuchin is nothing new.
During the “Washington Talks” held between November 2019 and February 2020, there was nothing Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin did not do to break Ethiopia’s back and bring her to her knees begging, “Massa, massah Trump, show us the dotted line where to sign.”
At the Washington talks Mnuchin and his consigliere Adam Lerrick treated Ethiopian diplomats like s**t!
In the end, Trump and Mnuchin learned they themselves are full of s**t.
All a threat made by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing!
Con Man Trump ain’t nothing but a hound dog barking all the time.
As El -Sisi’s lap dog, Trump is now barking at Ethiopia.
Trump barks, “And we’ve stopped payment to them of about — of a lot of aid because they did it. And they will never see that money unless they adhere to the agreement.”
Last month, I told Trump to take his aid and shove it!
Trump barks, “And they’ll end up blowing up the dam. And I said it — and I say it loud and clear, “They’ll blow up that dam.”
Egypt will blow up the GERD just like Al Qaeda blew up the Twin Towers?
But Donald “The Gasbag” Trump has been barking military action against so many countries, no one gives a rat’s ass about what he says anymore.
In June 2020, Trump threatened to “deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for the states” unless American mayors and governors “establish an overwhelming law enforcement presence to quell the violence” in their jurisdictions.
In February 2019, Trump threatened military action against Venezuela.
In December 2019, Trump threatened military action against North Korea if they do not “denuclearize”. North Korea responded by warning “the use of armed forces is not the privilege of the U.S. only.”
In April 2018, Trump threatened to take military action against Syria over a suspected chemical-weapons attack on civilians.
In October 2018, Trump has threatened to use military force to completely close the US-Mexico border.
In May 2018, Trump has threatened North Korea with the same fate as Muammar Gaddafi if the North Korean leader “doesn’t make a deal” on his nuclear weapons program.
In February 2017, Trump threatened to use the US military to deport undocumented immigrants.
In April 2017, Trump threatened Al Shabbab in Somalia that he will “carry out military operations to wipe out al-Shabaab from the country.”
In August 2017, Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
In September 2017, Trump threatened to “totally destroy North Korea” if it threatened the United States and denounced the nuclear agreement with Iran.
Kim Jong-un responded by calling Trump a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard”. That is, an old moron.
In October 2020, Trump by proxy threatens to bomb the Grad Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. “Egypt is going to blow up the dam and I said it and I will say it loud and clear. They will blow it.”
Just like Trump said it loud and clear to North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Al Shabbab, Mexico and American state governors and mayors?
In June 2020, I wrote a commentary entitled, “Is Egypt Secretly Planning a Proxy War on Ethiopia?
I knew (because I have a special nose that can smell a rat from thousands of miles away) Egypt was planning a proxy war on the GERD but I did not know Trump would be waging the proxy war for Egypt.
But what’s new? El-Sisi and his predecessors have been taking or threatening military action against Ethiopia for two centuries
For almost two centuries, Egypt has fought wars in Ethiopia or threatened to go to war over the use of Nile waters.
Egypt imperial and military designs on Ethiopia began at least in the 1820s when Mohammad Ali Pasha sought to expand his empire throughout sub-Sahara Africa by defeating Sudan, dominating the Red Sea and controlling the port city of Massawa, which was part of Ethiopia.
Ali Pasha’s passion was control of the Nile and indeed the principal reason for his invasion of the Sudan.
Pasha wanted to make sure there was no interference in the flow of the Nile through the Sudan. But he was unable to reach Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile.
In 1875-76, Egypt was determined to militarily subjugate Ethiopia and control the Blue Nile once and for all. Egypt deployed a large army well-equipped and trained army led by European and American officers.
The Battle of Gura abolished any practical opportunity for Egypt to gain control over Ethiopia. The heavy Egyptian losses (almost 14,000 men died in three months), the economic damage to the Egyptian economy and, above all, the Egyptian depiction of the Ethiopian warriors as having a demonic character, prevented any future Egyptian invasion of Ethiopia.
In September 2019, El-Sisi told the U.N. General Assembly, “The Nile is a question of life, a matter of existence to Egypt.” In other words, Egypt will go to war to stop the GERD.
In June 2013, Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi declared, “As president of the republic, I confirm to you that all options are open. If Egypt is the Nile’s gift, then the Nile is a gift to Egypt… If it diminishes by one drop, then our blood is the alternative.” In other words, the Nile River will be a river of blood and obviously not Egyptian.
In 1979, Egyptian president Anwar Sadat threatened to go to war with Ethiopia dramatically declaring, “We are not going to wait to die of thirst in Egypt, we’ll go to Ethiopia and die there.” If Egyptians come to war on Ethiopia, Ethiopians will gladly arrange their graves.
On February 28, 2020, the Egyptian Government was on social media saber-rattling and beating the psychological drums of war against Ethiopia:
All organs of the Egyptian State will continue to give this subject the great attention it deserves in the exercise of their national responsibilities in defending the interests, potential and future of the Egyptian people by all means available.
On May 12, 2020, Ethiopia reiterated its long declared policy that it will start filling the GERD in July, 2020.
In response, on May 19, 2020, El-Sisi directed Egyptian armed forces to be on the “highest state of alert”.
An Egyptian land and/or air war on Ethiopia?
I am not terribly worried about an Egyptian land or air war in Ethiopia.
With all due respect to the Egyptian military, its record of military success leaves much to be desired.
The 1948 Arab–Israeli War, the Suez Crisis 1956 and the Six-Day War of 1967 proved disastrous for Egypt.
The 1973 Arab-Israeli War also ended up in a humiliating Egyptian defeat, and only through the Camp David Accords was Egypt able to reclaim the Sinai.
Since 2013, Egypt has been involved in its largest military campaign in the Sinai peninsula since its 1973 war with Israel. Egypt deployed 88 battalions with 42,000 soldiers to defeat an ISIS-affiliated insurgency.
In February 2018 El-Sisi launched Operation Sinai to “purge the country of terrorists”. However, “despite brutal methods and substantial military effort, the Egyptian government has little to show from the past five-plus years of counterinsurgency operations in the Sinai aside from hundreds of military and civilian casualties and an undeterred adversary.”
In June 2018, the Egyptian Air Force publicly admitted it cannot eradicate the terrorist insurgency in North Sinai and its aim now is only “containment”.
If Egypt cannot defeat a few thousand terrorists in 5 years, could it defeat Ethiopia by marching its army or flying its air force 2,300 miles?
But fools have rushed in where angels fear to tread.
In 1812, French Emperor Napoleon invaded Russia with an army of 680,000 men ending in total defeat for France. In 1942, Hitler attacked Stalingrad and ended up with his army of 330,000 men wiped out.
Most instructively, in 1896 Italy invaded Ethiopia with state of the art weapons and a large army and was wiped out in a battle that lasted NOT even a full day!
In 1935, Italy returned to avenge its humiliating defeat and extensively used mustard gas against the civilian population. In 1941, Italy suffered another humiliating defeat.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the 2018 Nobel Peace Laureate, has cautioned the dispute with Egypt over Nile waters could be resolved only through negotiations. He warned if war is waged on Ethiopia by Egypt he “could ready millions of people”.
Egypt is already conducting a massive diplomatic and propaganda war and psychological warfare against Ethiopia
As I have demonstrated in my June 5, 2020 commentary, for well over a century Egypt has been conducting an aggressive diplomatic war on Ethiopia through the use of coerced treaties and agreements. The “deal” Trump talks about is the latest example of that diplomatic war.
Egypt has been waging a war of words (propaganda war) against Ethiopia in the international media for nearly a decade.
Every single day there are articles in various legacy outlets and social media platforms (arranged by Egyptian government paid public relations firms, Egyptian officials and intellectuals, internet trolls, etc.) pleading the cause of Egypt victimized by Ethiopia’s insistence on using the Nile waters in violation of international law, agreements and principles of good neighborliness.
Egypt continues to wage psychological warfare against Ethiopia by threatening unspecified military action and meddling in Ethiopian affairs.
Egyptian intelligence has funneled money to extremist groups in Ethiopia for decades. Egypt provides safe haven for criminals and terrorists who have fled Ethiopia after committing crimes against humanity. Egypt continues to actively promote ethnic and religious tensions in Ethiopia by providing arms and money to any group who will work with them to destabilize the country.
Any attempt by Egypt to attack the GERD will be suicidal
Egypt would be crossing the proverbial Rubicon River (might I say the Nile River) if it believes it can bring Ethiopia to knees on the use of the Nile waters by waging war.
Such a war will be a point of no return – no return to diplomacy, no return to negotiations, no return to peaceful resolution.
If such a war should occur, Ethiopia will be free to disregard any and all international laws on riparian rights and any and all agreements on sharing Nile waters.
Just like the United States exercises ABSOLUTE SOVEREGNITY on the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, Ethiopia too will exercise ABSOLUTE SOVEREGNITY over the Nile River.
The Mutt and Jeff show of Trump and El-Sisi
To me, the little show and drama of bombast Trump and El-Sisi are putting on reminds me of the comic strip characters Mutt and Jeff from a century ago.
Augustus Mutt, like Donald Trump is a tall, dimwitted character totally motivated by greed.
Jeff is short, “bald as a billiard” and an insane asylum inmate who shares Mutt’s greedy passion for horseracing (totally controlling the Abay (Nile) River waters.
With the GERD blow up drama, Trump and El-Sisi are putting on a Mutt and Jeff Show.
They are playing a game of “good cop/bad cop” on the GERD.
El-Sisi threatens to blow up the GERD.
Trump promises to give aid to Ethiopia if she “takes” his “deal” on the GERD.
So, Ethiopia faces two paper tigers.
Ethiopia shall be glad to provide a furnace for any paper tigers who want to play with fire!
The Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam is Ethiopia’s dam!
The Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam is Ethiopia’s dam.
Ethiopians thought it out.
Ethiopians built the GERD with their own own money.
Ethiopians built the GERD with their blood, sweat and tears!
Ethiopians will finish the GERD.
That is inevitable.
RESISTANCE TO THE GERD IS FUTILE!
The solution to GERD issues
DUMP TRUMP ON NOVERMBER 3, 2020!
ETHIOPIAN AMERICANS SHOULD COME OUT IN FULL FORCE ON NOVEMBER 3, 2020 AND GIVE DONALD TRUMP THE BOOT!
VOTE EARLY. VOTE BY MAIL. VOTE BY ABSENTEE BALLOT. VOTE IN PERSON AND VOTE OUT DONALD TRUPM ON NOVEMBER 3, 2020!