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Does Any Ethiopian Understand the Motive Behind Ethiopia’s Unilateral Ceasefire? — Is Ethiopia heading for state collapse?

Aklog Birara (Dr)
July 8, 2021

Part II

“Unable to control Tigray, Ethiopia isolates region already beset by famine and war. … Aid groups report that there has been no Internet, phone service or electricity in Tigray since Ethiopian troops retreated and that no food or fuel are being allowed in….”

                                              The Washington Post

Following a conversation with Prime Minister Abiy on July 6, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken issued  a threatening statement and called for “the complete withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces from Tigray; for full, safe, and unhindered humanitarian access to populations in need; for the establishment of a transparent process to hold accountable those responsible for human rights abuses and atrocities; and for an affirmation that neither the internal nor external borders of Ethiopia will be changed by force or in contravention of the constitution.”

The one recommendation to which I and millions of Ethiopians subscribe to is the recommendation for an-all inclusive national dialogue for peace, reconciliation, and national consensus. Without peace, there is no prospect for development. In turn, this requires a lengthy period of soul searching, reflection and strategic thinking on the part of all Ethiopian stakeholders. The international community, especially Western democracies can help Ethiopia and all Ethiopians by refraining from taking sides. The old colonial motive of “divide and rule” does not do the trick.

The most important domestic variable to save Ethiopia from collapse at this critical moment in Ethiopia’s long and distinguished history is for all Ethiopians to pull in the same direction. For example, US Secretary of State Blinken demanded “for an affirmation that neither the internal nor external borders of Ethiopia will be changed by force or in contravention of the constitution.” By this he meant that the Amhara must abandon their legitimate claim of Wolkait, Tegede, Telemt and Raya. He ignored completely the historical fact that these lands were forcibly annexed and incorporated into Tigray by the TPLF in the 1980s and 1990s. The evidence is out there for the Department of State to consider (See evolution of administrative maps of Ethiopia).

It is vital that Ethiopians who believe firmly and genuinely in the future of Ethiopia, in justice and the peaceful resolution of conflicts understand that the reference to “affirmation that neither the internal nor the external borders of Ethiopia will be changed by force or in contravention of the Constitution” refer to Wolkait, Tegede, Telemt and Raya that were forcibly annexed by the TPLF. Annexation of these lands is not an Amhara or Gondarie issue. It is an Ethiopian issue. Secretary Blinken should have refrained from emboldening the TPLF or other forces to go to war and retake lands that were never part of Tigray in the first place.

What prompted the USA to declare such a draconian position that affects the internal affairs of a sovereign nation? Failure to recognize Ethiopia’s geopolitical and administrative history is patently colonial bordering on racism. The push to legitimize land annexation is tantamount to supporting the secession of Tigray from Ethiopia. Secession too will prove costly to Tigreans.

The Government of the US never expressed outrage when the TPLF that it helped come to power annexed and incorporated these lands into Greater Tigray. Nor did it express concern for the Amhara girls and women who were raped by the TPLF at the time. Do not these Ethiopians deserve justice and equality? Is one ethnic group superior to the other? Is this preferential treatment fair? Does it really serve American national interests in the long run?

History tells us that the TPLF vowed to support the USA if its narrow or ethnic elite interests were supported and rewarded. A terrorist group became a darling of the USA and other democracies. Things changed after the TPLF was rejected by the Ethiopian people. Rejection of repression or exclusion by any ethnic group over another is a noble idea that must be celebrated by all peace-loving people and governments. The motive behind demanding that “internal or external border change” is disallowed and illegal tantamount to dictating to Ethiopia that it does not have sovereign rights within its own boundaries. This is an imperial edict that Black Africa must never accept. The colonial and imperial era of dictating policies to countries poor or rich is long gone.

There is another motive that I believe must be disclosed. It seems to me that the US does not want a strong, unified, prosperous and all-inclusive Ethiopia and a nationalist Federal Government that would enable it to achieve these aspirational goals. Why else would Ireland, Finland, the USA and other Western democracies make Ethiopia an agenda item for UN Security Council deliberation on purely domestic issues?

Why do the goal posts keep changing?

By the goal post changing constantly, I mean it changes from crime against humanity, ethnic cleansing, genocide, rape to a catastrophic humanitarian crisis and fast forward to imminent famine caused by the cordoning off Tigray from unhindered access to food etc. I guarantee you that the story line will change again and again until the end game is achieved. How come Western democracies do not demand that the TPLF cease terrorism or that Sudanese military forces move out Ethiopia?

Secretary Blinken talks about the sanctity of internal and external borders. Who anointed the US to determine an African internal border? After all, the colonial era of dissecting Africa into small pieces along ethnic lines is long gone. It is hypocritical and precedent setting for all Black African nations to dictate that they adjust their internal borders in line with the dictates of the Government of the US. Here I urge all Africans and African Americans to defend Ethiopia.

Let me be more specific. What is the motive of American silence on the Sudanese invasion of Ethiopia?

It concerns me and millions of Ethiopians that the Biden Administration did not demand that Sudanese military forces that annexed Ethiopian lands to halt their aggression and restore the lands they annexed by force to Ethiopia etc. Sudanese aggression, annexation, robbery of properties owned by indigenous people and proxy war are all violations of international law as well as of Covenants agreed by the African Union. Behind this reluctance, it seems to me, is the second filling and completion of the GERD. This is more problematic than the Tigray issue that Ethiopians are poised to solve one way or another.

Be ready for more shocks.

Some policy insiders tell me that we should not be shocked if the Biden Administration proposes a reason to side with Egypt and Sudan and demand that Ethiopia ceases filling the dam. At a time when the Biden Administration tells us that “Black Lives matter,” such a development would be doing the complete opposite in Africa where most of the planet’s Black people live.

At today’s hearing in the Security Council of the UN, US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield uttered the following appropriate words:

“The Horn of Africa is at an inflection point. Decisions in the weeks and months ahead will have significant, long-term implications for the people of the region. The United States is committed to addressing the interlinked regional crises and to supporting a prosperous and stable Horn of Africa. So, we stand ready to support collaborative and constructive efforts by Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan to resolve the issues over the GERD.

We understand that the Nile waters and how these waters are used are important to all three of these countries. And we believe this is an issue that can be reconciled. A balanced and equitable solution to the filling and operation of the GERD can be reached with political commitment from all parties. Egypt and Sudan’s concerns over water security and the safety and operation of the dam can be reconciled with Ethiopia’s development needs.

This begins with the resumption of productive, substantive negotiations. Those negotiations should be held under the leadership of the African Union and should recommence with urgency. This process should use the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by the parties and the July 2020 statement by the AU Bureau as foundational references.”

This statement is in line with Ethiopia’s position. Those of us in the Diaspora involved with the GERD must hammer this point repeatedly. We should also propose that the long-term solution is for all eleven Nile River Riparian nations to arrive at a water sharing Agreement.

 

The GERD is beneficial to Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan and to the rest of Africa. Look at it from the human side. Does not the GERD free Black Ethiopian girls and women from the backbreaking work of hauling woods on their back? Isn’t the GERD freedom for the poor of Ethiopia 60 percent of whom do not have access to electricity? Does it not contribute to the African grid that the US supports? At a basic level, “Is Black Ethiopian life less worthy of support by the US compared to Egyptian life?”

Why the bias and selectivity?

Does the Biden administration care that demanding the restoration of lands annexed by the TPLF to the Tigray region will lead to a catastrophe? Does the Administration care to know the historical truth that there has never been a “Western Tigray” before the annexation by force?

I know the history because I spent 6 months conducting research on Wolkait, Tegede, Telemt and Raya. There is literally no historical evidence that these lands were ever part of Tigray. The border lines between the Amhara /Begemdir and Gondar and Tigray are the Tekezie River areas (examine the administrative maps attached).

I also suggest that the US does not have the moral or legal authority to sanction annexation and incorporation.

The Washington Post’s latest accusatory statement of Ethiopia cited above, and Secretary Blinken’s statement remind me of an American idiom, “Damned if I/you do, damned if I (we) don’t.” The narrative on Tigray changes constantly for a reason. The policy and decision makers in the USA and other Western democracies that are determined to bring down the Government of Ethiopia encourage their media to feed into and reinforce misleading and patently false

information on the ground. Relentless assault of Ethiopia serves their national interests, ultimate objectives and helps them justify punitive measures against Ethiopia.

Where is parity and fairness in US policy?

In summary, the Federal Government of Ethiopia declared a unilateral ceasefire which the Biden Administration must commend. Instead of berating Ethiopia, the US should demand that the TPLF and allied terrorist groups also abandon their terrorist acts and declare ceasefire. The reference to the “destruction of bridges” is appropriate.

What is missing is to pinpoint and demand that the TPLF cease destroying investment property and stop placing blame on Ethiopia, including Amhara Special Forces that protect innocent civilians from more attacks by the TPLF. The Mai Kadra massacre is still fresh in the minds of the local population as well as the rest. I urge the Biden Administration to acknowledge that Amhara Special Forces are not in Tigray. They are in Amhara lands.

In part I of this series, I underlined the incontestable trend that if We Ethiopians within and outside the country do not get our act together, agree on a unity of purpose, defend Ethiopia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, defend Ethiopia’s legitimate rights to complete the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by mobilizing and channeling resources, and demand that Western democracies stop dividing our society on the basis of ethnicity, then the failure to save Ethiopia from disintegration is ours;  and not theirs.

Western donor governments and agencies must refrain from using their alms to pressure Ethiopia to submit to their will In fundamental ways on the ground, aid has done verry little to eradicate poverty; and to strengthen a self-reliant and prosperous Ethiopian society. Most aid monies are stolen. The Federal Government of Ethiopia has yet to show a consistent and bold commitment to remove institutional and structural barriers and to create an enticing environment in boosting domestic productivity; and in stimulating the creation of millions of jobs each year. Those in the Diaspora with means are often discouraged because of lack of confidence in those with power.

Finally, at this time in Ethiopia’s history, our unified call must be to set aside non-strategic interests and to save Ethiopia from collapse. It is only when we have a country called Ethiopia that we can fight with one another as to who can and must govern the country.

The one compelling theme in the latest of changing narratives by the US Department of State that I also defend is the appeal and call that the Ethiopian people deserve an “All party conference and political dialogue that will lead to national reconciliation, peace and national consensus.”

Ethiopia’s sustainable and equitable development is virtually unattainable without peace.

July 8, 2021

References

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Map I: Geopolitical map of Ethiopia by ethnic designation under the Socialist Government

Map II: Geopolitical map of Ethiopia before TPLF took power, 1991

 

Map III. Western Tigray: the evolution of annexation and incorporation after 1991.

Note:

Map III depicts annexation and expansion. I urge the reader to notice the huge expansion of Tigray after it annexed and incorporated large tracts of lands that belong to the Amhara population. This is what US Secretary of State Blinken is demanding that PM Abiy Ahmed restore to Tigray. The price that the Amhara population will pay upon restoration will be huge and permanent. Has anyone asked what the indigenous population would say or do?

Therefore, one must reflect about the devastating consequences of restoration. Th way forward is for all Ethiopians to live and work in any part of Ethiopia without fear. For this to happen, the ethnicity-based Constitution must be changed or amended or scrapped.

The last point is this. West Tigray is a new and post 1991 phenomenon instilled in the minds off Western democracies and embraced as fact by a large segment of the Tigrean population.

The region is among the least developed because budgets were diverted deliberately to keep the indigenous population poor and backward.

 

Part III will follow soon

 

8 Comments

  1. Subject: “Does Any Ethiopian Understand the Motive Behind Ethiopia’s Unilateral Ceasefire? — Is Ethiopia heading for state collapse?” by Aklog Birara (Dr), July 8, 2021

    Humble Commentary, 7 July 2021

    Let us be straight forward and very frank on the subject matter

    First, needless to say, the Article is comprehensive, insightful and penetrating in the overall subject matter, dealing with the historical Cruel Colonial Powers on the background against the innocent Black African Societies for time immemorial. African Readers — in particular Ethiopian Readers on the subject matter of the Article referred to above — should read the Article in detail, without rushing. On my part, I will enjoy re-reading it, endlessly. I admire this quote from the Article:: “the failure to save Ethiopia from disintigration is ours and not theirs” Indeed, it is monumental challenge to the Ethiopian People.

    Now, let us go to the manipulation that we see TODAY, upon Black African People, by refined tact of keeping the Honest Black African People, at the lowest strata of Life and let the Rich African Continent to be under the complete domain of the well advanced sleek White Race, for economic exploitation. In this endeavour, the innocent Black African People are only needed as subservient under the endless tact of manipulation by the colonial powers for eternity. Consequently, African Intellectuals as well as ordinary > indiginous > ambitious > hungry dictators for power, would be categorized as the faithful African servants for their masters. And so, the obedient Africans remain as the ever lasting rust worthy servant for the White Race for ever and ever, and ever. I will be extremly happy to be wrong.

    In any case, here is a complex narration: African Race, starting from brain washing tact, conveniently known as “education’ which— in reality — was a perfect design of brain washing of the young African Mind with European history, culture, way of Life etc etc etc part and parcel of the ancient objective of White Colonial to subjugate the Black African Race. And so, the sordid story goes, the African people become helpless against the Western Exploitation of the Rich African Continent for the benefit of the White Society. As face saving, the African quasi-intellectuals and moron dictators are perfect killers of their brethren — the Black Africans. And so, I end up with a quote by the famous Alan Paton: “ CRY, MY BELOVED AFRICA”. THE END

    ————————————————————
    Footnote:
    Dear Editor,
    I get an UNUSUAL negative feeling for MY OWN narration!!! As a neutral Editor, If you find my narration not quite fit for a website such as yours — the zeHabesha.com, please delete it !!! Yes, you may wish to delete it. I am aware, it is unusual request.

  2. Sir! I like reading your articles. They are always loaded with material backed up with personal experience. I am not sure why the foreign policies of these Western democracies towards Ethiopia went so awry. Secretary Blinken had threatened el-Sisi back in March with sanctions if he proceeded with the purchase of the SU-35 advanced fighter jets from Russia. Egypt seems to be saying ‘get lost’ and now it has received part of the order. Has anyone heard any sanction issued on Egypt? It seems to me that el-Sisi and his advisors think they can do away with the USA and still keep their peace accord with Israel if it comes push to shove. I tell you that area is a mess now more than ever diplomacy wise. One vexing ‘behavior’ of the Western democracies to despots like el-Sisi has been they nudge and nag when atrocities are committed against citizens. When those despots feel cornered by the West’s complaints of human rights violation, el-Sisi and the like would use part of the US aid itself to buy more Kamov attack helicopter gunships and Rafale Mirages. If the complaints don’t stop he will pick up the phone and call Xi and Putin telling them he may have new orders worth billions for them. I can see how nightmarish the atmosphere is in that part of the world. There is also the Iranian boogieman lurking around in the hood. Then there is the Suez Canal. What mightier weapon do you need to humble and cow tow the West given the fact that the economy of Western Europe is in so such fragile state? I tell you it is a tall order for rookie diplomats. All they can do is harass and gentrify black folks they can find around. They can stop, pull over and frisk those black folks for no fault committed whenever they feel like it! You remember that eternal line by the eternal Ol’ Cap’n Cotchipee’s? During the commissary report the son told his dad Ol’ Cap’n Cotchipee’s that ‘the flowers are rotten, the beans are spoiled and the meat has worms’. His dad replied with ‘sell it to the Negroes’. Then the son told dad that is cheating and dad said that is ok. When the son asked dad ‘how long we will be cheating?’ and dad’s answer was ‘as long as they are Negroes’. I am not trying to play the race card here but it has all the hallmarks of such injustice. If it was Egypt building such a dam and the other guys were the Libyans or Jordanians there will be no such enthusiasm to fire a barrage of one sanction after another let alone with the threat of every other sanction on the table which could mean the raining of deadly missiles and bombing air raids. This just makes me very sad instead of making me mad.

    Meanwhile, it is up to my Amhara and Tigrayan brothers and sisters to look at themselves in the mirror and stop the nonsense and sit down to talk. No more of their youth, not one, should lose his/her Allah Created and Blessed life on a piece of land Allah Gave them to live on in peace and harmony. There is no question that there is enough in the so-called disputed land for both to share and live a comfortable life. Winner-take-all ain’t gonna further the accord for either two. Sit down and talk. You have the wisdom and capability to reach an amicable resolution. You don’t need an outsider to lecture you about it. Your ancestors had the wisdom to always find the midway to put a stop to senseless conflicts. I call upon H.E. Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and the leader of the Amhara region H.E President Agegnehu Teshager to stand above the fray and give their citizens the chance to live in peace. These two people are the most inter-married groups of people next to Oromo/Amhara intermingle. History will reward you with eternal praise for finding lasting peace for those Allah Blessed people. You will have nothing to lose but you will gain more with positive consequences for your over sacrificed youths. Thousands of the youth and civilians have already perished in just less than a year. How long this senseless carnage should go on? Come, come dear countrymen! Come, come!!!!!

  3. I do not expect and think Ethiopian or African national interest never to come from Western countries. All around the current state or Ethiopia vis about two things the need for the west to have an eternal patronized puppet in the HoA namely TPLF to plunder Western tax payers money as aid and the lobbyist s in payroll with looted money by TPLF. It is the marriage in crime never seen and without any shame. The media is consequence of it as needing non ending stream of information to sell. As for GRED also it is the converging story line as that king of power not only would bring out a lot of Ethiopians out of poverty but also may be a leap to make Ethiopia a powerful nation. That kind of power without any west or any other regional or world power is a limitless support to undertake other megaprojects beyond food and health supply. The racist west know very well even next break through on AI, nuclear fusion or other moonshot projects on regards to time and entinglement are around the corner head to head with them let alone miniature comfort gain for the Ethiopian poor. TPLF and all the liberation fronts were and are the guardians for the west will the sell their country for small bounty. Now the current problem of Ethiopia and specially Tigray is of one spoiled organization TPLF and the people who choose to support it. They think and behave are above other Ethiopians and the they are the masters of everyone else as they where brought to power by their white masters. That is why they built EFFORT to plunder their own supposed brothers and sisters and built immense fortunes to even bribe the most powerful corners of the world including American and European politicians and along the way multiple analysts and think thanks. After the unilateral government retreat the Goebles are still pushing narrative that accuses about a blockage but not a single word about summary executions by TPLF in Tigray in recent days. That is how fact checking is the west media. Simply out they were analyzing news feed by only TPLF. Everything told by non TPLF is a lie and fabrication. The TPLF “victories” also go along the same lines. And now they have ventured to go after the lands they looted 30 years ago by displacing and exterminating close to million Amharas that the west never reported back in time do to their urgency to dispose of the DERG government. Now and then Amharas and most of Ethiopians know where the West stands. We even know that Blinken is telling us to adhere to the constitution for which Ethiopians never were asked on referendum. It was imposed on Ethiopians by ethnic war lord’s with the US and west help. It was not Ethiopian people choice. To that extent Eritreans did have their fate better except the federation option was taken out from the ballot. So the constitution itself is null and void for most Ethiopians in their heart. It has passed 30 years and Ethiopian are not buying until today and take it as imposition. Ethiopia is enduring what other African countries have endured under colonialism for a century. But this time around is a neocolonialism agenda using not mercenaries but banda’s like TPLF and other liberation fronts. From the weakness and steps taken by Abiy’s PP government it also looks this government is also is selling it’s people to western bidders. It is one thing saying you are leaving a way front for humanitarian reasons but when that region that was ravaged by war still is barking and coming after the same forces that supported you when you were weak and you abandon them that is treacherous deed you will pay dearly. PP’s commitment to Ethiopia is in shattered territory as right now and Ethiopian military may be forced not to listen these dump politicians. As Abiy failing or abandoning defending the sovereignty of Ethiopia will make him pay in kind in the right time. History has full of resemblances in the recent and older past. We have been failed state for the last 30 years and moribund from the moment TPLF, EPLF and the liberation fronts were sponsored first by the Arabs and later by the West. DERG should have been more letal like the Israelis going and handling training camps deep into Sudan and elsewhere as well targeting individual masterminds. The current government instead of doing so to safeguard Ethiopians imprisons and kills those who identify and tells them the government weakness. We still are not with right leadership and we need one to safeguard the victory achieved so far.

  4. “Does Any Ethiopian Understand the Motive Behind Ethiopia’s Unilateral Ceasefire? — Is Ethiopia heading for state collapse?”

    No. Only Aklog Birara, the Ethiopian intellectual of Einsteinian caliber, understands this delicate matter. The answer is your government is defeated decisively. You write on everything you know and don’t know. What do you have to write on tomorrow?

  5. I take exception to some of the comments above assigning the current Ethiopian conflict exclusively to the Tigray and Amhara people.
    The TPLF and its supporters have promoted such an idea ad nauseum. It has been the strategy of the TPLF to “break the back” of Ethiopianism by isolating and enfeebling the Ethiopian Orthodox church and the so called Amhara elite , meaning the Amhara people. That has been the modus operandi of the ethno-nationalists and their cheer leaders in the West including the for profit ” main stream” media collaborators.
    It defies logic to conclude the problem is for the Amhara PP and TPLF leaders to resolve in isolation.
    Does the PM and the rest of the PP have any role to play?
    Isn’t the PM the one that stated that a red line has been crossed and declared a law enforcement operation in Nov 2020 in Tigray? The TPLF has stated clearly that PM is a leader of an illegal government.
    Didn’t the Ethiopian parliament declare the TPLF to be a terrorist organization?
    Now some commentators and I suspect many in the prosperity party especially the Oromo branch would like to delegate the responsibility of reconciling with the TPLF to the Amhara.
    I do not think that answers , honestly, the question posed by Dr Aklog ,unless one has an ulterior and nefarious motive.

  6. Well done Ato Aklog.

    You raised important questions. The main problem is our internal weakness and divisions. Available signs indicate that Oromufa is trying to dominate power especially by weakening/destabilizing the Northerners.

    You mentioned the importance of peace and reconciliation. But do most of those in power want that? If they wanted peace they could have stopped the nasty genocide all over the Country. They couldn’t have suddenly abandoned Tigray people and others that live or learn there.

    The only healthy way out is for people to come to their senses, create peace and stop mutual destruction. No one can live in peace on the destruction of the others. Let us stop the acts of barbarity and act like humans.

  7. Well, any verbal or written way of expressing one’s ideas and concern is as important as any effort we make in order to make a difference ! It is from this perspective that I appreciate those educated compatriots such-as the writer of the above article .

    Leaving this desirable way of expressing one’s ideas and concerns as it should be , the very tough challenge we have been facing and we continued to face during this time of so called democratic change is deepening and widening at an incredibly fast and dangerous manner .

    Sadly enough, we keep talking and writing all kinds of theories and rhetorics without taking our deep breath and checking weather we are doing something that enables us to move forward in line with the very fundamental question of making our dreams for a truly democratic Ethiopia a reality
    Yes, it is the right thing to closely follow and understand the very difficult and complex game of world politics and try to respond accordingly .

    However, it is a wrong if not a stupid way of political thinking and behavior to lose focus on our own internal political and moral degradation and consequently the untold sufferings of the people because of those political elites of the two factions and juntas of EPRDF ( TPLF and Prosperity) whose hands are badly stained with the very blood of huge number of innocent Ethiopians !

    I have never come across any well – studied, well- organized , well- integrated, well-destined , well- cross- checked , well- tracked , etc. products of intellectuals and/or educated individual or groups that could be used as an instrument to move forward accordingly . Don’t you really believe that it is our own idiotic way of political thinking and doing things that we horribly damaged our national reputation and pride than the external forces you are talking about? I strongly argue it is ! Why you guys keep going around the bush and regurgitating the story of intervention in our internal affairs whereas we stupidly failed to deliver a political system that could firmly and wisely protect and promote our national interests and pride ? Why you keep taking and writing just all kinds of academic theorization and rhetoric whereas our case is desperately demanding for practical works that could have a lot to do with making our deadly political system the thing of the past and bringing about a true democratic Ethiopia ?

    Why we keep complaining about the unfair way of world politics as if it is a new phenomenon of this era of political game ? Yes, those relatively developed foreign powers are not expected to show a real sense of respect to us because we terribly not only disrespect each other but suppress and kill each other for the past almost half a century . Do you really believe that a small child who is terribly hungry and begging for something to eat cannot bow down and kiss the very feet of another child of well to do family who plays with bread or cake ? Yes, being poor is not something disgraceful by itself . But being poor because of the laziness or failure to get rid of the ruthless and corrupt ruling elites and to bring about a system that cloud help us to get out of political, moral and socio economic tragedy is absolutely inexcusable !!
    Why we terribly failed to deliver a critical support to the so called opposition political entities which commonly preach about the prevalence of democratic and united Ethiopia but terribly failed when it comes to the question of get it done?
    Let’s do the right thing with a real sense of intellectual value and action !!!!

  8. Dr. Birara asked,
    Does Any Ethiopian Understand the Motive Behind Ethiopia’s Unilateral Ceasefire? — Is Ethiopia heading for state collapse?
    I believe only the Ethiopian government and those who have access to the government will know. We the everyday people can only speculate.
    i can put myself in the shoe of ethio gov and explore scenarios for taking ceasefire option.
    1. Ethiopian forces may have been in grave danger. So, continuing with war could have lead to many more death. Let us save life and live to fight another day.
    2. The insane US and european pressure on ethio gov to make peace with the most criminal groups in the world, TPLF, may have played a role.

    Nevertheless, allowing TPLF to take control of Tigray and to run Tigray is a very very serious and disastrous mistake. TPLF are not only the number enemy of ethiopia and ethiopians but also are the number one enemy of Tigrai people. TPLF members stole millions if not billions of dollar of world wide aid money coming to ethiopia to help victims of tigria famine in 1984. They used the stolen money to buy weapons and enrich themselves. Consequently, thousands of tigria people died of starvation. Before the overthrow of Haile Selassie regime in the 1970’s EPRP and derg were competing to replace Haile Selassie. EPRP stood for one ethiopia and had military base in Tigray. TPLF wanted ethiopia to divide into multiple regions based on ethnic group. Therefore, EPRP and TPLF had competing interest and were unable to work together to overtake derg groups. At some point TPLF demanded members of EPRP to leave their military base in Tigray region ASAP or else. When EPRP leaders resisted hundreds of them were brutally murdered by TPLF which gave Derg group lots of power and the brutal criminal Derg region eventually formed the next ethiopia government. Had TPLF not murdered EPRP leaders, EPRP had a great chance of leading ethiopia and ethiopia would have been in much greater position and we would not have to deal with death of millions of ethiopians and the current mess.
    We all know how terrible, criminal and disastrous TPLF regime was not only to ethiopia but also to somalia, sudan and eritrea. TPLF rule lead to the death of millions of people in neighboring countries.
    What should be ethiopian government next step.
    1. Realize that winning a battle dose not mean winning a war. War is composed of multiple battles. Having a set back in one battle should not be a big concern. Ethio gov ought to look at the big picture(united ethiopia). Don’t miss the forest for the trees.
    2. Get back into fight after making all the right preparation D-DAY Style to permanently crash TPLF and free the tigrai and ethiopian people from TPLF tyranny.
    3. Since TPLF is the enemy of somalia and eritrea getting help from those countries makes a lot of sense. ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND.
    4. Question, Do US and European leaders know what the roots causes of the conflict in ethiopia are? trillion percent NO
    Question, Do US and european leaders care about the well being, success of trigai and ethiopian people? trillion percent NO
    Question, Why are US and european leaders involved in ethiopian affairs? 100% due to self interest and to enrich themselves while in power. THOSE WHO DON’T ENRICH THEMSELVES WHILE IN POWER WILL FEEL SORRY AFTER THEY LOSS POWER. They follow the famous ethiopian saying.
    Question, Why does current US government love TPLF? They have the same value. Both worship POWER and MONEY and hate GOD and ALLAH. TPLF allowed previous US governments to do whatever they wanted to in east african and is always willing to help them as long as they pay TPLF the right amount of money and enrich TPLF’s power. TPLF invaded somalia in 2006 on the order of US government in order to install a puppet government in Somalia to serve the interest of US and TPLF. The invasion led to the birth of Al shabab.
    Question: How should ethio gov deal with US gov? 1st realize that they don’t give a damn about ethiopia and ethiopians and the whole africa. They want a subservient and slave gov that must do whatever US wants them to do. No questioning your masters nigger. Know your place we are masters and you are slave. Realize that current US gov is unlike any government since the time Abraham Lincoln, 1860’s. There was no normal transition of power from previous government to current government. This is the 1st time since 1860’s where the previous government declared the current government illegitimate. Previous gov under Trump and about 50% US citizens believe that current Biden gov came to power by stealing votes therefore it does not represent them and is illegitimate. While dealing with very unpopular and controversial US gov, ethio gov must play the dirty political game in a clever way. As the saying goes, POLITICS IS A DIRTY GAME. The most important focus of ethio gov should be to create not only a united and patriotic ethiopia and ethiopians but also a united east africa and east africans. UNITED WE STAND DIVIDED WE FALL.

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