By Blen M. Diriba, Dejen Ras & Ghionawiw Bedilu
June 6, 2021
Ethiopia is under the surge of diplomatic pressures on account of several strategic issues arising from the GERD, global geopolitical rivalry between western powers, China & Russia; as well as some Middle East/Arab states. Irredentist and provocative border claims as a potential trigger with high risk of border conflict with Sudan in the horizon has added to the intense global political pressure on Ethiopia is being shooted from all sides – be it the US, UK, European Union and the Arab League. It is to be noted that all these problems are coupled with one another. Decoupling these problems might help the Ethiopian government and its diplomatic community, including public diplomacy. In this piece, we try to understand this problem in depth in order to efficiently resist and win the diplomatic warfare Ethiopia is facing in a globalized political battlefield.
To start with, the term ‘decouple’ is literally understood as the process of eliminating interrelationship or unlinking/breaking up interrelated issues. The method is used in different fields like business, science, engineering, and others having its own meaning on a contextual basis. The question is then, why does it signify in politics or more specifically, diplomacy – and how can it help resolve diplomatic challenges like the ones Ethiopia is faced with right now? Whether or not Ethiopia benefits from decoupling or coupling the challenges in the effort to address them efficiently is also another important question here. If so, the identification of the challenges that need to be decoupled are the vital initial steps that should be done on the basis of thoughtful and professional analysis. This article explores such important points, briefly but adequately.
Decoupling in the context of diplomacy more or less refers to the idea of dealing with only one diplomatic aspect at a time, without indulging in further connection among the many other aspects. When analyzing the many coupled aspects of the diplomatic challenges Ethiopia is facing right now, the following five are what we consider in need of urgent focus and attention – both from the government and the public at large. These are Water Diplomacy, Interest-Based Diplomacy, International Conflict Resolution (ICR) Diplomacy, and Network & Influence Oriented Diplomacy. These are generic in nature but analyzed briefly and precisely hereunder.
The Water Diplomacy : The Political Fallouts of the GERD Negotiations
Currently, the Water Diplomacy Discord is one of the top diplomatic challenges Ethiopia is facing. The implicit, and at times, explicit global diplomatic pressure is led by Egypt with Sudan as its accomplice. Egypt is using its geographical location as related to the Red Sea and the Suez
Canal (a global trade route b/n Africa/Middle East and Europe) and its sociopolitical influence in the Arab League and the Middle East to maneuver global powers towards her interest which has jeopardized Ethiopia’s position in global politics & diplomacy. Egypt’s geographical advantages of sharing international borders with Israel provides her a strong diplomatic advantage serving as a political bridge b/n the west & the middle east, and the Arabs & the Israeli’s. To be precise, its geography and Islamic socio-political influence in the Arab world has helped Egypt to create and sustain a strategic partnership with Israel, US, and the Europeans. With that note, the very perception of the Nile (Abay) being the main source of Egypt’s civilization and existence has helped Egypt to frame Ethiopia’s plan on sharing of the Nile Water as a grave national security threat, enormously investing its resources to challenge and weaken Ethiopia on the diplomatic front.
Historically, the Nile water has always been a sensitive issue in Egypt, strong enough to agitate and mobilize domestic sentiment which at times is used to divert internal socioeconomic and political pressures, on both sides of the aisle. Hence Ethiopia’s intention of utilizing the water for generating hydroelectric power is considered as tantamount to posing a dangerous threat towards the very existence of Egypt, which in essence is unsubstantiated and baseless. The Egyptian political elite deploys various means to prevent Ethiopia’s and other upstream countries’ rightful attempt to benefit from their God given rights to utilize the Nile water that sprouts and flows within their own territory; with the intent to uplift their citizens up from darkness and abject poverty. The Egyptians have mobilized possible legitimate & illegitimate diplomatic strategies – from exploiting standard diplomatic cables through carrier diplomats – to the use of paid lobbyists to influence the foreign policy approaches of influential countries (mainly, the US). They have also benefited from the backing of the Arab League and media outlets like AlJazeera that project a one-sided view of biased scholars to uphold and enforce Egypt’s interest in the process. Egypt has proved itself unwilling of making fair considerations in terms of understanding the precautions Ethiopia is undertaking to maintain and guarantee uninterrupted and undiminished water flow through openness for constructive dialogue in good faith
This diplomatic war waged by Egypt and it’s accomplice Sudan is the most ferocious one that Ethiopia is facing right now; in addition to Sudan’s recent injudicious military invasion against Ethiopia to implement their irredentist claim over Ethiopia’s sovereign land. The imprudent behavior Sudan is showing against Ethiopia is precipitated by Egypt’s unwavering support from behind, not to mention the recent global admiration and diplomatic allegiance the military wing of the Sudanese government is getting from the western world. Had this been the only diplomatic pressure Ethiopia is facing, it could have been probably solved without causing a significant hurdle. Regardless, the challenges Ethiopia is facing in this front has been handled by the Ethiopian government and people responsibly and carefully. Experts, scholars, government officials, and the public are doing their level best to defend and realize Ethiopia’s rightful interest while thoughtfully showing responsibility and sensitivity to the interests of the downstream countries. Had it only been the water diplomatic issue, one could have said that the first filling had solved ⅓ of the problem and now the second filling will make it to ⅔ and what remains is ⅓. Needless to say, the political crisis triggered by the Water Diplomacy deadlock is coupled with other diplomatic issues which has made Ethiopia’s challenges more complex. It shall also be noted that Ethiopia’s diplomacy in this arena has fallen short to efficiently galvanize the African [despite the wide support for Ethiopia’s ‘African Solutions for African Problems’ stance] and other nations, like South Korea, Cuba, Caribbean states and so forth that have strong historical and sociopolitical ties with the ancient nation; which they consider a beacon of hope and freedom. This being one of the reasons why Egypt has been solidifying military and political collaboration with African nations surrounding Ethiopia, namely Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and others; while Sudan approaches west Africa countries whom they share the Islamic Religion that is dominant in West Africa.
Failing to succeed as much as they desire, Egypt and the Sudan have allegedly been taking advantage of Ethiopia’s internal political crisis and backing disgruntled groups like TPLF and OLF ‘Shene’ both on the military and diplomatic fronts – fuming critics and opposition against Abiy Ahmed’s government. Yet, Ethiopia is handling the matter in the most mature and sober way possible deemed from its approach and measured reaction towards the mischievous Egyptian ‘diplomacy’ and the irrational, inconsistent and provocative behavior of the Sudan.
Interest-Based Diplomacy: Ethiopia’s Geopolitical Leverages:
The Red Sea & HOA politics
The national interest of the global powers like the USA, EU, UK, China, Russia, Turkey, Israel, India, Japan, and others is one of the parameters that simultaneously benefit and challenge Ethiopia in global diplomacy. The growing and increasingly visible presence of China in Africa has been a source of anxiety and concern for western geopolitical interests. This new reality has exposed the HOA region for proxy confrontation between western and estern superpowers. There are many more variables that can be included here. To mention but few, Africa being source of raw materials for many powerful economic countries, their interest in the continent is increasingly fundamental – especially now that the value of water is claimed to be as important as oil in the global stock market and the need for minerals under African lands for the IT and Military tech has grown all time high. Western powers can use water as a national security issue to trigger suspicion and instigate confrontations between neighboring countries in regions with hallmarks of dwindling access to fresh water. The vast population African nations have is also an incentive for increased diplomatic engagement with Africa, human resources being beneficial in terms of accessing cheap labour and increased military personnel (for global and regional peacekeeping operations). Ethiopia, having all the assets [natural and human resources] the rest of Africa have, in addition to being a pioneer in sementing African unity and, forming and hosting the OAU (now AU), and it influence in shaping the African political discourse [more specifically in the horn of Africa (HOA)]
- the global powers from West to East has always competed to win Ethiopia as their sole trophy in the geopolitically significant Horn of Africa.
With the exception of the Derg regime that was forced to stick with the communist bloc betrayed by the west that sided with Somalia’s Zaed Barre & the separatist insurgents in the north, and the TPLF- led – EPRDF regime that made itself of full service to the western powers who brought them to power while playing with the Chinese along the side, Ethiopia has always taken a neutral stance in global political affairs – thereby expanding its diplomatic reach on all fronts from Africa to Europe, from Middle East to the Carrebeans, and from the US to Russia, China, Japan, Korea and other Asian powerhouses.
Under Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has further strengthened its diplomatic ties with the Middle East who relied on Africa for food and water security – and port and military domination over the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb, while influencing the global political dynamics using their oil resource as a leverage. Similarly, Ethiopia has strengthened its diplomatic ties with China and Russia – whose growing economic and military influence in HOA countries [ET, ERI, SOM, DJI & SUD] & the rest of Africa is of immense threat to western [most particularly, US] interest in the region. The Ethiopian government, and the political elite of the country understands this well and consider the unjust and skewed diplomatic pressure from the west under the guise of ‘humanitarian concern’ in Ethiopia’s Tigray region with enormous suspicion. Nonetheless, the government has to find a way to preserve Ethiopia’s longstanding and remarkable diplomatic achievements in terms of building a neutral interest-based relationship, be it with the US, EU, Russia or China; so as to secure Ethiopia’s long-term and short-term interest in global and regional politics..
International Conflict Resolution (ICR) Diplomacy: The Threats of Irredentist Claim Over Ethiopia’s Sovereign Territory
This is one of the serious challenges that triggers disputes and belligerency with neighbors, namely Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Somalia, having dealt with a serious war with the first two. The irredentist element in the Ethio-Eritrean war that occured 2 decades ago costing hundreds of thousands of lives, however, is claimed to be coupled with other issues – mainly being the rivalry for domination in the HOA between EPLF (Eritrean regime) & TPLF [of Ethiopia]. The intertwining of such rival tendencies and personal despises between the leaders of both EPLF & TPLF has made the international conflict resolution diplomacy more challenging – with the presence of other international actors like Egypt and others making it more complex. Nonetheless, the border conflict with Eritrea was resolved on paper a decade or so ago, leaders of both nations signing to an international agreement – whose implementation was later challenged by the TPLF which sustained the “no peace no war” status quo as its strategy to secure its hegemonic rule in the HOA rather than safeguarding Ethiopia’s national interest. Thus Ethiopia and Eritrea have been in a no war-no peace stalemate for more than a decade, until Abiy Ahmed managed to break the deadlock in a successful International Conflict Resolution (ICR) diplomacy for which he won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Such diplomatic effort has bought Ethiopia a reliable partner in the HOA in this time of coordinated global diplomatic pressure catalyzed by the aligned force of Egypt, Sudan, TPLF, OLF and other Western and Middle East nations who have their own agenda/interest in the matter.
The important question here is, whether or not Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed and his administration will succeed in resolving the current border with Sudan, caused by the later’s ill-advised aggression of the formers sovereign territory in an effort to provoke Ethiopia for further military confrontation
- with the alleged backing and military support of Egypt. Sudan has repeatedly rebuffed Ethiopia’s welcoming diplomatic effort, perhaps emanating from a confidence boost by the ever increasing endorsement from ill intentioned west in the name of ‘political reform’ – who are rapidly and alarmingly turning hostile against the Ethiopian government. Added to these, the backing of the Arab League countries who are under Egypt’s political influence [which couples the matter with GERD], would make the matter even more complicated. Yet again, Ethiopia has endorsed a decoupling strategy and dealt with Sudan in a responsible manner – mitigating the possibility of full fledged armed confrontation to the best attainable level. However, the Ethiopian government should be able to make use of its diplomatic advantage, historical ties, sociopolitical influence and economic leverage it has in neighboring [DJI, SOM, ERI, & SOUTH SUD] and other African and non-African states to mount the diplomatic pressure on Sudan in order to amicably resolve the border issue.
Network & Influence Oriented Diplomacy: Exploiting Historical, Economic & Political Advantages
Network and influence oriented diplomacy has been at the center stage of Ethiopia’s diplomacy, especially during the reign of HaileSelassie I which is considered the “Golden Age” in Ethiopia’s diplomatic history. From championing freedom and independence in Africa, Ethiopia has marshalled alliances and deep sociopolitical influence with and over the black community worldwide. Ethiopia has lent her hand for humanitarian and military support when friendly nations were in despair and looking for help, be it African, Asian or European – to mention but few, Japan, South-Korea, Britain, Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Somalia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia and so forth.
Ethiopia’s leading role in the formation of OAU/AU, the League of Nation and United Nations, and adherence to international laws has fermented the nation’s lasting role for the establishment and sustained existence of global and regional governance – the foundations of international diplomacy. Such historical fact is among the many reasons why the Western powers observe Ethiopia as a threat to secure a lasting imperial hegemony in international politics & global capital accumulation. Such insecurity of the western powers is even more intensified by Abiy Ahmed’s bold leadership that aspires to the restoration of Ethiopia’s historical might and influence, seek African full ecopolitical independence and unity, and a developed and proud Ethiopian nation. Now Therefore, given the fact that such achievement on the side of Ethiopia will inevitably inspire the rest of Africa, on whose natural resources the west mostly relies to feed their people and advance their tech, military and other industries, the Ethiopian government is faced with immense diplomatic pressure more than ever – and need to proceed forward with a carefully analysed diplomatic approach that is aimed at expanding Ethiopia’s network and influence to survive such challenge – while finding a way to reconcile the nation’s interest with that of the western powers as we are better off making the global powers our friends than our enemies. In this time of unprecedented immense pressure, deploying effective and efficient diplomacy is of paramount importance.
It is a common feeling among Ethiopians that the government could have done a better job in this front by giving proper focus to its public relations and diplomatic undertakings. Needless to say, diplomacy of the twenty-first century requires adapting to the prevailing reality and tuning appropriate and fitting strategies to address the needs and deal with evolving challenges.
Foreign Aid Diplomacy: The Leverage of Traitors & Imperialists
Foreign aid is one of the key aspects that take front and center stage in Ethiopia’s foreign diplomacy, especially with the west. Besides the fact that it undermines Ethiopia’s position in global politics by leaving the fate of the nation under the blessing of the imperialists, such aid dependency has structured Ethiopia’s diplomacy with the west as – more or less – a ‘PAYCHECK’ diplomacy. This being perceived as the nation’s weakest link at the global stage, internal traitors and treasonous terrorists like the TPLF have taken advantage of it to bully Ethiopia into negotiating with them to resolve an armed conflict they recklessly started. Such conflict in the northern part of the country has been an increasing source of domestic socio-political, economic and security crisis, and mounting diplomatic challenges. One might argue that internal affairs of a country should not be the basis for external diplomacy. However, the current global political order operates under conditional diplomacy through the use of the major global financial institutions – namely the IMF & World Bank – and the UN and its agencies – who operate under the conditions of democracy, rule of law, capitalist orientation, and so forth [subject matters that are purely domestic]. This is one of the reasons why IR critics refer to the current global institutions as ‘Agents of Neocolonialism’.
Domestic unrests and conflicts have been tapped efficiently by external forces to advance their agenda using internal trojan horses and political entrepreneurs, who oftentimes consider themselves as defenders of group rights. And the fact that we are living in the era of social media, which is being used as an efficient tool to fabricate and spread alternative facts and disinformation rapidly has been another formidable challenge to the government, causing serious damage to Ethiopia’s foreign aid diplomacy. Preventing and properly managing internal unrests, effectively investigating the causes and triggers of incidents with serious political implication, holding instigators of violence accountable to the law of the land; and transparently & timely communicating the information to the Ethiopian people and to the international community have been real and visible challenges to the Ethiopian government is faced with. In effect, Ethiopia’s aid and strategic diplomacy with the west has been seriously jeopardized, in addition to the national economy that one way or another relies on foreign aid and loan.
Thus, It is a demanding task to seriously and efficiently prevent and manage internal conflicts – especially those driven by instigators whose anti-Ethiopian position is known to public – in order to prevent a diplomatic crisis of a kind that blocks the government’s long awaited socio-economic and political reform – and tarnishes the image of the nation globally. In addition, such much needed effort to prevent and manage internal divisions and conflicts will neutralize the conspiracies of Ethiopia’s historical enemies who work in tandem with internal traitors to cause more mayhem and unrest – through misinformation and disinformation; which demands adopting innovative, pragmatic and adaptive diplomacy to preserve the true image of Ethiopia in the global state.
Decoupling The Diplomatic Challenges: One Challenge At A Time
As shown in the figure the five diplomatic aspects that are coupled or associated, or connected needs to be decoupled as a pragmatic approach to address the contemporary diplomatic crisis in a more efficient manner.
Analyzing from a realist point of view, the five diplomatic aspects are interlinked in Ethiopia’s case. To begin with, the coupling of the GERD issue in the diplomatic front with the four other aspects is the easiest to discern. Sudan has crossed the Ethiopian border as bargain chip for the ongoing negotiation of the three countries on GERD, and as an attempt to mount military pressure on Ethiopia given the government’s full military focus to crackdown TPLF terrorists in Ethiopia’s Tigray. Global powers such as the US have aligned their interest with Egypt and Sudan as related to GERD Recalling President Trump’s speech in 2020, he suggested the Egyptians might hit GERD, after repeated attempts by his administration to meddle in the negotiation and bully Ethiopia failed. His administration cut security fundings for Ethiopia to prevent the successful accomplishment of GERD, which Ethiopians are building financing it themselves – with zero foreign funding Such undue and unjust pressure has also been impliedly endorsed by other Middle Eastern and Western Nations, allegedly UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia and so forth.
On a further note, the extension of the GERD diplomatic fallouts aligned with Ethiopia’s long standing network and influence with and on African nations, and the black race – Egypt, Sudan, the Arabs and the West is taking full advantage of the full blown diplomatic defeat Ethiopia is faced with regarding the TPLF instigated Tigray crisis. The western media and institutions that are usually criticized for their immense role in ensuring the hegemony of white supremacy and neocolonial imperialism have outrageously disgraced Ethiopia on the global political arena. At times, they have gone as far as claiming the committance of genocide, ethnic cleansing, rape and hunger as a weapon of war, and even worse – chemical attack; laying the ground work for military intervention. The US, however, has maintained its balance between TPLF’s aggressive diplomatic lobby and Ethiopian Gov’t diplomacy; exploiting the matter towards negotiating the assurance of its interest with the Ethiopian government [esp. related to China] under the threat of Sanction and further diplomatic isolation.
Concluding Remarks:
Now that decoupling is understood as dealing with the challenges one at time, it is the task of Ethiopian diplomatic community to examine whether or not – the diplomatic challenges shall be dealt with as interlinked as they are or decoupled in a manner that clearly sets Ethiopia’s short-term and long-term interests, and priorities. The challengers on the diplomatic front may maximize the gain of their interests by coupling many aspects together, so that they leverage Ethiopia on the aspects they prioritize in their respective national policies. Those who are standing for Ethiopian side, government or public, should understand the game and try to find ways to ease those diplomatic complexities. This is how in science and engineering complex problems are solved, at times. The same shall work for politics and diplomacy.
One way or another, Ethiopia is at an epochal juncture that requires careful and professional political and IR analysis to survive, or even thrive, from and within the contemporary diplomatic mess. This principle is used in science and engineering when the problems have several variables that are interlinked with each other. We are in the age of high scientific applications across different fields and the diplomatic community can benefit in learning and applying such wisdoms to find optimal solutions.
By Blen M. Diriba, Dejen Ras & Ghionawiw Bedilu