Crafting Ethiopia’s Economic Independence and Prosperity by Copying Military Strategy Thinking (Part Two)

8 mins read

Tsegaye Tegenu, Ph.D.
27-10-2021

In part one I discussed the use of military strategy thinking to resolve economic policy options, conflicts, and dilemmas at the macro level. Most of the time the policy recommendations include human capital development (based on endogenous growth model), export-led growth and liberalization (neoliberal model), green economy (environmentalist approach), sector growth (agriculture and industry), promotion of tourism, etc.

It is important to understand the tradeoffs when we make decisions or accept one of the proposed changes. If we institute a given policy suggestion to make things better in one respect, we are probably making things worse in other respects. There is thus a resource cost and society’s resources are scarce.

Military strategy thinking helps to prioritize so that one can do the right things at the right time. I used Let. General Abebaw Tadesse’s military strategy thinking to know the five hierarchical components used to identify characteristics and priorities of long-term economic prosperity strategy at macro levels. Based on my population growth pressure analysis framework and value, I suggest a one-size-fits-all strategy of “homegrown and bottom-up industrialization”. This integrative strategy has to support sub-strategies (pathways), which I described in the three-legged stool, with each leg of the stool an equally critical component in attaining the goal. Without one of the legs, the stool would fall.

In part one of my presentations, I tried to show how the macro-level strategy thinking of Let. General Abebaw Tadesse’s military helps us to solve policy choice problems and conflicts at the national aggregate level. While the big country-level thinking is important to bring an overall sense of mission, long-term objectives need also micro thinking, a detailed oriented plan, and a process for implementation. In this second part, I will discuss the military strategy thinking at the micro-level based on a speech given by His Excellency Gedu Andargachew, National Security Affairs Advisor to Prime Minister, and former Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister and President of Amhara Region. See the link ትንቢቱ ይፈጸማል፣ የትግራይ ወራሪ ሃይል ወሎ ላይ ይቀበራል : ገዱ አንዳርጋቸው ጥብቅ መልዕክት አስተላለፉ / Gedu Andargachew/ Ethiopia

Read Aloud:   Analysis – Why Ethiopia’s Freewheeling Regime does need a State of Emergency?

In his speech, Ato Gedu Andargachew started the discussion by summarizing the overall mission of the current war against the TPLF aggressor. He then explained the motives and structural composition of TPLF’s aggression forces. He listed and gave examples of the atrocities and robberies committed by the aggressor. In this respect, he is in line with Let. General Abebaw Tadesse military strategy thinking (components one and two of my part one summary). Both share the same strategic intent. His review of the characteristics and nature of the aggressor shows that an overall sense of mission shared by the audience is the first step in crafting the strategy implementation process. He asked the audience “are you ready to bury the enemy in the land he occupied”. When they replied yes, he asked them how.

His explanation focused on the various processes on how to fight back the human wave attack of TPLF against the Amhara people. He mentioned steps on how to efficiently mobilize and secure the local human manpower and resources to successfully overcome the aggression. Some of the actions and tasks include:

  1. Organizational Need: he said that our thoughts and actions are fragmented, it conflicts with one another, it is not led systematically and orderly along the same line. All want to revenge but do not listen to one another. All want to be leaders. He gave examples of spontaneous and mob actions that cost lives and resources. Local action groups, if not well organized they can be infiltrated by the enemy to be led to disaster. Hodgepodge campaigns and actions lead nowhere. He said actions without order and planned purpose eats themselves.
  2. Understanding division of labor and clear purpose in the allocation of resources. There are supporting missions and fighting missions. It is necessary to know who performs which task and the training, knowledge, and structure required to accomplish those tasks. Human wave attacks can only be thwarted and defeated by the national defense and special forces. It is therefore important that the youth join the defense forces in mass to scarify and bury the enemy in the land it occupied. It is only then we ensure our freedom and respect. The task of supporting the mission should be left to the old people.
Read Aloud:   Ethiopia's running camp 'in the sky'

Ato Gedu Andargachew brilliantly discussed the management and implementation of a military strategy at the local level. He presented case studies of unstructured efforts and underlined the importance of organization, planning, and leadership to coordinate the local people’s struggle against the human wave war of TPLF. The key to a successful strategy is not only an overall sense of mission and but also the management of its implementation.

I consider pervasive poverty and trap of low growth just as the human sea attack of TPLF. It is everywhere in the rural and urban areas attacking the defenseless population. To engage against local poverty there is a need for concentration of fragmented resources, specialization of production, local planning, public and private cooperation. My macro and micro-level strategy is “rapid industrialization by all means, everywhere and through big push”.

Further references on the economic application of Ato Gedu Andargachew’s micro-level military strategy thinking please see

How Regions can Develop in Ethiopia: The Need for a Paradigm Shift

Read Aloud:   Crackdowns on Qeerroo? Good Luck Intimidating the Tiger!

Youth Bulge in Cities and Towns, its Remedies

Reaching Critical Mass to Rapid Industrialization and Agricultural Fundamentalism in Ethiopia

 

5 Comments

  1. ኢትዮጵያ ቅድስት ሀገረ እግዚኣብሔር የሚለው ስያሜ አበቃለት፥ሕዝቧን እንደ ከብት የምታርድ፥ የአምላክ ቤተመቅደስ ሰውን ያለ አግባብ የምታረክስ ክርስትናን በማይቀበሉ ሰዎች መካከል የማይደግ አፀያፊ ሰይጣናዊ ድርጊት የምትፈፅም ሀገር ናት፥፥ካህናቶቿ በጥቅምና በዘረኝነት የተቃኙ የሚያገለግሉትን እና ያስተማራቸውን ሕዝብ የካዱ ናቸው፥፥ባጭሩ ሃይማኖት የገቢ ምንጭ ማስገኛ መተዳደሪያ ልማዳዊ የለትተለት ሥርዓት መገለጫ እንጂ አምላካዊ ህግ ና ፈቃድ የማይገለጥበት እንዲሆን ተደርጓል፥፥በሀገሪቷ ታሪክ ታይቶ የማያውቅ የጭካኔ ጥግ ሲፈፀም በ ሃያ ሰባት አመታት የኔ ወገን ሲገደል ንብረቴ ሲዘረፍ የት ነበራቹ የሚሉት ፈሊጥ ሰውንእንደ ከብት ለማረድ ምክንያት እየሆነ ነው፥፥ኢትዮጵያ እንኳን ሀገረ እግዚአብሔር ዓለማዊው ህግና ሥርዓት የማይከበርባት ሥርዓት ዓልባነት የሰፈነባት ሆናለች፥፥በጥንቆላ ና የዛር መንፈስ የተጠመዱ መንሳዊ መሰል ሰዎች የተናገሩትን በመስማትና በመቀበል ሕዝባችሁን ለጦርነት አትማግዱ፥፥ህውሓት ወሎ ላይ ይቀበራል የሚል ትንቢት አለ እያሉ ሊሂቃኑ ስልጣናቸውን ለማዳን ሕዝብ ለህዝብ እንዲጋጭ ሃይማኖታዊ ሽፋን በመስጠት ላይ ይገኛሉ፥፥ራሽሕንንና ቤተሰብህን አድን የብልፅግና ፓርቲ ካድሬዎችን ሥልጣን ለማስጠበቅና ከፍርድ ተጠያቂት ለመቤዥ ራሽንና ወገንህን ለአደጋ አታጋልጥ፥፥ልቦና ይስጥህ፥ማስተዋሉን ይሳልብህ፥፥
    It is not too late to save lives and bring PP cadres , enemies of entire ethnicties and enslaved by Eritrean dictator, to ICC.

  2. I liked reading this article just because it is well written in elementary language sans grammatical and spelling typos. Anyone can comprehend the author’s urgent message. But I was wondering if he had the chance to be present in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong around 1970’s and 1980’s. Okay forget about the 1970’s and how about the late 1980’s and 1990’s? In this article the authors sounds to me that he had the chance to be inside China especially in the manufacturing area. I’m talking about being involved in setting up factories and training workers in how to run machines. It left me saying hmmm!
    All in all such capable authors should be encouraged to keep writing on issues that matter to that gem of the colored that produced us all.

  3. Gedu is a useless politician. For 30 years he was part of the EPRDF and now he is part of EPRDF2.0 so what he says is poppycock. No solution will be brought about by Abiy, Gedu, Demeke et al they are part of the problem. No need to write a 2 part soliloquy. Solution is all inclusive dialogue without the EPRDF2.0/Prosperity at the helm.

  4. This author is always a good educator. Here,
    I am not sure if there can be a synergy between a military strategy and macroeconomic policy in Ethiopia. Perhaps this applies to countries like USA where the military-industrial complex drives growth and technological innovation. What Ethiopia needs is a good independent thinker that sees how the country can utilize its resources to develop. I dare to say that Ethiopia was in a good course of economic development before Abiy’s destructive war.

  5. Hopefully Amhara leaders have learned enough lesson. They have to stand for the interest of Amhara they represent. People are smart but patient. Never thing you are the smartest one because their is always someone smarter than you. Without your people you are nothing.
    Same thing as all Ethiopians: without your countrymen and women you are nothing. Stay with your people and grow together. Think big!! Big countries are rich and strong in many ways. Small countries do not have or provide the same opportunity and successes for its people!!!
    Hopefully this temporary challenge has taught every Ethiopian how staying together and strong will bring long-lasting peace, happiness and stability to all.
    The greedy, selfish, and servant of enemies who stood on the wrong side of history will live in shame forever.

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