Clear and Present Danger

By Jonas Tameru

It has been more than two years since Ethiopia announced its plans to construct the biggest hydro- electric dam in Africa, the Grand Renaissance Dam on the river Nile. This controversial project has from its initiation been a topic of debate among the three countries affected most by this project. Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Now however after the second year of construction came to an end, Ethiopia has commenced with the route diversion of the Nile in order to be able to begin the actual construction of the dam structure.
This fundamental step in the part of Ethiopia has alarmed the two other countries in the fact that Ethiopia is now in a position to actually follow through with its promise and construct the dam as planned. Therefore recently there has been much talk in Egypt and Sudan concerning the dam being built in Ethiopia. The Egyptian president even went further to call a national meeting with opposition parties in Egypt to discuss what action should be taken concerning the renaissance dam.
Although not officially backed by the Egyptian government, all the opposition parties suggested military action against Ethiopia as the primary solution to their problem. Alarming as it may sound this is not the only concern for our country should this remain the status quo. Today I am going to discuss what Ethiopia has to face in the near future if it continues to build the dam without reconsideration.
First of all the Eritrean president, through his representative has pledged allegiance with Egypt should Egypt decide to take any action on Ethiopia. This means that Eritrea has opened its doors for Egypt to attack Ethiopia through their borders, making them a double force for Ethiopia to defend from the north. This alone could bring significant impact on Ethiopia and its economy but let’s assume that Ethiopia can handle this without completely collapsing.
North Sudan with the independence of its southern brothers considers Ethiopia as the main force that drove the south to its independence and therefore considers Ethiopia an enemy although they may not admit it in public. And the fact that the dam is being constructed only 12 to 14 kilometers away from the Sudanese border makes it vulnerable to an attack from our Sudanese enemies at any time during or after the completion of the construction.
On the eastern border we have our friends from Somalia who through al-shabab will at any cost attack our country should they get the opportunity. The government in Somalia does not have the necessary resources or trained military to withstand the al-shabab militia and Ethiopia has withdrawn its soldiers from Somalia, giving al-shabab the freedom to revive from the heavy blows it took.
When looked at individually all the three threats are probably not as alarming to Ethiopia at this moment because the military might be in a position to face and overcome one of the three possible threats at a particular point in time. The real chaos comes when you combine all this threats to happen at once. That is what Ethiopia cannot take at all. And believe me all the four forces who have a stake in Ethiopia’s collapse being Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and al-shabab from Somalia, will join forces and collaborate with each other to collectively attack Ethiopia and burry it to the ground for once and for all.
My dear readers, to me this is more threatening than the Italian and British invasions that happened a century ago. But this time we shall not come out triumphant of the battle but rather share the fate of our neighbor Somalia for the coming 2 or 3 decades. I don’t know if the EPRDF has any strategy as to how it might have to deal with this possible threats or if it has chosen to ignore the facts and drive in to the fire blindly, but I fear the latter is the case with our government and it scares me to think of the inevitable destruction that we face all in the name of electricity. This is the “CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER” that is clouding the skies of Ethiopia so we better take shelter before it rains with thunderstorms.

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