Ethiopia Needs Long-term National Development Plan (Part Twelve, My Framework)

Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD

2024-06-22

Before presenting the promised long-term plan suggestions, I would like to provide some background on my proposal. What sets my suggestion apart from others? Reviewing the design problems of the ten-year development plan is one thing, but presenting an alternative proposal is another. What kind of studies have I conducted to support my claim that my long-term development plan is appropriate and relevant? As you know, a long-term plan results from interdisciplinary studies by experts and specialists from various sectors and fields. What qualities does my proposal have to warrant such a status? In this section, I will briefly explain the studies I conducted, the disciplines I consulted, and the framework I used to develop this suggestion and roadmap.

I have studied the effects and impacts of rapid population growth of the country for the past two decades. As you know the population of Ethiopia has increased more than fivefold since 1900. The population tripled between 1955 and the present. It has doubled since the early 1970s.  As of now, Ethiopia’s population is approximately 130 million. The population is expected to grow to 137 million by 2037 under a low fertility scenario. By 2050, the population could reach 190 million, a 60 million increase from today’s population, growing at an average rate of 2.2% per year.

You cannot ignore the implications of rapid population growth. There is an increase demand for resources (food, water, energy and housing). The economy needs to generate millions of new jobs to keep up with the growing labor force. Investing in education and vocational training is critical to develop a skilled workforce. It is necessary to expanding the healthcare services to meet the needs of a larger population. Upgrading and expanding transportation infrastructure is essential to connect people and markets. Migration-led urbanization has to be managed to prevent the formation of slums. Schools are needed to accommodate more students, and they require more teachers and facilities. Increased demand for healthcare services requires more clinics, hospitals, and medical professionals. Increased agricultural and urban development leads to deforestation and loss of biodiversity. Youth bulge creates fertile condition for conflicts and social unrest.

Studying the burdens of rapid population growth requires a multidisciplinary approach due to the complex and interconnected nature of the issues involved. I have extensively read about demography, economics, sociology, public health, urban planning, political science and economic geography to effectively study the burdens of rapid population growth. Within each discipline involved in studying the burdens of rapid population growth, there are multiple theories and perspectives that offer different lenses through which to understand and address these complex issues.

For instance, in demography, I have to study demographic transition theory to explain population changes through different stages. From economics, I have used theories which explain how population changes affect economic outcomes, such as labor supply, productivity, savings, consumption patterns and economic growth. I have to use sociological perspectives on life transitions and political science to study youth bulge and conflicts in the country. I have to use urban planning theories to advocate urban cluster, to reduce sprawl, improve efficiency in infrastructure provision and emphasize sustainable urban development.

Overtime, I have developed a multidisciplinary framework of analysis to understand the effects and impacts of rapid population growth in the country. Each theory and perspective offer valuable insights into the complexities of rapid population growth and informs policies and strategies aimed at mitigating its burdens. I understand the significance of interdisciplinary collaboration and integration of these theories in the formulation of comprehensive long-term national development plan. For details on the theoretical perspectives, research methods, data analysis techniques, modeling approaches, and case studies please search Uppsala University Library Database and Stockholm University Library database.

Finally, I want to emphasize that my entire effort in studying this issue is to transform population growth from a burden into a blessing. According to the Life Cycle Deficit Account System, the current population faces a $530 million consumption deficit that must be covered by households and the government, meaning consumption exceeds labor income. In other words, the total spending on goods and services (consumption) is greater than the income earned from working. This leads to a significant demand on resources and infrastructure.

Imagine the economic, social, and political consequences of rapid population growth. Continuous borrowing to cover deficits and shortages increases both household and national debt. High debt levels can result in higher interest rates as the government competes with the private sector for borrowing. Ongoing deficits force the government to cut spending on essential services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure, thereby deteriorating the quality and accessibility of these services. Reduced household and public spending exacerbate poverty.

Rapid population growth is a double-edged sword: it can have both favorable and unfavorable consequences depending on government policy choices and priorities. Therefore, I conducted an extensive policy review, root cause analysis, and examination of different future scenarios to identify economic strategies and policies appropriate for a country experiencing rapid population growth.

This all that I can say about the background studies and analytical framework I am using to propose a long-term development plan for the country.