Abiy Ahmed’s Strategic Errors and Their Impact on Ethiopia’s Sovereignty

It is not rocket science that Abiy Ahmed’s regime has depleted Ethiopia’s capacity and cApability to defend itself. Abiy believes wrongly that his Prosperity Party based on ethnic hegemony can resolve Ethiopia’s multifaceted problems through military force. This model is a zero-sum game with adverse consequences.

Abiy can demonstrate wisdom by ceasing all wars against the Ethiopian people; by withdrawing his massive army from the Amhara region; and by showing his regime’s commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts with all countries, especially members of the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopians and the rest of the world know fully that Ethiopia has suffered from a succession of wars since Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018. The two year war with the TPLF cost Ethiopia and the Ethiopian people hugely. This is followed by another costly war against Amhara. So, applying diplomatic pressure by the international community is vital today more than ever before.

The Abiy Ahmed model of governance “My way or the highway” is deepening Ethiopia’s crisis. Experts tell us that Ethiopia is heading towards a Yugoslavia-like collapse.

The way out, in my estimation, is political settlement. This requires a transitional government of national unity. For this to happen, Ethiopian stakeholders must agree on the modalities of a transitional government and a road map framing the alternative stakeholders have in mind.

Aklog Birara